ogii55 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Next big competition of the cycling season is Tour of Qatar, which started today. We will have another sprinters battle staring former winner Tom Boonen, Cavendish, Heinrich Haussler, Bennati, Chicchi.... Looking after initial time trail seems Tom Boonen is once again very hungry for wins after very bad last season for him. The Belgian will have the strongest team help with top sprinters Francesco Chicchi and Gert Steegmans. I expect from him at least two wins. He is also very strong contender for overall win after very strong Time Trail in the prologue. Pinnaclesports/Bet365/Unibet/Whil and Paddy will have odds here. I will play mostly h2h, but also will put some odds for Stage wins or Top 3. All my bets will be by 1 pt. Starting from Stage 1 Top 3 Henric Haussler 3.25 Unibet The German was twice at Top 3 in last two years on the same stage. Always finds good position. Will have strong support from Garmin team. Former points winner here. Top 3 Greg Van Avermat 15.00 Unibet The young Belgian is improving every year. Showed good sprinting results in Vuelta and Tour de France in recent years. Finished fifth at World championships. Overall winner Tom Boonen 3.00 Paddy Boonen needs wins this season or he will be finished. His quick step contract is very costly and after injury and drugs problems last year, he must show during 2011 his qualities. Cavendish already is out of GC contention after his bad fall in Prologue (which may affect also his stage by stage form). The other strong contender for GC Francesco Chicchi will ride for Boonen team this year. Haussler already lost 8 seconds to Boonen. Will wait until tomorrow for Pinnacle h2h, they put bet365 lines, but with some better odds. My overall numbers from Tour Down under are tragic :), but let them show up Overall with 1 pt. bets -11.5 p. H2H -4,66 p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Andrea Guardini vs Theo Bos 2.26 Guardini is in great shape. Won couple of sprint stages at Tour of Malasia. He is just 21 years old and is considered as the new Italian sprinting star. Bos is capable sprinter, but today the Rabobank team must defend Lars Boom yellow jersey. Also the team have one other very good sprinter - Gream Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Stage 2 This stage was won three times by Boonen in recent 4 years (the finish in Doha Golf course was put just three times, all won by Boonen). 2.75 seems small odds for me. Now all the teams will be cautioned by the good form of Belgian, who easily outsprint top speeders as Hausler, Mark Renshaw, Bennati and Brown. For the other sprinters the way that first stage passed with a break of some very strong riders will be a sign for sure. I think second stage will be much bigger bunch sprint where we may see some surprises. Greg Van Avermaet 1 pt E/W bet365 101 Greg was second on the same stage in 2002 when he was just 23 years old. Now he may try once again to enter among the Top 3. He has qualities and for sure will not miss some break. Andrea Guardini 1 pt. e/w 34.00 Sportingbet Italian gun also missed the break. As i wrote he is in top form, so just need to get ready for the sprint with the front group and may put some surprise. Pinny still didn't offer odds for h2h and i will leave very early tomorrow morning so i am not sure if i will have time to play. Round up Tour of Qatar Guardini beat Bos, i forgot to put the name of the bookie, so it's pinny :) Hausler finished second Current stats after Stage 1 H2H +1.26 p. Total +2.5 p. (with Boonen pending) Overall 2011 H2h -3,4 p. 5/16 Total -9 p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Guardini – Bos 1.926 Pinny As yesterday Guardini showed far better form in recent competitions. Now Bos must work for Brown, who has some GC ambitions. Guardini is free from such obligations. Van Hummel – Van Staeyen 2.58 Pinny Van Hummel showed far better results in Stage races last season then Van Staeyen. Also Van Hummel already scored some points for his rankings during Tour of Malaysia. Both teams do not have some GC contenders, so they will ride for their own. Van Hummel is in better team – Skil-Shimano. First stage both were with the biggest group and it doesn’t have real battle for placings. Marko