Golf: US Masters 2011

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Geoff Ogilvy Top Australian @ 4.50 Sportingbet Aus Ogilvy has never missed the cut in 5 Masters and I think that sits him in good stead for this market. Baddeley has missed 4 cuts from 5 attempts and has never finised ahead of Ogivly in this event. Jason Day has never played here. Allenby has played this course 11 times -- He's never finished Top 20 and never beaten Ogilvy at the event. Scott and Allenby both have solid records but I still fancy Ogilvy in this one with his major and WGC winning credentials. Also, thanks to a Sportingbet promo, I get a free bet on Ogilvy to win the Masters outright :ok (Available to Aussies Only) Fred Couples @ 230 Betfair Couples has a very strong record here -- 8 Top 10's in 20 attempts. (He finished 6th last year so he's still able to produce strong golf) He also shot to a strong lead in the Northern Trust this year before fading to finish 4th, so he's got some form going into this event. As I said, he's played here 20 times so he's got as good a course knowledge as anyone in the field, and with his odds and the glimpses he showed in the Northern Trust I'm happy to be a backer here. He also meets 8 of Hornet's outlined criteria. Angel Cabrera @ 160 Betfair I really like Cabrera's record here - 1 win, A further 3 top 10's and a further 3 top 25's. He's only ever won twice on the PGA tour, but both of those were Majors, so he's clearly a man who thrives on the occasion and copes well with pressure -- both Major wins he won a three way playoff, including 1 against Tiger. Given this and his triple figure odds, I don't see why you'd ignore him in your bets.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011

Watney is a quality player and scores highly when applying the 'Hornet Criteria'.

Loving the name "Hornet Criteria"...might have to use that! :D Of course if it pitches up loads of losers over the course of the season I'll have to change my name...:lol

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Right, just a few hours to go until one of the great sporting occassions of the year. I feel this tournament owes me a couple after some close finishes. Duval and Rose both spring to mind. I have tried to build a bit of a book this year backing some players from as long as 6 weeks ago and topping up as I go along. Like many I can't see Woods winning this week - his game is just a little too far off for my liking. Too many duff shots, he hit a drive the other week that went no more than 150 yards. He's still finding his swing and I think he'll figure more prominently later in the year. Plenty of people are out to get him and I think his price could drift quite quickly if he makes a slow start. AS he still has the ability to go low I might try and get him in the book but not quite yet. Mickelson is an obvious pick, and I have him as a saver at the moment, but I'm delighted to see after Hornet's rsearch he is worth taking on. I'm all over Nick Watney - his record is quite excellent at the event and to have a scoring average under 72 after 3 appearances is very good. He's coached by a man who knows the tournament like no other coach and Butch Harmon is a good man to have onside. He's taken the last two weeks off which suggests his game is in great nick and I expect a huge showing this week. YE Yang is another big winner for me. I always like to give players 3 goes before they really are betting propositions at this event just because of the sheer scale and magnitude of it all. As soon as a player qualifies everyone in his family and friends wants to come along, and the whole occassion gets in the way of playing golf. Martin Laird is an obvious example this year and I'll be surprised if he goes close. YE Yang will be playing for the 4th time this year and last year finished top 10. Underrated and overpriced is always a good betting sign - Yang is both. Brandt Snedeker is my big winner for the week, although to be fair I will trade if he goes low!! Tied 3rd in 2008 when he first played as a pro (played as an amateur in 2004), he blew up in the final round with a 77. Brandt is one of the good guys and has a sharp mind. He has 3 top 10's this year and finished T8th in the US Open. One of the very best putters on tour, his sometimes erratic driving isn't under such pressure around the wide fairways of augusta. NAother who has taken time out the last two weeks, at 200's he has to be backed. Anthony Kim who in 2 appearances has managed two, that's two 65's. Considering the coruse record is 63 that's some going. Showed he's in decent touch at Houston with a 2nd round 64. Other players I have backed for various degrees of profit are Immelman, seems to be playing into better form, Justin Rose who has shown a liking for the course with his 18,36 and 54 holes lead. Hunter Mahan in great form, has a good record at the tournament, Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar.

[Spooner]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 T.Woods to win US Masters @ 12/1 Boylesports - 1pt E/W (6, 1/4) Seems crazy taking a player out of form to win the Masters but I've been thinking all along that Woods will bounce back and I reckon he'll do it on the big stage, so I'll be backing him all the Major's this year unless he wins an event before one. Record speaks for itself obviously and although he hasn't looked the same player since everything's happened in his life I think if he just focuses on his golf this weekend then it could come good for him.

