Snooker: World Championships

[kevshat]

The top tournament of the year begins on Saturday. All on the Beeb as usual. Should be a belting 17 days with so many players in good form. Let it begin :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships One early outright for me before the big firms put their previews up. 1pt ew G.Dott to win World Championship 28/1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2) Decent odds on someone who has made 3 of the last 7 finals in this event, winning it on one occasion. That shows he knows how to peak for this event. I always like someone relatively fresh going into this event and Dott hasn't had a particularly hard season. Most of his exits have been expected and he's done what his draw expected so he's playing ok. QF, SF and QF of the 3 majors before China shows he's in decent nick and I don't think an early loss in China is always a bad thing. Dott can have no arguements with his draw sitting in the top half well away from the danger of that 4th quarter. I expect a decent run from Dott here in a tournament he clearly enjoys playing in and at 28/1 I'm very happy with the price.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Shatman / Russ / A.N.Other..... How would you rate Martin Gould's chances? In my limited Snookering knowledge I thought 100/1 was a bit big? I maybe wrong on all counts but I seem to think/remember, he's in reasonable form, has a good record at the worlds and prefers the longer format? Correct my incorrect assumptions! and any views would be appreciated before I throw some more money down the drain chasing a 'lively outsider' :spank

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships He's a player I like a lot. Whether memories of last year will come back to get him when he's back inside the Crucible remains to be seen. Especially as he could play Robbo in the 2nd round too. Certainly wouldn't rule him out but I hope he gets no further than the QF's should Dott progress that far ;).

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships I like Gould as well and he's certainly in decent form (was runner-up to Shaun Murphy in the PTC Finals last month). He beat Marco Fu 10-9 in the 1st round last year and plays him again this year, and I wouldn't be surprised by a similar outcome. Have to say, I don't see him beating either Robbo or Trump in round 2 though. For me, he's just a bit too attacking for the longer format and the memories of blowing an 11-5 lead over Robbo last year won't do him any favours if they meet up again. If Trump overcomes Robbo, then I think he has the game to see off Gould as well - they're both very attacking players, but Trump's performance in China last week suggested that he's learnt to adapt his style and develop a better all-round game. Something that Gould hasn't done yet. Having said all that, 100-1 could well be a decent tradeable price if he gets past Fu.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships In agreement with pretty much everything that has been said so far, and I think both Dott and Gould could do well. I'll come back to the outrights but am taking 2 other bets now. M.Gould, further progressing qualifier, 1pt @ 8/1 Betfred The more I look at the draw, the more I think we could see a record number of seeds going through. Matthew Stevens and Judd Trump would both be dangers in this market but have Allen & Robertson respectively. Allen is beatable but I do like the Irishman in the longer format whilst Robbo won't be giving up his crown that easily. Stephen Lee is another qualifier in form but has Higgins to overcome. This market, to me, can be narrowed down to Bingham, Gould and Perry. Gentleman Joe isn't the player he was whilst I don't like backing against Ebdon at the Crucible. That leaves me with Gould who is a very good player indeed and, in fact, beat Marco Fu here last season. Provided he gets over the Robbo experience, he looks cracking value at 8's here. No of winning seeds in 1st round, over 11.5, 10pts @ 5/6 Betfred Max bet for me. I just cannot see where this line has come from at all. The more I look at the draw this year, the more I fancy the seeds to progress. Decent qualifiers such as Trump, Stevens, Lee and Day all have tough draws and I don't see any progressing. The weaker seeds this year are Cope, Hendry, Ebdon, Fu and Walden, but I see just one of them losing. Cope has Andrew Pagett and even bottler Cope should come through that, whilst Hendry should have too much for Joe Perry. Ebdon vs Bingham could be a ding dong but Ebbo is not one to oppose here, whilst Walden, normally one to oppose, has a super draw, playing Rory 'I can't win on TV' McLeod. Fu is the one in danger as mentioned above. In all honesty, I can see 14 or 15 seeds making it through. Looking through the last 2 years only gives me more confidence in this bet; 4 seeds out last year and just 2 the year before. All of those 6 games were, in my opinion, the toss of a coin proving that genuine class normally prevails over these longer format matches. For the record, those 6 games were Steve Davis beating Mark King, Gould over Fu, Dott over Ebdon and Mark Davis over Ryan Day, all in 2010 and the 2 in '09 were Cope over Perry and Bond vs Ebdon. All in all, a very confident bet for me.

[poolidol777]

Re: Snooker: World Championships I think Mark Williams is the value here clearly full of confidence at the moment and scoring better than ever; the bottom half is brutal but if he gets past Ryan Day an poss Higgins in semi's he's good value @ 8/1 .

