Snooker: Welsh Open

[RussP]

Off we go again:nana Tomorrow sees the start of 4 days of qualifiers, with the main event beginning next Monday for 7 days. So, 11 days of betting opportunity with a 2 day break over this weekend. Yet another new format for this with the qualifiers, last 32 & last 16 a best of 7 match with no interval, quarters being best of 9, first to 6 in the semi and a 17 frame shootout in the final. Shorter format seeing more shocks? Maybe but it didn't really happen that way in the best of 5 World Open so let's see what happens.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open In a round full of unfamilar names to many, I'm taking 3 bets tomorrow. T.Thirapongpaiboon to beat D.Morris, 3pts @ 4/5 Paddy Power Best name on the circuit, is that reason enough? Almost, but I'll try to give a little more. First season on the tour and he's climbing the ranking pretty fast, and has some really decent form to his name. Made it through 3 Shanghai qualifying rounds before falling to Mark Davis, 2 World Open qualifiers before Judd Trump halted his progress, fell at the first hurdle in the longer format UK before making the venue at the recent German Masters, losing to Graeme Dott after beating the higher ranked Pat Wallace, Alfie Burden and Barry Hawkins along the way, losing only 3 frames. Momentum is certainly with the Thai Torpedo, whilst the complete opposite can be said of his opponent David Morris. His form this season has been pretty shocking, dropping from an opening ranking of 59 to his current 72. Lost in the opening qualifying round of both the UK & German Masters, and the pressure will be on him here whilst the young lad from Thailand will play his usual attacking game and put the Irish lad under the cosh early doors. A.Wicheard to beat M.White, 3pts @ 6/4 Paddy Power Adam Wicheard was slow to settle on the circuit this year but now he has, he's going pretty well for his lowly ranking. After losing 12 of his first 16 games, he was easy to back against but starting with the EPTC5, his form has turned round, winning 5 of his last 9 games. Amongst them were wins over Judd Trump 4-2 in a EPTC event and 5-2 over Fergal O'Brien in the German qualifiers, whilst his defeats have been 2 last frame deciders against Michie and, all you eat buffet buster, Stephen Lee, and 2 less convincing efforts against the much higher ranked Whirlwind & the Sheriff. He takes on a 19yo Welshman who may feel the pressure trying to qualify for his native event, and who has it to prove. Lost to Xiao Guodong in the opening qualifier here last year, 5-2. Is very hit & miss, I think he feels the pressure of being touted as the successor to Mark Williams as the pride of Welsh snooker. Definitely depends on whether he brings his A game but 1/2 is no price for such inconsistency so I'll gladly take him on at the price. S.Bedford to beat J.Wattana, 3pts @ 11/8 Sportingbet The Thaiphoon that is James Wattana is probably the best known name in the round but by no means is he a shoo-in. Looking back over his form for the last 12 months, what interests me is his liking for a longer match, despite his quick style of play, suggesting that he may struggle in this best of 7 shootout. In his matches over that period in a best of 17 format, he's won 6, losing just 2 in the World & UK qualifiers (those against Gould & Campbell). In a best of 7 or shorter format, encompassing the World Open and PTC events, he's played 13, winning just 5 against Hamilton, Swail & Gilbert as well as 2 unknowns. His 8 defeats feature 3 names of a similar or worse standard to his opponent in Xiao Guodong, Michie & Michael White. His opponent, Simon Bedford, has some decent form to his form and has won his opening 2 rounds of qualifying in the last 3 ranking events, with his defeats coming against Matthew Stevens, Joe Swail & Marcus Campbell. A repeat of those efforts give him a massive chance here and, whilst Wattana is still to be feared, I strongly feel the value lies with Englishman here.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open -1.87pts today after Thanawat really let me down after being 2 up before losing 4-2, whilst Wicheard lost 4-2 but was never at the races. Bedford brought an air of respectability to the day with a good win over Wattana. Going to take another 3 tomorrow. B.Haneveer to beat D.Morris, 3pts @ 8/11 Sportingbet I like Bjorn. Seemed a really decent bloke and had a bit of banter with him at the Shootout, so will be cheering him on. Hasn't been at his best recently but did reach a PTC quarter final and has beaten some decent players over this shorter format, including Ryan Day, Stephen Hendry, Anthony Hamilton and All You Can Eat;). Looked to be cueing quite well at the Shootout even though he lost to Stuart Pettman. His opponent here, David Morris, isn't really one to be feared. In fact, his form has also been pretty shocking this year. Beat Thanawat today 4-2 but was gifted chance after chance. Top run of just 41, I doubt that will be enough here. Each frame he won was tight, his opponent scoring 19, 59, 34 and 65 points in the frames won by Morris. He certainly rode his luck today and if his good fortune runs out, then I see Haneveer running out a comfortable winner. I.McCulloch to beat B.Woollaston, 3pts @ 5/6 Sportingbet The Preston potter is not the force of old but should still be too good for Ben Woollaston here. 22 places between them in the rankings tells its own tale for me but form too will have a bearing. McCulloch is a very relaxed sort of player, still capable of plying his trade at a higher level. It just seems as though he struggles against the better tactical game of the top players. Reached 2 PTC quarter finals this year showing he retains plenty of his old form but, what's interesting is that most of his wins have come against lesser ranked players. He's struggled almost every time he's faced a player above him. That bodes well for this match with the relative differences in the rankings, McCulloch hopefully able to live up to the favourite tag. Woollaston's form is not as good as his opponent despite his 4-0 thrashing of Liu Song today. However, Song was off song today as Ben didn't have to extend himself to take this. Apart from a break off 74 to win the 2nd, his top run was just 35. I can't imagine McCulloch losing many frames if his opponent scores like that so I'll take the lad local to me here. Jamie Jones to beat M.White, 3pts @ 8/11 Paddy Power Battle of the Welsh here and I take the excellent Jamie Jones to come through here. Outside the top 100 at the start of the season, he's worked his way up to 52 on the back of some super performances including losing in the final of a PTC event to Ding, having beat Greene, Gould, Wallace & Walden along the way. It doesn't end there, he's also taken the notable scalps of Ebdon, Allen & Carter in the other PTC events. Has come through at least 1 round of all ranking qualifiers too, his 4 losses coming at the hands of higher ranked players Lee, Mark Davis, O'Brien and Shootout finalist Rob Milkins. His form is way better than Michael White who won today against Wicheard but wasn't totally convincing. Won 2 scrappy frames without scoring 30+ whilst his opponent only had 1 break over 31 in the 6 frame match. White did hit 5 40+ breaks which just indicates how inconsistent he can be. On all known form, Jones is a good bet here and provided he continues in the same vein, he looks to be nailed on here.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Bjorn gets us off to the worst possible start, getting hammered 4-1, but the day improves massively with both Jones & McCulloch coming through relatively comfortably. 2 from 3 takes me back to -0.19pts. 2 more qualifying rounds to come......