[theoldmaster]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 FREDDIE COUPLES FIRST ROUND LEADER 100/1 EW, This for me has to be a really tasty bet Freddie knows his way round here backwards, and he is capable of fantasic rounds at Augusta his recoerd here is excellent and he has been in the mix on final day afew times in recent years, Yeah he has the issue of a back injury but this may not be a factor until the last two days round one will see a fresh Fred, with a bit of form and a crowd who love to see him. on a high and i reckon this is a value bet.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 1st round leader McILROY 35/1 E/W Can come out of the traps like a rocket like he did in the british open can tear any course up if it all clicks 35's is a decent price. GOOSEN 60/1 E/W another well capable of have a very low round on any given day worth a small dabble at the odds.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 This is important for my final selections Shell Houston Open 1. P Mickleson 2. C Kirk / S Verplank Arnold Palmer Invitational 1. M Laird 2. S Marino Transitions Championship 1. G Woodland 2. W Simpson WCC 1. N Watney 2. D Johnson Honda Classic 1. R Sabbatini 2. Y E Yang WGC Matchplay 1^{st L Donald 2nd M Kaymer Northern Trust Open 1. A Baddeley 2. V Singh Pebble Beach Pro am 1. D A Points 2. H Mahan Phoenix Open 1. M Wilson 2. J Dufner Sony Open 1. M Wilson 2. T Clark / S Marino Tournament of Champions 1. J Byrd 2. R Garrigus Dubai Desert Classic 1. A Quiiros 2. J Kingston / A Hansen Qatar Masters 1. R Karlsson 2. A Quiros Abu Dhabi 1. M Kaymer 2. R Mcilroy Volvo Golf Champions 1st P Casey 2nd M A Jimenez / P Hansen 1st and 2nd already posted this year is important here at Augusta, i will take this with course form to see what else i can throw up -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- followed this the last few years and should get some return in the outrights, Top 10 finishes over 7 years Woods 6 * Mickleson 6 * Top 20 finishes over 7 years Woods 7 * Goosen 5 * Singh 5 * Mickleson 6 * Cink 4* Casey 4* Weir 3 Appleby 3 Harrington 3 Immelman 4 T Clark 3 Looking how i will split the golfers into bets, i should be looking at the following golfers over the 4 days, along with Mickelson and Woods if they hit a higher price than when they start out as both are capable of making up shots here during rounds 3 & 4: P Casey R Goosen V Singh T Immelman S Cink other considerations}

 winners profile normally includes:  1st or 2nd so far this season  Driving distance ranks well

Driving Distance
Rank	Leader	Rounds	Total
1	J.B. Holmes	28	311.7
2	Bubba Watson	31	310.7
3	Dustin Johnson	25	310.0
4	Chris Baryla	15	309.0
5	Angel Cabrera	18	303.1
TOUR Average		25	285.6

^{ 1st 2 in GIR stats}

Greens in Regulation Percentage
Rank	Leader	Rounds	Total
1	Ben Crane	19	73.61
2	Bubba Watson	31	73.33
3	Justin Rose	30	72.82
4	Kevin Sutherland	23	72.71
5	Steve Elkington	16	72.57
TOUR Average		25	65.50

^{ Previous masters form counts Woods and Mickelson stand out here with top 10 & 20 finishes literally every year for the last 7.  Last 8 years winning distance - 3-2-2-P-1-P-3-P-3 (P for play off)  Consider these based on the above with Masters stats noted: Bubba Watson -/42/T20/ J B Holmes -/-/T25/ J Rose -/T20/T36/T5 D Johnson T38/T30 A Carbrera T25/1/T19/T37/T8/MC/MC/T15 B Crane T24/-/-/MC/MC Would keep Watson, Carbrera, Johnson and Rose on side of these 4. I have also been looking at Nick Watney who has a masters record of 7/11/19 over last 3 years. His form this year has ben excellent. Write ups to come on final bets ........}

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Just the one for me at the minute. I'm on at bigger prices having backed this on and off for the last 6 weeks but this is still a decent price in my eyes. 2pts ew B.Watson to win US Masters 40/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1-6) This is a pretty strong outright punt for me in such a big field but for good reason. I believe this course sets up for Bubba's game perfectly. Length isn't an essential requirement but it helps and Bubba has it. He's a good putter and he's in decent nick and the shape of the holes will benefit that huge booming cut he smashes off the tee. Bubba was 2nd in the last major and has won on Tour since then. 4th in illustrious company at the Accenture and I believe he can win his first major this week on a course which could not set up any better for him if he designed it himself.

