Tennis - 21-27 February

[Atko]

Usual tasty fare from the world of tennis. ATP Main Tour - Dubai (500 series, outdoor hard) - Acapulco (500 series, clay) - Delray Beach (250 series, indoor hard) ATP Challenger Tour - Casablanca (outdoor clay) - Wolfsburg (indoor carpet) WTA Tour - Acapulco (international event, clay) - Doha (premier event, outdoor hard) Good luck :ok

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Just a quick one - a Delray Beach qualifier Alex Kuznetsov to beat Alejandro Falla @ 11/8 (BET 365) Strength (4/10) Couldn't resist this one. Kuznetsov is in decent form on hard court, losing to Harrison in a recent challenger final, and is generally playing very solid - certainly at a level high enough to beat a Falla who has been very poor for a while. Kuznetsov beat Van Der Merwe in the first round of qualies, and the South African has been in decent form himself. Falla beat Farah who loses to everyone on hard recently. So all in all great value on the American here. GL! :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February I can't really see any decent outrights again this week. The two players I like, Andy Roddick in Delray Beach and Roger Federer in Dubai, are 3.75 and 3.00 respectively, which seems a tad skinny to me for an outright. The class of field isn't that strong, especially for Federer, but I still think there's no value. I have, however, taken Grigor Dimitrov (2.20 with Betfred) to beat Richard Gasquet in Dubai. Dimitrov is an up-and-coming player with huge potential. He's got a lovely serve and a vast array of shots. Mentally, he's becoming stronger too, and has competed well in R1 matches on the tour against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Dmitry Tursunov. Finally, he's got a decent R1 draw. Gasquet's not played much since withdrawing from Zagreb and isn't a great hard court player. He also is mentally suspect and hasn't got a huge serve to pick on Dimitrov's backhand, which is what Tsonga and Tursunov have. Quite fancy the young Bulgarian to take it. He's used to the conditions after coming through qualifying and is now ready to beat higher ranked player. Price is a lot shorter elsewhere, so definite value here.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Federer should be a safe investment though.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Agreed with Atko on the Federer front. Nobody in his half who he shouldn't comfortably beat then either Berdych or more likely Djoko in the final. Still can't take any outright at that price though. I was considering Stepanek over in Delray Beach at around 14s. His potential opponents are all beatable and he has indeed beat most of them in the past. I also considered Peer as a bit of a longshot over in Doha but her draw is so tricky I'm staying away from that although there could be some opportunities to back her this week like I did last week. Back to the individual matches, taken an early one over in Doha and expect the price to drop fairly rapidly over the next 24 hours. Lucie Safarova vs Agnieszka Radwanska- Radwanska -4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Thought it would be a 5.5 handicap at a skinnier price so more than happy to take this one. Noticed Pinnacle have this handicap at -5 at around the same price which shows some decent value here. Safarova has been struggling through injury for the last week or so which she picked up playing doubles over in Dubai. This problem clearly affected her game as she was hammered by Zakopalova 6-2 6-2 so not sure how fit she really is going into this tournament. Radwanska is a better player than Zakopolova and has had some good wins this year. Made the quarter finals last week before falling narrowly to Kuznetsova but she easily beat Bartoli, a good quality player in the second round and has been competitive in matches against Clijsters and Azarenka this year on the hard surfaces. As I've mentioned, the thigh injury to Lucie might restrict her movement ont he court and I fully expect Agy to exploit this weakness and take this one in comfortable fashion.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Federer should be a safe investment though.

You'd think so. His passage to the final is fairly straightforward. Gulbis, if he gets that far, could be a danger as he raises his game against Federer. Ljubicic in the semis might be an issue. Just a bit too short for an outright, but certainly wouldn't put anyone off it.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Just a quick one - a Delray Beach qualifier Alex Kuznetsov to beat Alejandro Falla @ 11/8 (BET 365) Strength (4/10) Couldn't resist this one. Kuznetsov is in decent form on hard court, losing to Harrison in a recent challenger final, and is generally playing very solid - certainly at a level high enough to beat a Falla who has been very poor for a while. Kuznetsov beat Van Der Merwe in the first round of qualies, and the South African has been in decent form himself. Falla beat Farah who loses to everyone on hard recently. So all in all great value on the American here. GL! :hope