[MARTINLAURSEN]

Re: Snooker: World Championships I think skybet's price boost odds 4/11 for top 6 vs the field O Sullivan, Higgins, Ding, Robertson, Williams or selby to win. Now looking who can win the tournament from the rest of the field, you have murphy, carter, maguire, hendry, dott, ebdon, trump, fu and allen. Realistically i only see allen and trump from that list that could win. Trump had a great victory in the china open, but at this stage of his career i think the world championships is a step to far, and he faces a mammoth task overcoming robertson in the 1st round. allen i think is there now and i wouldnt write him off as winning a world soon. i think ill be staking big on this as i dont really see the tournament going to anyone other than higgins or ding, so the other 4 players skybet offer, offer me great back-up:beer

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships I'm sure the bookies have got this market totally wrong so I'm taking the following bet for massive potential reward. Highest seed knocked out in Round 1, all at SportingBet M.Allen, 1pt @ 28/1 P.Ebdon, 1.25pts @ 40/1 S.Hendry, 0.5pts @ 80/1 M.Fu, 0.5pts @ 250/1 R.Walden, 0.25pts @ 200/1 J.Cope, 0.25pts @ 250/1 No losing seed, 0.25pts @ 175/1 I just can't understand this market and feel that 4pts staked on this market is well worthwhile. If any of the 7 come in, we're guaranteed 29pts return but could be up to 63pts. As I've already alluded to, I see the top 10 all coming through their matches which, if they do, brings this bet in. I'm not sure what else to say other than I think SportingBet have priced this up all wrong. Of the 10 I'm opposing, their odds range from 1/10 to 4/7 so we need a 'shock' for this bet to fail. At combined odds of over 7/1, I'm more than happy to take that chance.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

I'm sure the bookies have got this market totally wrong so I'm taking the following bet for massive potential reward. Highest seed knocked out in Round 1, all at SportingBet M.Allen, 1pt @ 28/1 P.Ebdon, 1.25pts @ 40/1 S.Hendry, 0.5pts @ 80/1 M.Fu, 0.5pts @ 250/1 R.Walden, 0.25pts @ 200/1 J.Cope, 0.25pts @ 250/1 No losing seed, 0.25pts @ 175/1 I just can't understand this market and feel that 4pts staked on this market is well worthwhile. If any of the 7 come in, we're guaranteed 29pts return but could be up to 63pts. As I've already alluded to, I see the top 10 all coming through their matches which, if they do, brings this bet in. I'm not sure what else to say other than I think SportingBet have priced this up all wrong. Of the 10 I'm opposing, their odds range from 1/10 to 4/7 so we need a 'shock' for this bet to fail. At combined odds of over 7/1, I'm more than happy to take that chance.

Depends which side of bed Ronnie gets out of as well :spank

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

Depends which side of bed Ronnie gets out of as well :spank

He's 50/1 in the market too, so could add him in too if you like:ok

[piobhan]

Re: Snooker: World Championships On the first round games do you see any value in doing a large accumulator of picking say 12-16 winners?? :unsure

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

On the first round games do you see any value in doing a large accumulator of picking say 12-16 winners?? :unsure

There's never value in accumulators of 12-16 winners. If I was a bookmaker I'd take your bet every time because the chances of you winning are incredibly remote.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Hello all, some cracking write-ups in here - good luck to everyone :ok I'll take one from either side of the draw who should hopefully give me a run for my money. :hope 1pt Win Shaun Murphy 16/1 Stan James Murphy is a bit overlooked I think mainly because he's not spectacular and doesn't tend to blow players away like Ronnie can do. He's a course and distance winner and has that ability that nearly all world champions need at some stage during the event to grind out a result when not playing their "A" game (something John Higgins has done many times over the years). He's the kind of player who'll win his games 10-7, 13-10 etc but when the games are tight, he has great bottle. I'm usually not too bothered about recent form where Murphy is concerned becuase he saves his best for Sheffield but his recent form has actually been better than usual leading up to the event winning the Players Tour Championship in March, and reachin the last 4 of the UK Championships and China Open. 1pt Win Ali Carter 25/1 Stan James Ali Carter is probably an under achiever but has played well here before and I think perhaps has learned over the last few years to tough it out when the chips are down. He's no longer the young kid on the block and now could be the time to start delivering what his talent deserves. He's been in a final here and lost in the last 4 last year to the eventual winner. He's in the tougher half of the draw but at the price, I think he's worth a bet. Shaun Murphy v Ali Carter final 80/1 Corals (0.5pt) I'll also have a small bet at 80/1 for a Murphy v Carter final, a very fair price in my opinion, in what must be one of the most open championships in recent years. I can often remember seeing 6/4 favourites in the Davis/Hendry/O'Sullivan dominated eras. The current favourite is trading at 5/1 (John Higgins). Good luck all, should be a good tournament. :ok