[ArtfulPunter]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 I heard on Sky yesterday (and I notice Elcaker picked up on it above) that Justin Rose has led at the end of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd days of the Masters (but obviously never the 4th - yet). He's in solid form and clearly enjoys playing the course. I actually truly believe an Englishman will win it. And that's not blind patriotism - I'm Welsh for one thing! I read earlier tonight that Westwood has been addressing his putting with his dad, which is good because its his main weakness (IMHO). I actually think he mis-reads putts from 10-20 feet too regularly for a top pro with a top caddie. If he takes the improvements he has made in putting practice onto the course then I think his accuracy and iron play (and experience of last year) give him a great chance. And I don't buy the view that he's a bottler at all. I actually think he handles the pressure pretty well. My other selection is Luke Donald. I know his Augusta record is not the best and his modest length doesn't suit the course. But the fact is he ticks most of the boxes. He's pretty consistently straight, his course management is second to none ("plod"), he's the best bunker player in the world (bar maybe Els) and he's an excellent clutch putter. I really think he's got a very strong chance and great value around 25/1 - 28/1. I also think he's close to being an E/W cert by the way. I simply cannot see him not being in contention come Sunday. I'm also going to wager small on Poulter and Casey just to cover off the English thing! Two things I would say that might be of interest. One: Stan James are offering stake refunds on win only bets if Woods/Leftie win. If you're betting pretty heavily and haven't selected either of these two, it might provide some useful insurance (although personally I don't rate either's chances). Secondly, I also hold some of my investment back to provide opportunity for in-play betting. Masters' winners are rarely wire to wire. Therefore at various times in the week your selections are going to ebb and flow. Picking them up at a trough can provide some good value betting. I think this is especially important for anyone backing Mickelson and Woods. I think the 6/1-9/1 range on offer for these two is very poor value with such an open field. Neither are likely to start like a bull in a china shop. Therefore at various points in the first two days I can see their odds drifting somewhere back to where (I think) they should be, i.e. 14/1 - 20/1. Good luck to all and shame one of the last great bastions of terrestrial TV has been (partially) sold off. Although I think Alliss needs to be put out to pasture, I hate to think of the best sporting 4 days of the year being broken up by endless commercial breaks and the monotone drawl of Bruce Critchley. Thank God for Butch Harmon!

[Striker]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Good Luck everyone Outright not a tournament i get heavily involved in,tend to play more on the 18 hole matches Those who Pmed me know that ive had small ew bets on Stewart Cink & Robert Allenby @ 125-1 Cink though missed the cut last couple of years has overall decent cd form and i like the way he is getting his game together the last few weeks.Allenby has a patchy masters record but is a guy ive always thought capable of winning a major Im adding another 100+ player to my portfolio..Francesco Molinari @ 100-1 [Ladbrokes]..this guy is a man who ups his game for the big occasion and i think after this tournament wont be these sort of odds in a major

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 My 1st 4 to consider, bets will be placed later today on a number of markets involving these golfers. Another 4 or so to follow from my previous lists. Bubba Watson Masters record -/42/T20 Already a winner this season and 8th in the money list on the US Tour. Suprising that he only has 2 wins in 138 events played in his pro career, hits the ball an absolute mile (310 yd driving average) which is also backed up by his Greens in Regulation percentage at 73%, both ranking 2nd on the tour. Certainly has the game to win a major at some point in his career. His scoring average here is around 72 in the 2 previous performances at Augusta which is consistent however the lack of a very low round is the only negative for me. Paul Casey Masters record MC/T20/T11/T10/MC/T6 Paul has a decent GIR % also and we all know is capable of 3 rounds in a major, its that all important 4th round that causes the problem. He has made 77 cuts of 107 PGA tour events which is very decent and i fully expect him to be around all 4 days here. It will not surprise me if he is around the top of the leaderboard after day 1. Already has 4 top 25 finishes here each time he made the 4 days, the other 2 including last year were both poor efforts. Angel Carbrera Masters record T18/1/T25/T37/T5/MC/MC/T15/T9/T10/MC Struggling to justify Angel's inclusion in my final list as his stats fall below the standard apart from his Driving distance, the accuracy is well below the average on the tour however what sets him apart is his excellent Masters record. If he makes the cut, god chance he will be Top 25 in with a shout. Stewart Cink Masters record MC/MC/T3/T17/10/T20/T17/-/T24/MC/T28/T27/T23/MC Hasn't hit form yet this year but again has a decent record round here apart from last 2 years. This one is just a hope that he can recapture his major winning form this year and the run of 5 consecutive top 20 finishes here should put him in good stead if he makes the cut.