LOSS Great start to the week :tongue2

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Decided on some early bets. Hopefully a good week. Good luck guys :hope. (5/10) Roger Federer to win ATP Dubai @ 3.00 at Stan James I have decided to jump on it in the end. The price is not that high, but his opponents will be pretty average until the final and then, it can be an easy lay if I do not feel confident. I just do not think there is anyone who can beat him in his half. He says he is well-prepared and I will take his word for it. He needs to get some points and this is a great opportunity with nobody of notice in his half. In the end, it will be either easy money or a nightmare. Let's hope for the former. (3/10) G.Dimitrov to bt. R.Gasquet @ 2.20 at Betfred The odds with Betfred are really too good. Gasquet is way off nowadays and the health problems certainly did some harm. Dimitrov is serving really well at the moment and knows the conditions, while Gasquet will need some time to get into the rhythm again. Dimitrov is the favorite for me here. (3/10) R.Harrison to bt. F.Serra @ 1.72 at Stan James Serra has done nothing this year. Horrible performances all around. And his win over Malisse was just pure luck. He then lost to Russell quite easily. Interestingly, Harrison beat the same Russell just a few weeks ago. He is definitely the more talented player here and I expect him to do well on his own soil against a player that is simply awful at the moment. 1.60 would be fair I think. (2/10) Each-Way Na Li to win the WTA Qatar (1,2 1/2) @ 8.00 at Stan James Crazy odds I think. Her way to the semi-finals should have only one threat - Jelena Jankovic. I feel she is the favorite for that one. In the semi-final, it is either Azarenka or Zvonareva. She has a good record over Azarenka and Zvonareva is looking poor at the moment. At 8.00, I think this is worth a try. She had a poor match last week, but that does not make her a poor player.

[Bet_Fred]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February (4/10) Alisa Kleybanova to bt. Marion Bartoli @ 1.81 at Betfair Well, we all saw Kleybanova last week in Dubai, where she beat Zvonareva fairly simple, yes, Zvonareva was very bad, but still Kleybanova showed some great tennis and seemed very comfortable. Kleybanova has good form and is 7-3 for the year with semi-final in Sydney. Bartoli on the other hand has had a quite bad year so far, last week she lost easily in Dubai to Radwanska and she lost both in Australian open and Hobart to low rank players as heavy favourite. She seems to be heading for the same fate in Qatar unless she can pull something out of her hat which seems very unlikely. The odds is generous enough to cover the risk. (4/10) Roberta Vinci to bt. Nadia Petrova @ 2.50 at Betfair Yes, Vinci lost easily to Zvonareva in Dubai but that says very little for this match. In Dubai Vinci was tired after competing in Thailand and then travelling to Dubai so I think that match we can forget about. Vinci has had a good year so far, she reached the quarters in Hobart and the semis in Pattaya where she also beat Ivanovic. Petrova is just a mess, one week up and one week down, but this year seems to be mostly down. She won only three matches this year and all against low ranked players, the rest she lost, mostly without taking even a set. I believe Vinci has recovered her strength and should fairly easily take down Petrova in the same fashion as she did in their only previous encounter in Tokyo last year. (3/10) Klara Zakopalova to bt. Vera Dushevina @ 1.75 at Betfair The last qualifying round in Doha. Zakopalova has eased into this round and beat Baltacha 6-1, 6-2 in the last game while Dushevina had to struggle much harder against Barrois. Dushevina has not done much this year and seem to be loosing matches week after week without even getting close. Zakopalova on the other hand seem much more focused this year after already reaching the semis in Hobart. Last week she beat Safarova and then fell to Pennetta but that is not so bad since Pennetta is a really good player. I believe Zakoplova can ease into the main draw without too much problems since Dushevina seem quite out of form at the moment.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Dimitrov had an off-day really. Anyway, three early for tomorrow, will come back with more later. (3/10) S.Peer to bt. S.Kuznetsova @ 2.28 at Pinnacle I would say that Peer has at least a 50 percent chance here. She was playing well last week and was stopped, like Kuzentsova, by Wozniacki, which is no shame. They are pretty even on H2H terms, but I think that Peer is marginally better nowadays. Kuznetsova only has a day to get herself into the conditions and any possible health concerns will make her care less about this match. At this price, I have to take it. (2/10) E.Schwank to bt. J.I.Chela @ 3.06 at Pinnacle (2/10) V.Hanescu to bt. N.Almagro @ 3.97 at Pinnacle I think this is the right time to go against both of finalists. They have played a solid amount of tennis lately and neither of them should be too motivated here in my opinion. Almagro should be especially vulnerable after taking two straight titles, while Chela is playing a fellow countryman in Schwank, so that may be another point in favor of the underdog. According to some sites, the players were warned about possibly dangers in Acapulco, which has a pretty high crime rate and wealthy tennis players might certainly be a good target. Only one winner is needed for a solid profit and I think this is worth a try.

