F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)

[Crouch Potato]

Nick Heidfeld 251 @ Sports Alive With Kubica injured and most likely gone for the entire season I think Renault will look to a more experienced driver, of which Heidfeld is the leading candidate. If you haven't caught the news, Renault had an innovative exhaust system which sees the exhaust exit out the sidepods and attempts to replicate the effects of the Double Diffuser. For those who don't know, it was this revolutionary invention that propelled the lowly Brawn team into Championship winning material in the space of a season. Back then Button was as high as 101 and there are some parallels to that season so far in testing. Before he got injured, Kubica topped the times in the first practice session of the year. Furthermore, Renault shut down their development of their 2010 car a long way before RBR, Ferrari and McLaren, which means this year's car has had a fair bit more time put into it. This too was the case back in 2008 when Ferrari and McLaren fought it out til the final race, slowly development for the following season and thus paving the way for Brawn to do what they did. I know this is technically a 250-1 bet, and I shouldn't really be tipping with the convictions I am, but providing he gets the seat (chances ~50%) and the car is really good (chances ~50%) then he could really give you a sight at tremendous odds. If he gets the driver, it wouldn't surprise me to see him trade as low as 15-20 during the opening stages of the Bahrain GP weekend

[Mirage]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) A nice price and definately only at 250/1 because of the uncertainty over Kubica's replacement but i personally can't see Renault seriously challenging for the Drivers Championship because of this new technology - based on the Valencia sessions alone. The usual suspects have shown up ok so far and will no doubt have plenty up their sleeve to come for race day 1. I think Alonso will take all the beating if each team has a car which isn't as far ahead as their rivals as some are spectulating this years Renault model could be. Will wait until closer to the time before i get involved i think.

[Mirage]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Had a closer look at this earlier than planned due to seeing this thread and having a bit of spare time this afternoon. My main outright for the season to come..... 2011 Drivers Championship Outright Not a big priced outsider here but one i still feel could shorten up a bit come race weekend 1. This will no doubt be another closely fought championship and that is reflected in the market with the top 3 ony seperated by a point and that margin is even smaller in other places. My selection is Fernando Alonso. Nobody can deny that the hunger of this man to win is admirable and the way he goes about things is what you want from a man who will be carrying your money for a good few months. He is without question the number 1 at Ferrari and when he has no distractions around him (unlike at McClaren) and a sound car to compete with he can win anywhere. He rarely makes as many mistakes as his rivals (Vettel and Hamilton), is there or thereabouts in qualifying each time and his experience from past seasons in vital. The Ferrari has done well in practice so far for both Massa and Alonso and despite the big hype surrounding Renault i cannot see any team having a set-up which is far ahead of those around them. If Alonso posts more quick times between now and the beginning of the season, which i expect him to do, the price could shorten still. Put the whole field in the same car for a season and i would have the Spaniard over every single one of them each time purely because you know what you are going to get from him on a consistent basis - high concetration, tenaciousness, a good team behind him and invaluable experience. For me, Hamilton and Vettel make too many errors to be confident on either, i am not convinced Webber will be as competitive as last season and Button is solid for the most part but does have the odd shocker when the pressure is on. The 5 drivers i have mentioned already will no doubt pick up pole positions and/or win races and despite me hoping the Brits come out on top, my head says take the Spaniard at odds which in my opinion provide slight value. 3/5pts Fernando Alonso to win 2011 Drivers Championship - 3/1 with Skybet

[Mirage]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) May come back with an outsider closer to the time depending whether the odds drift a bit or a special bet is offered.....

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)

A nice price and definately only at 250/1 because of the uncertainty over Kubica's replacement but i personally can't see Renault seriously challenging for the Drivers Championship because of this new technology - based on the Valencia sessions alone.

