TazaD Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Carlton -26.5 (1.92 @ Centebet) After a week of largely close games, this one just looks a total mismatch. A genuine top 6 contender v. a team expected to win just a handful of games... ...not that pre-season is anything major to go by (have we got a choice with GC?! :unsure), but they were belted in their last 2 challenge games...3.5 to 14.11 v. Dogs...7.12 to 17.19 v. Brisbane... ...with Dogs clearly underdone and Brisbane expected to struggle. Game is at the 'Gabba, so not even any real disadvantage for the Blues...who really did dominate Richmond last week in all areas in what could have easily been a much bigger win. Nothing ealse I like at this stage. :\ (Will no doubt be some totals and DT bets along the way. :tongue2 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiprat Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. 7/10 Gold Coast +28.5 1.92 (Sportsbet) I wasn't convinced by the Blues last week and the Suns should come out firing in their first game. Think many people are underestimating the quality of the Suns' young guns. With the number of 1st round players in there and that most of them are ready-made for AFL after playing with the big boys in the VFL (though not to the same standard as the AFL). Combined with Ablett, Rischetelli, Bock, Harbrow and co, the Suns should come close if not win. Was thinking of going outright win, but play the line to be safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. I feel Richmond can cover the +28.5 but will be waiting for a HT in-play, to follow up on theme of Saints second half fade outs. Chapman kicks more behinds than goals 2.93 @ Sportingbet Was 9-11-5 last season although is a little more accurate than that over career. The main point being he may not be at the top of his game off a restricted pre season, which can show up in made shots percentage. Inside info: Goldstein is still feeling the effects of his flu/gastro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. Hi guys, just interested in your opinion on the antepost market for the AFL. Looking at it, Collingwood seem a bit short to me (but admittedly I've been out of touch with AFL for the last year when they seem to have improved markedly!). Basically, I'm looking at how things have fared the past few years, and including last year, and surely at 13/8 or thereabouts, they're too short? Geelong (yes, with GA Jr) are still a good side and have been there or thereabouts for a number of years, and St Kilda (while bottlers) managed to push Collingwood to a replay in last years Grand Final so are these two really that much worse than the Magpies? Unsure about the drafts / recruitment over the close season so I might be way out of line but surely dutching Geelong and St Kilda @ 3.5 to win the GF might give a decent amount of value considering one of them has been in the final for the last 4 years? Any thoughts on this would be appreciated! GL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. Carlton 34-19 shots...148-127 contested possessions...49-26 clearances...80-57 tackles...69-37 I50's! :eek They were a lot better than the scoreboard suggested...not that that looks all that bad anyway now at 3/4 tonight! :unsure (You're a hard man to impress, tiprat! :D ) I found some 8.00 (Luxbet) on GS to be the lowest scoring team of the round last night... ...wasn't worth posting because after accepting a relatively small % of my requested bet they dropped the odds to 6.00 like everybody else. :@ EDIT: hornet, I personally refuse to see any value at all in sitting on a 3.5 shot for 25+ weeks...no matter how "likely" it is...which tbh in this case isn't all that anyway. I'm a pretty firm "no". :\ West Coast +16.5 (1.92 @ SportsAlive) Port a little bit tough to judge off playing the red hot Pies last week, but Eagles did look a lot better than I expected. LeCras out, but is an over-rated player anyway...co-incidentally enough he missed the game v. Port last year at home and Eagles lost by 3 points, but with 2 more shots for goal...they also had 60-34 I50's in that game! :eek ...yeah, missing LeCras I know, but also no Lynch in that game...and Darling definately looks like he can fill a hole already. They also lost @ AAMI by just 1 point late in the year with no Glass or Hurn...and although a couple of rookies did ok for Port last week they are still missing Krackouer, Schulz, Rodan, Salopek from their 'best' team. (Of last year obviously) Basically, Port aren't 3 goals better than anyone right now...Eagles keep this one close, if not win SU. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. hornet, hope I do my money cold and they go down in a screaming heap but I took 3.00 Collingwood before Rd-1, which is unheard of for myself to believe a reigning prem is overs. As you pointed out, Collingwood didn't deserve that flag but they should be a lot harder to stop this year. I can't see Saints or Geelong improving and I'm skeptical about Hawthorn & Bulldogs. It would be a big step for Carlton to go all the way. Think I'd leave the 13/8, which I suggest is a mere shade of overs, but happy to be running at 3.