Speedway 2011

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Can't see much being put up in here from me until late next week now. A combination of uni exams and work in between makes it just about impossible to find the time.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nothing tonight. Apparently the weather has been bad in the area so i don't fancy getting involved with the possibility of a poor track and/or the meeting being abandoned.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Saturday: Czech GP 1.5pts E/W Nicki Pedersen to win - 9/1 with Bet365 (1,2,3 1/4 odds) An early one here at a great price. Nicki has been in good form this season. He won the first GP of this years series and has been banging in good scores at club level too. The performance of every rider in the 2nd GP round can be ignored as the meeting was a farce. Pedersen has form at this track, having won the round in both 2007 and 2008. He finished 5th in 2009 whilst last year he came 2nd to the eventual series champion, Tomasz Gollob, in the final. So, form figures of 2511 in the last 4 seasons here is very impressive. There are around 10 riders who go to every GP round with a serious chance in my book so picking a rider to make the final is hard enough, nevermind a winner. However, there is value to be had and i would say this price is an example as, for me, it could be argued that he should be around 6s. So, 9/1 for an in-form rider who already has a GP win under his belt this year is good enough to get involved with. Hopefully he will do the business for us this Saturday evening.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Just to add, Jason Crump has a serious chance this weekend in my book but, despite his good scores at club level since, he is still recovering from injury and i think that has been factored into the price to make it about right. At the moment i am still considering whether to get involved or not. May be back with more before the tapes go up on Saturday night.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Saturday: Czech GP 1pt E/W Jaroslaw Hampel to win - 9/1 with Bet 365 (1,2,3 1/4 odds) Like the Pedersen bet, i think this price represents fantastic value. Hampel is another with great past form at the track and last years series runner-up has started the year well. He made the final of this years first round and since then has been scoring well at club level as expected. On Tuesday he top scored for his Swedish side despite having the likes of Gollob and Crump in the same meeting and that proves that he is in fine shape. Jaroslaw has ridden at this track 4 times so far in his GP career and has brilliant form figures of 3423. To consistently make the final at one track is very impressive and for him to have done that in the past will put him in a great frame of mind coming here. This was going to be at the same stake as the Pedersen bet but i still feel that Nicki's extra time with the new silencer's gives him a slight advantage. However, Hampel has proved he can come here and challenge for the GP win and hopefully he will do that to boost his World Championhip chances. Again, i think the price should be around 2 points shorter.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 So close tonight..... Pedersen made the semi-finals whilst Hampel was just beaten in the final after a great battle with Greg Hancock. A small loss of 1.75pts on the night but some promising signs!

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Tuesday: Somerset vs Sheffield 3pts Sam Masters to score over 6.5 points - 5/6 with Skybet Tonight see's Sky travel to Somerset to broadcast Premier League action for this week's live meeting. This should be a cracker on a great race track. I really like this line for Masters. Yes, Sheffield are a strong side but from 4 rides, at least, i would expect Masters to score 7 or more in all home meetings. In the last 5 meetings that he has rode at the OTA for Somerset he has covered this line on 4 occassions and the one in which he never he suffered some bad luck in his opening race which meant he effectively only had the chance to score in 3 rides. He has been banging in big totals consistently so far this year and has done so against some strong sides like Ipswich so Sheffield being the opposition here doesn't worry me too much. The Tigers have Ashworth, Parker, Auty and Skidmore in their side but i would give Masters a good chance against all of those and even if he didn't beat them, he would have an even better chance of coming in 2nd should they win the heat. Somerset have made a fine start to the season and should be up there come the end of the campaign with Sam Masters being a key figure in a strong top 5. So, hopefully he will have a good run tonight and, if that is the case, this line could even be covered with a ride to spare. Fingers crossed.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Tuesday: Somerset vs Sheffield 3pts Sam Masters to score over 6.5 points - 5/6 with Skybet Tonight see's Sky travel to Somerset to broadcast Premier League action for this week's live meeting. This should be a cracker on a great race track. I really like this line for Masters. Yes, Sheffield are a strong side but from 4 rides, at least, i would expect Masters to score 7 or more in all home meetings. In the last 5 meetings that he has rode at the OTA for Somerset he has covered this line on 4 occassions and the one in which he never he suffered some bad luck in his opening race which meant he effectively only had the chance to score in 3 rides. He has been banging in big totals consistently so far this year and has done so against some strong sides like Ipswich so Sheffield being the opposition here doesn't worry me too much. The Tigers have Ashworth, Parker, Auty and Skidmore in their side but i would give Masters a good chance against all of those and even if he didn't beat them, he would have an even better chance of coming in 2nd should they win the heat. Somerset have made a fine start to the season and should be up there come the end of the campaign with Sam Masters being a key figure in a strong top 5. So, hopefully he will have a good run tonight and, if that is the case, this line could even be covered with a ride to spare. Fingers crossed.

