!!! NEW Draw system Strategy !!!!

[jpffc]

:nanaMy new Draw system Strategy:nana Aston Villa v Blackburn, 15:00 DRAW 3.60 b365 4pts Everton v Sunderland, 15:00 DRAW 3.60 b365 4pts Newcastle v Bolton, 15:00 DRAW 3.25 b365 4pts Wigan v Man Utd, 15:00 DRAW 3.80 b365 4pts Wolverhampton v Blackpool, 15:00 DRAW 3.75 b365 4pts In the majority of leagues out of all the fixtures played on average 33% of games are draws. So roughly 1/3. With draws the odds are always roughly between 3.00-3.50. So if you only get one result out of the 3 in you will be making a slight profit depending on how much you spend. In the premier league draws always happen and there are at least a couple every saturday. My goal is try and pick 2 draws out of the 5 games. If 0 games are a draw I will lose 20pts :puke If 1 game is a draw I will lose only 4pts :( If 2 games are draws I will win about +8pts ;) If 3 games are draws I will win about +15pts :D If 4 games are draws I will win about + 36pts :rollin If 5 games are draws I will win about + 46pts :drums So ye 4 and 5 are optimistic but if i can bring home 2 or 3 every saturday i will be on a steady rise. I will chose leagues when only 3/4/5 teams are playing for that day. I couldn't do this for the championship because there are to many fixtures and i would have to bet on every fixture to try and achieve 1/3 stat. With 3/4 or 5 games i should hopefully get at least 1 and hopefully 2 in the 4 and 5 fixtures. Its very early days but I did a small test on the Germany - Bundesliga II last night where only 20% of the games are draws and the following happened.... FT Energie Cottbus 2 - 1 FSV Frankfurt FT Oberhausen 0 - 0 Duisburg FT Union Berlin 0 - 1 Munich 1860 So i made a small profit with one game being a draw. Two 90minute goals in the other 2 fixtures so could have been 2 or 3. But it proved that 1 in 3 games will be a draw. Again its very early to say. But i will start with small stakes and see how it goes. Hopefully i dont start off with a 0 and can pull home a 2 or a 3 with 1 being insurance. Wish me luck and it would be good to hear what you guys think?

[lawalahmed]

Re: !!! NEW Draw system Strategy !!!! 3 of ur pick is against Home Favourite, therefore i only wish ur Man.United selection good luck.....atleast they are "Draw specialist" ( 66% of their away matches this season end in draw) on the road this season.....

[Grex]

Re: !!! NEW Draw system Strategy !!!!

In the majority of leagues out of all the fixtures played on average 33% of games are draws. So roughly 1/3.

Can't agree with this particular statistic. For example, this season: English Premier 30.4% draws Italian Seria A 26.4% draws Spanish Primera 19.6% draws Bundesliga 20.3% draws So with draw odds in the range 3.0 to 3.5, the odds are stacked heavily in favour of the bookies... as usual :\ But I wish you good luck anyway :ok

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: !!! NEW Draw system Strategy !!!! I can assure anyone that blind backing of draws is going to lose in the long run. My research suggests they are borderline random and you have to try and find which ones are greater odds than they should be. My assessment of those is I would omit the Wigan and Newcastle games. The other three seem to represent good value (strongly fancy Wolves-Blackpool to draw). Good luck all the same - your thread after all!