Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread

[Zenyatta]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

Depends what you use as your base line You could use 593 as your base line and end up with some ratings in the 600s..........if you wanted to Richard seems to use 150........... I use 96

I try and use a rating of 115 as my baseline, a 115 horse can hit a good time and is listed class. The Official handicapper uses a system something like this. The bigger the rating you ascribe the bigger margin for error. But like you state everyone does it differently.

[Trotter]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

I try and use a rating of 115 as my baseline, a 115 horse can hit a good time and is listed class. The Official handicapper uses a system something like this. The bigger the rating you ascribe the bigger margin for error. But like you state everyone does it differently.

I expect we're pretty much on the same scale.........I use 96 because I mainly stick to the all weather and when i started i worked out that the best races on the AW are generally class 2 handicaps and a 96 rated horse should be competitive in class 2 handicaps............ i wish I'd just started with 100 for simplicity's sake ...............:lol

[Zenyatta]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

I expect we're pretty much on the same scale.........I use 96 because I mainly stick to the all weather and when i started i worked out that the best races on the AW are generally class 2 handicaps and a 96 rated horse should be competitive in class 2 handicaps............ i wish I'd just started with 100 for simplicity's sake ...............:lol

Sounds like we think alike, on the AW I do use a baseline of 100, only because theres only 4 courses and the AW horses are moderate.

[Gingertipster]

Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS

world domination won his maiden by 3 lengths easy yes ....but nathaniel totally destroyed his and won by 9lengths on the bridle so how can you say world dominations run was better ?

I don't think I did say World Domination's run was better, but I do now. ;) Nathaniel destroyed his maiden, but all maidens are not the same. Nathaniel won a 3 runner race at Haydock, for which he started at 1/20. E xpected to win it by a long way and so he did, with little to beat. Though granted, he did it well. Also had two runs (as a two year old) prior to winning, so had experience. So although I can see Nathaniel improving a bit more, possibly even enough to win the Vase (depending who he's up against, Sea Moon might give him a good race); can't really see him winning the Derby. World Domination won on his racecourse debut. A maiden which usually works out to be one of the best 3 year old maidens seen all year. My racing pals and I were talking paddock-side what a really good looking individual he is. However, not just "green", he was cabbage-like; with such horses they usually come on enormously for the experience. Yet sauntered clear of a good field (compared to most maidens). We were in no doubt we'd seen a Group 2, possibly a Group 1 winning animal. Though he is favourite and too short to back now. Nathaniel is 28/1, so wouldn't like to put you off Richard. May be he is worth a stab in the dark. Certainly bred for a Derby. Dam Magnificent Style won the Musidora and is by stamina influence Silver Hawk. I backed Nathaniel's half sister Playful Act for the Oaks once (won Fillies mile at 2 and Lancashire Oaks at 3). She was by Saddlers Wells, sire of Nathaniel's sire Galileo. So bred on the same lines.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) yes sorry ......i have adjusted my scale to 150 to allow for big deviances in the weights and ratings a 150 on my scale would be approximate to standard on the course but i also adjust on the average cruising speed of the horse in his/her races as some horses can easily maintain a high cruising speed and others can only travel at a lower speed and seem to constantly achieve this speed not matter what race they are in so i give them a slight allowance based on this i.e i rated one horse who had a rating of 150 and constant speed of say 27.31 mph and then another horse at 150 who consistently travelled at 28.3 mph if both were progressive i would give the latter a 2lb allowance....i work this out from the winning race times at all tracks

[richard-westwood]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) with regards to nathaniel .....its a complete shot in the shot .......he has done nothing what has been asked of him and is now totally unexposed .....when he runs in the vase tomorrow he could flop and everyone will say "see we told you he was crap" ,on the other hand he could come out and run +1.00 on the standard which would mean hes the only horse in the country to do that over 12f and would warrant fav status for the derby (if that was to happen and he were cut to say 5/1 ,id definately lay off most of the bet and keep just a bit back for myself as a bonus in case he won ),if i can possibly check out of the derby tomorrow with an instant profit before the race has even run then im going to take it

[richard-westwood]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

The RP standards are wrong (576 time Ive said this so apologies). :drums You cant compare a standard time for a 7f race (Goodwood as a 2yo) and a 10f race (York) as a 3yo) on two dfferent courses when a horse is two then when hes three. The Dante he lost to the future Irish Derby Winner. He smashed the track record and the Derby time record at Epsom, so he can not have been that bad at two. When you're getting ratings in the 150s on the flat something is wrong.

when did you say the standards were wrong ?:tongue2 lol ......actually i did hear you and although i dont agree that all the standards are wrong ,it would be wrong for me not to at least consider the possibility of restricting my ratings to say the grade 1 and 2 tracks as those standards are probably more accurate but that will restrict my betting by 50 % at least so im not sure ,or maybe just giving more "sway" to ratings achieved on grade 1 or 2 tracks ....its a possibility i should look into