The Valencia sessions are encouraging but in and of themself are a minor reason for the bet. The big thing for me is that both Renault and Mercedes stopped developing last year's car quite early on and switched focus to this year's car, whereas the big 3 teams were all competing til the final race. In a sport with such a large technological emphasis this extra period of development is, IMO, a massive advantage (potentially). And Renault and Mercedes are run by people who have won titles before and have the resources great enough to actually make use of the extra development period. For the record, I also took both Mercedes driver's at the end of last year, purely for the reasons posted above. Though they have not lit up any testing sessions so far I believe they have been running a bit of a shell car, with full fuel loads used tyres, so there's still a chance we'll see something soon that will indicate that they've made the most of their development period advantage. Looking to the big 3 teams, then I agree that Alonso is definitely the man to pick. Not only is he the most all-round driver of the 6, but he is the only one who will be given clear preference. Though Vettel clearly is favoured at Red Bull, their philosophy hasn't been to swap drivers, and I don't believe this would be the case even if it were Webber who'd be the one who would have to yield. As for McLaren, their policy on letting both drivers race is pretty clear. P.S. Good to see Heidfeld now in pole position for that Renault seat. Now into 85 on Betfair, and I imagine it will come in a bit more in the next few days.

[Mirage]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Rosberg is the other that interests me too but not e/w at the price that is available. Hopefully some special bet markets will pop up for me to have a look at.

[hornet_18]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)

Nick Heidfeld 251 @ Sports Alive

Fantastic bet, into 33s now after the announcement :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Cheers mate. Still a long shot, but better to be cheering it on rather than fret over not getting on. Offically tipping these two now, but really I've outlined my reasons for it in previous posts. Nico Rosberg WDC @ 17 Sportingbet Michael Schumacher WDC @ 17 Sportingbet Though they've been disappointing in testing so far I think Mercedes still have some major upgrades up their sleeve. They've only run a shell car so far -- a car that has been intensively worked on since long before the Ferrari's and Red Bulls. This extra development can often be key and I think Mercedes have the resources to potentially take advantage. They could potentially develop a Front Exiting Exhaust like Renault and their engine and KERS have been among the best and most reliable. In short, I think circumstances suggest they could develop a very good car and Rosberg/Schumacher are certainly good enough with the right equipment beneath them.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Mercedes Constructors Championship @ 13 SportsAlive For the same reasons as I've tipped Rosberg and Schumacher I am tipping Mercedes. Red Bull look the most promising in testing so far and Ferrari's race pace also looks quite impressive. Mercedes will however bring a number of upgrades to today's test and the impressions of Rosberg on yesterday's upgrades seemed promising. Still an outsider but with all the development time they have had I can't help but feel Mercedes MIGHT have designed a really surprising, championship winning car.

[Cramer]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Sport Motorsport Event Australian Grand Prix Selection Fastest lap: Sebastian Vettel Strength 10/10 Date 27/03/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.50 Reasoning Only bet I'll be having, as I have no idea how this race will go in terms of overtaking and pit stops. One thing I do know is that Vettel is the fastest guy out there. He was in a class of him own in qualifying and should be quickest in the races. He also loves getting fastest laps, often last year doing it at the end of the race when the race result was agiven. With the pace he has, this looks a very good price, and given the potential unpredictability of the race, I'd argue he's more likely to set fastest lap than win the race (which is odds on).

[Ben H]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Would be very much of cramers view that tomorrow is difficult to call, a lot of new variables this year and will take a while to settle down. Still like a kid at Christmas that the season is about to start though! my main thoughts on tomorrow is that the new pirelli tyres and the movable wing and kers might possibly make it a bit easier to recover from a bad grid position,although how much we will have to see.with that Qin mind I will be going for two wily vetrans,Rubens barrichello and nick heidfeld to make the points at 2.75 and 2.6. Maybe they can manage the tyres better than some of the younger guys in front, and I think especially the Williams is a decent car it's just Rubens dumped it in the gravel in q2. Also I will be going for kobayahi to make the points at 1.8, which is too tempting,the sauber looks fast and kamuri was so impressive last season at tyre management,stint lengths and passing all of which could help tomorrow.lastly I will be laying vettel to lead the first lap at 1.41 to lead the first lap,there is a rumour going round that the red bull kers is only good for off the line,if this is the case if Hamilton can cling onto vettel through the first couple of corners then his kers and the movable wong at the end of the lap could allow him to seriously have a go at vettel before he gets away. All bets 2pts worth and with betfair, enjoy the race and f1 being back!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Sutil to win Free Practice 1 @ 81.00 Bet365 Not a great deal of reasoning I can give to this one - Malaysia is often rain affected in all sessions, which makes things a bit more variable. Sutil is a bit of a Free Practice rain master, having topped the Practice time sheets in wet conditions before. At these odds, he's well worth a back.