[cashit]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011

Also, thanks to a Sportingbet promo, I get a free bet on Ogilvy to win the Masters outright :ok (Available to Aussies Only) read it again the freebet goes towards the US Open advantage Allenby at that course

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Hi all, 4 picks for me. Super write up by Hornet at the start of this, ya must have had a few sleepless nights tryin to compile all that info. The two main aspects illl be concentratin on is recent form and course experience. Martin Kaymer 22-1 World number 1, super putter and his all round game is envy of most. That coupled with the efficeincy of the German outlook i think he's got a super chance. He surprisingly has kinda kept under the radar this week as the media have gone with the phil and tiger band wagon, which is always a plus. Hunter Mahan 28-1 Nobody more consistant this year with a top 10 in all but two of his starts. He's been comin to the boil for a while and has done well in majors in the past so hopefully he's got his head around winning one. Gary Woodland 150-1 Not much experience in majors which is a negative but has a real simple swing and showed great resolve when winnin for the first time on tour. Has been very impressive and consistant with 3 top 10's to boot. Tentive pick but worth a go at a big price. Mike Weir 400-1 Left handed has 4 top 5is here winning once in 2003, thats four left handed winners that have won here in the recent past. With Phil comin out recently statin that the course is set up to favour leftys, its worth an each way payout at a colossal price. All each way picks woth PP 1-6 payout best of luck lads!

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Gary Woodland Top Debutant @ 13 outright ToteSport Most of the focus in the market has gone to Scot Martin Laird, however, I feel this young big hitter has the perfect game for Augusta. It was mentioned earlier by Farney so I'm just going to follow up on it! I dont think he'll win it on his debut, however, at these odds if he finishes somewhere in the top 20 he'll give himself a chance. Played 9 times this season - 4 top 10s (including a win) and a 13th last week where he was 1st in Total Driving and Ball Striking for the week. Currently top 25 for driving distance, GIR, putting, ball striking and birdie conversion so definitely has the game and form to go well on his debut. Well worth a go at double figure odds. GL :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011

Also, thanks to a Sportingbet promo, I get a free bet on Ogilvy to win the Masters outright :ok (Available to Aussies Only) read it again the freebet goes towards the US Open advantage Allenby at that course

"Back the Aussies in the 2011 US Masters simply place a bet on the Top Australian market, and we will match your bet on that player in the outright winner market. You get two bets for the price of one" Where oh where does it say US open? The Masters is mentioned five times in the T&C, the US Open is not mentioned once. Not once.

[cashit]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 have to apologize to you mate, they are playing funny buggers. we were discussing this on another forum yesterday as we all originally thought it would be used for the Masters Outright, but after a closer look we found this here is what they had in the T&Cs yesterday The Free bet will be automatically placed on the same player selected in the Top Australian Market, in the U.S Open Outright Winner market to the value of your stake up to a maximum of $50. they have gone ahead and changed the T&Cs Ogilvy is a fine bet though either way and thats who i am taking now :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011

have to apologize to you mate, they are playing funny buggers.

No worries mate. I think they just forget to update some promotions at times and probably still had that one from the last time they did a golf one. I know last week they were advertising the promotion from the week before.

[cashit]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 yeah they have no idea their monkey struggles with basic copy paste from pinnacle, can't expect them to get their own promotions right. :tongue2

[Deadly Statistics]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 I usually pour over golf form for hours so i will try and share my thoughts everyweek on all tours if i have time. Masters picks: Anthony Kim @ 41s Tab Sportsbet. Prodigious talent this bloke who has had everything go wrong for him in the last 18 months. Key stats for him : 2 starts at augusta for a 3rd and a T-20. Has shot 2 65s at this course out of 8 rounds and to put that in perspective tiger woods has only ever shot better then 66 twice in 62 rounds! [65 twice] T-13 at Houston last week which was a solid return to form. The key to majors is avoiding double bogeys if he can do it he will be right in the finish. Ian Poulter @ $61 Tab Sportsbet Cant stand him but he's seriously talented , im convinced he will win a major 1 day hopefully this is the week. Key Stats: Finished in a tie for 10th last year after being in a very strong position at the halfway mark. [3 clear of eventual winner Phil Mickelson] 4 top 25 finishes in 4 years. Padraig Harrington @ 51s Tab Sportsbet Paddy has been struggling a little bit since his uspga heroics of a few years ago. In fact he seems to really battle on sundays which was his hallmark when winning 3 majors. But 2 top 10s from his last 3 starts has him primed for a serious tilt at the green jacket. Key stats: Triple major winner. 3 top 10s at augusta. 2 top 10s in his last 3 starts. Ryan Moore @ $67 Tab Sportsbet Very good ball striker and has the all round golf game to win a major 1 day. Key Stats 3 starts at augusta for 2 top 15s. Has made all 6 cuts this year including 2 top 5s. Peter Hanson @ 26s top debutante This is a great bet and once again another example of bookmakers underestimating european form. Key stats. Finished t-16 at the us open last year and T-18 the year before. Has won 4 times on the europeantour. Mickelson , Woods , Watney and Mahan all brilliant chances but all under the odds. Bubba Watson is the best lay shouldn't be anywhere near the 20s in betting and shouldn't be above players like kim ,harrington , mcdowell and poulter. My odds are only a guide u will get much better odds with betfair so shop around.