[richard-westwood]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) can i also clarify workforce was on a steep upward curve prior to winning the derby i think it was some thing like 110 ,150,180 on my scale (breaking the course record with the latter ) the horse he ran against was about 165 i believe in beating him in the dante before going on to win the irish version so this is what im talking about ......any horse thats in the 150 area is capable of going on to win the derby ......no matter where they achieve it ,especially if they are a progressive type and even more so if they have pedigree and thats what we should be looking for over the next few weeks because the winner will show his hand soon

[richard-westwood]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) naturally i will watch all the trials and post up the last 3 ratings for each the main horses as they become apparent so as we can see any potential curve and hopefully narrow down the field to the winner

[Zenyatta]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

when did you say the standards were wrong ?:tongue2 lol ......actually i did hear you and although i dont agree that all the standards are wrong ' date='it would be wrong for me not to at least consider the possibility of restricting my ratings to say the grade 1 and 2 tracks as those standards are probably more accurate but that will restrict my betting by 50 % at least so im not sure ,or maybe just giving more "sway" to ratings achieved on grade 1 or 2 tracks ....its a possibility i should look into[/quote'] I'm just pointing you towards the path of "speed ratings" enlightenment. Thinking of just using speed ratings from Grade One and Two tracks is an excellent way forward. Obviously because a better class of animal runs at the better tracks and the better tracks obviously hold the better races, IE Group races. I started speed ratings 20 odd years ago and went through all the stages you are going through now, but if I just told you were you wrong, you would learn nothing. You're 85% of the way to Speed Ratings bliss. Just playing Devils advocate.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) At a massive price ('cos I like to find huge priced losers :rollin), Genius Beast could run well. Think he's about 66's as things stand, and I'm sure Godolphin may well end up with better hopes, but this one has form linked in with some of the best and looks to be improving. Was 5 1/2l behind Frankel on debut but the ground was soft which unsuited him. Then ran in the Picture Editor/Nathaniel race to finish 3rd (beaten 1 1/4l). Naturally you'd say he has quite a lot to find on that, but anyway... Went on to beat a nice sort in Purification (won easy since) again on ground unsuited (pulling 7l clear of Sadlers Risk, who beat Sea Moon on the latter's debut). The step up in trip is going to be key to this one. His dam thrashed a Derby Oaks field, and also won the Prix Vermeille. Plenty of stamina on his dam's side in general. Returned to the track with an easy win of a Group 3 over 10f ahead of useful yardsticks Measuring Time and Auld Burns (rated 104/105). That was on his seasonal reappearance so should come on for that, and also the step up to 12f. Certain to go up higher than a mark of 110 on that evidence, given he's going to improve further, and I just think this horse could be a touch overpriced.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

At a massive price ('cos I like to find huge priced losers :rollin)' date=' [b']Genius Beast could run well. Think he's about 66's as things stand, and I'm sure Godolphin may well end up with better hopes, but this one has form linked in with some of the best and looks to be improving. Was 5 1/2l behind Frankel on debut but the ground was soft which unsuited him. Then ran in the Picture Editor/Nathaniel race to finish 3rd (beaten 1 1/4l). Naturally you'd say he has quite a lot to find on that, but anyway... Went on to beat a nice sort in Purification (won easy since) again on ground unsuited (pulling 7l clear of Sadlers Risk, who beat Sea Moon on the latter's debut). The step up in trip is going to be key to this one. His dam thrashed a Derby Oaks field, and also won the Prix Vermeille. Plenty of stamina on his dam's side in general. Returned to the track with an easy win of a Group 3 over 10f ahead of useful yardsticks Measuring Time and Auld Burns (rated 104/105). That was on his seasonal reappearance so should come on for that, and also the step up to 12f. Certain to go up higher than a mark of 110 on that evidence, given he's going to improve further, and I just think this horse could be a touch overpriced.

Seemingly more like 33's/40's actually. Al Zarooni said they were unsure he'd go on the quick ground at Sandown which surprises me. Didn't really look at home on soft ground previously, and Kingmambo's have a good record on quick surfaces.

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) 0.25 pt win Treasure Beach @ 430.18 average Betfair Runs at Chester tomorrow, and is a massive price for the Epsom Derby. He took a while to get going as a 2 year old, but this is a horse that needs further, and 1m 4f will bring improvement. Wasn't disgraced in the Royal Lodge where he was unlucky in running. Wouldn't have beaten Frankel, but I don't think there is anything of Frankel's ability in this Derby, and Treasure Beach is too big. Interestingly, despite the inadequate trip, the Galway win comes out very favourably on my ratings.