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. Thanks guys, interesting thoughts as you definitely know more than I do! Amazing how much the Magpies have improved (and how much the Bombers have floundered) since the 09 Anzac Day game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jugada Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. Great game last night to start the round. Saints will only be on the edge of the 8 this year. Adelaide are the team to watch this year. Will almost certainly finish top 4 in my opinion. Round 2 thoughts: Port Adelaide will put away West Coast with ease. West Coast struggled at home against North melbourne in extremely hot conditions and there best player (Mark Lecras) tore a groin in the match and will be on the sidelines for a long time. While Port Adelaide despite losing by 75 points to the best team in the comp Collingwood they still put up a very good effort and this week they go from taking on last years best team awat to last years worst team at home. Port Adelaide EASY. Port Adelaide WIN Port Adelaide over 15.5 Port Adelaide over 39.5 Carlton will give Gold Coast a thumping. No way are people under estimating Gold Coast. If anything they are being over estimated. Sure they have some good young kids in there side but look at there bottom 6 or 7 players, that is where teams get found out and the one thing Gold Coast dont have his depth. I expect Gold Coast to come out hard in the first 10 minutes but once Carlton hit the front they will just keep extending there lead. Carlton over 39.5 Carlton over 59.5 Carlton HT 37+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyDelight Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. 3/4 time Carlton 136 Gold Coast 44 :lol :rollin Knew I should've taken the -27.5 or the 1.50 on the Carlton tribet :lol At least I know which two teams I will back next week - Collingwood - Anyone playing Gold Coast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiprat Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. 7/10 Gold Coast +28.5 1.92 (Sportsbet) I wasn't convinced by the Blues last week and the Suns should come out firing in their first game. Think many people are underestimating the quality of the Suns' young guns. With the number of 1st round players in there and that most of them are ready-made for AFL after playing with the big boys in the VFL (though not to the same standard as the AFL). Combined with Ablett, Rischetelli, Bock, Harbrow and co, the Suns should come close if not win. Was thinking of going outright win, but play the line to be safe. i think it would be an understatement to say that's one of the worst reads i have ever had on a game. my bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiprat Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. i have to agree with taza, not really worth waiting till september on 3.00 chance on the magpies even though they are looking mightily impressive from the first two games, but having just played probably two bottom 8 teams. to be fair, i can't really see any team genuinely challenging them at the moment, thought we have to remember that it is a very long season and things can change very quickly in AFL. is there any feeling among you guys that it could be a case of peaking too early? think st kilda 2009, where they were the best team through the season and got done by the cats when it counted. but given the massive hype around the pies at the moment i am feeling there is value in other teams if you can see them beating this collingwood machine now now, but later in the year when it counts. i honestly still think that if st kilda can get their act together, get kosi and schneider back and then figure out a way of playing without lenny hayes there is value in the outright markets given early struggles. im not sure whats happening at the dogs and hawks but id say on their day they would give the pies a good run for their money. but i think the real dark horse here is essendon. they are playing an exciting, take-the-game-on style of football similar to collingwood and have looked very sharp over the preseason, but the big question will be whether they can sustain it over the year. if you think they can, they are good value bet to make the grand final. but im am very skeptical in a team being able to beat the pies in their own game. i think the best chance of beating the pies would somehow be to lock them down, i.e. stkilda/sydney style. i think $3.00 is too short for the pies despite how good they are looking, and once markets come out this week might look to get on the saints, or even the week after once they have their bye and regroup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpffc Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. First post in AFL threads so hopefully I bring a bit of luck. Love betting on AFL and there is so much value to find in handicaps etc. However my favorite bet is the double result bet. I have been so successful in this bet and last week I managed to pull St Kilda HT Geelong FT and Hawthorn HT Adelaide FT. This week there hasn't been a swinger yet and i feel the Sydney v Essendon game is to tight to call a winner and stand out bet is Sydney HT Essendon FT Reversed because of the teams being so level. Essendon - Sydney @ 7.00 Sydney - Essendon @ 7.00 Good Luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. Things can most certainly change in a long season, tiprat. That's why in my opinion it's more likely Collingwood won't win the flag than they will win it, but as someone who works with odds, 3.00 on a 2.50 chance = profit. That's just my opinion, anyway. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpffc Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: AFL Rd. 2. First post in AFL threads so hopefully I bring a bit of luck. Love betting on AFL and there is so much value to find in handicaps etc. However my favorite bet is the double result bet. I have been so successful in this bet and last week I managed to pull St Kilda HT Geelong FT and Hawthorn HT Adelaide FT. This week there hasn't been a swinger yet and i feel the Sydney v Essendon game is to tight to call a winner and stand out bet is Sydney HT Essendon FT Reversed because of the teams being so level. Essendon - Sydney @ 7.00 Sydney - Essendon @ 7.00 Good Luck :hope Very Happy with that. I hope some of you followed :dude :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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