[Dougal]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Graeme McDowell e/w @ 45/1 It baffles me that Rory McIlroy, who has two wins in almost four years on tour is way shorter than his good buddy McDowell. McDowell has the aura of a major champion now, never illustrated better than when he turned around a four shot deficit to beat Tiger in the Chevron back in December. This year has been steady for McDowell in the US with three top tens although I would imagine motivating himself for regular tour events is now a lot harder, it's all about the majors. Suprisingly this is only McDowell's fourth appearance at the Masters, he missed the cut last year but finished T17 the year before. His strength for me is his iron play and his course management, both key factors at Augusta and his putting is much improved. Dustin Johnson e/w @ 28/1 You would think Augusta would be made for Johnson with his length off the tee and an excellent short game, he should make mincemeat of the par 5s. His record is nothing to write home about, T30 and T38 the last two years but they always say you need to play there a few times to get used to the course. I thought Johnson came back really well at the USPGA after his meltdown at Pebble Beach, didn't get there then but perhaps third time lucky. He's been bubbling along quite nicely this year with three top 10s, including a 2nd at the WGC Cadillac a few weeks ago. One thing I like about DJ here is that he is a superb putter. Bill Haas e/w @150/1 Haas is a bit of a steady eddie, knock it down the middle and then in the middle of the green, to be honest, he's a bit dull. Dull he maybe but he gets the job done, he was T26 on debut here last year. Haas has the necessary components to do well here, good GIR stats (10th on tour) and a good short game, scrambling (ranked 9th) and putting (ranked 58th) He's also ranked well in the birdie average (28th) and eagles (9th) Ben Crane e/w @150/1 Crane is one of the shorter hitters on tour but I'm hoping he can follow in the footsteps of Mike Weir and Zach Johnson and win it for the little guys. This is Crane's fourth appearance here, made the cut for the first time last year when he finished T24. He proved last year that he can win on long courses when he won the Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines so his length hopefully won't be an issue. Crane is 1st on the tour in GIR, 13th in putting and 4th in birdie average all of which bodes well. He missed a few weeks with a rib injury but came back at the Shell Houston Open last week and finished T24 so he should be good to go this week.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Just to note that I've also had a few antepost bets on the Masters...some of the odds are good, some are nothing special despite early bets (see A Kim bet!)! Lee Westwood @ 20s ew - now 16s (General) This was placed just after Westwood became number one and I assumed he would only continue form he had held for 18months. To be honest, I thought he'd be about 12s by this point. Still believe he has a great chance as he played pretty well last week and really knows the course well now. Played brilliantly here last year and everyone knows this is now what he is playing for - to get in contention for the majors. Anthony Kim @ 40s ew - now 45s (General) This was placed earlier in the season when he had hit 3 top 20s in the first 3 tournaments of the year. I thought he was over his thumb injury and would really follow up on the T6 in the Farmers Insurance Open. I was wrong; however, I was really happy to some semblance of form last week in Houston. The guy is a fantastic player and reminds me of a young Phil Mickelson - hits it long and erratic but has an absolutely magical short game as one of the best putters on tour. Loves the course and in two appearances here has already shot 2 65s. Will win here one day, but possibly not this year. Sergio Garcia @ 80s ew - now 80s (Coral) Sergio went in to about 60s best price a couple of weeks ago when in contention at the Transitions but hasnt played since his 8th at Arnold Palmer. Seems to be a case of out of sight out of mind as without a doubt, he has turned a corner in terms of his game. On his comeback from his mini break he missed the cut...since then he has played 8 times with 8 top 30s, 3 top 10s, and his last 3 tournaments reading 20-15-8. Surely that form has got to look pretty good. The reality is that his short game probably isnt good enough to win this tournament, but his long game looks in superb shape again and the fact that he has 20 wins worldwide by the age of 31 shows that we're probably over critical of him solely because he hasnt won a major. I still expect him to, but most likely the open. Ryan Moore @ 125s - now 70s (Bet365) Finally one of my bets has shortened significantly! He is probably priced about right now but I wouldnt be surprised to see him go very close. An amateur career to challenge anybody, he has taken longer than expected to truly make a name for himself with the big boys, however, a PGA Tour win, two top 15s at the Masters and another 2 top 10s in the majors shows he's really starting to move forward. Has played pretty well this season with 3 top 15s in his last 5 tournaments. Fantastic driver of the ball and says he feels comfortable on the greens here which is a massive bonus. Was the best putter in the field last year which backs this up so I have no doubt he could go close at decent odds. GL :ok

