Speedway 2011

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nothing for me tonight. I've looked at every market available and can't see any value in the prices at all. Good luck to anyone who plays and fingers crossed Team GB put in a good performance :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Poland won the round comfortably enough so go straight through to the final, along with Denmark who won semi-final 1. The race-off, on Thursday, will be contested by Team GB, Russia, Australia and Sweden in Poland. The top 2 from that complete the line-up for the final.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 The 2 semi's were a bit of a minefield when it came to punting on them but hopefully this is a bit more straight forward tonight on a track that many of the riders have experience on. Thursday: Speedway World Cup Race-Off 2.5pts Australia to score over 48 points - 10/11 with Bet365 Australia should win this race-off tonight and win it quite comfortably. Their line-up is full of riders who have plenty of experience on the track and on the international stage. There are rumours that Davey Watt would come in for Rory Schlein or Troy Batchelor after impressing in practice but which ever 2 ride out of that 3 they will do a good job and score a healthy total in my eyes. Chris Holder and Jason Crump are the proven stars in the side whilst Watt has bags of experience, Schlein is having a fantastic domestic season and Darcy Ward, at only 18 years of age, is impressing everyone week in week out by scoring big totals consistently. Batchelor hasn't scored a massive amount of points at the track for his Polish side over the last couple of seasons but when looking closer it can be seen why. Riding against the likes of Adams, Gollob, Pederen and Zagar is always going to be tough and finishing behind them is no disgrace. In the Team GB and Russian sides tonight there is only Sayfutdinov that i would expect to score big and all the others are close to Batchelor or worse off in terms of my expectations of how they will do. The danger to Australia is Sweden but that side has a couple of riders who aren't the greatest when it comes to consistency. Linback is hot and cold, Jonasson can be spectacular but his gating lets him down and Lindgren doesn't produce enough big scores on the biggest stages. Sweden should follow Australia through easily though. With no side having home track advantage it should just come down to who has the best side on the night and with an in form, experienced, reliable 5 Australia could well score something around the mid-50s. So, i am happy to take this in the hope they do exactly that.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Thursday: Speedway World Cup Race-Off 2.5pts Australia to score over 48 points - 10/11 with Bet365