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Good stuff mate :clap. I'll take one in the early matches tomorrow. 3pts J.Lisowski to beat F.O'Brien 6/5 Stan James I like what I've seen of Lisowski. He's making a big impression in his debut season on the circuit. He made the final of one of the PTC tournaments and then made it comfortably through to the German Masters where he didn't disgrace himself against Ricky Walden. He beat Marcus Campbell on the way to the German Masters so he can stick with these gritty type of players. He also beat Mike Dunn so the youngster is in decent form. Fergal is always a tough nut to crack but he lost to Adam Wicheard in the first round of qualifying for the German Masters, form which hasn't exactly been franked this week. Lisowski is very much on the up and over 7 frames I think he can see off Fergal in the morning.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I knew you were going to take that one mate, good luck;). There's 3 I like tomorrow, all at big looking prices. X.Guodong to beat M.Holt, 3pts @ 13/8 Paddy Power The young Chinese lad turns 22 tomorrow and I hope he can get the best present possible by beating the Hitman and moving into the final qualifying round. He's been pretty impressive so far this week but has also showed his battling qualities. A true sign he can adapt his game, he looks one to follow. In his first qualifying match on Tuesday, he beat Kachaiwong 4-1, hitting 4 breaks of 40+ including a break of 90. Was even better today taking out Pat Wallace 4-3, showing both sides of his game. In 2 of the frames he won, he hit breaks of 124 and 49 to emphasise he's playing well amongst the balls but he also won 2 very scrappy frames where he battled well, winning them with top runs of just 25 in one and 16 in the other. His opponent, Michael Holt, is not one to put maximum faith in. Has had one excellent event, winning an EPTC event taking out big names such as Murphy, Higgins, Selby and Maguire along the way. That's top form. However, take that out of the equation and I reckon I'd stand a chance of beating him. Lost in his first qualifying match of each ranking event, as well as falling in round 1 of the shootout. Also lost in the first round of 9 of the PTC events, progressing in just 3 others (including his win). Excluding his amazing win in that EPTC event, his match record stands at 3 wins, 16 losses so with his opponent at a big odds against price, he just has to be backed. J.Robertson to beat J.Burnett, 3pts @ 11/8 Paddy Power A name to be feared in snooker, I'm going with Robertson here. No, not Neil, but Jimmy. This lad will be inside the top 32 in the next 6 months, I'm certain of that. This season, he's had some pretty decent results, especially in the PTC events where he's reached the quarters once, last 16 3 times and last 32 on a further 3 occasions. Played well too in the German Masters qualifiers too, the last ranking event, beating Igor Figueiredo & Jimmy White for the loss of a total of 3 frames, before being edged out by Judd Trump 5-3. In his opener here, he played some great stuff in the match of the round against Simon Bedford. He won 4-2 hitting 6 breaks of 30+ including a 110, a 70 and 2 more of 50+. A repeat of that should be enough against a player who, largely speaking, has been in no sort of form this year. Akin to Holt, he's had one exceptional event, making the final of the 1st ranking event of the year, the Shanghai. Since then, he's been poor, losing 9 of his 13 competitive matches. That sort of form makes a mockery of the respective prices so, again, I'll take the outsider. M.Selt to beat T.Drago, 3pts @ Evs Stan James Everything suggests this one will be close so I'll take the value in Selt. Virtually nothing to separate them in the rankings, I'll take the underdog on the basis he's in decent form and has the added bonus of having table time today. Beat O'Neill in a tight match, winning a final frame decider, but he played better than the scoreline suggests. 5 40+ breaks in winning just 4 frames shows he's cueing well and, with a fast break being essential in these best of 7 matches, there's no time to settle in. Has been to the last 16 of a couple of the PTC events and, more recently, has come through 2 rounds of the German Masters qualifying before losing a player in form, Stephen Lee, and also beat promising youngster Lisowski in the UK qualifiers. Drago's form, to me, has just gone on a downward spiral. Has won just 8 of his last 20 competitive matches but, more worringly, only 2 of those wins have come against players inside the top 100, 67 ranked Liam Highfield and 90 ranked Kuldesh Johal. Amongst his 12 losses have been Woollaston (78), McBain (81) and Couch (64), with the other 9 all players ranked above him. Selt must fancy his chances against a player seemingly not coping very well with the pressure so I'll take him at Evens to bring home the victory.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Lisowski done a job on Fergal this morning :nana. One for this evening. 