Comfortable enough this one. A 3rd and 2 wins in his first 3 rides meant the line was covered with a programmed ride to spare. +9.02pts for the season now.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 The Team GB vs Australia test series has returned this season and the first of the 3 rounds gets underway tonight..... Wednesday: Team GB vs Australia 4/5pts Jason Doyle (+2 points) to outscore Ben Barker - 10/11 with Bet365 Well, i can't believe how this line has been set/priced. Both of these start at reserve tonight and there is no doubting the fact that they are both capable of hitting big scores should they turn up in the type of form that everyone knows they are capable of. Having said that though, i still hugely favour the Aussie to outscore Barker with the 2 point start, and even if the line was set at scratch at a similar price i would have been tempted to back him. Doyle is a Poole rider and, as the Aussie team manager has said, he 'knows the Poole track like the back of his hand'. He has rode 5 home meetings so far for Poole this term and averages 8 points from 4 programmed rides. What makes that stat even more impressive is that he has ridden all those meetings in the main body (positions 1-5) of the side and that is a lot tougher than the reserve position he will be riding from tonight. As well as himself, there is another 3 riders in the Aussie line-up who ride for Poole this season so the side is full of track specialists to back him up with good points. Barker is hugely talented and there aren't many more entertaining riders than him when he is in full flow. However, his past record here isn't the greatest. From 3 meetings with Coventry here last season he averaged just 3.38 points from 4 programmed rides whilst riding in the main body of the side, like Doyle. Comparing that figure with Doyle shows just how good Jason is. Barker's gating often lets him down whilst he is also prone to the odd error when going after the opposition too hard. Like i said in the previous paragraph, there are 4 home track riders in opposition to Barker tonight so he will have a job to get much when coming up against those. I would also put Schlein and Batchelor a bit ahead of him as far as consistency goes whilst Proctor can produce the goods on his day too. Normally, looking at the points made above, this would be a 5pt maximum bet but Barker is hugely talented and his ability to pass is enough to cut it down a point. Still though, i fancy Doyle to do the business for a strong Australian side.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 No more bets from me tonight. The above bet has shortened in price so fingers crossed Doyle does what we need him to do.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 An eventful meeting tonight which ended in a great win for Team GB. Doyle fell in his 4th ride and dislocated his shoulder in the process, resulting in him having to leave the meeting and go to the hospital. I have no doubt that he would have got the extra ride in heat 14 had he not injured himself in the crash. That left Barker to draw level on the night with 6 points in total but the extra 2 points for us from the handicap means Doyle wins it 8 points to 6. So, +3.64 points on the night takes us to +12.66 points for the season.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Thursday: Birmingham vs Coventry 2pts Eddie Kennett to outscore Daniel Nermark - Evens with Bet365 I wasn't going to get involved in this bet but the price has drifted enough to provide some value in my eyes. When these 2 last met around Birmingham's track we were on Kennett that night, except then he had a 2 point start on the handicap and we went fairly large with the stake. That night he would have covered this scratch line too as he scored 10 points to Nermark's 9. Now, that looks fairly close but Eddie could have covered it a whole lot easier. He scored those 10 points in his first 4 rides before running out of steam in his last 2 where he failed to score in either. This proves that he goes well around the Perry Bar track and a repeat of that performance should put us in with a great chance. He is in good shape and that was proven last night where he scored a solid 9 points against a very tough Australian side at Poole. The reason for the fairly small stake is that the Coventry side is pretty weak on paper. That means that Nermark, who is by no means a pushover, should be able to pick up some fairly easy points against the likes of Sweetman and Kurtz whilst the Proctor and Fisher are the type of riders he should be beating at home. Both of these will have 5 rides each with a possible 6th for each available in heat 15, should they be nominated.