Winner. Looked very comfortable until a small period towards the end in heats 16-21 they had a dip in form. +2.28 points for the night, +15.81 points for the season.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 It's the big one tonight! The World Cup final is held at Gorzow, Poland and will be contested by Poland, Australia, Denmark and Sweden. There will be a bumper crowd and the Poles should win it as their team looks very solid. They are superstars in their home land so the pressure will be on - a bit like if New Zealand reached this years Rugby World Cup final or like when India played in the Cricket World Cup final. An early one for me, but should have some more later on tonight..... Saturday: World Cup Final 3/5pts Poland (-4 points) to beat Australia - 5/6 with Bet365 This line looks a couple of points too short to me. As i said above, Poland should win this and i think they will do it well. They have a team packed with experience at this level and already used to the pressure that they will be under tonight to perform. The final is held at the home of Gorzow and Poland are captained by Tomasz Gollob who rides at the track week after week at domestic level. He knows the track inside out and the others have all rode it dozens of times. It is a track that suits the Polish style of racing - long, wide and the space available to blast round the boards riding the outside line. A side containing the current world champion, last years GP runner-up, another current GP rider and 2 former GP riders who are heat leaders at domestic level is always going to be competitive. Australia have a strong duo to spearhead the side in Holder and Crump. However there are weak links in that side when comparing it to Poland's. Darcy Ward is only young and, although a fantastic prospect, could find it tough against the likes of Gollob, Hampel and co. Troy Batchelor did well in the race-off at this track but looking closer at his heats, i am not surprised that he beat most of the riders he did as the Russian's and Team GB were weak. I expected Davey Watt to be replaced as he looked a lot slower than his team mates so if he lines up he will struggle massively. If he is replaced it would be Schlein in ahead of him and i think the same would apply. They have a good side when comparing it to the likes of Sweden but against the best there are a couple of weak links that could see them struggle to compete as well as they would like. Rider for rider i favour the Poles by a long way at this track. Like i said, they should win it and they won't get many last places whereas the Aussie's will be commpeting with the Dane's and Swede's for the minor places a lot of the time. Therefore, this small line looks worth taking on.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Saturday: World Cup Final 2pts A. Lindback (+0.5 points) to outscore T. Batchelor - 5/6 with Skybet If it wasn't for the meeting the other night this price would have been a lot shorter and, as i said in my first post about the final, i don't think Batchelor was THAT spectacular. He beat riders that he should be beating and although one or two rides were impressive the reality is that the race-off was a couple of levels below tonights meeting in terms of quality. Here he will come up against proven GP stars and against others who have a lot more experience of riding the Gorzow track than he has. I stated earlier in the thread that on this track over the last couple of years (before Thursday) he hasn't done too well and i said that was because he was coming up against international stars on the domestic scene. That is the case again tonight. Lindback isn't someone who i side with very often. He has bags and bags of ability but off-track problems have meant he hasn't made the progress most people expected. However, despite that, he is in the GP series and has been one of the stars of this World Cup. He was beaten by Batchelor on Thursday but that was in his opening ride and after that he went on to record 2 wins and 2 second places. He was only beaten by Sayfutdinov and Crump and that is certainly no disgrace. Also, Batchelor never had to come up against Crump so there was no chance to compare there. This is a night that calls for experience in my opinion and Lindback has plenty of that. If he rides like he has been throughout the last week he should be able to hold his own against the bigger names and beat the likes of Batchelor, Watt, Iversen and co. Throughout his career Lindback has shown his ability to be one of the most frustrating riders on the planet in terms of consistency so i have factored that into the stake. 2pts A. Jonsson (+0.5 points) to outscore C. Holder - 5/6 with Skybet This match-up could be close but i don't think Jonsson deserves to be on a positive handicap. Sweden's captain, like Lindback, has been in inspired form over the last week - leading from the front throughout with some good scores. On Thursday he was awesome, only dropping 2 points on his way to winning 4 out of his 5 rides. He is another who should maybe have done more than he has with his career but when on form he can be close to unbeatable. His gating can be right up there with the best and when in full flow he is one of the most stylish, classy riders to watch. It is tough going against Holder as i am one of his biggest fans but in the race-off Jonsson was on a level above him and, considering this is on the same track, i was surprised to see this line the way it is. Holder can gate too and is having a fantastic season so it wouldn't surprise me to see him put in another good score. If carrying on like he left off on Thursday there is every reason to believe that Jonsson will bang in a hefty points total. Hopefully too big for Holder to beat.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 7 points staked altogether and that is enough from me. It should be a great meeting to watch. Fingers crossed that the Aussie's all put in a stinker ;)

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 PS. Good Luck to anyone else that has wagers :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 An awful start from the Poles meant it was always going to be tough to win, nevermind cover the line. As for Jonsson, well, that has to be the worst i have ever seen him ride. Poor night for me. Apologies to anyone who followed.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

An awful start from the Poles meant it was always going to be tough to win, nevermind cover the line. As for Jonsson, well, that has to be the worst i have ever seen him ride. Poor night for me. Apologies to anyone who followed.

Ignore most of that (apart from the Jonsson bit :eyes ) as Poland did infact manage to cover the handicap. It must have been too many pints after the meeting which got it into my head that they never managed too! The other 2 bets still failed. -2 points on the night. Not as bad as -7 i suppose :\

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Up-to-date stats for the season: Total Staked: 104.50 points Total Returned: 118.31 points Profit/Loss: +13.81 points (not including GP outrights) Not doing too bad so far but it could always be better. There have been a couple of naive picks but i suppose everyone can say that with hindsight. Fingers crossed it can be improved on.....