3pts I.McCulloch to beat A.McManus 11/10 Stan James This should be a pretty close match. Both know their way around a 12ft by 6ft table. McCulloch, a former world semi finalist and on the fringes of the top 16 at his best takes on Angles who lived in the top 16 for the best part of 15 years. Both men's games have wilted but we've seen in recent weeks signs of improvement in both. I thought Alan McManus looked good at the shootout and was so unlucky not to see off Robertson in the last 32 having looked to have done the hard work. If Robertson was built like Stephen Lee, McManus would've won. McCulloch is always a devastating scorer when he's on it. There was a time, and this may still be the case, where if he didn't knock in a ton in an exhibition he'd give the organiser his money back. That's a sign of how much belief he has in his scoring power. Belief I have too and with good reason. He scored very well in his match last night. From 2-0 down so under real pressure he pulled out a couple of 40's, a 75 and a 125 so to do that under pressure should give him lots of confidence. Angles is angles. He'll need scraping off the table but I reckon McCulloch's extra scoring power and benefit of a match on the tables last night see him home here.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open McCulloch won 4-2. I'll go with one in the morning. Looking at another tomorrow night but I'll wait until everyone has priced up. 3pts D.Harold to beat L.Wenbo 11/8 Paddy Power I think Dave Harold is a very big price here. Liang Wenbo has only made one venue this season and that was the Shanghai Masters that he qualified for by virtue of his top 16 ranking at the time. Since then he's dropped out of the top 16 and not been seen. In fact he hasn't won a single ranking event match all season which for a guy of his ability must be very worrying. Dave Harold probably isn't someone you would want to be playing when you haven't won a game in yonks either because he gives you nothing to get stuck into. He takes what's there and shuts up shop if nothing is available. He did exactly that against Mike Dunn on Thursday. Harold's highest break was just 35 but his tight play earned him a win. Harold won a couple of matches in the German Masters qualifying before losing to Fu who made the semi finals in the end. Wenbo isn't playing anything like Fu at the present time so at 11/8 I think the Stoke potter is a good bet to progress to Newport next week.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Top stuff yesterday Kev:clap. Was really disappointed yesterday with 3 losers, but was quietly confident as I thought the stats really backed up the bets. Ah well, not to be outdone, I'm taking a few more today. J.Perry to beat T.Drago, 5pts @ 4/6 Stan James I still rate Gentleman Joe and am happy to pile on him today. After what's been a disappointing season for him, I said he seemed to be cueing well at the Shootout and he proved that with a great run at the German Masters, losing in the quarters to eventual winner Mark Williams. To get there, he beat Angles 5-3 in qualifying before 2 great wins against Cope 5-3 and Carter 5-1. If he's anywhere near that form, he'll take this. I noted yesterday that Drago's record against those ranked above him is awful, not beating a player ahead of him in almost 10 matches this term. Admittedly he won yesterday against Selt but it was a scrappy match, one in which Selt actually lost 2 frames after being over 30 ahead. Perry's a decent player amongst the balls but is equally comfortable in a tactical battle so I'll take him to win here. I.McCulloch to beat G.Greene, 3pts @ 6/5 Skybet The Preston Potter has already come through 2 qualifying rounds playing some excellent snooker along the way and I'll take him to go one further and reach the venue. Came from 2 down against Woollaston to win 4-2 with big breaks (as mentioned by Kev yesterday) and he then disposed of Angles McManus 4-2, again after being behind (2-1). Had to battle hard with only 1 50 break so has shown both sides of his game this week. Gerard Greene is one of the players I'm sure McCulloch will be happy taking on. Has done absolutely bugger all this season losing every qualifiers he's played, failing to reach a venue. In the hope he maintains that 100% record, I'll take the longer priced, heavier scoring Preston lad to win. P.Davison to beat S.Bingham, 3pts @ 9/4 Skybet The surprise package of the week and not without a chance here. Not played too bad this year and is best judged on his run to the quarter final in one of the EPTC events, where he beat Joe Perry along the way. Has come through 3 matches already this week, including a 4-0 demolition of Stuart Pettman and a 4-2 win over Peter Lines (after being 2-1 down). Bingham had been playing well this term, with a decent run in the UK including a win over the Rocket. However, a disappointing 5-1 defeat at the hands of Hamilton in the German Masters qualifiers won't have helped so I'll take a chance and go with the momentum and big price of Davison. A.Higginson to beat M.Holt, 5pts @ 4/6 Skybet I think I said all I have to about Michael Holt yesterday. Other than his PTC win, he's been pretty shocking and in fairness, wasn't an awful lot better yesterday in beating a very disappointing Xiao Guodong. Higginson will be a different kettle of fish today. A player I really rate, he's been playing well and has reached every venue so far this season. His performances include 3 last 16's and a last 32 in the ranking events (Neil Robertson having to beat him in 2 of those), and a couple of PTC semi finals. That form should be strong enough here and I'll take him to see off Holt with the minimum of fuss.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

