mowgli77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Recital 10-1 Bet365 (Price taken) Runs tomorrow in the Ballysax and is an odds on favourite. O'Brien has somehow managed to book Ryan Moore for the ride and it won a Group 1 with ease last time out by 5 lengths. Entered for all sorts of fancy group races - Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, Dante, Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and cost 750,000 euros. Coolmore love to target the Derby for breeding purposes and this looks like their best hope for 2011. Carlton House 12-1 Bet365 (Price taken, now 10-1) 2nd on its debut but then hacked up in a Newbury maiden and demands respect as it is from the Stoute yard and he has a history of Derby winners, including North Light, Kris Kin and Workforce. Does not seem to possess a turn of foot but knew how to get the job done when getting to the front and then galloping away strongly at Newbury. Frankel is the 4-1 favourite but there seems to be stamina doubts, this may be going to the Dante and if it wins over 1m2f it may be cut even further, providing value elsewhere. Casamento is a best priced 12-1 chance and won the Racing Post Trophy, which is often a good indicator to a future Derby winner. 2 possible Derby horses also run in the Ballysax tomorrow: Adilapour - best priced 66-1 Regent Street - best priced 66-1 Keeping a keen eye on the trials etc up to the big race day :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Good luck with your bets. I think your 10s on recital is a strong leap of faith. The only one of their derby horses that i like is Seville. Recital has quite a high head carriage, and i'm not sure the form will stack up. Don't get me wrong, you can only beat what's in front of you. However i just don't feel that Recital will be as good as Seville, and as if to make a point i backed Seville last night as one of my Derby 3. I've watched the RP a few times and i like what i see. I think it's a more solid marker than the French race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Good luck with your bets. I think your 10s on recital is a strong leap of faith. The only one of their derby horses that i like is Seville. Recital has quite a high head carriage' date=' and i'm not sure the form will stack up. Don't get me wrong, you can only beat what's in front of you. However i just don't feel that Recital will be as good as Seville, and as if to make a point i backed Seville last night as one of my Derby 3. I've watched the RP a few times and i like what i see. I think it's a more solid marker than the French race.[/quote'] Just watched the 3.45 Leopardstown and felt that those giving the other horses about 5 lengths rode an absolutely terrible race. It wasn't just the favourite, it was the Weld horse too and the Aga Khan horse. Didn't have any money on Recital for the Ballysax but felt it was arrogance to give your rivals 5 lengths and first run and just expect to sweep past them to get up on the line. Even Jamie Spencer wouldn't have got away with that one. 14-1 winner, 25-1 2nd and a huge exacta, bit of an upset there but that's what you get with these early 3 yr old races isn't it? You could well be right with Seville, who are your other 2 Derby horses then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I just watched the race myself Mowgli. The thing is, they want to give the opponents enough rope to see if they have a horse good enough to still win. It was the same with Midas Touch last season when he won the Dennistown. On that occasion he gave the field about 7 lengths before catching them. There aren't a lot of runners in these races, so they have plenty of space to manoeuvre. In the derby they have to close in fast on whoever is out in front. That's just how i see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I have had bits n pieces on the 2 zarooni fancied runners in Casamento and Dubai prince. I know both have been purchased from Irish trainers and horses have a reputation of regressing when going to godolphin but i think zarooni is a talented trainer. He had a good first year in the uk and I am hoping this will be a good year for the boys in blue. They definitely have the fire power, as they always have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tull Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Just thought I'd throw Notable Graduate into the Derby mix who i've backed at 33's. I was disapointed with his 2nd LTO after showing promise on debut. He was running on in thefinal furlong but if racing clicks with this one then I think he has a lot a of attributes that could take him to the top. Theres no douting he's bred to get 10f+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I just watched the race myself Mowgli. The thing is' date=' they want to give the opponents enough rope to see if they have a horse good enough to still win. It was the same with Midas Touch last season when he won the Dennistown. On that occasion he gave the field about 7 lengths before catching them. There aren't a lot of runners in these races, so they have plenty of space to manoeuvre. In the derby they have to close in fast on whoever is out in front. That's just how i see it.