[Tyler]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 There has been some really good stuff in here so far guys I'm sure this weekend is going to be a profitable one. Always magic surrounding the masters and this one is no definitely no different. I don'y usually post in the golf threads here but I'm going to have a dig at this years Masters. I generally look towards the 72-hole matchbets and the 1st Round Group bets instead of trying to call winners outright and have hit a few this year. Good luck to all, I'm going in with the following: 72-Hole Matchbet - Phil Mickelson (vs. T. Woods) x Justin Rose (vs. P. Harrington): Double @ 2.87 (via Bet365) Some may say going against Woods is just stupid but in all honesty he is a mere shadow of his former self. I'm a firm believer of the idea that he will be back to what we know he can be eventually but I don't think it will be here. His driving is amazing sometimes and then sometimes its absolute shit. He's been three-putting a bit too much too for my liking and I think Mickelson will be in the Top 5 come sunday especially after his win last week. Alot has been said of Justin Rose so far already in here and I think he has enough to overcome Padraig Harrington. Padraig has been working hard on his 'new swing' over the winter but it has produced little results. He won in Malaysia last year but since then he has effectively done nothing. Missed the cut here last year and I really don't think Augusta is somewhere that you want to be going when you are not at one with your game. I'm convinced Rose is going to win this one and the double pays fairly well. - Luke Donald (vs Paul Casey) @ EVS (via WilliamHill) Paul Casey has a good record at Augusta with 4 Top 20 finishes in the 6 years he has played here. Luke Donald's record is a bit more sketchy with only two Top 20 finishes since '05 but I think for this one you need to look at where these two are in right now. Casey won the Volvo in January but Donald has been playing brilliantly this year with an almost faultless win at the WGC. Despite him not having the longest game in the world which may be what he needs to be a winner here at Augusta, his iron game is ridiculously good which can almost compensate for the shortfallings he has off the tee. Casey is good but there's something about him I don't like. He shot 64 in the first round of the Transitions the other day and still managed to finish T37. I don't think he's completely right in the head to go far here and I think Donal has the beating of him. In all truths I think Donald has the game and a brilliant chance of a Top 20-finish on his hands this year so I'll play on his side this time around. 1st Round Group Bet - Hunter Mahan (vs. E. Els & F. Molinari) @ 5/4 (via WilliamHill) Els is one of the golfers that I look to oppose in these tournaments lately as he is another player who has not reached the heights he used to for a long while. His Masters record is nothing to write home about either for a player of his 'calibre'. Since 2004, he has shot sub-70 only once and has never been in the Top 25 since. His last five 1st Round scores at the Masters have gone 71, 75, 74, 71, 78. Not brilliant. Mahan is a player I like, he has a game that could go well at the Masters and I think he will take this particular market. His first round score of 66 in the '09 Masters and his score of '71 in 2010 Masters is okay too. Molinari has played once at Augusta and I'm not sure his inexperience will put him in good stead here. He shot 70 in the 1st Round last year but his putting has been all over the place recently and I don't think the greens at Augusta will be wholly forgiving. Definitely fancy Hunter to come out on top early on

