Speedway 2011

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Wednesday: Poole vs Eastbourne 3pts B. Pedersen to score more than 10 points - 11/10 with Bet365 I think Eastbourne are going to struggle tonight, big time. Their team will rely massively on Pedersen as the rest of the line-up lacks riders who will consistently trouble Poole's big hitters. For me, this line is a point too low and is one i think Bjarne will cover for us. The Eastbourne skipper knows the Poole track well having been a Poole rider in the past and he will know he has an important role to do tonight if his side are to have any chance of coming away with some points. He will get 5 rides and in both meetings he has rode at this track this season he has scored 11+ so that is a good sign. In general Bjarne has been in good form this season and on a track he knows well, in a meeting he knows he needs to perform in i reckon he will cover this low line for us to give us a nice profit.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Pedersen put in a solid performance but, unfortunately, scored bang on 10 points which was no good for us. A 3rd place in the last heat meant we lost out by 1 point.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Saturday: Eastbourne vs Wolves 4/5pts F. Lindgren to score over 11 points - 5/4 with Bet365 Short write-up as i haven't got much time.... Lindgren had a stinker at Eastbourne last year but in other meetings since 2009 he has covered this half of the time and was unlucky not to do it on one other ocassion. The Swede is the most consistent performer in the league and, against a side with not many big hitters, i can see him going close to a 15 point maximum tonight. Hopefully the meeting will go ahead. If it does, we are on a nice price here instead of the 10/11 i expected.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Well, Eastbourne's must be Freddie's bogey track as he was awful when Wolves visited there and never looked like scoring over 11. Wednesday: Kings Lynn vs Woves 2pts F. Lingren over 11 points - 5/4 with Bet365 0.5pts F. Lindgren exactly 11 points - 5/1 with Bet365 Despite a poor performance at Eastbourne i am happy to back Lindgren to put in a decent score tonight. Lindgren did well on the Kings Lynn track in the Elite League Pairs and, considering he hadn't had much experience on it before that meeting, to get 3 wins from 4 rides was impressive. In his first ride he finished 3rd behind 2 of the best Kings Lynn track specialists but then went on to win his next 3 easily. As i said before, the Swede is the most consistent big hitter in the league and that is more than can be said for most of Kings Lynn's line-up. Bjerre is good around the Norfolk Arena, don't get me wrong, but he does throw in the odd awful ride whilst Iversen, the one who is supposed to back Bjerre up, is frustratingly inconsistent. There isn't much in the middle order of Kings Lynn that worries me. I fancy Lindgren to get into double figures here and, had it not been for the other night where he was poor, this price would have been around the evens mark i feel. I am covering this by backing exactly 11 points as there is always a chance that Bjerre will go through the card in his home meetings.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Getting my picks for Saturday's GP in early, will come back with write-ups either tonight or tomorrow. I am going to this and setting off early Friday morning so won't be around at the weekend. I'm still experimenting with the staking plan for GP's. Saturday: British GP 1pt G. Hancock to win - 6/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 1pt C. Holder to win - 9/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 0.5pt E/W C. Harris to win - 25/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3) (I work for Ladbrokes so can't take the Hancock price available, so got involved with odds a bit smaller but still happy to do so).

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Wednesday: Kings Lynn vs Woves 2pts F. Lingren over 11 points - 5/4 with Bet365 0.5pts F. Lindgren exactly 11 points - 5/1 with Bet365

Lindgren scored 12 points so that brought the overs bet in. It takes us to +11.91 points for the season, without those outrights for this Saturday.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Getting my picks for Saturday's GP in early, will come back with write-ups either tonight or tomorrow. I am going to this and setting off early Friday morning so won't be around at the weekend. I'm still experimenting with the staking plan for GP's. Saturday: British GP 1pt G. Hancock to win - 6/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 1pt C. Holder to win - 9/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 0.5pt E/W C. Harris to win - 25/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3) (I work for Ladbrokes so can't take the Hancock price available, so got involved with odds a bit smaller but still happy to do so).