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Just the one for this meeting..... Wednesday: Belle Vue vs Wolves 1.5/5pts T. Proctor (+2 points) to outscore C. Cook - 11/10 with Bet365 This is a bet based on what i saw when i watched the first fixture between these sides at Belle Vue earlier in the season. That day the track was awful and i think the performance of Proctor then was a lot better than his points total suggests. On that day Proctor didn't score very many at all but he was unlucky with engine problems. He lost a few points due to engine failures and i don't think that has been factored into this line. That day the track was a lot more dusty than usual and was very dry, something that doesn't suit Proctor so tonight he should have things more to his liking. He can be electric from the gate when on form and although he isn't having the greatest season in terms of consistency i think he can still score a few tonight. Craig Cook is going well for Belle Vue but riding at number 2 is a lot tougher than his usual reserve berth. He knows the track well but i don't think that counts for 2 points more than Proctor, certainly not odds on to cover it. He could well score a few but riding against heat leaders and not being the reserve anymore will be a tough task against the likes of Woffinden, Karlsson and Proctor. This is a good price for this line and i think that if Proctor rides like he did the last time Wolves were at Belle Vue he has a good chance of covering it. Both of these side's reserves and middle order's aren't the most reliable so that could be the key in deciding whether this wins or loses. That has been factored into the stake.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 That will be the only one for tonight. The Belle Vue fixture is a bit dodgy because a lot depends on how Gjedde, Cook and Aarnio go whilst at Kings Lynn i am tempted to back P'Boro on the handicap but they have a couple of riders who could make it really close or a comfortable home win. A bit frustrating but will just sit and hope Ty goes well to make it 1/1. :hope

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Wednesday: Belle Vue vs Wolves 1.5/5pts T. Proctor (+2 points) to outscore C. Cook - 11/10 with Bet365

A good score from Ty after a dodgy start. +1.65 points for the night. +15.46 points for the season. When comparing to the likes of Kev, Atko, Psycho and Fishy it's not bad considering the scale is 1-5 i suppose. Fingers crossed i can get back above the +20 mark :hope

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Should be a good night of Speedway, plenty of chances to get involved. Hopefully it can be profitable :hope Friday: Peterborough vs Belle Vue 2/5pts C. Harris over 10 points - 23/20 with Bet365 This line should be price at 10/11 in my opinion so there is a bit of value in it. This is a track that suits Bomber down to the ground. Big, wide and enough there to go at should he miss the gate. He has gone well here in the past and although there is some tough opposition, he could do again tonight. Last season he rode at Peterborough for Coventry 3 times and scored over 10 points twice, against track specialists such as Bjerre, Batchelor and Iversen. If Belle Vue are to avoid a heavy defeat tonight Harris needs to perform and when under that type of pressure on the English domestic scene he usually goes out and performs. As i said, there is tough opposition and that is why the stake isn't big because when up against the likes of Pedersen and Batchelor there aren't any guarantees that points will be scored easily. The home side have a solid top 5 so there are dangers to this line in every heat. At a nice price, with proven track form under his belt, i am happy to have a small investment in the GP rider to cover this line and lead from the front for his side.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Onto the next match..... Friday: Coventry vs Swindon 3.5/5pts P. Pawlicki (-1 point) to outscore M. Janowski - 10/11 with Bet365 I am surprised that this line isn't -2 points at this price, or the price on this line being around the 8/11 mark. When on form this kid Pawlicki is a joy to watch. He has an all action style, one that is suited to Coventry's track, trying inside and outside lines to pass when having to come from behind. He can gate too though. At the beginning of the season he was hugely effective riding at reserve and since moving into the top 5 he has showed that he can go out and win races when the pressure is on. The last time Janowski rode at Coventry was when the home side weren't at full strength. There was no Larsen whilst the reserve pairing on that night was slightly below the level of tonight's in terms of strength. He scored 6 points and that included a heat win, although that win was against 3 very weak riders compared to the usual Elite League standard. He claimed another point by coming 3rd in a race but in that heat he was off the pace in last position before a rider in front of him fell off. So, you could say out of those 6 points he got 4 very 'soft' ones. He will no doubt be better prepared tonight than he was then but i'm still not massively confident that he will score a big total, especially against a full strength Coventry 1-5. Pawlicki has more experience at the track and, in my opinion, has more back-up from the others in his side so the pressure on him shouldn't be too big. If it wasn't for the fact that he does have the odd fall due to trying too much at times it would have been a 4-5 point bet. 2/5pts E. Sayfutdinov to score over 11 points - 6/5 with Bet365 0.5/5pts E. Sayfutdinov to score exactly 11 points - 5/1 with Bet365 Emil stung me the last time i went in on the overs for him but i am willing to give it another go with a smaller stake. I think it's important to take the cover bet too. I don't think this Swindon side is packed with many reliable riders. Yes, the likes of Stead and Nicholls know the track very well but in terms of machinery they are definitely a couple of levels below the Russian. He hasn't scored well round Coventry so far but he has only had 2 outings and those were against sides with outstanding number one's. People like Bjerre and Pedersen are hard to beat on any track whilst in-form riders like Batchelor can be world class on their day too. Sayfutdinov has had a couple of meetings to get dialled in and, to be brutally honest, it's about time he upped his game in front of the Coventry fans as he will no doubt be on a mega wage. Tonight could be the night he does that. I hope so anyway.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 I'm leaving the Lakeside meeting alone as all the markets available for it look well priced. 8 points staked in total so a night free of mechanical problems would be fantastic :p Good luck to anyone else who gets involved!