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Looking back over recent years at the Crucible, a qualifier has reached the semi-final stage in 5 out of the last 6 years (Dott in 2010, Perry in 08, Selby in 07, Fu in 06, and Murphy & McCulloch in 05). With this in mind, I did wonder if there was any value to be had on the quarter markets, but it's unfortunate that probably the 3 strongest qualifiers - Trump, Lee, & Stevens - have all been handed pretty grubby 1st round matches. Realistically, Gould is the only other one I might have considered but, like I said earlier, I don't see him getting past either Robbo or Trump in round 2. Just the one outright for me: 1pt - Mark Williams to win the World Championship @ 9.6 with Betfair Like most of us, I could probably make a case for at least half a dozen players winning the title, but I think Williams has by some distance got the easiest path to the semi-finals of any of the front-runners. Ryan Day first up isn't ideal but, despite his recent back-to-back wins over Ronnie, I still think Ryan is some way short of his best form and doesn't win enough frames in one visit to seriously trouble his opponent here. From there, Williams would face Cope/Pagett and then Allen/Stevens/Maguire/Hawkins for a place in the last 4. Again, there's some decent names in there but if Williams brings something like his top form into the tournament, I can't see any of them beating him over 25 frames. Allen has good pedigree at the Crucible, but has well documented problems away from the table and hasn't shown his best consistently this season. Maguire is solid but still struggles against the very top players. So, if it all goes to plan, then MJW should be pitching up in the semi-finals fresher than most, giving me 17/2 in a four way shoot-out for the title. Plenty could go wrong before then of course, but I think this is decent value on a player who could end the season as world number 1.

[Evertonboy]

Re: Snooker: World Championships As I have limited snooker knowledge, I have kept it simple and plumped for players who have performed well at the crucible in the past, have a decent world ranking, and on the bare results seem to be playing well in recent weeks. Which leaves me with following (Please note these are intended to trade as oppose to sticking it out until the end - I work in the industry and will have the opportunity to watch most games): Mark Selby Ali Carter (Was a choice between him and Junhui but opted for carter as Junhui is in the same quarter as Selby) Shaun Murphy John Higgins I also intend to try and LAY both players at odds on during the in-frame markets, and possibly even the match market

[MARTINLAURSEN]

Re: Snooker: World Championships What do people think of Mark Allen's chances? I see value of 20/1, as an each way shout. A very very good player who has been knocking on the door for a while now.....