[crack]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Sport	Tennis
Event	Julia Goerges - Ximena Hermoso
Selection	Ximena Hermoso
Strength	3/10
Date	21/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 16.00
Reasoning	Maybe I'm a optimist but I think that Ximena Hermoso can win this match. Players play in Acapulco, Ximena Hermoso comes from Mexico so she is playing at home, friends are supporters and motivation must be high. She can beat better player because Julia Georges is without form. Julia Georges doesn't like play on claycourts. Her favourite surface is hardcourt. Julia Georges was playing very poor in last tournament - in Bogota. She won in first round against poor player - Olivia Sanchez but after three sets. In second round she played against a worse opponent Xin-Yun Xan but lost after three sets. She was making many unforced errors, she was serving bad. As I wrote Ximena Hermoso comes from Mexico and tournament is in Acapulco in Mexico. She is playing at home and she has chance won against better player. Ximena Hermoso should take advantage of the weakness of her rivals.

[tabb_legend]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Lucie Safarova vs Agnieszka Radwanska- Radwanska -4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Thought it would be a 5.5 handicap at a skinnier price so more than happy to take this one. Noticed Pinnacle have this handicap at -5 at around the same price which shows some decent value here. Safarova has been struggling through injury for the last week or so which she picked up playing doubles over in Dubai. This problem clearly affected her game as she was hammered by Zakopalova 6-2 6-2 so not sure how fit she really is going into this tournament. Radwanska is a better player than Zakopolova and has had some good wins this year. Made the quarter finals last week before falling narrowly to Kuznetsova but she easily beat Bartoli, a good quality player in the second round and has been competitive in matches against Clijsters and Azarenka this year on the hard surfaces. As I've mentioned, the thigh injury to Lucie might restrict her movement ont he court and I fully expect Agy to exploit this weakness and take this one in comfortable fashion.

What happened to Radwanska here? Was following the match on livescore, she was 5-1 up in the first set and cruising and went on to lose 7 of the next 8 games? Injury? I know tennis is an up and down sport but I couldn't believe what happened here

[Armour]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February i wanted to reduce the risk and decided to take -3.5 handicap of Radwanska. i watched the match. she was leading 5-1, and serving for the set. but Safarova was on fire, and she broke her. really good performance from Safarova, i was really impressed... from this time and on i won't play against Safarova. she has really good forehand, and she is good in rallies. at least today she was...

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Safarova hit a purple patch in the match, that's all. She is very dangerous when she's 'on'...winners from everywhere. But there's a reason she cant quite break into the top echelon of players in the WTA....too inconsistent. Her play is all or nothing.....great when it works but most of the time it leads to tons of errors and crap returns. She is still one of my favourite players on the tour though. Radwanska looked below par today.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February I am just watching that Vinci-Petrova match and I am wondering whether Vinci knows any other shot than screwed sliced backhand :cry