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Friday: Coventry vs Swindon 3.5/5pts P. Pawlicki (-1 point) to outscore M. Janowski - 10/11 with Bet365 2/5pts E. Sayfutdinov to score over 11 points - 6/5 with Bet365 0.5/5pts E. Sayfutdinov to score exactly 11 points - 5/1 with Bet365 Friday: Peterborough vs Belle Vue 2/5pts C. Harris over 10 points - 23/20 with Bet365

Awful, awful, awful night. Pawlicki makes a mistake in his first ride and falls in his last ride to throw away 3 points. That 3 points would have been enough to see the line come in. Emil? Well, for a GP star he was dire in a couple of heats.....again. Disappointing. The bet on Harris wasn't looking too great but the track got worse and worse due to the weather so the meeting was abandoned. Bet void. 6 points down. Apologies to anyone who followed - by far my worst night so far. Can't wait for the GP's to start again.... EDIT: A PART OF THE TOP LINE NEEDED HIGHLIGHTING BLUE.....THEN ADDED A BIT

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nothing for tonight. A bit late in getting home but i suppose a small break may be a positive thing.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 I'm off on holiday tomorrow night so this will be my last write-up for 10 days or so..... Finally, the GP's are back and tonight it is the turn of Italy to host their round. A few picks me for again here: Saturday: Italian GP 1pt Nicki Pedersen to win - 12/1 with Bet365 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov to win - 10/1 with William Hill 0.5pt E/W Chris Harris to win - 50/1 with Paddy Power Tomasz Gollob has won this round at the same track as tonight's will be held on for the past 2 years so is a deserved favourite. However, he has been priced up fairly in my opinion and offers no value whatsoever. Nicki Pedersen is the first pick. This guy has had a good season in England and a good year in the GP's too. For the past couple of years he has been in this final at this Terenzano track so will obviously go into the round very confident of coming away with some big points. At Cardiff he showed he is back to somewhere near his best and did well to make the final where he nearly made his gate work after it had previously had no wins throughout the whole meeting. You know Nicki is on form when he is being criticised by fans all over the world. It's may seem an odd thing to say but because of his reputation he will always be jeered by some supporters and when those jeers are getting louder and louder you know he is riding at his aggressive best. I'm in the 'love him' camp but can understand why he rubs people up the wrong way. The Robbie Savage of Speedway if you like - although i'm not sure Nicki would appreciate that comparison! 12/1 is a cracking price as i would have had him at around 8/1. Emil Sayfutdinov is another who showed signs of his best form at Cardiff. If he hadn't been excluded in the final i reckon he would have went on to win it as he was flying after an ordinary start. I have sided with him in Britain a couple of times and he has let me down big time but the reality is that most of these top guys will leave lots in the tank ready for a GP where they really turn on the style. He never rode this round last year due to injury but in 2009 made the semi's so is another who will be full of confidence coming here. Nice price on him too. Chris Harris continues to be over priced so i am happy to take the 50s available. Ok, he may not be one of the big hitters like Hancock, Gollob, Crump etc. but he has proven form at this track. Last year he came 2nd in the final and the year before that made the semi finals so there is no doubting the fact that he enjoys riding in Italy. He has had an up and down year in the Elite League but has produced some good performances in the GP's. He said he needed to make changes after the British GP as far as setting up was concerned so hopefully that niggling thought about his bikes not being up to scratch is out of his mind. If riding like he has done over the last couple of years he will go close and at 50/1 i think he is well worth a small each-way investment. Good Luck to anyone else who gets involved :ok EDITS: ADDED THE COLOUR AND BOLD TO TOP LINE

[PerryPFC]

Re: Speedway 2011 Excellent write up again! Lonely place in here, but I'm following so :hope Have a good holiday and keep up the good work :clap

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Thanks mate, will be nice to go on a winner!