McCulloch won 4-2. I'll go with one in the morning. Looking at another tomorrow night but I'll wait until everyone has priced up. 3pts D.Harold to beat L.Wenbo 11/8 Paddy Power I think Dave Harold is a very big price here. Liang Wenbo has only made one venue this season and that was the Shanghai Masters that he qualified for by virtue of his top 16 ranking at the time. Since then he's dropped out of the top 16 and not been seen. In fact he hasn't won a single ranking event match all season which for a guy of his ability must be very worrying. Dave Harold probably isn't someone you would want to be playing when you haven't won a game in yonks either because he gives you nothing to get stuck into. He takes what's there and shuts up shop if nothing is available. He did exactly that against Mike Dunn on Thursday. Harold's highest break was just 35 but his tight play earned him a win. Harold won a couple of matches in the German Masters qualifying before losing to Fu who made the semi finals in the end. Wenbo isn't playing anything like Fu at the present time so at 11/8 I think the Stoke potter is a good bet to progress to Newport next week.

Lucky Old Kevshat.... Harold scraps through 4-0!! :notworthy The more you bet the luckier you get....:rollin

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open That was a bit easier than I thought it would be. Liang plays 4 frames with a highest break of 15 :eek. I was going to take one more but the price I'm looking for tonight isn't there so I'll leave it be and finish the qualifying series +11.03pts. Hopefully I can replicate that next week in the main event which I'm really looking forward to.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Tremendous stuff Kev:clap. I've had a nightmare, if Holt wins I'll have given back all my German Masters profit:$.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Tremendous stuff Kev:clap. I've had a nightmare' date=' if Holt wins I'll have given back all my German Masters profit:$.[/quote'] Think I picked the wrong tournament to follow you in! Only joking... Cest la vie! Still got the main event to turn it round! You know your stuff so it'll come good:ok

[League1_punter]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Has Higginson Holt finished or is it still in play? Score/Result anyone? (If its in play anywhere were I can keep up to date with it?)

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Has Higginson Holt finished or is it still in play? Score/Result anyone? (If its in play anywhere were I can keep up to date with it?)

Holt won 4-1

[League1_punter]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open ok. thanks for the info