So, onto the write-ups for these. Greg Hancock's price for this is way too big at 6's. I've been going to Cardiff for this GP for a good 7 or 8 years and there is not a more consistent rider round the place than this man. He has made the final 5 out of the 7 times and won it on one of those occassions. In 2007 he was leading the final until the very last bend when he was narrowly beaten by Chris Harris so was unlucky not to win it there. This year he has been consistent in each of the previous rounds, making the final on 2 occassions from 3 GP's (the Swedish one can be ignored as it was abandoned). That has taken him to 2nd in the overall standings, just 1 point behind the reigning World Champion. Hancock is quick out the gate and is able to adapt quickly to changing surfaces, both of which are required at the Millenium Stadium. I simply cannot see how he won't make the semi finals and from there, with his experience, we will be able to rely on him not buckling under the pressure. For me, Hancock should have been around the 4/1 mark for this round. Chris Holder won this in 2010, and was quite simply awesome in the final. He demonstrated his world class gating ability in that race to win comfortably to claim his first GP win. This season he is 5th in the standings and going well, scoring consistently to show that he has learnt from that debut Grand Prix season last year. He is a consistent big scorer at club level and will have plenty of support here from his UK fans at Poole. I would have had the Aussie at 7/1. Lastly, i think Chris Harris deserves a small stake at a price that i feel is probably 5-7 points too big. Bomber knows how to win here, having done so back in 2007. In the last GP we backed him after outlining his ability to do well on temporary tracks and the same reasoning is given here. In that Danish GP he was on good form and his points tally would have been even more impressive had it not been for some unbelievably biased refereeing decisions in favour of Denmark's former World Champion. Cardiff's track does provide some good racing lines so that suits Harris all day long and the Brit's gating consistency is steadily improving so that is a very good sign. This GP is probably even more wide open than the Danish GP so finding a winner will be tough. I would put Crump and Hampel as the other contenders whilst Gollob's price is far too short. Although he is the current world number 1, this track is the complete opposite of what he likes. He prefer's wide open, big tracks to really go full throttle on. Here, it is relatively small so being as short as 3/1 is, well, just wrong.

[Labrador]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nice info again, Mirage. Hope you enjoy your trip to Cardiff. I've followed you on Hancock (13/2 with Hills) and Holder, although have gone with them both each way.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Fingers crossed they do the business! It is wide open but hopefully we will get our first GP winner from it.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Saturday: British GP 1pt G. Hancock to win - 6/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 1pt C. Holder to win - 9/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 0.5pt E/W C. Harris to win - 25/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

A good GP for us with Hancock winning the final to bring in a profit of 4 points. Holder came 3rd so we went into the race having a good chance of coming out of it with a winner. Harris had a stinker, very poor. That 4 point profit takes us to +15.91 for the season.

[kevshat]