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 My posts from last year on 2 golfers Anthony Kim Here is a golfer coming into form at the right time of the season. A very agressive player who can pull a shot out of nothing. He is currently playing above the PGA scoring average in terms of driving distance by 11yds, scoring average of 69.5, GIR and also scrambling. Important also that putts per round is currently at 28.7. Positions so far this year are T33, T24, T22, 2nd & 1st. Currently ranked 4th in the PGA scoring charts. Was tied 20 at -2 as a rookie here last year. Vijay Singh Vijay boasts a Masters record of T30-T14-T13-T8-T5-T6-T6-7-T18-1 since 2000 when he was victorious. His odds of 13/2 to get a top 10 finish look a bit generous on a course he clearly enjoys. 9/4 with >Bet365 to finish top 20 is a great shout with 9 out of 10 top 20 finishes since 2000. His scoring average is under 70 this year so this bodes well. I just wish he doesn't try the big shots which often cost him one or 2 shots which are crucial during the final stages. A small interest in the ROW market also. This year's comments: Anthony Kim finished 3rd last year and made a decent fist of it, his golf so far this year has been a bit erratic however he did shoot a 64 recently and has hit decent scores in those 2 visits to Augusta previously. His driving stats need to improve a little but his GIR stats are ok to warrant a mention. Vijay didnt play last year due to injury abut his Masters record again has to be mentioned with 10 attempts always making the cut and never worse than top 30. I would take a risk on Vijay at on of his favourit courses. His 2nd place this year in the northern trust open is also a decent pointer to form.

[griffey]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Have to agree with Hornet18 about Anthony Kim. This guy is built to win at Augusta, which is suited to his high balls and his attacking play and his mistakes tend to get punished less than at other courses. He is a very similar player to Mickelson in that respect, although not as good yet obviously, and look at Lefty's record here. I am convinced Kim is a Masters winner waiting to happen, and will be backing him until he does! Also note he is 13/10 with totesport for first round 3ball against Marino and Stenson, which looks a great bet to me. Couldn't have Stenson at twice the price. good luck all :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011

My 1st 4 to consider, bets will be placed later today on a number of markets involving these golfers. Another 4 or so to follow from my previous lists. Bubba Watson Masters record -/42/T20 Already a winner this season and 8th in the money list on the US Tour. Suprising that he only has 2 wins in 138 events played in his pro career, hits the ball an absolute mile (310 yd driving average) which is also backed up by his Greens in Regulation percentage at 73%, both ranking 2nd on the tour. Certainly has the game to win a major at some point in his career. His scoring average here is around 72 in the 2 previous performances at Augusta which is consistent however the lack of a very low round is the only negative for me. Paul Casey Masters record MC/T20/T11/T10/MC/T6 Paul has a decent GIR % also and we all know is capable of 3 rounds in a major, its that all important 4th round that causes the problem. He has made 77 cuts of 107 PGA tour events which is very decent and i fully expect him to be around all 4 days here. It will not surprise me if he is around the top of the leaderboard after day 1. Already has 4 top 25 finishes here each time he made the 4 days, the other 2 including last year were both poor efforts. Angel Carbrera Masters record T18/1/T25/T37/T5/MC/MC/T15/T9/T10/MC Struggling to justify Angel's inclusion in my final list as his stats fall below the standard apart from his Driving distance, the accuracy is well below the average on the tour however what sets him apart is his excellent Masters record. If he makes the cut, god chance he will be Top 25 in with a shout. Stewart Cink Masters record MC/MC/T3/T17/10/T20/T17/-/T24/MC/T28/T27/T23/MC Hasn't hit form yet this year but again has a decent record round here apart from last 2 years. This one is just a hope that he can recapture his major winning form this year and the run of 5 consecutive top 20 finishes here should put him in good stead if he makes the cut.

My posts from last year on 2 golfers Anthony Kim Here is a golfer coming into form at the right time of the season. A very agressive player who can pull a shot out of nothing. He is currently playing above the PGA scoring average in terms of driving distance by 11yds, scoring average of 69.5, GIR and also scrambling. Important also that putts per round is currently at 28.7. Positions so far this year are T33, T24, T22, 2nd & 1st. Currently ranked 4th in the PGA scoring charts. Was tied 20 at -2 as a rookie here last year. Vijay Singh Vijay boasts a Masters record of T30-T14-T13-T8-T5-T6-T6-7-T18-1 since 2000 when he was victorious. His odds of 13/2 to get a top 10 finish look a bit generous on a course he clearly enjoys. 9/4 with >Bet365 to finish top 20 is a great shout with 9 out of 10 top 20 finishes since 2000. His scoring average is under 70 this year so this bodes well. I just wish he doesn't try the big shots which often cost him one or 2 shots which are crucial during the final stages. A small interest in the ROW market also. This year's comments: Anthony Kim finished 3rd last year and made a decent fist of it, his golf so far this year has been a bit erratic however he did shoot a 64 recently and has hit decent scores in those 2 visits to Augusta previously. His driving stats need to improve a little but his GIR stats are ok to warrant a mention. Vijay didnt play last year due to injury abut his Masters record again has to be mentioned with 10 attempts always making the cut and never worse than top 30. I would take a risk on Vijay at on of his favourit courses. His 2nd place this year in the northern trust open is also a decent pointer to form.