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

What happened to Radwanska here? Was following the match on livescore' date=' she was 5-1 up in the first set and cruising and went on to lose 7 of the next 8 games? Injury? I know tennis is an up and down sport but I couldn't believe what happened here[/quote'] Must admit I didn't watch the match but when I checked the score and it was 5-1, thought the bet was in the bag, but wasn't to be. Even more shocked that Radwanska slipped up as Safarova is meant to be struggling through injury. Apologies if you followed on that one.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Agreed with Atko on the Federer front. Nobody in his half who he shouldn't comfortably beat then either Berdych or more likely Djoko in the final. Still can't take any outright at that price though. I was considering Stepanek over in Delray Beach at around 14s. His potential opponents are all beatable and he has indeed beat most of them in the past. I also considered Peer as a bit of a longshot over in Doha but her draw is so tricky I'm staying away from that although there could be some opportunities to back her this week like I did last week. Back to the individual matches, taken an early one over in Doha and expect the price to drop fairly rapidly over the next 24 hours. Lucie Safarova vs Agnieszka Radwanska- Radwanska -4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Thought it would be a 5.5 handicap at a skinnier price so more than happy to take this one. Noticed Pinnacle have this handicap at -5 at around the same price which shows some decent value here. Safarova has been struggling through injury for the last week or so which she picked up playing doubles over in Dubai. This problem clearly affected her game as she was hammered by Zakopalova 6-2 6-2 so not sure how fit she really is going into this tournament. Radwanska is a better player than Zakopolova and has had some good wins this year. Made the quarter finals last week before falling narrowly to Kuznetsova but she easily beat Bartoli, a good quality player in the second round and has been competitive in matches against Clijsters and Azarenka this year on the hard surfaces. As I've mentioned, the thigh injury to Lucie might restrict her movement ont he court and I fully expect Agy to exploit this weakness and take this one in comfortable fashion.

LOSS Should have come in with Agy leading 5-1 in the first but she somehow managed to lose in straight sets :\

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Very poor start for all of us it seems. Harrison won the first set, but that was about it.

[tabb_legend]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February This is why tennis is so intriguing to bet on. I like you, at 5-1 was already counting my winnings and I think radwanska was even serving for the set at 5-1 and held to deuce 4 or 5 times. I then sat there watching Lucie win game after game after game! Unbeliavable! She even started fighting back at the end but gave herself too much to do. But then how many times do players win in 4 sets but lose one in the middle 6-2 or something but win the others comfortably! Great sport, just annoyed tonight lol

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February I will have four in total for tomorrow, with this being the final one. I have more in mind, but I doubt I will be able to get the right odds for them. F.Verdasco (-3) to bt. T.Bellucci @ 1.90 at Pinnacle I am sure the Spaniard is already looking forward to this after he was unable to do anything on Raonic's serve two times in a row. He looks quite good now after his struggles, while Bellucci is pretty much all over the place. The handicap is low, probably because of the fact that Verdasco has not played a match on clay yet. However, I expect him to take care of the Brazilian here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February I've got to be honest chaps, I ain't seeing a lot of bets in R1 of the ATP events. The bookies seem to have got a grasp on things at the moment and are pricing me, and I suspect a lot of us, out of the market. Just the one bet for me tomorrow, and it's Potito Starace x Dmitry Tursunov @ 2.15 with Betfred. Starace's up against Pablo Cuevas, who has defeated five times out of five, including a match in Brazil earlier this month. Usually these two go three sets and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again, but Starace seems to have the Uruguayan where he wants him. The Italian is just that little bit more secure and consistent, and has been playing better tennis this year. Should be able to see this through. As for Tursunov, he'll be looking to kick on and get further up the rankings after a semi spot in Rotterdam. Nice draw to get him going, too. Marcel Granollers has been very average this year and doesn't do his best work in these conditions. He's too sketchy on serve and too loose off the deck. Tursunov's pretty much a ball basher but I can see him having enough to break the Spaniard down. He's got a lot to play for at the moment as he looks to get his career back on track. He ought to see this one through as well.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Took Starace as a single earlier, didnt quite trust him on the handicap. Think Starace is the better player in general and also in better form. He's had a decent clay swing so far mainly losing to strong players like Nalbandian last week in a good fight. Cuevas hasnt really got going this year, dont think he's anywhere near his best these days. Starace has a clear advantage in h2h and beat him this year already....it was a 3 setter but Starace was in control for the most part, had chances to win easier. Fancy him to come out on top here. Starace to bt Cuevas @ 1.690 (Pinnacle:5pts) Few more on my list, not sure if I'll take them yet, will wait until tomorrow.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February So many matches, so few bets ... going to have to hit this one though. Janko Tipsarevic -2 games AH @ 2.04 with Pinnacle over Ivo Karlovic looks pretty decent to me here. Evident gap in quality for me between these two. Tipsarevic is starting to show his talent again. Played well enough against Roddick last week and dismantled Sweeting. Player with a huge range of shots but can go missing in certain matches, but he'll get a lot of leeway here, especially on serve, because Karlovic is a shadow of his former self. Battered by Russell last week and has lost to Brands recently. Really poor fare from him. His serve isn't as strong as it used to be and he's never been one to be adroit off the deck. Reckon Tipsarevic will break him down eventually, so -2AH seems coverable.