Re: Speedway 2011 Great work Mirage :clap:clap:clap.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Monday: Peterborough vs Kings Lynn 2/5pts Kings Lynn (+8 points) to win - 10/11 with Skybet The weather forecast isn't looking too great at the moment so there are doubts about whether this meeting will go ahead but, with it being on Sky, everything will be done to ensure it is. Besides, even if the track is wet and this meeting does take place, it will make this tie a lot more level. In the Kings Lynn ranks are 4 former Peterborough riders, and all 4 are on form. We all saw at the British GP just how well Bjerre can ride whilst the pairing at 3 and 4 of Allen and Korneliussen are on fire at the moment. Iversen has has completed hundreds of laps around the place too. So, those 4 knowing this track inside out is a big positive. Peterborough have an equally in-form number 1 in the shape of Nicki Pedersen and the back-up from Batchelor is usually very good. However, i think the other 2 riders in their top 5 are a bit inconsistent whilst they are also operating rider replacement at number 4 where not many of the team can take the extra outing. They do have a brilliant reserve in Kosciuch but Lawson is there to be shot ot in my opinion. Kings Lynn's side has good knowledge of the Peterborough track so i think they will keep things close tonight. However, the fact that Kosiuch could take 7 rides from reserve is enough to make me lower my stake considerably. If the Kings Lynn reserves chip in with 8 points or so this line should be covered, so fingers crossed they do.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Monday: Peterborough vs Kings Lynn 2/5pts Kings Lynn (+8 points) to win - 10/11 with Skybet The weather forecast isn't looking too great at the moment so there are doubts about whether this meeting will go ahead but, with it being on Sky, everything will be done to ensure it is. Besides, even if the track is wet and this meeting does take place, it will make this tie a lot more level. In the Kings Lynn ranks are 4 former Peterborough riders, and all 4 are on form. We all saw at the British GP just how well Bjerre can ride whilst the pairing at 3 and 4 of Allen and Korneliussen are on fire at the moment. Iversen has has completed hundreds of laps around the place too. So, those 4 knowing this track inside out is a big positive. Peterborough have an equally in-form number 1 in the shape of Nicki Pedersen and the back-up from Batchelor is usually very good. However, i think the other 2 riders in their top 5 are a bit inconsistent whilst they are also operating rider replacement at number 4 where not many of the team can take the extra outing. They do have a brilliant reserve in Kosciuch but Lawson is there to be shot ot in my opinion. Kings Lynn's side has good knowledge of the Peterborough track so i think they will keep things close tonight. However, the fact that Kosiuch could take 7 rides from reserve is enough to make me lower my stake considerably. If the Kings Lynn reserves chip in with 8 points or so this line should be covered, so fingers crossed they do.

A good fightback from Kings Lynn brings this bet in. +17.73 points now overall.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Thursday: Birmingham vs Belle Vue 2pts Chris Harris to score over 10 points - 23/20 with Bet365 0.5pts Chris Harris to score exactly 10 points - 5/1 with Bet365 I'm willing to take a small interest in Harris turning around his dip in form against the Brummies tonight at good odds. The GP man hasn't been too great recently and he had a stinker at Cardiff, aswell as last night. I wouldn't take the latter of those 2 too seriously though as Poole have a hugely powerful top 3 so going to their track is always a struggle when they are on good form. Tonight he is coming up against much weaker opposition at a track that has enough racing lines to suit him down to the ground. Kasprzak, the Brummies number 1, has had a very bad last few weeks and after that there is nobody who has the machinery to cope with an on-form Harris. I am confident he will score 11+ but, after a small poor patch, i would advise a small saver on exaclty 10 points. EDIT: DAY WRONG IN HEADER

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Just the Harris bet for me tonight. In the other meeting Nicholls' showing at Cardiff is tempting me to back Lakeside (who have a very strong reserve) on the handicap but with Nicholls he could bounce back well enough to inspire his teams. The over/unders and match-ups are priced up well by the bookies.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Thursday: Birmingham vs Belle Vue 2pts Chris Harris to score over 10 points - 23/20 with Bet365 0.5pts Chris Harris to score exactly 10 points - 5/1 with Bet365 I'm willing to take a small interest in Harris turning around his dip in form against the Brummies tonight at good odds. The GP man hasn't been too great recently and he had a stinker at Cardiff, aswell as last night. I wouldn't take the latter of those 2 too seriously though as Poole have a hugely powerful top 3 so going to their track is always a struggle when they are on good form. Tonight he is coming up against much weaker opposition at a track that has enough racing lines to suit him down to the ground. Kasprzak, the Brummies number 1, has had a very bad last few weeks and after that there is nobody who has the machinery to cope with an on-form Harris. I am confident he will score 11+ but, after a small poor patch, i would advise a small saver on exaclty 10 points. EDIT: DAY WRONG IN HEADER

Winner. Harris went through the card to get a 15 point maximum. +1.80 points on the night takes us to +19.53 points for the season.