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Eddie covered it comfortably tonight for us, despite one race in which he was excluded for bringing an opponent down. He scored 12 points to Nermark's 8. The 2 points profit tonight means the figures for me so far this season are..... Bets - 24 Win - 13 Lose - 9 Void - 2 Total Staked - 62.50pts Total Returned - 78.16pts Profit/Loss - +15.66pts (Doesn't include 2 GP outrights as they have a long way to go yet before being settled) Hopefully the profit will rise further over the coming months.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 It's the British Final tonight and it will be shown live on Sky from the Monmore track. I will be there so i'm putting up my selections early before i set off. Monday: British Final 2.5pts Scott Nicholls to win - 5/2 with Skybet Before looking at the odds on the outright market for this meeting i had in my mind that Nicholls should be favourite, despite the fact that Harris has been the champion for the last 2 seasons with the latter of those titles being won at this track. Nicholls has won this 5 times and even though he is not competing in the GP's anymore he is still able to beat just about anyone in British domestic Speedway. He also goes well around Monmore and in last years meeting here he was only beaten by one rider and after that happened, in the first heat, he went on to win all of his last 4 programmed rides. He went into the final as the highest scorer from the heats but was beaten by Harris so finished 2nd. Looking at the meetings from 2008 onwards at Monmore for his club sides he has averaged 11 points from 5 rides and that has been against Monmore specialists such as Freddie Lindgren and Peter Karlsson. He won't be facing riders here who are anywhere near as good at the track so he should be able to pick up a bit more than the 11 and reach the final. From there, it's a 1 race game and i would back him against anyone in this field to come out on top. His gating is top class against this type of opposition and that is the main reason i favour him over Harris. He has proven Monmore form and i feel he should reach the final comfortably. Personally, i would have had him at 2/1 for this instead of Harris so the 5/2 is a bonus.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Monday: British Final 0.5pts E/W Ben Barker to win - 20/1 with Skybet (1/5 odds 1,2,3) Ben Barker has improved this season a great deal and this type of occasion is exactly what suits his personality. He is thought of as being arrogant/cocky by a lot of fans so the confidence in his own ability is sky high. Therefore, when lining up against the likes of Nicholls, Harris, Kennett etc. he will not be the type to give them too much respect. He has an all action style and although, at times, he can over-do it when trying to pass riders we will know we are in with a chance here no matter where he is in the race. This bet is more based on Barker's riding style and attitude than club form at Monmore but he did go well here last year. He reached the final after scoring well in his heats but came in 3rd after getting out of shape on the first bend. His club form this year has been good so he comes into this in fine shape . I had him at 14/1 when pricing this up so the 20/1 is brilliant each way value.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 I have got involved in this earlier than i normally would because of the fact i am going but if anyone is going to follow these selections or go with other riders it maybe worth holding on until the other firms release their prices. Bet365 are normally pretty good with their odd but haven't put them up yet. Of course, it could be that they are worse and Skybet's odds shorten so i suppose it's up to you whether you take that chance..... For mine, i was happy with the odds i took as i think they are good value.