[Fizruhas]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Michael Llodra - Novak Djokovic Over 20 games 1.72@triobet! 7/10! 1:1 h2h, last met in Paris 2010 then Llodra won 7:6 6:2. Can't compare last year and this years Djokovic. The guy won the first grand slam of the year, and then had some rest, and now he returns vs Llodra. He's undoutably clear fav here, but 20 games isn't that high, especially when the R1 is a little bit tricky, so i can expect Llodra will battle at least one set really.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Llodra vs Djokovic : Llodra @Pinnacle 9.930 Odds are just too juicy here. Llodra is probably going to lose, but oddes near 10 are a must take with H2H 1-1 and Djokovic injured

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February

Llodra vs Djokovic : Llodra @Pinnacle 9.930 [..snip..]

Loss as expected, but still I would prefer more serious approach from Llodra. Too many casual hits, and he even made this match kinda exhibition event serving bottom up in hist last service game and exchanging shouted jokes with Djokovic. Seems that this guy is to trust only on I-Hard tournaments located in France.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Hi guys, 3 picks for today: ATP DELRAY: TIPSAREVIC TO DEFEAT KARLOVIC @1.6 pinnaclesports ATP ACAPULCO: BERLOCQ TO DEFEAT MUNOZ @1.35 betfair WTA ACAPULCO: DULKO TO DEFEAT TATISHVILI @1.38 betfair Karlovic is completely out-of-form and Tipsarevic has a great return of serve to eliminate so he will be able to make a break or two and he is by far a better player otherwise. Berlocq is a good lefty clay court player very solid and with a great forehand, good results lately. Munoz was thinking about retirement an year ago and he had no positive ATP level results lately. Tatishvili is a hard court player who hits the ball hard. On clay, she should make too much unforced errors against clay courter Dulko.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Soooo annoyed and frustrated. Always planned to take Peer at above evens but didn't get round to it. Always likely she was going to beat Kuzzy after her final defeat a couple of days back. Ahhhh. Glad Czech got on Peer though, bookies deserved to be punished with that price.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February Youzhny to bt Simon @Pinnacle 1.719 Replay of the last Simon's match in Marseille (I-Hard) where Youzhny did beat Simon 36 63 63. One round later Youzhny beat Tsonga 64 26 64 and two rounds later Youzhny was sent packing due to his inexplicable lapse against Cilic where he did serve for the match in the decider but eventually he lost the set 5-7. Youzhny is better on hard where he can use his superb defensive skills more efficiently than on I-hard. On the other hand, Simon prefers I-hard, therefore I would conclude that in Dubai Youzhny should have even more advantage over Simon than in Marseille. GL :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 21-27 February S. Zahlavova +4 AH games over Suarez-Navarro @ 1.833 (Pinnacle:3pts) Not sure about Suarez-Navarro covering big handicaps, she is a classy player on her day but havent been impressed with her in a long while. She had a good week last week before losing to Johannson in 3, getting bagelled in the last set. Positive for her is that Zahlavova is coming from hard court events where she lost to powerful Hradecka in Memphis. She can play on clay though and this shouldn't be the worst match-up for her....not much power hitting, should be a good number of breaks but I think the handicap looks a little big here. gl!