UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

[western skies]

	Wednesday 6 April 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Chelsea v Manchester United (19:45 GMT)	2.25	3.35	3.68	101.47 %
	FC Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk (19:45 GMT)	1.26	7	13.5	101.01 %

[Wittek]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April BARCELLONA - SHAKTAR DONETSK Barcellona -1,75 2,00 sbobet I took in the opening line in Asia, but I posted in wrong tread, as written long ago, I believe that this handicap is affordable for the armor Barcelona

[-Blackadder-]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April I rate Shakhtar quite highly so no handicaps on Barca for me, and the odds for a straight win are unispiring so probably no bet on my part. I'll take United to qualify against Chelsea at 2 with bet365. I don't rate Ancelotti as a manager, and to me the purchase of Torres was stupid beyond belief for a number of reasons, mainly because Torres doesn't fit into their system. I expect Abramovich will force Carlo to play Torres in at least one of the matches. Ferguson meanwhile has Rooney back in form and Utd have the advantage of playing the second leg at home. GL

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April I know Barca is strong and they destroyed Shakhtar several times, but at this stage of the season @ 1.20 it's a joke. Shakhtar +2 @ 2.20-2.30 looks good, or maybe even +3 @ 1.44 but in a double with something else.

[DoobleDutch]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Barca to win to nil @1.83 (b365) Barca conceded very few goals at Camp Nou in European games, and at this stage they will be ever more cautious not to concede the away goal. Shakhtar is a good team, but they still got thrashed 5-1 at Emirates Stadium. I fancy a 2-0 or 3-0 result, perhaps even 1-0 if they struggle, but a win to nil seems very likely to me. Moderate stakes.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

Barca to win to nil @1.83 (b365) Barca conceded very few goals at Camp Nou in European games, and at this stage they will be ever more cautious not to concede the away goal. Shakhtar is a good team, but they still got thrashed 5-1 at Emirates Stadium. I fancy a 2-0 or 3-0 result, perhaps even 1-0 if they struggle, but a win to nil seems very likely to me. Moderate stakes.

I think the odds are too short. Shakhtar scored 6 against Roma, 3 in each game. I know Barca is not Roma, but still Shakhtar can cause a surprise. At this odds it's better to look at some odds on Shakhtar IMO.

[DoobleDutch]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April There's probably not a lot of value, but I think it is ok nonetheless. Barca are not going to let Shakhtar catch them by surprise, and as you said Roma are miles off Barca. I don't see Shakhtar scoring more than 55% here (and I don't underestimate them as I backed them vs Roma).

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

There's probably not a lot of value' date=' but I think it is ok nonetheless. Barca are not going to let Shakhtar catch them by surprise, and as you said Roma are miles off Barca. I don't see Shakhtar scoring more than 55% here (and I don't underestimate them as I backed them vs Roma).[/quote'] Still it's a tricky one. I think it will be tight game with Barca snatching it. Unders @ 2.60 looks good.

[Mister P]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April I was under the impression Shaktar were an attacking side, with six Brazilians? Their away CL games this season have had scores of 3-0, 1-5, 3-0 and 3-2, so I'm interested to know why some see a tight match? Messi and Xavi had a rest yesterday, which'll help too, from a goals-perspective.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Over 2.5 is @ 1.40-1.50 while both to score @ 2.10. Looks like bookies see 3-0 is more likely than 2-1.

[ValueHunter]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

I don't rate Ancelotti as a manager, and to me the purchase of Torres was stupid beyond belief for a number of reasons, mainly because Torres doesn't fit into their system. GL

I must agree about Torres but putting Ancelotti's coaching abilities on doubt is not serious. I also don't like Carlletto but I must admit he is far more successful in matters of Champions League compared to Ferguson as Ancelotti won the CL title twice and participated in one more final. Adding the fact that for the time being in Chelsea he won 3 Premier League games out of 3 against United gives us a clue that the Italian knows how to defeat Sir Alex. This could be the last chance of the big Chelsea team to win the CL title. Lampard, Essien, Terry are not getting any younger and I can see their form dropping slowly but steadily season after season. Chelsea are out of the battle for the EPL title long ago and they will put all their effort into Champions League.