[AJSmith27]

Re: Speedway 2011 Excellent tipping Mirage. I read your tips earlier because I don't have a clue about Speedway but, having had a bet on it once before when someone I worked with was into it, I thought I'd give it a go. I followed you on Barker, thought the each-way would give me a better run for my money, but it just wasn't to be. I'll look out for you more often when it comes to Speedway, cheers!

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Cheers :D I was a bit disappointed with Barker, he didn't look as though he would get close to the bigger names when he needed to all night but happy with Nicholls doing the business. Barker was 12/1 in places so we certainly got a good price :ok Will update figures later.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 So, Scott did well in the final to give us a winner and that meant that we finished last night +5.25pts. That takes us to +20.91 overall this season. RE: Barker. He has never really gone wel round the track for his club and last night he showed more of that sort of form than the type when he made the final in the same event last year. He was his usual inconsistent self.

[AJSmith27]

Re: Speedway 2011 Whilst I obviously don't know what I'm talking about, I was very impressed with Tai Woffinden and I'll be watching out for him in the future. He showed incredible bravery to keep going after each fall, despite, what looked like, advice against doing so from medical staff. He got away best in the first re-run of the final and, had he held off Kennett (I think that was his name) instead of them both coming down, he had a real chance of winning, which would have been a superb achievement. Still, at 20, I don't see that being his last crack at the British title.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Whilst I obviously don't know what I'm talking about, I was very impressed with Tai Woffinden and I'll be watching out for him in the future. He showed incredible bravery to keep going after each fall, despite, what looked like, advice against doing so from medical staff. He got away best in the first re-run of the final and, had he held off Kennett (I think that was his name) instead of them both coming down, he had a real chance of winning, which would have been a superb achievement. Still, at 20, I don't see that being his last crack at the British title.

Yeah i felt for Tai as he was outstanding in every ride until the very last one that mattered. When trying to find the winner i thought the meeting came too soon for him after only just coming back from a serious injury but he didn't half prove me wrong! Both Kennett and himself will be right up there at the business end for a few years to come.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Nothing from me for tonight's matches. Kozza Smith being at reserve for Belle Vue at Kings Lynn makes that match looks very unpredictable to me in terms of rider points and the handicap. Poole could be set for a big win but it all depends on whether Woffinden is feeling any ill effects after his tumbles on Monday so i am leaving that one alone. The overs/unders look about right.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Getting in an early outright for Saturday's Grand Prix as i can't see the price being much better closer to the day. Saturday: Danish GP 1.5pts E/W J. Hampel to win - 13/2 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3) I was pleasantly surprised to see this available when i was having a brief look at the market earlier today. Considering he won this round last year at the same track and is coming into it this season off the back of a good final appearace i would have had him around 5s. To refresh my memory of last years Danish GP i watched some replays of the races and they reminded me of just how good Jarek was. He recorded 5 fine wins out of his 7 rides aswell as a 2nd place and a last place finish in his final programmed ride. His race wins were all very comfortable, pinging out the gate well to have the track all to himself. In the final he rode some great lines to keep his challenger's at bay and if he reproduces that sort of form for us again we will be in with a great chance. With Parken only being a Speedway venue for this GP it brings the field closer together as everybody has to get used to the way the track rides. That makes last years performance from Hampel even more impressive. It is big enough in size to suit the Poland international and, as we know, he can gate with the best of them. Hancock will no doubt be a danger as he has started off the year superbly whilst i would have Gollob as a worthy favourite. Gollob has a great record here but on a temporary track, against 15 other riders the 7/2 is a bit too short for my liking. Besides, we are getting a good price on an in-form rider who has done well here before so i'm happy to get involved.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Getting in an early outright for Saturday's Grand Prix as i can't see the price being much better closer to the day. Saturday: Danish GP 1.5pts E/W J. Hampel to win - 13/2 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3) I was pleasantly surprised to see this available when i was having a brief look at the market earlier today. Considering he won this round last year at the same track and is coming into it this season off the back of a good final appearace i would have had him around 5s. To refresh my memory of last years Danish GP i watched some replays of the races and they reminded me of just how good Jarek was. He recorded 5 fine wins out of his 7 rides aswell as a 2nd place and a last place finish in his final programmed ride. His race wins were all very comfortable, pinging out the gate well to have the track all to himself. In the final he rode some great lines to keep his challenger's at bay and if he reproduces that sort of form for us again we will be in with a great chance. With Parken only being a Speedway venue for this GP it brings the field closer together as everybody has to get used to the way the track rides. That makes last years performance from Hampel even more impressive. It is big enough in size to suit the Poland international and, as we know, he can gate with the best of them. Hancock will no doubt be a danger as he has started off the year superbly whilst i would have Gollob as a worthy favourite. Gollob has a great record here but on a temporary track, against 15 other riders the 7/2 is a bit too short for my liking. Besides, we are getting a good price on an in-form rider who has done well here before so i'm happy to get involved.