Added to the above Justin Rose Made 100% of cuts this year on the tour and has a top 5 finish here at Augusta under his belt. Could be the one for 1st round leader and also retain for Top GB player. Driving distance is average but GIR is excellent (3rd on the tour). Often shows the ability but doesnt see it through. Dustin Johnson Won a few quid at the WGC recently for his 2nd place finish and i am going with his driving distance and GIR as the main reasosn for inclusions at this stage. May be backing him again over the weekend if he is around 4 off the lead at any stage. Nick Watney I mentioned his form form this year and also his record at the Masters and has t be included as a serious contender for this years title whilst in this form. Final Bets (all with Paddy Power EW terms are 1-2-3-4-5-6 1/4 odds) Winner (11.5pts staked) Dustin Johnson 25/1 1.5pts win Anthony Kim 40/1 3pts win Paul Casey 35/1 1.5pts win Bubba Watson 40/1 1pt win Vijay Singh 80/1 1pt ew Nick Watney 16/1 2.5pts win 1st round leader (1.5pts staked) Stewart Cink 80/1 0.5pts Paul Casey 28/1 0.5pts Justin Rose 28/1 0.5pts Top GB player (2pts staked) Paul Casey 7/1 1pt Justin Rose 7/1 1pt Top 10 (5pts staked) Angel Carbrera 8/1 1pt Anthony Kim 4/1 4pts 20pts staked overall to cover the 4 days Good luck all

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Just for clarity, i did put in a previous post that i would be looking at Lefty and Woods to back. These bets will be during the tournament if they happen to fall behind at any stage and are bigger than ntheir current odds. Both are capable of making 6 shots on any day so lets see during the weekend

[Paddy Mc]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 This is my first time posting my golf bets in-depth on here so be gentle! I must say i have followed the 'Hornet Criteria' pretty closely and you will notice most of the picks will meet the majority if not all of the criteria. All bets placed with Paddy Power (EW 1st 6 Places) last night and glad to see some fellow punters on here have put forward cases for the same players today. Anthony Kim EW @ 40/1 Alot has been said about AK on here and with his fantastic record at Augusta albeit based on a short career (3rd and T20th). His final round last year sticks in my memory and i simply couldn't pass up the odds on a player like Kim who i feel has the game to win majors. Steve Stricker EW @ 45/1 I find the odds on Stricker generous given his class. I feel he is in nice form, backed up by a good top 5 performance last week and if he can get the putter working like we know it can i feel he can have a good go at claiming the green jacket. I had my eye on him before Hornet's research and that encouraged me even more. Ian Poulter EW @ 50/1 Big fan of Poulter, like his style and he has made 6 cuts in 6 appearances with his last 4 appearances reading T10th, T20th, T25th and T13th i am hoping his run of progression in the last 3 years continues leaving backers with a good chance of collecting. YE Yang EW @ 95/1 Yang again fits Hornet's criteria, finished top 10 last year and is very much a player in the major fields these days. Had a small play at 95/1 as i feel these are very generous odds for a major winner in decent form. Ryan Moore EW @ 66/1 I regard Moore as an up and coming player and was surprised that in his only 3 appearances (over last 8 years) he hasn't missed a cut at Augusta with 2 top 15 finishes. Happy to have a dabble on him and glad to see others agree. Charl Schwartzel EW @ 90/1 Charl had 3 top 20s in the majors last year and a T30th here. He's competing regularly at the top of leaderboards and although i don't think he has won on US soil i feel he's in a similar mould to Immelman when he won and feel Schwartzel can give a good account of himself this week. I feel 90/1 is more than generous! Really excited about the weekends golf ahead and will be disappointed if 1 or more of the above are not in the thick of action come Sunday evening. Good luck Chaps!:hope

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Hope its ok to post this here:unsure http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/golf/12992675.stm Interesting stuff imo.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Lowest Round Score of Event - Anthony Kim @ 67 Sportingbet Kim has shot a 65 in both his Masters appearances and in both instances this was good enough to win this market (albeit tied with one other on both occasions). As has been mentioned he is a bit eratic at times but in this kind of market that's a good thing. A guy who shoots 65 or 75 is better than a guy who shots four rounds of 69 (at least in this type of market). Clearly found form last week so this is just sucg a stonking good bet that I wasn't even able to get my full requested stake on!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 ^^ Should add too that's with Aus Sportingbet -- it's not available with UK sportingbet so far as I can tell.