[The Snooker Oracle]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open All kicks off 11am tomorrow. Here are my thoughts on tomorrow's matches: 11:00 Junhui (1/3) v Campbell Prices look about right here. Campbell cruised through his qualifier but Ding rarely slips up against the lesser players. Ding to win but no bet. 11:00 Walden (4/7) v Harold Harold has had a good run to qualify, culminating in a whitewash of an out-of-sorts Wenbo. Walden is a funny player, looks very good at times but misses silly shots because he plays so deceptively quickly. Still he is the class act. Walden to win but no bet. 13:00 Stevens (4/6) v Hamilton Hamilton looked on fire at one stage during the German Masters and has qualified again here. Difficult to know what kind of form Stevens is in but I could see him scrapping this one out. Stevens to win but no bet. 13:00 Carter (4/7) v Hawkins Hawkins played awesome on Friday to qualify, knocking in some huge breaks. Carter holds no fear for him either being well known to each other. Carter's form is patchy and it is difficult to tell how he will play. At the prices I will take Hawkins to win at around 13/8. 14:00 Higgins (4/11) v Lisowski If Higgins hadn't been through the week he has just been through then I would be lumping on him to take this; he is ruthless against up and coming players with little TV experience. But with the big Lisowski looking in good touch I'll leave it. Higgins to win but no bet. 14:00 King (4/6) v Holt Two unpredictable players and this best of 7 could last a while. King is under pressure to get in the top sixteen ahead of the ranking revision and still looks to be playing quite well. Holt is capable of good form, particularly against the players not in the top bracket. But I will take a chance on King at 4/6 to win this one. 19:00 Day (8/13) v White Jimmy played very nicely in the qualifiers with a couple of tons. Day is under real pressure through ranking and loss of form. He could be inspired by the home crowd and Jimmy may no longer have the game to win at the TV stage. Day to win but no bet. 19:00 Cope (4/7) v McLeod I don't know about the shotgun, if it was me I would call him Jamie 'Sh1tforbrains' Cope. He can play some truly woeful shots at times and for that reason I can never back him. McLeod came through a tough final qualifier and sooner rather than later he is going to win a TV game. I'll take McLeod at around 13/8 to win this one.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 4 outrights in total for me. 2 outrights and 2 quarter winners. 1pt ew M.Allen to win Welsh Open 20/1 Stan James (1/2 1,2) Mark Allen is yet to win a major tournament but it's not for the want of trying and this could be his week. He made the semi finals in the Masters where he played some lovely snooker before walking into a real purple patch from Fu wihch would have beaten anyone. He was disappointing in Berlin but everyone has a poor week from time to time. One thing the Ulsterman has on his side is he can score heavily and put these best of 7's to bed quickly. His draw isn't the worst either with only Ding a real threat in his quarter with Carter seemingly out of form. Although he would play Ding in the second round, at least it's over 7 frames not 9 so if he can get a good start the battle will be half won. Allen has beaten all the players in individual matches in the past so it's only a matter of time before it all comes together in the same week. Paul Hunter and Ali Carter were big names to win this tournament as their first major and I'll take Allen to do just that this week. 0.5pts ew J.Burnett to win Welsh Open 175/1 Sportingbet (1/2 1,2) I'm no Jamie Burnett fan, especially when blacks are over the pocket ;) but I can't ignore this price on someone who was in a major final not 6 months ago. Burnett made it to the final in Shanghai at the beginning of the season and on the way to that final he beat Jamie Cope and Andrew Higginson who lost 5-0 to the Scot. His draw this week is tough with Dott, Selby and Robertson in his quarter of the draw but he comes in here in good nick. He came through his two qualifying matches without losing a frame, the second match of which was against the heavy scoring Tom Ford which was very impressive to say the least. He had breaks of 100, 96, 71 and a couple more 50's in those 8 frames to emphasise the state his game is in. As I said his draw this week is tough but at least Dott and Robertson will be best of 7's so aren't quite the task they could be in a best of 9 or further. If he can come through those he should have the confidence to carry on progressing. The last 7 runnings of this event has seen surprise finalists in the form of Steve Davis, Andrew Higginson and Joe Swail. Burnett has made a final recently so can't be described as a surprise finalist here but his profile is similar to the 3 I mentioned so at a stupid 175/1 I'll pay to see how far Burnett goes. 1.5pts S.Maguire to win 3rd Quarter 4/1 Skybet I'm absolutely certain there's a big tournament in Stephen Maguire soon and with the best of 7 nature this week it could be in Newport that it all comes together for him. Aside from Mark Williams there isn't really a huge danger in this quarter. What I like about this quarter is the first and third favourites - Williams and Fu, clash in the opening round which will automatically open it up a bit for the Glaswegian. Maguire is expected to get past Gerard Greene in the opener and Hendry or Perry shouldn't cause him to miss sleep in round 2. By then we'll be on Maguire at 4/1 against Williams, Fu, Cope or McLeod. He won't be 4/1 against any of those so assuming he gets the job done on the way to the QF's the way he should, the Scot offers some value at 4/1. 