Kump - Russel Downing 2.47 Pinny Once again a battle between rider, who will have a lot of duties for his team as Russel Downing and Marko Kump, who don’t have a GC contender at his team. Downing must take care of Flecha and Hunt, who are fighting in Top 10 at GC. Also he must work probably for the star of Sky Bradley Wiggins. Kump is up and coming star, who already showed his good sprinting skills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Stage 2 happends in the worst possible scenario. Leopard giys with Cancelara and O'Grady put a killing tempo that kills a lot of the strong sprinters and benefits those with good positioning as Hausler and Bennati. Boonen was alone in the end and must find with the wind. All H2H lost as well as EW bets Tour of Qatar stats Stage Total -7 pts. H2H -3 pts. Tour of Qatar H2H -1.84 Pts. Overal -4,5 pts. Overal 2011 H2h: -6,4 pts. Overall: - 16 pts. Tour of Qatar Stage 3 The stage will finish in Mesaied. Last year Boonen took the win and in 2007 it was Greg van Avermaet who make it. I will double my E/W bet from Stage 2. Greg Van Avermaet 1 pt E/W >Bet365 101 Greg probably may try a breakway. With so close margin between the leaders maybe they will wait some time. Avermaet may enter in a breakway or even to sprint for a Top 3. Andrea Guardini 1 pt. place 6,5 Unibet Still waiting to see his full potential. Do not have a good position until now, but may use the next stage. Tom Boonen 1 pt W 4.00 Sportingbet As i said Boonen won the stage in 2010. Looking at the two finishes he seems the stronger sprinter. In Stage 2 the bad position cost him the win. Now it may be different. Will put later H2H bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Andrea Guardini – Michael Van Stayen 2.070 Pinny Italian was behind twice in the recent stages, but is just another class. He must find his way to attack in the Third stage. Van Stayen’s max is 15-20 place with such a high roll players. In all bookies the chances for Van Stayen to win the stage are double then those of Guardini. Matteo Peluchi – Russel Downing 2.070 Pinny Peluchi was twice ahead of Downing. Showed good skills in the fast sprint in Stage 2, where was 11-th. Dowining will have a lot of duties to deffent Flecha and work for better sprinter as Hunt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klopsikus Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Andrea Guardini – Michael Van Stayen 2.070 Pinny Italian was behind twice in the recent stages, but is just another class. He must find his way to attack in the Third stage. Van Stayen’s max is 15-20 place with such a high roll players. In all bookies the chances for Van Stayen to win the stage are double then those of Guardini. Matteo Peluchi – Russel Downing 2.070 Pinny Peluchi was twice ahead of Downing. Showed good skills in the fast sprint in Stage 2, where was 11-th. Dowining will have a lot of duties to deffent Flecha and work for better sprinter as Hunt. I bet Guardini today morning in WIllhIll for 2.25 with Stayern. For me there was wrong odds, should be 1.57 for Guardinin, so big value. We will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar I am giving up with Guardini, seems he do not keep his form in Qatar. Stage 4 Greg van Avermaet 18 Unibet place Scored few placers in previews years. Now he is wide back in GC and may try some breakway as i expected in previous days. Good odds for place. He is very good sprinter and if he finished with main group have some small chances to get into Top 3 Boonen Win Stage 4 Unibet, bet365, Sportingbet 4 Tom Boonen lost his chanecs in GC. But still he will be hungry for stage wins. If he managed to be in the main group, for sure will put his Stage 3 disapointment into his feet. Tom Boonen - Hausler 2.26 Pinny Still think that Boonen is in better sprinting conditions then Hausler. Was unlucky twice with puncture in Stage 3 and against the wind in Stage 2 Veelers - Kristoff 2.40 Pinny Until now it's 2:1 for Kristoff, but they never was in contention for Top places. Veelers is better sprinter then both. Kristoff has a teammate Marcus Burghard, who is still in Top 10 contention for GC, while Veelers is free from such duties. 