[richard-westwood]

Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS

Why do you think Nathaniel is better than World Domination ? Nathaniel was beaten by Frankel on debut, but I would not read too much into that, then he was beaten by Frankels pacemaker Picture Editor next time out. At three Nathaniel won a £2900 conditions race at odds of 1/20, Derby winners are made of better stuff. World Domination will improve for his first run and is out of an Oaks winner, its madness to compare him with Nathaniel. I havent got a clue what will Win this years Derby yet, but I guarantee it wont be Nathaniel.

after that effort (approx 85) neither of these that ran today (nathaniel or treasure beach ) will be winning the derby i think

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

0.25 pt win Treasure Beach @ 430.18 average Betfair Runs at Chester tomorrow, and is a massive price for the Epsom Derby. He took a while to get going as a 2 year old, but this is a horse that needs further, and 1m 4f will bring improvement. Wasn't disgraced in the Royal Lodge where he was unlucky in running. Wouldn't have beaten Frankel, but I don't think there is anything of Frankel's ability in this Derby, and Treasure Beach is too big. Interestingly, despite the inadequate trip, the Galway win comes out very favourably on my ratings.

Should get a free bet out of that now :ok Currently 44.0 to back, but shortest lay price is 250. Last price matched is 42 though, so sure a lay at 50 would get snapped up tonight when those at work look through the day's results

[Stevet1859]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) The Derby: Pour Moi 1pt win 20/1 William Hill It might be a strategy to have a point on Pour Moi, come June that could be a big price. He may not even run, however it would seem highly likely that his owners would surely come to Epsom if Pour Moi is fit and well. At the moment the two market leaders have lots of potential and if either World Domination or Carlton House wins the Dante well next week they will go off favourite for the Derby. At the time of writing though, Pour Moi is a Group 2 winner and is four times the price. Add in Andre Fabre, who is about as good as it gets as a trainer, and Pour Moi looks worth an interest.

[mowgli77]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) Recital back out tomorrow, had drifted out to about 14's after flopping last time but now in at 8's after Frankel was taken out of the betting. O'Brien uses this trial for his best horses and both High Chaparral and Galileo won this before taking the Derby. It has to win in style tomorrow to be classed as a serious Derby contender. Looking forward to seeing Carlton House take on Seville and World Domination next week, what a race that looks to be. :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) I think Recital was given a poor ride LTO and he is a worthy fav this time. I was told to keep an eye on Memphis Tennesse last year and after his Dundalk win he may create a surprise at 12s tomorrow. Maybe not Grp 1 winner but has a bit of class about him apparently

[fintron]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) Backed Native Khan at 50.0 before his comeback win in the Craven and laid it back off this morning at at 19.0 and 20.0 for what is effectively a free bet at 30/1, albeit to a small stake. On Mowgli's advice, have also had a little bit on Recital ahead of today's run.

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) 1 pt win Recital @ 10/1 Paddy Power Actually took this in the early hours of yesterday morning, but was too tired to post it up. The Ballysax this year is looking like a pretty decent renewal, and it comes out very favourably on the clock. Both the winner and the 5th have won since, and I am confident Recital was the moral winner that day. He heads to the Derrinstown trial today on the back of that, and I am confident that he will take all the beating. Should that be the case, I think the 10/1 for the Derby will look generous.

[TheRat]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) Backed the Channon horse for the Oaks at 14s EW. Was very impressive yesterday and could be more to come. Now it is the 100% intended target looks like the value in the race

[mowgli77]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

1 pt win Recital @ 10/1 Paddy Power Actually took this in the early hours of yesterday morning, but was too tired to post it up. The Ballysax this year is looking like a pretty decent renewal, and it comes out very favourably on the clock. Both the winner and the 5th have won since, and I am confident Recital was the moral winner that day. He heads to the Derrinstown trial today on the back of that, and I am confident that he will take all the beating. Should that be the case, I think the 10/1 for the Derby will look generous.

If it wins and wins well today I can see it going 5-1 for the Derby at least and then they will reassess the market after the Dante on Thursday depending on what wins, what runs well and what looks likely to go off as Derby favourite. Do you think Recital or Seville is O'Brien's first choice? I've taken smaller each way bets on Native Khan, Casamento and Sea Moon at decent prices but had plenty on Carlton House at 12-1 and Recital at 10-1. Could have a good hand going into the Derby. :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) Would he have sent Recital to the Dante is he was 1st choice? Maybe

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

If it wins and wins well today I can see it going 5-1 for the Derby at least and then they will reassess the market after the Dante on Thursday depending on what wins, what runs well and what looks likely to go off as Derby favourite. Do you think Recital or Seville is O'Brien's first choice? I've taken smaller each way bets on Native Khan, Casamento and Sea Moon at decent prices but had plenty on Carlton House at 12-1 and Recital at 10-1. Could have a good hand going into the Derby. :ok

Not sure what their first choice is, and I don't know if they know either to be honest. I think Seville's 2nd in the RP trophy represents the best form of the 2, but haven't seen anything yet as to whether he has trained on. Wouldn't back him at this stage either, as he has to be vulnerable first time out against World Domination and Carlton House .... Would be of interest if he got beaten and drifted though perhaps. Not normally a fan of backing O Brien horses ante post, but found myself with Recital @ 10/1 and Treasure Beach at 400/1 + - his 3 year old's look strong this year. Cracking price on Carlton House, my big (and perhaps only) worry personally is whether he will stay the 1m 4f. Puts me off backing him at 11/2 anyway.

