Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

[Evertonboy]

Morning, After posting my selections in the Midweek section of this forum, a few people have been asking about how I come up with my prices. So, here goes... Firstly, people may be interested in reading this similar thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/pullein-power-95650/ and my old thread on "true odds": http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/true-odds-calculator-107725/ For those who don't know of Kevin Pullien, he is a respected Racing Post tipster. Last year I bought a his book "A Definitive Guide to Betting on Football" and produced a spreadsheet based on his calculations in order to work out the "true" chance of certain events in football matches. For this thread tho, I will concentrate on his match odds only. How I Determine The Odds The first step is to work out each team in questions profile. To do this we need to calculate their "Strike Rate". In order to calculate this you need each teams WDL record. Then using the following formula you can determine their Strike Rate: (W+(D*0.5)/(W+D+L))*100. For example, Everton based on this seasons form have a strike rate of 50% (9+14*.05)/(9+14+8)*100. In his book Kevin suggests that he has the best results using around 60 games, I tend to use data from the current season as well as last season. Once you have the strike rate from both teams, you then need to compare the results of games with similar strike rates. Don't worry - Kevin has done all the work for you and has compiled a table based on thousands of games over the last 10 years or so. This then gives you the "true" chance of the home win, away win and the draw. As Kevin states in his book, nobody can predict the future, but in his opinion, the past is the best guide to the future. He does this by using past games between similar teams (strike rate wise) as a guide. For any more info, I suggest you buy the book :lol My intention is to post my odds for the remaining Premier League games and firstly highlight the most likely winner, and if I have time any value picks. (And possibly paper-trail most likely winner/ value pick combo) Any questions/ thoughts, please ask.

[Evertonboy]

Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"