[kevshat]

Re: Speedway 2011 Excellent stuff again mate :ok.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Cheers mate! Good to have some comfortable winners come in every now and then isn't it?! :cheers

[kevshat]

Re: Speedway 2011 My favourite kind of winner mate :nana

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Finally, Bet365 have put their markets up for tonight's meetings. Friday: Coventry vs Kings Lynn 3pts E. Sayfutdinov to score over 12 points - 11/8 with Bet365 1pt E. Sayfutdinov to score exactly 12 points - 5/1 with Bet365 As soon as i saw this line/price i was eager to get on it. The Russian sensation makes his home debut tonight but the fact that it is his first time on this track doesn't worry me. Coventry's circuit is the right shape and size to suit Emil down to the ground and after his performance at Cardiff there are signs that he is close to his absolute best. His best is far too good for almost everyone in this league and that's because of his better machinery and passing ability. His gating has improved a lot since he first came into the GP's and that is important anywhere. There isn't too much in this Kings Lynn side that worries me. Bjerre is in good form but if both Emil and the Kings Lynn number 1 are on top form the Russian will come out on top 90% of the time. After Bjerre there is nothing that, all things being equal, should beat him. This is a high stake considering the line is set at 12 (hence the smaller saver) but i think he will be eager to impress and will do exactly that.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 First race engine failure for Emil by the sounds of it :eyes Uphill task for us to get something here.....

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Finally, Bet365 have put their markets up for tonight's meetings. Friday: Coventry vs Kings Lynn 3pts E. Sayfutdinov to score over 12 points - 11/8 with Bet365 1pt E. Sayfutdinov to score exactly 12 points - 5/1 with Bet365

Bad night, apologies to anyone who followed. Hindsight suggests the line was far to high to go in that big but i suppose at the same time machinery problems can always pop up......like in heat 1. Oh well, a lesson or two learnt there.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 The first Team World Cup semi-final takes place in Vojens, Denmark tomorrow night. Denmark, Sweden, Australia and Germany will race with the top team progressing and the 2nd and 3rd going into the race-off. GB, Poland, Russia and Czech Republic compete in the other semi-final and that takes place at King's Lynn's track on Monday night. All the meetings are live on Sky. The race-off is on Thursday and the final takes place on Saturday night. Those meetings take place in Poland at the same stadium.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 No outright for who will lift the World Cup from me. Poland should do it with the team they have, the support they will enjoy and the home track advantage. I was looking to oppose them but at the prices i cannot see any value. Saturday: Team World Cup Semi-Final 1 2pts Australia to win - 6/5 with Paddy Power This price is good enough for me. It's the lowest i would want before getting involved so any shorter and i don't think it would have represented any value at all. The Aussie's come here with a maor chance to go through to the final as the top scorers from their semi-final. Their team, on paper, is very strong with 1 multiple world champion, another current GP regular, the hottest young prospect in speedway and 2 other's with plenty of experience in this event. Jason Crump will spearhead the side and at any track he is always a danger. He never rode for the team last season and that was the big reason why they never reached the final. That was at this track and the team was less prepared going into it than this time around. Holder is now a multiple GP winner and he will beat anyone when on form as he is an electric gater. Add to that Darcy Ward and that is a powerful top 3. Ward is relatively young but he is the future (along with Holder and Sayfutdinov) as far as world champion's are concerned. Already, he is a big hitter for his domestic teams and his all action style means he is never out of a race. The next 2 are less high profile but can be equally capable of scoring good points. Rory Schlein was the top scorer for his country this time last year and for me he comes into this in even better form than he was then. He is consistently good in Britain and the experience on this stage will be a massive advantage. Troy Batchelor is a young lad too and, although probably the least likely to top score for his country here, he beats the top riders in the Elite League regularly enough to come into this without any fear. Of the others; Germany will come dead last as there isn't enough quality in their side to trouble the other 3. Denmark are rightly joint favourites with the Aussies but rider for rider i favour the men from down under despite the Dane's home track advantage. Sweden could cause an upset and win it but the likes of Lindback and Jonasson are known for their inconsistency whilst Lindgren and Jonsson seem to have a mentality problem when it comes to the international and GP stage. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dane's take this whilst Sweden could do the same if all their riders fire together. That is a big 'if' though. So, the stake is low because of these 2 having the potential to win but i am confident enough to bet on the Aussie's to do the business for us. May be back with more in other market's tomorrow, about 5pm.....