[Huja]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)

Sutil to win Free Practice 1 @ 81.00 Bet365 Not a great deal of reasoning I can give to this one - Malaysia is often rain affected in all sessions, which makes things a bit more variable. Sutil is a bit of a Free Practice rain master, having topped the Practice time sheets in wet conditions before. At these odds, he's well worth a back.

That's a very good point. It would be fun to see how the new tires work on wet track. I took Button 7,5@Unibet. Many people say that Button drives smoothly and saves the tires best. Also there are more straights in Malesia than Australia. Red Bull doesn't have KERS, so Mclaren should be closer to Red Bull this weekend.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Winning Car (Quali) - Any Other @ 34 Paddy Power In the market are Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, so this option includes everyone else including Renault. Again this is a bet based on that fact that it could rain in quali. Webber proved last year that a bold strategy can put you on pole during a rainy session. That he drove a Red Bull probably dilutes the effect somewhat, but he was well over 1s ahead of Vettel on that particular day, and with the likes of Renault and Sauber doing well right now I can see them possibly taking advantage of a chaotic quali session, should one eventuate.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Nick Heidfeld @ 100 Betfair With the possibility of rain during the race and the expected increase in the number of pit stops during the race I feel that there's a bit of value on Heidfeld. The Renault seems to be quite good on it's tyres and with the Red Bulls and McLarens fairly evenly matched I think they could possibility race each other and allow someone like Heidfeld to score a big upset. Perez Fastest Lap @ 101 Centrebet Kobayashi Fastest Lap @ 65 Betfair Sauber seems to be very good on its tyres as we saw last race when Perez only stopped once. Whilst this is unlikely to happen again, I do feel there is a possibility that Sauber almost pull off a race stopping 1-2 times less, only to require a change of tyres towards the end. If this does indeed happen, it could give their drivers the chance to set the fastest lap, as Massa did on new rubber last race.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Petrov Top 3 Finish @ 15 Betfair This will need a little luck but I think there's good value here. Petrov is faster than where he qualified in 10th and he has a few slower cars in front of him. In fact, it wouldn't be too far off the mark to say he's quicker than cars 4th-9th. The Renaults get good traction and started very well last race and if they can do the same these odds will drop sharply.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Perez Fastest Lap @ 130 Betfair Kobayashi Fastest Lap @ 120 Betfair Sauber is very kind on it's tyres and they can often go the distance with one less stop. However, I'm going to continue to punt on them not quite being able to do it, thus resulting in them needing to stop just before the end and finishing the race on low fuel and fresh tyres, a winning combination for setting the fastest lap.

[rolf]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Hello all, Been a while since I've been here. Maybe you remember that I tipped Brawn back in 2009 and made at least one happy punter here (Crouch) :) , wish I had the balls to put my money down myself! :wall Anyway, my tip for this weekend is that same team again, except now called Mercedes. For the following reasons:

• low temperatures expected, which means Mercedes should be up to speed (previously struggled with high temps)
• Nico Rosberg claims to have one second improvements in the simulator. Will this translate to the track?
• NOT an aero track except for Turn 8 which is traction limited, so Red Bull won't be amazing here
• Merc have a good DRS and this should benefit them on the huge straight, DRS zone is very long here

Merc will definitely grab a podium, if there is some way of betting on that it is damn near a sure thing. 7@Betfair for Rosberg, 14 for Schumi. I can't bet right now because it's illegal where I am but I normally would! FTW are great odds too. 22 For Merc is fantastic. Basically, the value on these bets is fantastic, the market hasn't yet caught up. You could probably lay out before the race if you wanted to. PS if you're a value better with high volume (I don't bet often) then go for the win, you could even go for the driver win, the odds are just ridiculous.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Where do you live mate? Indeed, was quite happy to have landed the Brawn boys. Profits well and truly gone by now though :lol I think I've seen this one a touch too late, but still going to have a go at Nico Rosberg :ok Personally don't think Schumacher has it in him to win a race anymore, but Nico has been travelling strongly and can certainly entertain him as a race winner.