[sajtion]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

i don't think man utd or chelsea will give much away in this game. as its the semi finals both teams will want to ensure they don't make mistakes but i'm sure chelsea will feel more comfortable as they have beaten previously their rivals three times so on contrary ferguson will be wary of anything but keeping his team tight defensively. this match can go 1 to nil to either team but i feel it will probably end in goalless draw

[sajtion]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April i'm not sure with what sort of phycology shakhtar will play in barcelona because if they try to take on barcelona they could score but they would concede twice the amount of goals. i think they will play defensively and try to make something from the counter attack. this gives barcelona all the possession and they can exhaust their defense and run out 2-0 winners so that what i will be going for

[Spannar]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Anyone else think that apart from a half dozen matches at the start of the Premier league season Chelsea look predictable? Ballack & Deco were luxury players but i think they added important weight and depth in Midfield especially in the CL. I'm a Utd fan but i hate watching Utd play away games in the CL. Always the same tired, negative 4-5-1 with Rooney on the left . Chances are though Taggart does the same thing here yet again. It dosn't help Utd and i think the only way he beats Chelsea is 4-4-2 with Scholes and Fletcher in the middle with Valencia & Nani out wide , Rooney Berba up front. Can't bring myself to back Utd though knowing how negative Fergie lines up. In the league there are always goals (over 2.5) between these sides and nearly always 2-1 to Chelsea ,not sure about the Cl though, this could be a very catious boring game.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April I think the best thing to bet in Barcelona-Shakhtar game would be cards/booking points. If you check the games both teams played in previous round there were many cards shown. Referee is Craig Thomson, who shows cards quite often. Cards market is not available yet so will write a proper post with my selection in the next few days.

[Kiddo112]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Agree with Mustafa on the cards. I see WH have some prices up. 23/10 on over 3 cards for Shaktar. Could be worth a look. Also for the time of first booking, they go 9/2 for 0-15 min. Could definitely be worth an interest as Shaktar could come out over agressive, and ref may choose to "set the tone" by cracking down early. 16-30 min is only 7/4 and 31-45 is 21/10. You could actually dutch 0-15 and 16-30 for a combined price of 1.83. Mustafa, what site do you use for card stats??

[Kiddo112]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Just looked at soccerbase for the ref stats. In his 4 european games this season he has issued 20 Y 2 R. However this is tempered by the fact that one of the games was Ajax V R Madrid, where there were 6 Y 2 R, however this was the match where Real wanted to get men sent off (Alonso & Casias if I recall correctly). Hmmmm, given it is a first leg, I am put off the +3 cards for Shaktar as they would be less likely to "lose the plot". Think I will look at the 0-15 min for first booking, the price means only have to risk a couple of points. In Inter Shalke game it is 18/5 for 1-15 min.

[Канисмајорис]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Can someone give list injured players ? Thanks

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

Agree with Mustafa on the cards. I see WH have some prices up. 23/10 on over 3 cards for Shaktar. Could be worth a look. Also for the time of first booking, they go 9/2 for 0-15 min. Could definitely be worth an interest as Shaktar could come out over agressive, and ref may choose to "set the tone" by cracking down early. 16-30 min is only 7/4 and 31-45 is 21/10. You could actually dutch 0-15 and 16-30 for a combined price of 1.83. Mustafa, what site do you use for card stats??

Wouldn't place bets on card minutes. IMO it's not profitable in a long run. As for the card stats I use the below website which only has stats for major leagues. It also has some corners stats if you do bet on corners. http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/MiniConsole.html However, for Champions League games I had to check match reports from uefa.com

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Card stats from Shakhtar games in Champions League this season Shakhtar 1-2 Partizan (30 pts.) Braga 2-4 Shakhtar (60 pts.) Arsenal 0-2 Shakhtar (20 pts.) Shakhtar 3-1 Arsenal (40 pts.) Partizan 3-3 Shakhtar (60 pts.) Shakhtar 1-0 Braga (10 pts.) Roma 3-4 Shakhtar (70 pts.) Shakhtar 2-6(1 Red) Roma (105 pts.) The only consistency I can see from the above stats is that Shakhtar only once received 2 cards in their away games, while in the remaining 3 away fixtures they got 3 or more cards. Also most of their games had many booking points Think will take one of the following bets: Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.72, Shakhtar -1 Card @ 2.05, Shakhtar Over 2.5 Cards @ 1.90(all with Bet365), or Over 45 Booking points @ 2.37 William Hill

[Kiddo112]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Cheers Mustafa The card minutes is a market I rarely get involved in. However having watched the Arsenal game in the last round, it really stuck with me how much the Barca players were making of tackles, and looking to get the opposition booked. Obviously a few early yellows allows them more freedom to inflict their passing game as opposition have to be more careful. What would put me off here is Shaktar's style of play, and the fact that as it is a first leg, it may not have the intensity of the Arsenal game. Bet356 offer 5/6 on first booking before 32nd min. They have also priced up the total cards markets, and over 2.5 for Shaktar is 10/11.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

Cheers Mustafa The card minutes is a market I rarely get involved in. However having watched the Arsenal game in the last round, it really stuck with me how much the Barca players were making of tackles, and looking to get the opposition booked. Obviously a few early yellows allows them more freedom to inflict their passing game as opposition have to be more careful. What would put me off here is Shaktar's style of play, and the fact that as it is a first leg, it may not have the intensity of the Arsenal game. Bet356 offer 5/6 on first booking before 32nd min. They have also priced up the total cards markets, and over 2.5 for Shaktar is 10/11.