1pt S.Murphy to win 1st Quarter 6/1 Skybet It isn't so long ago Shaun Murphy was only slightly bigger than this to win tournaments and now he's 6/1 to make the semi final which is ridiculous for someone of his high talent. Ok sure his results recently haven't been brilliant but the class remains and it's only a matter of time before Murphy is back at the business end of tournaments again. Maybe it will be this week. This is probably the hardest quarter he's been involved in. John Higgins and Ronnie O'Sullivan are in this portion of the draw but what state they will both be in is open to debate. Higgins lost his father 10 days ago so I can't believe he'll arrive in Newport at 100% and O'Sullivan pulled out of Germany and the talk is he wants a more prolongued break in his career. Sadly for the Rocket, even if he shows up to an event he is beatable now as Allen showed at Wembley. Murphy is definitely capable of beating him if he plays well. I don't believe Murphy is ever a 6/1 shot to make a semi final so with that in mind I'll back him to make the semi from the top quarter.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open A very poor qualifying event for me, -16.85pts, so a lot to prove for the main event. Here's hoping & I'm taking a few on the outright market at outrageous prices. A.Carter to win 2nd quarter, 2pts @ 9/2 Betfred A.Carter to win Welsh Open, 1pt EW @ 25/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1-2) Won the Shanghai earlier in the season but hasn't quite been the same player since, not getting past the last 16 of any event. However, he's back home now and will fancy his chances at an event where he's reached the final on each of the last 2 years, winning once. Clearly loves the venue and will be fired up to do well in front of his home crowd. The draw has been relatively kind to him, I feel. Tough opener but his 3-1 H2H over the inconsistent Barry Hawkins should stand him in good stead. Ebbo or Dale shouldn't hold too many fears after that before a quarter final against Ding or Mark Allen being most likely. However if he can get past the first 2 rounds, the home support will be a massive plus and I think 25/1 is way too big for a player still inside the top 8 with a ranking win against his name this season and a superb record in this event. Even if he doesn't go all the way, 9/2 is a silly price in a quarter with only 1 player ranked above him. S.Maguire to win 3rd quarter, 2pts @ 4/1 Betfred S.Maguire to win Welsh Open, 1pt EW @ 20/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1-2) I'm hoping the Scot will be on fire this week. Another who is in the top 8, making his price look stupid and also has a good record here, reaching the quarters & semis in the last 2 years. Still a great player on his day, I think this short format will suit him well, as proved by his 2 final appearances in the PTC's. Reached the quarters in 3 of the 4 ranking events so 4's again looks big to win his quarter. Draw, again, hasn't been too unkind, with Gerard Greene to open and either Hendry or Perry in his path en route to the quarters. Most likely Mark Williams or Fu then but I'd be happy to be on him at the price then. And now a few on the high break market... D.Harold to hit highest break, 0.5pts EW @ 150/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) I'm going with a similar theme on all my high break bets in that I want a player who can progress further than round 1, is in decent nick and is a qualifier. Why qualifier? Simple for me, almost every event this season has seen the top 4 places in the break market occupied by a qualifier....winners being Bingham in the Shanghai, Swail in the World Open and Joyce in the UK. Harold has Walden in round 1, a game I think he can win which will be a bonus and his form in qualifiers was really good, particularly a 4-0 thrashing of Liang. As the rank outsider of the field, I'll take him at a massive 150/1 to score a big ton and be in the running come the end of the week. J.Perry to hit highest break, 1pt EW @ 50/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) Gentleman Joe has done me some favours lately and here's hoping he can make it 3 times lucky for me. Similar comments as made in the Harold write up, he's already hit 130+ breaks in 4 of the PTC events making 50's look a massive price. His opening mathc here is a very winnable one against Hendry and his form coming into this is very good. Reached the quarters at the German Masters, taking Carter & Cope before losing to eventual winner Williams, and scored a nice 4-2 over Drago in the qualifiers last week including a break of 102. I really hope he can settle here and, if he does, I like his chances. J.Burnett to hit highest break, 0.5pts EW @ 100/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) Last bet for me and a really big price. Reached the Shanghai final, losing to Ali Carter, but not done much since. However, his run there included a 131 which saw him amongst the places and I wouldn't rule out another good showing here. Graeme Dott to start with, this will be a very open game and I expect plenty of chances to be available. I also cannot question his form of the qualifiers beating 2 very dangerous opponents with the minimum of fuss, both 4-0, against Jimmy Robertson and Tom Ford. In those 8 frames, he hit breaks of 100, 96, 71, 55 and 50, so where the quote of 100/1 comes from, I have no idea. With the high break market generally favouring qualifiers, I hope that continues this week and we get a good run for our money.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Monday 14 February 2011	Player 1	Player 2	BPP
	Ding, Junhui v Campbell, M (11:00 GMT)	1.33	3.92	100.51 %
	Walden, R v Harold, D (11:00 GMT)	1.62	2.52	101.41 %
	Carter, A v Hawkins, B (13:00 GMT)	1.63	2.5	101.24 %
	Higgins, J v Lisowski, J (14:00 GMT)	1.4	3.6	99.21 %
	King, M v Holt, M (15:00 GMT)	1.72	2.26	102.05 %
	Cope, J v McLeod, R (19:00 GMT)	1.67	2.5	99.88 %
	Tuesday 15 February 2011	Player 1	Player 2	BPP
	Allen, M v Lawler, R (13:00 GMT)	1.44	3.3	99.53 %
	Williams, M v Fu, M (13:00 GMT)	1.56	2.62	102.12 %
	Selby, M v Bingham, S (14:00 GMT)	1.51	2.86	100.95 %
	Ebdon, P v Dale, D (15:00 GMT)	1.8	2.2	101.01 %
	Dott, G v Burnett, J (19:00 GMT)	1.55	2.65	102.02 %
	Robertson, N v Bond, N (19:00 GMT)	1.36	3.69	100.43 %
	Wednesday 16 February 2011	Player 1	Player 2	BPP
	Hendry, S v Perry, J (13:00 GMT)	1.85	2.15	100.57 %
	Maguire, S v Greene, G (14:00 GMT)	1.47	3.1	100.21 %