[rolf]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Too bad about Nico, what a bizarre race performance at Turkey. Noone could have predicted that. Now for Spain. This could be unpredictable due to tyres. The hards are 2 seconds worse than the softs and only last a little longer. It's likely that people will dump them a.s.a.p. and do as much of the race on softs as possible. Which means that the softs are all the more important. With only 3 sets, nobody will want to put any laptime on them at all. Quali today could be very interesting. I wouldn't like to predict anything before quali. Some may even opt to start from the back to keep fresh rubber. Whoever claims pole may live to regret it. The only thing easy to predict is that Vettel is likely to win again, no matter what happens, such is the pace of that Red Bull and his confidence. But is he value? Best you can get on him is 8/11 at Hills and Betfred, representing 77%. Perhaps this is a decent value bet as I can't see anyone touching him still and the RBR car is now seemingly bulletproof...... Frankly, I wouldn't bet on this race on the normal runners. Quali will be crazy, as will the race. It may be worth a punt on a mid-runner to get a points finish. Personally, I won't be staking any points on this though.

[Ben H]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) This will defo be another exciting race today! The tyres definately make it more unpredictable. Kinda wouyld lend itself to some good live betting I think for someone sharp...although my usual style of watching with a glass of cider and oaahing and aahing at the HD and the onboard channel means I often miss things myself :) Loooking at it today, I'm most interested in the battle for points, just because there are so many contenders, showing the strength in depth of the grid, and also bumping up the odds, hopefully for some winners. With that in mind I've gone for 2pts each to make the top 10 on: N.Heidfeld, 2.42 Kamui Kobayshi 2.34 Sebastien Buemi 2.74 (All on Betfair) With this I am bearing in mind espeically that passing has been so much easier this season, and from what I hear again the DRS zone is (too) generous at this race meaning cars can rise up the order quickly. With Heidfled and Kobayshi, the starting positions may not be dieal (24th and 14th) but I am buying into quality drivers who have scored points already, Kobayshi 3 times (and in them the other time before DSQ) and Heiudfeld twice, and I beleive they can pass enough and play the tyres enough to make it up there (both will likely run creative strategies todya, Heidfeld starting from the back and Kobayshi in a car that reporedly manages its tyres very well. In addition I've gone for Buemi to make, this was someone I thought would lose his drive this year, but he has impresssed me greatly this year, making the points twice, and the Toro Rosso is competive here verging on the top 10 in the practices and qualifying. In addition I've gone for 3 more outside bets: 2pts (Liablity) Lay S.Vettel at 1.32 to make podium 1pt V.Petrov at 19 to make podium (All on Betfair) For these I have the following resaoning: Vettel starts second, resportedly has problems with his KERS, and one theme of his racing has been that he is far more comfortable leading from the front than fighting in the field (not that hes had to do it since Spa last year) if he gets a bad start or gets KERS/DRSed by Hamiton at Alonso at some stage, I think he could be vulnerable to wrecking his tyres fighting with the others, having an accident, or just getting on the wrong side of strategy. Could be quite a big payout for limited liablioty, so I 'll go for it. Petrov apprantly flicked the wrong button yesterday, and didn't catch his KERS, so could have been faster. As it is, hes 6th in a car which just flew round here in pre season. You do get some inconsistency with Petrov, but he made the podium in Australia so he can do it, and with those tyres, you never know.... Enjoy the race! :)

[winbet]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Luckily Perez came away from the crash in Monaco Qualifying with no injuries. Hamilton paid the price for not putting doiwn an early marker in Q3, he finds himself starting the race in 9th after losing his only Q3 lap time for cutting the chicane in a lap which he said Massa impeded him on and his tyres were too cold. It's going to be hard for Hamilton to make up too many places in the race, though a safety car or 2 could shake things up. Kobayashi has finished in the top 10 every race this season. he qualified 13th on the grid; and the sauber is kind on the tyres, so can hopefully make up a few places as other drivers struggle for grip, or take advantage of a safety car. He's a general 6/4 for a points finish. Barrichello will effectively begin 10th on the grid, can choose starting tyre strategy and can count on a wealth of experience on this street circuit. He said he got held up in traffic which stopped him reaching Q3. He's around 6/4 for a points finish on betfair. I'll also looked to get matched at betfair on Kobayashi, Barrichello, and also Maldonado for top 6 finishes around the 10's mark. Maldonado is new to F1 this season, but has a likening to monaco - "I feel good heading to Monaco and it is definitely my favourite track and a place where I’ve had great results over the last five years (including one win in World Series and two wins and two podium finishes in GP2),”