Will most likely go for total bookings/booking points because if Shakhtar will defend which is more likely Barcelona will attack more and Shakhtar might be able to get a counter attack. They have good strikers who can cause problems and Barcelona will want to keep a clean sheet and as I gave said earlier the referee appointed for this game will not hesitate to show cards.

[Kiddo112]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Fair points, GL with your bets :ok

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

Card stats from Shakhtar games in Champions League this season Shakhtar 1-2 Partizan (30 pts.) Braga 2-4 Shakhtar (60 pts.) Arsenal 0-2 Shakhtar (20 pts.) Shakhtar 3-1 Arsenal (40 pts.) Partizan 3-3 Shakhtar (60 pts.) Shakhtar 1-0 Braga (10 pts.) Roma 3-4 Shakhtar (70 pts.) Shakhtar 2-6(1 Red) Roma (105 pts.) The only consistency I can see from the above stats is that Shakhtar only once received 2 cards in their away games, while in the remaining 3 away fixtures they got 3 or more cards. Also most of their games had many booking points Think will take one of the following bets: Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.72, Shakhtar -1 Card @ 2.05, Shakhtar Over 2.5 Cards @ 1.90(all with Bet365), or Over 45 Booking points @ 2.37 William Hill

Will take Over 45 Booking points @ 2.37 William Hill

[RedDevil92]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

Barca to win to nil @1.83 (b365) Barca conceded very few goals at Camp Nou in European games, and at this stage they will be ever more cautious not to concede the away goal. Shakhtar is a good team, but they still got thrashed 5-1 at Emirates Stadium. I fancy a 2-0 or 3-0 result, perhaps even 1-0 if they struggle, but a win to nil seems very likely to me. Moderate stakes.

I wouldn't touch this bet with Puyol and Abidal being out for sure.Victor Valdes shouldn't be allowed to play in this super team,he is never such a good keeper.He played well against Villareal but Villareal were also really unlucky. Donetzk has a very young squad with highly rated brasilians.Willian and Douglas Costa are on the list of every european giant.They are quick and will have good chances to go through Barca's weakened defense.Value lies clearly on both to score wth prizes over 2,00. I will play it with small stakes and say thanks to bookies because of underestimating Donetzk and overestimating Barca's defense. PS:I don't say Barca won't win,I just say that it could be tough.Possible win is 2-1 or 3-1 in my eyes or even 3-2.

[RedDevil92]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April I would bet on cards for Schachtjor's defensive players if it's possible.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

I wouldn't touch this bet with Puyol and Abidal being out for sure.Victor Valdes shouldn't be allowed to play in this super team,he is never such a good keeper.He played well against Villareal but Villareal were also really unlucky. Donetzk has a very young squad with highly rated brasilians.Willian and Douglas Costa are on the list of every european giant.They are quick and will have good chances to go through Barca's weakened defense.Value lies clearly on both to score wth prizes over 2,00. I will play it with small stakes and say thanks to bookies because of underestimating Donetzk and overestimating Barca's defense. PS:I don't say Barca won't win,I just say that it could be tough.Possible win is 2-1 or 3-1 in my eyes or even 3-2.

Agree with you. I personally rate Shakhtar highly and IMO they would do well in major European leagues. Just check the recent games between these sides: Barca 1-0 SD (ET goal) Barca 2-3 SD (even against Barca B) SD 1-2 Barca SD 2-0 Barca Barca 3-0 SD With Puyol and Abidal missing can see Shakhtar scoring here. Both to Score @ 2.10 Bet365

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April

I would bet on cards for Schachtjor's defensive players if it's possible.

Check Paddy Power or maybe unibet.

[soundingstylish]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April Chelsea v Man United - Chelsea -2 Corners @ 11/10 - William Hill 7.5pts Tough game to call, and with the Champions League being so unpredictable, I am going to delve into the corner markets once again. Chelsea's dominance in home matches is superb, keeping the ball for long periods and generally winning several corners with the way they are set up. Obviously against poorer opposition but they dominate the corner count in games played at the Bridge; Chelsea 11-3 Copenhagen and Chelsea 12-1 MSK Zilina. Ferguson has said he is going to attack, like Redknapp, so expect a counter type tactic tomorrow night. Believe it or not, United don't force that many corners. You would think with the pace of Nani and Valencia on the flanks that they would but they've lost against two very good corner count specialists in the Champions League already; Marseille 5-2 Man United and Valencia 6-3 Man United. I do think this line is set a little too high considering Bet365 have this priced up at 20/21 and they are good judges of this market. Chelsea won 10 to 2 on corners in the Premier League at the Bridge.

[AGurv]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 6 April UEFA Competitions 2010-2011 21-20-3 -1.37 units (51.21%) Man United +0.5 (-125) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Probably the square and public play but I still just don't trust in Chelsea that much even though they are at home. I could def see a 1-1 draw type game.