[/quote'] I kow what you mean, testing the horses to see just how good they are but surely a string of 1's in their formline warrants more money and black type when they get packed off to stud and I don't think they'd go into the race with a view of losing. O'Brien has cleaned up in the past in this race and it could be that Moore was on the best horse today but we will see where they all go from here. I thought Recital picked up but had way too much to do and was never going to get there, it handicapped itself by giving them too much rope. Recital now out to 12's. :wall :$ My slight concern was the ground before the race was run, won on heavy, raced on gd-fm today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Mowgli do you have an opinion on Picture Editor. I know he's entered in the Greenham, but i'd imagine that he might run in the class 3 on Friday at Newbury. I got a fairly big price on him not so long ago. I think he could turn out so be pretty damn nice, especially on faster ground. I have a feeling that his rating of 91 will be a distant memory in the not too distant future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I quite like the look of Sea Moon for the Derby, although have little idea on how he's progressed this winter. Eye-catching debut, not far behind a Mark Johnston horse whose going to be rated in the 100's within the next month (won ridiculously easily on handicap debut), and although he only won by a length on his second start, it was on heavy ground and he hated it, and it's unlikely that it'll come up that soft at Epsom if lining up. I got 33/1 and I'm quite pleased with that, only still that price in one place Having had a look at the declarations for tomorrow at Newmarket, perhaps Henry Cecil's has another Derby contender. Midsummer Sun is Midday's half-brother, and was at one time thought as highly of as Frankel (only horse that could match his work when they were both unraced). Presume he's had a problem as we never saw him at 2 but the 1m2f trip he encounters on debut will be right up his street on breeding. Will have a small investment at 33/1 for the Derby now, and although it's a complete guess, if he wins well tomorrow, which is very possible, he'll be a heck of a lot shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread I have had a little bit on Midsummer Sun at 25/1 before he runs tomorrow as well. An impressive win an no doubt his odds will shorten even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Mowgli do you have an opinion on Picture Editor. I know he's entered in the Greenham' date=' but i'd imagine that he might run in the class 3 on Friday at Newbury. I got a fairly big price on him not so long ago. I think he could turn out so be pretty damn nice, especially on faster ground. I have a feeling that his rating of 91 will be a distant memory in the not too distant future.[/quote'] Expectations are that it will spend all season in the shadow of Frankel but Cecil has a knack of improving them and it could come on a bundle this year. The 2nd race (3 runner affair) doesn't really tell us anything but it was disappointing to see it not win a class 2 race when 3rd at Newmarket, could have been the ground and I think it will be better on a decent surface but aware it also won on heavy. 25-1 for the Derby with Tote and Coral, can't see it being that by race day. PP only offer 12-1, very cautious. Might have to get a few quid on before it races this season, a decent performance and you'll be looking at 10-/12-1 across the boards if not lower. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread Mowgli i asked TAPK who knows his stuff and as much as he likes Picture Editor, he thinks it's more of a King Edward type. I had a small bet at 50/1, but i'm not holding my breath, as it might be a pacemaker in the Greenham. Lars - i also hold 33s for sea Moon who i backed on the day of his debut last season. I simply backed it because there was a good word about it at the time, what with him being related to Workforce. It's a bit of a concern from a betting perspective that he's still 33/1, and other horses are getting talked up more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS im just looking for an ante post bet thats good value with either holding on to it for a possible run in the actual race or possibly laying it should it do well . of course theres always the chance it wont run but if you want big prices you have to speculate sometimes so i have rated the derby on known form to date and probable runners at the moment world domination 120 progressive seville 150 8f (collateral form with casamento ---in question)? quest for peace 100+ progressive carlton house beat nothing 90 progressive nathaniel 120 12 f good/firm progressive well with world domination at the head of the market under h cecil its no surprise hes a short price but little value at present ,sevilles is top of the ratings on a giant 150 but that form has been called into question given casamentos performance in the guineas so 8/1 not proven over dist and question on form means no value .... quest for peace and carlton house have done nothing to suggest they have any value so that leaves the totally outstanding ante post bet that is NATHANIEL 25/1 !!! trained by john gosden this horse has equal form to world domination but is 12x the price .......its quite a speculative bet and could go belly up but at 25/1 hes absolutely outstanding value having already achieved his rating around the derby trip ......and whats more he has an entry in the chester vase (thursday ) over the derby distance and we're he to run well his price will plummit and then a confirmed derby entry would mean an instant return possibly on the bet before he even runs ?obviously if he flops then the opposite could happen (25/1 on a 50/1 shot) but i think its worth a shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS taken 28/1 on betfair .....seems pretty decent to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS taken 28/1 on betfair .....seems pretty decent to me Why do you think Nathaniel is better than World Domination ? Nathaniel was beaten by Frankel on debut, but I would not read too much into that, then he was beaten by Frankels pacemaker Picture Editor next time out. At three Nathaniel won a £2900 conditions race at odds of 1/20, Derby winners are made of better stuff. World Domination will improve for his first run and is out of an Oaks winner, its madness to compare him with Nathaniel. I havent got a clue what will Win this years Derby yet, but I guarantee it wont be Nathaniel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS we'll if he wins the group 3 vase easily on thurs then everyone will sit up and take notice especially as he's a galilieo colt which is a much better pedigree than world domination .....14 x the price ? i'll take that every day of the week besides at the moment i didnt say he was better i said they have performed fairly equally to date and both are equally progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS and you cant lay a 9/4?