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 No more from me for tonight's meeting. There are a lot of things available to bet on but i can't find anything else worth getting involved in. Fingers crossed the Aussie's are on form for us.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 A bit of an odd night in terms of some results. Batchelor and Schlein being way below par are the major reasons the Aussie's have lost this. Well, that and some consistently good riding from the Dane's.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Speedway 2011 Some excellent work in here, mirage :clap I followed you on Crump & Holder for World championship outright. I'm not the biggest speedway fan, but like watching it when I catch it on TV. I am also easily confused but know the 'elite' stuff is a team league, how and when is the world championship decided? I think Crump has Been out injured but how is Holder getting on? I was watching some meeting the other week and he seemed to win everything! A quick progress update would go down a treat! Much appreciated in advance :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Some excellent work in here, mirage :clap I followed you on Crump & Holder for World championship outright. I'm not the biggest speedway fan, but like watching it when I catch it on TV. I am also easily confused but know the 'elite' stuff is a team league, how and when is the world championship decided? I think Crump has Been out injured but how is Holder getting on? I was watching some meeting the other week and he seemed to win everything! A quick progress update would go down a treat! Much appreciated in advance :ok

Cheers mate. I have been watching the sport for years now but this is my first full season betting on it so to end in a profit, however big/small, would be great. Firstly, the Elite League is our equivalent of the English Premier League in Football. The Speedway Premier League is the equivalent of the Championship. The top riders race in the Elite League whilst some of the lesser Elite League riders also double up for a Premier League side if their schedule allows it. The World Cup is split into 4 stages and that is what we are into now. The lesser teams like Germany and Czech Republic had to qualify to reach this stage. Tonight was the first semi-final and the other one is on Monday. The top team in each goes straight into the final whilst the 2nd and 3rd from each goes into a race-off held at the same track as the final. The top 2 from the race-off head to the final and that is this coming Saturday. We are going ok in the GP's as far as the outrights are concerned. Crump is some way off the lead but he is looking as though he is coming into better form now and there is still a long way to go. Holder has probably turned into our best chance of a return. The guy is consisntent, has gating ability to rival the best and has a great temperament. That was seen at Cardiff when he recovered form a dodgy first couple of rides to make the final. Gollob and Hancock will take some stopping, whilst Sayfutdinov could make a late challenge, but in both Holder and Crump we have 2 riders who will be in the mix at every GP round so fingers crossed.

[Labrador]

Re: Speedway 2011 It's interesting that Coral are a standout 8/15 about Poland for tonight's 2nd semi-final at Kings Lynn. Unlike other firms they do not seem to have realised the situation with the Russian team which they have priced up at only 6/1. It appears that Sayfutdinov is not turning out for Russia, and there is some suggestion they will only have 4 riders, hence the massive prices with the other bookmakers. With Poland 1/3, 4/11 etc elsewhere, I couldn't resist taking 8/15 at Corals.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 I agree Poland should win but for me i wouldn't take anything under 4/7. Kings Lynn is a specialist track and whilst a couple of the Poles have rode it and the others are top riders anyways there is always the chance of someone having a stinker there. Kasprzak hasn't been convincing lately whilst Kolodziej is a bit hit and miss so that is enough to make me want a bigger price. They should, on paper at least, cruise through though.