[Ben H]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Would echo all that am on kobayahi for the top 6 and the points and barrichello for the points as well. I've also gone for sebastien buemi at 4 to make the points as well,on betfair,he dosent have the best grid position,but he had good results on the street circuits last season and has raced well this year.I think two stops will be the optimum for this race, but I think personally it could be fruitful for a driver who saves his tyres well to try for a one stop, and just use track position to hold everyone up. Hence I'm going for button to win at 6.8 on betfair,on the front row and in the last two races has done a pit stop less than the opposition.if he did the same today it would be a bit hairy but I think he would win! Also on betfair I am laying Hamilton and petrov to finish at 1.2/1.3,I think they could maybe get frustrated today in traffic and try over opmistic moves,good drivers as they are. For that reason I am also going for heidfeld to beat petrov at 2.26 on 888sport. Enjoy the race!

[Ben H]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Ha well thought a one stop and track position would work but called it for the wrong driver! :\ What a race but, the tension before the Petrov crash was unbeleiavble, I was losing it, what great on track competition, and what we should be seeing after all those idioic refuelling years waiting for Schumachers in lap split time or whatever! And the great news is Petrov is not injured apparantly. For me apart from the wackiness with the win bet (still can't really work out what McClaren were doing?!) the Buemi, Kobayashi, Barrichello, Petrov and Heidfeld bets came off, and Hamilton tried his best not to finish but couldn't quite pull it off! :eek So reasonably happy with the day...looking forward to Canada already! And what a great reading of the race by Mr winbet, hope you got matched up with your target price okay! :hope

[winbet]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) It was Kobayashi who I got the most matched on to finish in the top 6, and at over 10's so it worked out well for me. McLaren sure made a mess of Button's strategy as he was the quickest driver out there.

[Cramer]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights)

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	Lay Vettel to win (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	>10bet @ 1.97
Reasoning	I want to go against Vettel in this race. He produced great speed in qualifying to get pole, but this is going to be a tough race. It's always tough in Canada, and with double DRS added to the mix it could be very exciting. The Ferraris are looking very racy, and have been excellent off the line lately. Rain in the air too, this could be a crazy race, and one in which Vettel is very vunerable.

[Cramer]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) It looks like it is raining today, so I'm taking some chances with some more

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	Heidfeld to finish top 6
Strength	10/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 5.00
Reasoning	Reanult looking solid here, and Heidfeld starting 9th has a good chance. He has 2 Mercedes ahead of him who have been poor in races lately so chances to move up. He said after qualifying he had a wet set up, and it's looking like some rain today so has a chance.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	di Resta to finish top 6
Strength	5/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 5.50
Reasoning	di Resta is a driver that's been impressing this season, and he can have a good race here. He's starting 11th, so if it starts dry he's in a strong position. The Force India I think is pretty solid in the wet too, and either way he's in a reasonable position

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	Buemi to finish in the points
Strength	10/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 4.00
Reasoning	Buemi isn't bad in the wet, and starting 15th not too far back. A lot of things tend to happen in Canada, and he has a good chance of making progress up the field. This price seems too high, and is worth a go.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	Button to finish in the top 3
Strength	10/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Betfred @ 3.25
Reasoning	Button starts down in 7th, but he's got a wet set up and I think is set up well for the race. He's excellent in changeable conditions, and should be able to make a charge through. Most places go around 2.75 for this, which I think is closer to the correct price.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Canadian Grand Prix
Selection	Hamilton to win E/W (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	12/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 7.00
Reasoning	Hamilton I think will be very strong in the race. They've gone for a wet set up, and he is very comfortable in the wet. He's starting 4th and should be causing problems for the guys in front of him. I think this is a reasonable price, getting some profit if he places.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) haha thats amazing. i did vettel to be leading after the first corner then the odds went down and down so i got confused!.. but now the safety car is just driving them round!! has that happenend before? cos im guessing if its raining then the person in pole position will always be leading after the first lap??? i dont watch f1 that much. cheers

[Cramer]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) Yes that's happened before - Betfair market was a bit slow to react after news of starting behind the safety car. Oh, and Hamilton can go **** himself:loon

[icecreamdreams]

Re: F1 2011 Season Thread (Inc. Outrights) people got lucky with that then. haha hamilton is the new schumacher. reckless and dangerous. i remember schuey smashing into hill bloody years ago and im thinking that might have been canada...