Bet365 have just put their odds up and Hampel is as short as 4/1 with them so anyone is wanting to back Hampel at this price should get on as soon as possible :ok

[Labrador]

Re: Speedway 2011 Excellent thread, mate:ok. Hope I'm not jinxing you by going with your tip on Hampel.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Excellent thread, mate:ok. Hope I'm not jinxing you by going with your tip on Hampel.

Thanks :) Nah, if he is going to win he is going to win no matter who is on him. Fingers crossed he does the business for us :hope I may have another selection for it yet but Hampel will still be the strongest fancy.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Saturday: Danish GP 0.5pts E/W Chris Harris to win - 50/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3) Well, this could prove to be stupid or inspired. It's more than likely to be the former, hence the stake, but i think there is enough in his favour at this track to be worth a small punt. Last year he made the final here and finished up in 3rd place which was by no means a bad effort considering the form Hampel was in and the fact Gollob always go well at the stadium. Before that 3rd place though his form here has been awful. However, with this track being temporary i think form at the British GP (which is held at the Millenium Stadium) is worth checking. Harris had made the semi finals and won the competition in 3 of his 4 appearances there so his ability to adapt to conditions is pretty good. Also, he was in good form in the British Final on Monday too. He was a class above everyone bar Woffinden in 4 of his 6 races when he beat everyone he was up against with ease. His gating looked good and if that is carried forward into this meeting he should go well. As i said before in my previous tip, with this track only being laid to hold this GP the field are brought closer together so, in theory, it shouldn't be a surprise to see anyone win. With Bomber having form on newly built tracks i think he is worth a very small punt to go well.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Thursday: Birmingham vs Lakeside 2pts P. Swiderski (+2 points) to outscore D. Nermark - 5/4 with Bet365 I don't understand why this line has been set the way it has with both having their 4 programmed rides and each able to take an extra rider replacement ride to cover for their injured team-mates. If this was the line when Lakeside last visited Birmingham Swiderski would have covered it. Infact, he scored 8 points to Nermark's 7 so would have done so off scratch. Nermark has been solid at home all season and i expect him to go well again tonight but he will do well to beat the likes of Richardson and an inform Robson whilst Nieminen has the ability to go well too. This is Lakeside's first meeting for a while but i feel they will put up a good fight tonight. Swiderski has experience of the track so that won't be a problem but he has been injured recently so that is enough to reduce this stake by a couple of points. If fully fit, i am confident he will be able to cover this for us.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011

Thursday: Birmingham vs Lakeside 2pts P. Swiderski (+2 points) to outscore D. Nermark - 5/4 with Bet365 I don't understand why this line has been set the way it has with both having their 4 programmed rides and each able to take an extra rider replacement ride to cover for their injured team-mates. If this was the line when Lakeside last visited Birmingham Swiderski would have covered it. Infact, he scored 8 points to Nermark's 7 so would have done so off scratch. Nermark has been solid at home all season and i expect him to go well again tonight but he will do well to beat the likes of Richardson and an inform Robson whilst Nieminen has the ability to go well too. This is Lakeside's first meeting for a while but i feel they will put up a good fight tonight. Swiderski has experience of the track so that won't be a problem but he has been injured recently so that is enough to reduce this stake by a couple of points. If fully fit, i am confident he will be able to cover this for us.

Bet void. Frustrated.....frustrated......frustrated. Swiderski was well on his way to covering this line unbelievably comfortably when, with 3 heats remaining, the meeting was abandoned due to heavy rain. So, as per Bet365 rules, the bet was voided.

[Mirage]

Re: Speedway 2011 Well, neither Hampel or Harris got to the final unfortunately after both failing to finish in the top 2 of their semi's. Still though, a good night for the outrights.