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Would never have predicted those semi line-ups. All the favourites (bar Greg) had a nightmare. Apologies to those who followed

[PerryPFC]

Re: Speedway 2011

Would never have predicted those semi line-ups. All the favourites (bar Greg) had a nightmare. Apologies to those who followed

Just one of those nights, no need to apologise!

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Monday: Belle Vue vs Poole 3/5pts Poole (-4 points) to beat Belle Vue - 9/10 with William Hill The Sky cameras head to Manchester tonight for a match that looks like it could give the league leaders another big points haul. Poole have won their last 3 meetings and one of those was away so they are certainly in good form. They won at this track at the beginning of the season and since then they have strengthened their side so that is a positive as far as tonight is concerned. Chris Holder is back in the side and despite having a couple of average rides here earlier in the season he seems to have got the hang of the track and if riding like he has done at the end of those meetings he will be tough to beat. The rest of the side who rode here earlier in the season went well and the arrival of Thomas H Jonasson is a massive boost. This lad got into the last 8 of a GP recently when he was the wildcard for a round so having him at reserve, and able to take 7 rides, is without doubt a huge bonus to have. He goes well against the big riders on the continent so a big points haul tonight is more likely than not. Belle Vue are very inconsistent. They picked up a good win away at Coventry recently and that was mostly thanks to an outstanding performance from Rory Schlein. The Aussie is likely to be the biggest threat to Poole but after him there isn't any more back-up that can be relied upon. Gjedde has gone well lately but with him there is always the thought that a stinker is just around the corner. Chris Harris is having well-documented machinery problems and he has never really got to grips with the small home track this season so i can't see him scoring too much. The reserves are a level below the previously mentioned THJ whilst Cook is not good enough yet to cope with the likes of Ward and Doyle. On paper, rider for rider, this looks like Poole could win by as much as 10 points. I would take this line all the way down to the 1.75 mark so 1.90 is a very nice price. Nothing else for this meeting as everything looks priced abut right so just this medium stakes bet. May be back with something for the Wolves - P'Boro match..... EDIT: SPELLING

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nope, nothing in the other meeting for me. Wolves should take all the points but Peterborough have a couple of riders in their side who could do anything tonight so it's not worth taking the risk of them having a bad night at the odds available. Also, the Panthers need to show massive improvement after getting public criticism following their awful performance a few nights ago. That may make it that bit closer.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 I'm on a terrible run at the moment but i'll keep on trying. One for tonight: Wednesday: Poole vs Peterborough 2pts Poole (-14 points) to beat Peterborough - 10/11 with Bet365 I went with Poole on Monday to beat the handicap and they weren't far off it so i'm willing to give them another go tonight against Peterborough. On Monday Holder was on fire and he was well backed-up by Ward and Jonasson. Andersson, Newman and Doyle were all disappointing so to win away from home with 3 riders off-form is a very good achievement. That shouldn't be the same tonight, certainly as far as Andersson and Doyle are concerned. There isn't much to say about the side to be honest, they are just head and shoulders above the rest of the league - even more so at home. Peterborough have been poor on their travels in recent times against the stronger sides in the league. They come here tonight without Pedersen and, even though Bjerre is a good replacement, to be without their normal number 1 is a blow. Dakota North isn't the strongest of reserves so that should cancel out the low scoring Newman. After Batchelor and Sundstrom there isn't much consistency in the side and although Buczkowski is probably the better of the remaining 3 he can have very poor nights. Those 3 will have a hard time against a consistent, strong home side and i think that could be their main downfall tonight. With Watt, Ward, Holder and Jonsasson all looking nailed on for big individual scores it will be hard for Peterborough to get a sniff of getting close here, in my opinion. So, i will have a small stake on Poole to cover this large handicap and hope they do it.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 20 point win for Poole tonight to bring in the handicap bet comfortably. Bjerre was awful but i do wonder whether he never went 100% or with his best machinery because of the GP round coming up on Saturday. +1.82 points on the night. Small profit but hopefully the rot has stopped.

[kevshat]

Re: Speedway 2011 :clap:clap:clap. Form is temporary mate but class is permanent ;).

[PerryPFC]

Re: Speedway 2011 Good work Mirage :ok