[mowgli77]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

Not sure what their first choice is, and I don't know if they know either to be honest. I think Seville's 2nd in the RP trophy represents the best form of the 2, but haven't seen anything yet as to whether he has trained on. Wouldn't back him at this stage either, as he has to be vulnerable first time out against World Domination and Carlton House .... Would be of interest if he got beaten and drifted though perhaps. Not normally a fan of backing O Brien horses ante post, but found myself with Recital @ 10/1 and Treasure Beach at 400/1 + - his 3 year old's look strong this year. Cracking price on Carlton House, my big (and perhaps only) worry personally is whether he will stay the 1m 4f. Puts me off backing him at 11/2 anyway.

Have to say I probably wouldn't be backing Carlton House at 11-2 at this stage. Having said that 11-2 could look a big price by Friday if Carlton House wins the Dante. Sunday papers report that Carlton House has been flying at home and that the Queen has actually been up to the gallops to see it work as they genuinely believe they could have a Derby horse this year. In all reality at the moment all it is as it stands is a poor maiden winner, an impressive one but has not really beaten anything of note. :ok

[Quackers]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) I have had 2pts on Genius Beast for the Derby at 40/1. He won his trial well enough and should improve for the extra distance in the Derby. If he wins the Dante beating the top 3 in the betting then surely he goes to the front of the market for the derby or there about's. 40/1 could look very tasty come 2.35pm on Thursday. As for the Dante itself, of the main 3 contenders I think Seville is the one to beat.

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

1 pt win Recital @ 10/1 Paddy Power Actually took this in the early hours of yesterday morning, but was too tired to post it up. The Ballysax this year is looking like a pretty decent renewal, and it comes out very favourably on the clock. Both the winner and the 5th have won since, and I am confident Recital was the moral winner that day. He heads to the Derrinstown trial today on the back of that, and I am confident that he will take all the beating. Should that be the case, I think the 10/1 for the Derby will look generous.

Very impressive, but not sure about him handling Epsom based on that performance.

[mowgli77]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

Very impressive' date=' but not sure about him handling Epsom based on that performance.[/quote'] I wasn't impressed at all, didn't think we had just seen the Derby winner there. Awkward high head carriage, was leaning a bit and although it got home well I was not blown away by it at all. Recital trimmed to best price 7-1, only 5's with Bet365. Seville has been backed for the Dante but PP have pushed it out to 10's for the Derby, other firms only go 6-1.

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

I wasn't impressed at all' date=' didn't think we had just seen the Derby winner there. Awkward high head carriage, was leaning a bit and although it got home well I was not blown away by it at all. Recital trimmed to best price 7-1, only 5's with Bet365. Seville has been backed for the Dante but PP have pushed it out to 10's for the Derby, other firms only go 6-1.[/quote'] Not sure if it's green-ness, the ground or what. I actually thought that he won very well despite the head carriage, but it certainly doesn't bode well for him at Epsom. Not sure why Seville has been pushed out on the back of that race though ...

[Stevet1859]

Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)

The Derby: Pour Moi 1pt win 20/1 William Hill It might be a strategy to have a point on Pour Moi, come June that could be a big price. He may not even run, however it would seem highly likely that his owners would surely come to Epsom if Pour Moi is fit and well. At the moment the two market leaders have lots of potential and if either World Domination or Carlton House wins the Dante well next week they will go off favourite for the Derby. At the time of writing though, Pour Moi is a Group 2 winner and is four times the price. Add in Andre Fabre, who is about as good as it gets as a trainer, and Pour Moi looks worth an interest.

The Derby: Pour Moi 1pt e/w 16/1 Totesport My "startegy" seems rather flawed the day after. Pour Moi has shortened up across the board and the best price now is 16/1. Having seen an opportunity at a price, should have bet it and "died with my boots on". Topping up today with a point each way. Still think that's a decent price. Pour Moi may not run, he may not handle the track if he does, or he may simply be not good enough. Yet the form in the book, his trainer, his breeding, and even his connections lead me to think his chance has been under estimated. On Recital, interesting that KF had a job pulling him up.... after what looked a reasonable pace.