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open 3 for tomorrow. 4pts A.Hamilton to beat M.Stevens 6/5 William Hill I like Anthony Hamilton in this match. This is the second venue he's qualified for in the last couple of weeks amid signs that his game is in decent nick. When he played in Berlin he beat Neil Robertson and ok Robbo was pissing about with his passport and only arrived last minute but you don't get jet lag going to Germany and even if he was in a rush, Hamilton put in 3 tons in that event which is fantastic scoring. I'm not overly sure what Stevens has got going for him here really other than the home crowd. He was awful against Ding in Berlin looking like he couldn't put a 30 together for most of his match. When Hamilton's scoring he's dangerous and with a 124 shoved in during his qualifying match the Sheriff of Pottingham is clearly scoring. At odds against I've got to take Hamilton to beat a very out of sorts looking Matthew Stevens. 3pts B.Hawkins to beat A.Carter 6/4 VC Barry Hawkins is a very tough match player and I think he's got a good chance in this match. When given the opportunity he can score well as Andy Hicks can testify having sat out a 143 in their qualifying match on Friday morning. He can play good safety too and he's a tricky opponent for Carter who looks a little out of sorts recently. The Captain was nothing short of abysmal against Ebdon at Wembley and while he beat Stephen Lee in Germany, he needed a deciding frame to do it in and got wiped out by Perry in the second round. Lee led Carter 4-3 in their match in Berlin and were Hawkins to do that here he would obviously have won. I think Hawkins has a much better chance than these odds suggest so even though Ali has been to the final here for the last two years I'll take him to be back in Essex by Monday tea time with defeat in this match. 3pts J.White to beat R.Day 6/4 Bet365 Naturally when odds come out nostalgia leads me too look at Jimmy's odds and that was the case here. However I think this 6/4 has some mileage. Jimmy White has played really well in the qualifiers all season but when he got to the TV stages of tournaments he froze a bit. Now that's a bit silly sounding for someone who has spent 30 years on TV but there was a definite barrier there. However his performance against Hendry in the UK Championship could well have broken that barrier down and I would expect consistent performances from the Whirlwind again even though he'll never be the player he once was. He knocked in two tons in his qualifying match against Robert Milkins on Thursday, a sign that a combination of that performance and a few wins on the seniors tour have given him confidence in his game. Confidence is something I don't see in Ryan Day. He lost 5-3 to Murphy in Berlin which in itself isn't a bad result but he needs a good run somewhere to get his ranking back to where it was. That adds further pressure to being the home boy this week, pressure he's admitted he doesn't always cope with. If Day isn't on his game and Jimmy brings his to the table, both of which having been the case in recent tournaments, then White can send the Welshman home on the opening night.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Good luck Kev, think we are interested in most of the same players/matches, albeit for slightly different bets:ok. I'm also going with 3. R.Walden vs D.Harold, under 5.5 frames, 3pts @ 11/8 BlueSq What I noticed from the qualifiers was that there was a lot of 4-1 / 4-0 scorelines, in fact 10 of 14 final qualifying round matches finished that way. Looking through the games for tomorrow, this seems to be the most likely to go the same way and, for me, the match depends entirely on which Ricky Walden turns up. It's probably that he'll need a good run in this to qualify automatically for the Worlds so it's a question of how he reacts to that pressure. In the PTC events, around 2/3rds of his matches finished under 5.5 frames, and was 1 from 2 with his opponent here Dave Harold (4-0 & 2-4). You know what you are getting with Dave, a player who will grind you down if necessary so, for me, it's all about who gets the fast start. If Ricky comes out potting the balls well, it could all be over in double quick time but, if he fails to settle in frame 1, the nature of Harold's game may just prove too much. With stats suggesting this one is overpriced, I'll take the unders here. A.Hamilton to hit highest break vs M.Stevens, 3pts @ 11/10 SportingBet I also like the Sheriff here. He's been in some super form lately and the only reason I'm not taking him outright is that the venue and home support may just aid Stevens. However, I'm more than hopeful on the high break for the Englishman. Beat Neil Robertson at the German Masters so that's top form and he knocked in some decent breaks whilst there and, what's more, he brought that into the qualifiers last week. He beat David Morris 4-3 after being 2 down and, despite the pressure of needing to win 4 of the last 5, he knocked in breaks of 70, 76, 65 and 128. Stevens, meanwhile, needs a run to get back into the top 16 so I think it will be more about the result than the performance. At odds against, I'll take Hamilton here. J.White to hit highest break vs R.Day, 3pts @ 6/5 SportingBet Another match where I'll take the Welsh player to focus more on winning that securing a performance. Jimmy White, as Kev says, may just have turned a corner and will be highly motivated by setting up a clash against O'Sullivan for winning here. Whilst I think Day is coming back into some form, the Whirlwind is still a force to be reckoned with amongst the balls. Again, I'll look at the qualifiers last week. White beat McBain 4-0 with a high run of 66 but impressed even more when disposing of Rob Milkins 4-1 in his next match, including back to back centuries. That's top scoring so I'm delighted to be on, again at odds against.