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS we'll if he wins the group 3 vase easily on thurs then everyone will sit up and take notice especially as he's a galilieo colt which is a much better pedigree than world domination .....14 x the price ? i'll take that every day of the week besides at the moment i didnt say he was better i said they have performed fairly equally to date and both are equally progressive World Domination is a better bred colt than Nathaniel, his sire was a Belmont stakes winner (Group One, part of the US Triple Crown) and his Dam won the Oaks. I agree Galileo is a better sire than Empire Maker in European terms, Nathaniel could well win the Chester Derby trial but hes a very , very average horse. World Dominations debut win was far better than anything Nathaniel has done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS and you cant lay a 9/4?;) I havent looked, is World Domination 9/4 to Win the Derby ? if so stupid price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS seville 150 8f (collateral form with casamento ---in question)? sevilles is top of the ratings on a giant 150 but that form has been called into question given casamentos performance in the guineas so 8/1 not proven over dist and question on form means no value .... Think you are trying to find reasons not to back Seville. Casamento palpably ran way below form in the Guineas, nowhere near Racing Post Trophy form. If you discard that run, then the RPTrophy has worked out very well indeed. With third Master Of Hounds just failed to last home when pipped by Khawlah in the Group 2 UAE Derby. She is well fancied for the Oaks. Fourth, Native Khan won the Craven with a bit to spare and finished third in the 2000 Guineas. And fifth home Dunboyne Express, won the Group 3 Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial easily. It should be a positive, not a negative that Seville is yet to race over the Derby trip. Had no right to do as well as he did as a two year old. In a short space of time, making his debut on 25th September. Reaching Group 1 level when a close second in the Racing Post within a month. Breeding suggests will not come in to his own until running over 1m4f+. By Galileo out of Arc 8th Silverskaya who won at 1m4f. Her sire Silver Hawk is a stamina influence, responsible for such as Mubtaker (Arc second), Mutafaweq (Dubai Gold Cup winner) and Benny The Dip (Derby winner). Silver Hawk's sire Roberto also won the Derby. Maternal grand-dam's sire Niniski an even greater stamina influence, with Arc (Hernando) and St Leger (Minster Son) winners. Fact he came so close in a good ground Racing Post suggests he'll have enough speed too. World Domination was impressive on debut, had me immediately thinking of the Derby when I saw him at Newbury. Really good looking individual, out of Oaks winner Reams Of Verse. Might well be a good horse, but he's only won a maiden. Very green on debut, winnieing constantly in the paddock beforehand. There is also a bigger possibility of injury ruling him out. Must have had something wrong to have made his debut at three. Henry Cecil factor has also shortened him up to a false price. Carlton House also had Derby written all over his performance at Newbury last term, but that form as it stands is not worthy of Derby victory, even if he won easily by 9 lengths. Again, has bags of potential, but is priced up as if he has already proved himself. The Royal factor probably something to do with it. By World Cup winner Street Cry, out of a Sun Chariot winner, should be suited by middle distances. 8/1 Seville still looks outstanding value to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS Think you are trying to find reasons not to back Seville. Casamento palpably ran way below form in the Guineas, nowhere near Racing Post Trophy form. If you discard that run, then the RPTrophy has worked out very well indeed. With third Master Of Hounds just failed to last home when pipped by Khawlah in the Group 2 UAE Derby. She is well fancied for the Oaks. Fourth, Native Khan won the Craven with a bit to spare and finished third in the 2000 Guineas. And fifth home Dunboyne Express, won the Group 3 Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial easily. It should be a positive, not a negative that Seville is yet to race over the Derby trip. Had no right to do as well as he did as a two year old. In a short space of time, making his debut on 25th September. Reaching Group 1 level when a close second in the Racing Post within a month. Breeding suggests will not come in to his own until running over 1m4f+. By Galileo out of Arc 8th Silverskaya who won at 1m4f. Her sire Silver Hawk is a stamina influence, responsible for such as Mubtaker (Arc second), Mutafaweq (Dubai Gold Cup winner) and Benny The Dip (Derby winner). Silver Hawk's sire Roberto also won the Derby. Maternal grand-dam's sire Niniski an even