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Don't like his chances myself. I can't see past Williams in that section. 1pt P.Ebdon to win 2nd Quarter 16/1 Sportingbet This is a pretty insulting price on a former champion who can still cut it at this level. I know he's got Ding and Selby in this section but neither of those are unbeatable and by their standards neither have particularly good records here either. Ebdon had a cracking tune up for this tournament in China where only the eventual winner beat him in the quarter finals. After his match with Robertson there, Robertson posted on twitter that Ebdon was at his very best in the match which says enough for me. Ebdon always aims to peak for this event, has the mental stamina required to win the thing let alone make the semis of it and although he has a tricky opener in Bingham, I think he'll be quite happy with his draw, certainly in comparison to some anyway. Ebdon's like a red wine stain at this place - a bastard to get rid of - so at 16/1 I'm happy to be on Ebbo to win the 2nd quarter of the draw.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships A couple for the morning matches on Saturday. 5pts N.Robertson vs J.Trump - Over 16.5 frames 10/11 Betfred 3pts N.Robertson vs J.Trump - Over 2.5 centuries 5/4 Skybet I'm really looking forward to this opening match of the tournament. We've got two of the heaviest scorers in the game on show here and I think we'll see a barrel load of big breaks. Trump made 3 tons in winning the China Open final while we know what Robbo can do. Although Robbo hasn't been in the greatest form in 2011 he's defending his title here and knows he's got a stinker of a draw so I'm certain he'll be in tip top nick for this match. With both playing so well I think the chances of either running away with this one are pretty remote. 10-7 or closer either way sees us in with the total frames line and I really believe this could go all the way let alone 10-7. I full expect at least 17 frames which will be enough for the frame line and should be plenty of time to get the 3 tons we require as well.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Couldn't agree more on Ebdon, Kev. Good luck. I'm going to take one more on the tournament bets before getting stuck in to the match bets. S.Murphy to win World Championshp, 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (1/2 odds 1-2) On paper, looks to be in the quarter of death but I like Smurf's chances over the next 17 days and his price is reflective of what looks a tough draw. Shaun ain't the fastest start but Marcus Campbell is beatable but then it gets tougher. Ronnie next, if he gets his 'head' on, and then Higgins but I'm sure he can prevail over this longer format. Murphy is hard to beat here and comes off the back of such decent form. Reached the semis in the China and won the PTC finals event so is clearly going well. His WC form is good too. Since winning it in 2005, he's reached the final once, semis once, quarters twice and last 16 once, losing to Carter twice as well as Higgins, Selby and Ebdon. From what I've read, seems pretty fired up for this and I'll take him to go well in the final event of the season.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships One for me from the morning matches. N.Robertson (-2.5 frames) to beat J.Trump, 3pts @ 6/5 Stan James The champ versus the young pretender. On paper, this is going to be close but I actually think the Aussie will win this quite comfortably. Since winning the World Open in late Sept, he's been in pretty shocking form but the return to the scene of his finest hour will almost certainly change that. On his day, he's destructive and can be virtually unplayable and he'll have put in plenty of practice for today. My issue is actually with his opponent. Flatters to deceive all too often but proved he does have the game when winning the last event, the China Open. However, I think over confidence will be a factor and I've read one or two things that back this up. Only the 2nd time he's reached the venue and that will also be a contributory factor, I feel. Prefer to back Judd over the shorter format too so I'm sweet on the Aussie's chance here and will back him to win no worse than 10-7 at odds against.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Onto the afternoon. A.Carter vs D.Harold, over 16 frames, 3pts @ 5/4 Bet365 I'll take the overs on the frames here with a couple of factors in our favour. Firstly, the Captain is generally a slow starter and needs a good few frames to get into a rhythm. Add to that the fact that Dave Harold is a real grinder and will be difficult to scrape off the table, then Ali may just struggle to find a rhythm full stop. Harold is in a decent bit of form too, reaching the last 16 at the Welsh and has already run Carter close once this season, losing 5-3 in the Shanghai. The only comfortable opener Carter's had this season was in the China Open, beating Bingham 5-1. His other openers have finished 5-3, 6-9, 5-6, 5-4 and 4-3. Those stats favour a close one today and I'll go for 10-7 or greater either way. M.Williams vs R.Day, under 11.5 50+ breaks, 5pts @ 5/6 Paddy Power This line looks a tad high to me. Firstly, there's going to be a lot of pressure; a first round match at the Crucible is never easy. Then we have to assume that this one will go the distance if we're going to get anywhere near this line. I also took a look back at their respective first round matches last year; Williams won 10-5 against Campbell but hit just 4 50 breaks whilst Day lost 10-8 and hit just 3. Basically, that's 7 50's in 18 won frames. So, even if we go the distance, we're going to need such massive improvement to bring this bet in. I've also watched a bit of the Robbo/Trump match, 2 fantastic break builders who are both struggling too. Think this is a nice bet.

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships One for me this afternoon - I'm living dangerously by opposing Russ. :unsure 2pts - Ali Carter (-3.5 frames) to beat Dave Harold @ 2.0 with Betfair Keeping stakes small here, but I think there's good mileage in Carter to prevail 10-6 or better in this match. Harold has certainly improved on last season, where he only won one match all year, but he's only made 3 appearances at the Crucible in the last decade and that could count against him here. Shaun Murphy battered him 10-3 on his last appearance in 2008 and I don't think Dave scores heavily enough these days to run the top players close over longer distances. Carter was in danger of having a poor season after his Shanghai win back in September, but he's picked it up in the last 2 ranking tournaments, reaching a semi and a quarter-final, and he has a decent pedigree at the Crucible in recent years. I think he'll be too strong for Harold here and should pull away to win quite comfortably in the 2nd session.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Awful start:$. However, good start for others so well done:clap. 1 for the morning match. D.Junhui vs J.Burnett, over 15.5 frames, 5pts @ Evs Coral I really think Burnett's chances here have been written off a little too much. He's a pretty good match player, as shown when reaching the final of the Shanghai losing to Ali Carter there. Hasn't done an awful lot since but recorded good wins of Wenbo & Wattana to get here, and saw off Ford & Jimmy Robertson 4-0 in qualifying for the Welsh Open 2 months back. Ding has been in pretty good form lately, reaching 2 quarters and a semi since winning the Masters back in January. However, has never really cut it in the pressure atmosphere of the Crucible. 4 appearances here; in 2007, he lost to Ronnie 10-2 in the first round and has only made the last 16 in the last 3 years. His first round results in each of those read 10-9, 10-8 and 10-1. Last years win was a pretty easy one but his opponent that day, Stuart Pettman, was awful. Burnett won't be that bad, I'm sure, and he should do enough to take 6 frames off Ding here.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Just lay everything I back. Never been so poor:loon. Not giving up yet though.... S.Hendry (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Perry, 5pts @ 10/11 William Hill I like Hendry here. Despite coming towards the end of his career now, he's still a top drawer player at best and still loves this venue. Not lost here in the 1st round since 2006. He's been in pretty decent nick too recently, hitting a maximum not long ago. Not lost in the opening round of an event since the Shanghai and I expect his record of 1st round successes to continue here. Also gave Perry a pasting 4-0 at the Welsh Open 2 tournaments ago too. Perry's a consistent player but isn't as competitive as he used to be and I'll take Hendry to prevail here no worse than 10-8.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships First bet for me, opening up with a strong selection to start off. Hope I don't catch what you've got Russ, although the seeded players are going well, bar robbo. S.Hendry -1.5 Frames v J.Perry @ 10/11 >William Hill 8pts Not much to add here, both are these have been sliding down the ranks in recent seasons but I like Hendry in this. He has a strong record here obviously but even in recent years he has managed to get past this first round match. This is a tough match for Perry, who has been struggling a lot with his snooker. Hendry recently defeated Perry and over a longer format I like him even more to come through, anything from 10-8 or better brings this in.