[joe mavis]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open I too have had a small wager on the outright - gone for Maguire as stated above he does have a nice draw and at 26/1 on Betfair odds are way to big in my opinion. Have had small stakes with a view to trade off before the last 8 - hopefully a few of the big guns will have been beaten and his odds will have dropped. I think we could be in for a few shocks in this tournament as such a short format in the early rounds will suit the underdogs - but thats just my opinion good luck all who have had a bet in this one. S.Maguire to win the Welsh open at 26/1 on Betfair 1pt

[Bossie13]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open What a silence in here :zzz

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Wednesday 16 February 2011	Player 1	Player 2	BPP
	Hendry, S v Perry, J (13:00 GMT)	1.8	2.28	99.22 %
	Murphy, S v Stevens, M (13:00 GMT)	1.72	2.62	96.07 %
	Higgins, J v Harold, D (14:00 GMT)	1.36	3.75	100.00 %
	Maguire, S v Greene, G (14:00 GMT)	1.4	3.55	99.60 %
	O'Sullivan, R v Day, R (19:00 GMT)	1.57	3	96.97 %

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

What a silence in here :zzz

Bar an outright or 2 still in the tournament.... not much to shout about thus far! But knowing the skills of Kev and Russ... they are plotting revenge on the bookies as we speak!

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open Feel free to offer some thoughts of your own Bossie :ok. Bets are going to be few and far between for me this week as I have 3 outrights running for me at the minute which I'm happy to let ride and my main attention aside of work is going to be studying for the cricket world cup. I wasn't going to have anything this afternoon but now the handicaps have been priced up I will. Also one for tonight. 4pts S.Maguire (-1.5 frames) to beat G.Greene 4/5 Blue Square Gerard Greene is making a rare appearance at a TV tournament these days and I think he'll be sent on his way by Maguire here. Maguire was one of the better performers in the PTC events and we've seen in things like the Championship League that these shorter length matches don't worry him. His scoring power is the thing I like about him here. He should have too much for Greene. To be fair to Gerard, he's qualified for Dublin next month too but although he beat Ian McCulloch 4-0 in qualifying to make it here, his season hasn't been the best. This will require a big step up on recent performances but Maguire generally goes well here and I think he'll win this no worse than 4-2. 3pts R.Day to beat R.O'Sullivan 2/1 Skybet Since making the World Open final, O'Sullivan's record in majors reads first round loss to Bingham at the UK, first round loss to Allen at Wembley and he couldn't even be bothered to show up in Germany. Day showed up here the other night walloping White and if he produces that sort of standard here and Ronnie's woes continue then 2/1 is a superb price on the Welshman in front of his own crowd.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open What Did I say?

Bar an outright or 2 still in the tournament.... not much to shout about thus far! But knowing the skills of Kev and Russ... they are plotting revenge on the bookies as we speak!

Boom!! +9.2 for those little beauties I do believe? Well done Kev :notworthy

4pts S.Maguire (-1.5 frames) to beat G.Greene 4/5 Blue Square Gerard Greene is making a rare appearance at a TV tournament these days and I think he'll be sent on his way by Maguire here. Maguire was one of the better performers in the PTC events and we've seen in things like the Championship League that these shorter length matches don't worry him. His scoring power is the thing I like about him here. He should have too much for Greene. To be fair to Gerard, he's qualified for Dublin next month too but although he beat Ian McCulloch 4-0 in qualifying to make it here, his season hasn't been the best. This will require a big step up on recent performances but Maguire generally goes well here and I think he'll win this no worse than 4-2. 3pts R.Day to beat R.O'Sullivan 2/1 Skybet Since making the World Open final, O'Sullivan's record in majors reads first round loss to Bingham at the UK, first round loss to Allen at Wembley and he couldn't even be bothered to show up in Germany. Day showed up here the other night walloping White and if he produces that sort of standard here and Ronnie's woes continue then 2/1 is a superb price on the Welshman in front of his own crowd.

[Bossie13]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open

Feel free to offer some thoughts of your own Bossie :ok. Bets are going to be few and far between for me this week as I have 3 outrights running for me at the minute which I'm happy to let ride and my main attention aside of work is going to be studying for the cricket world cup. I wasn't going to have anything this afternoon but now the handicaps have been priced up I will. Also one for tonight.

Work is taking almost all of my time. :( I only have 1 hour in the morning to look what's up that day and 1.5 hour in the evening before going to work. In the evening there's always some stream or live telly with sports. My thoughts are rather worthless kev ;) , sure for the moment because I didn't see a ball rolling this week. I didn't dare to put something on Day and saw your pick too late so let that pass and this morning I took Murphy :lol:lol at 6/10

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: Welsh Open That was a day I needed. Starting to resemble Germany this :eek. -2.8pts going into Thursday after the two smaller outrights lost. One for the afternoon session. 6pts M.Williams (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Cope 5/6 Blue Square Mark Williams is playing dream snooker at the minute and I see no reason why that won't continue. He's scoring like a dream and Cope has no safety game. Cope struggled past McLeod and I think he goes here and goes no worse than 4-2.