greater stamina influence, with Arc (Hernando) and St Leger (Minster Son) winners. Fact he came so close in a good ground Racing Post suggests he'll have enough speed too. World Domination was impressive on debut, had me immediately thinking of the Derby when I saw him at Newbury. Really good looking individual, out of Oaks winner Reams Of Verse. Might well be a good horse, but he's only won a maiden. Very green on debut, winnieing constantly in the paddock beforehand. There is also a bigger possibility of injury ruling him out. Must have had something wrong to have made his debut at three. Henry Cecil factor has also shortened him up to a false price. Carlton House also had Derby written all over his performance at Newbury last term, but that form as it stands is not worthy of Derby victory, even if he won easily by 9 lengths. Again, has bags of potential, but is priced up as if he has already proved himself. The Royal factor probably something to do with it. By World Cup winner Street Cry, out of a Sun Chariot winner, should be suited by middle distances. 8/1 Seville still looks outstanding value to me. Excellent post :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS i really like seville gt but 8/1 is a bit short and doesnt give me much leeway or options ......world domination won his maiden by 3 lengths easy yes ....but nathaniel totally destroyed his and won by 9lengths on the bridle so how can you say world dominations run was better ? you see its tactics .......ive taken 28/1 so if nathaniel were to destroy the chester vase field in a fast time the bookies could cut him as low as 9/1 for the derby (or even lower) then i'll be the enviable position of letting a 9/1 shot run at 28/1 or just lay him off at a nice profit which means im quids in without even battering an eyelid which is exactly what my plan is at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS p/s i agree .....nice post gt :ok think about it ....£20 at 28/1 is £560 .......lay at 10/1 say £50 (nice doing business....lol) thats obviously best case scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS I havent looked' date=' is World Domination 9/4 to Win the Derby ? if so stupid price.[/quote'] no actually ...hes 9/2 but thats still rubbish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS no actually ...hes 9/2 but thats still rubbish I agree, hes 9/2 on potential not on whats hes actually achieved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: DERBY ANTE POST RATINGS It's not always about what you've beaten but the way you've beaten them in regards to Carlton House. Have a look at Workforce's maiden win at Goodwood, didn't really beat much, that field have not gone on to bigger and better things but it won by 6 lengths that day and was impressive. Carlton House can only beat what is put in front of it and did so in fine style. I'm on double figures odds ante post but I wouldn't be on at this price, way too skinny. If it then goes and wins the Dante next week it will be an even more ridiculously short price. The whole field had a false look about it because Frankel was at the head of the betting for so long at a short enough price. The 2000 Guineas was a freak race and I will take any form from that race with caution. Casamento and Roderic O Connor both look overpriced for me at 20-1 and 25-1 and Native Khan looks quite big at 16-1, it will get the trip. At the prices currently available I'd be looking at one of those 3 or maybe even Sea Moon but that is a pricewise horse that has been clipped from 25-1 recently and priced on potential. World Domination is all about potential too but at 4-1 that looks ridiculously poor value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) actually mowgli i can see why you like him ....he actually has a similar profile to nathaniel so if your on at double figures then that doesnt sound like a bad bet at all given his possible potential ,only reason i like nathaniel is his running was within 15 lengths outside the course standard so with potential improvement to come he could close that even further and anything that can run within 5 lengths of the standard has the abilty to win the derby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) worforce ran 17 lengths outside the standard in his maiden then went on to record a 151 in the dante before going on to derby glory ,so like i said anything that can run somewhere around the standrd 150 can win the derby no matter even if they lost the prep race (as workforce did) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) worforce ran 17 lengths outside the standard in his maiden then went on to record a 151 in the dante before going on to derby glory ' date='so like i said anything that can run somewhere around the standrd 150 can win the derby no matter even if they lost the prep race (as workforce did)[/quote'] The RP standards are wrong (576 time Ive said this so apologies). :drums You cant compare a standard time for a 7f race (Goodwood as a 2yo) and a 10f race (York) as a 3yo) on two dfferent courses when a horse is two then when hes three. The Dante he lost to the future Irish Derby Winner. He smashed the track record and the Derby time record at Epsom, so he can not have been that bad at two. When you're getting ratings in the 150s on the flat something is wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) When you're getting ratings in the 150s on the flat something is wrong. Depends what you use as your base line You could use 593 as your base line and end up with some ratings in the 600s..........if you wanted to Richard seems to use 150........... I use 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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