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Early days yet Russ - it'll come good. :ok 3 points - Stephen Hendry to beat Joe Perry @ 1.7 with Betfair I'm not confident enough to take Hendry on the handicap here. His last 2 victories in the longer format have been 10-9 against Zhang Anda in the 2010 Worlds and 9-8 over Jimmy White in the UK Championship. Both those wins suggest that if this one does go down to the wire, then Stephen has still got the bottle to deal with a pressure situation. I'm not so sure the same can be said of Joe right now, particularly in the pressure-cooker environment of the Crucible. For me, the only way Perry can win this match is if he gets off to a flier and takes a decent lead out of the first session. All the recent evidence suggest that Hendry is the stronger starter though and his 4-0 victory over Joe in the Welsh Open earlier this year will be a nice little confidence boost.

[fishy25]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Dw Russ mate you'll bring it back, think everyone who follows these forums knows that. I'm taking one today and it's the same bet as you so let's hope it sparks a comeback ;) Stephen Hendry vs Joe Perry- Hendry -1.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Like Hendry in the early rounds this year and as Russ mentioned, his history with this place is remarkable. 7 times a winner, 2 runner ups and 12 semi appearences to go with it shows his fondness for the Crucible. Okay he may not be the player he once was, but he's still a class act when on form, shown through his 147 back here in 09 and another maximum in the Welsh Open. He beat Perry 4-0 then and in his early rounds, Hendry is quite a quick starter in terms of most. His last two tournaments, in China and also Wales, he whitewashed his first round opponents on both ocassions. I'd expect to play even better in Sheffield given his affection and take this one by at least a couple of frames.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Aye chin up mate, still early days yet :ok. One for me tonight. 4pts D.Harold (+8.5 frames) to beat A.Carter 4/5 Stan James Dave Harold goes into tonight's 2nd session with an 8-1 defecit and any hope he had of winning the match has gone but I still think he can take another frame home with him. He scored in every frame in yesterday's opening session which means he's had the chances to be more competitive. Now that the pressure if off I expect him to capitalise on a chance more. He isn't the kind of guy to be reckless and just get it done with as quickly as possible. He'll knuckle down, still play his usual tough game but with a bit of pressure off the cue can go through with a bit more freedom. Carter scored quite well in the opening session but he only won one frame in one visit so I expect Harold to get a chance in the first two frames of the evening session. His 92 break at 8-0 down yesterday pretty much emphasises what I've said about how he'll carry on trying and knuckle down so at 4/5 when this is 1/2 in places, I'm happy to take Dave to double his frame tally this evening.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships One for tonight. M.Williams (-4.5 frames) to beat R.Day, 4pts @ 11/10 Boylesports I like Williams tonight. Currently leading so needs to win another 4 for the loss of no more than 2, and I think he'll cover this. Generally a fast starter, he proved that yesterday by going 5-1 up. In fact, I feel Ryan Day was a little flattered by the scoreline he exited the first session with. The first frame may just be pivotal as, if Day loses, it's almost certainly curtains. MJW has been in fine fettle and, in the main, he's been finishing frames off really well. Odds against looks big as this is odds on in places so I'll take MJW to take this 10-5 or better.