50-50 chances with better odds for Veelers. Round up Tour of Qatar stats H2H -3,84 pts. Overal -12.5 pts (i am counting Boonen bet for GC as lost, cos don't think he has any chances to win) Overal -8,4 pts. Overal -24 pts. The numbers are very bad :) But still fighting as Rocky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klopsikus Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar My only play for tomorrow: Luca Paolini - Filippo Pozzato 2 @ 2.15 Centrebet Stake 8/10 In my maths betting system see nice value here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar OK, time for last stage Yesterday was fine day, close to Boonen win and finally van Avermaet managed to finish in front group. Both H2H are W Stage 5 Winner Tom Boonen 4,5 Paddy Tom has two wins in the same stage in previous years. Showed good attack yesterday, but just failed to get. Still he do not have support from very capable Quick Step sprinters as Steegmans and Chicchi. For example Leopard guys having very big impact on Bennati;s good placing in stages. Also Boonen loves not so fast pace, because he has far better accelerations then the other guys, except maybe Cavendish. But Cav for sure will work for Renshaw tomorrow. Top 3 Greg Van Avermaet 1 pt E/W 101 bet365 Showed good signs. He was in the front group that rode very well and if they hadn’t be caught by Hausler, Renshaw and Boonen group he probably had scored a podium. Now he still has chances for some break. The final stage is shorter which benefits breakways. Hausler, Benati and Renshaw will keep an eye to each other. Maybe some of Sky guys, who are back in GC will iniciate a breakway. H2H Jeremy Hunt – Mirco Lorenzato 2.25 Paddy Until now it’s 2:2 in the sprint stages. Hunt seems in better form then Lorenzato and he is fighting for Top 5. Sky team showed amazing form and very good trains this year in Tour of Quatar. I have one other H2H, but expect some better odds latter today or tomorrow morning! Summary Tour of Quatar Overall: -11,9 Pts. H2H -1,18 Pts. Summary 2011 Overall -23,9 H2H -5,74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar H2H Tom Boonen – Henrich Haussler 2.19 Pinny Tom as I wrote knows well the final stage and the finish. He will ride with free mind, cos he already lost the chances for GC, while Haussler, Benatti and Renshaw must look each other in the final km. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klopsikus Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar My yesterday little lucky, both at the end of the group, but finally Pozzato was better (pos 71, Paolini 83). For tomorrow 3 bets which some value for me: Tom Boonen - Denis Galimzyanov 1 @ 1.676 7/10 Gert Steegmans - Wouter Weylandt 1 @ 1.758 2/10 Marcus Burghardt - Jeremy Hunt 1 @ 2.69 6/10 All odds from Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar What a stage to finish this year Tour of Qatar :) My good friend Andrea Guardini finally showed his qualities..... Hats and pockets down to him :) Totally unlucky with Van Avermaet who was in very nice break up, but suffered a puncture in the worst time 30 km before the finish with more then 4 minutes ahead of the main group. Boonen wasn;t in contention this stage. Later will make final round up :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klopsikus Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar that's hurt me: 45 Jeremy Hunt (GBr) Sky Procycling 46 Marco Corti (Ita) Geox-TMC 47 Geert Steurs (Bel) Topsport Vlaanderen - Mercator 48 Marcus Burghardt (Ger) BMC Racing Team only 3 position Boom - Stegmans + Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogii55 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar Summary Tour of Qatar Overall: -16,9 pts. H2H: - 3.18 pts. 2011: Overall - 28.9 pts. H2H -7.74 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klopsikus Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Cycling - Tour of Qatar My bets here at Tour of Quatar: -2.3 unit Tomorrow starts Tour of Oman. Here my 3 bets for 1st stage: Pinnacle: Mathew Goss vs Danielle Bennati 1 @ 2,09 6/10 Edvald Boasson Hagen vs Thor Hushovd 2 @ 3,2 3/10 Theo Bos vs Denis Galimzyanov 1 @ 2,1 2/10 And some matchups for tour:Pinnacle: Konstantin Siutsou vs Andriy Grivko 1 @ 1,637 2/10 Edvald Boasson Hagen vs Lars Boom 1 @ 1,581 4/10 Taylor Phinney vs Fabian Cancellara 2 @ 1,565 3/10 Maybe lets start one cycling treat for whole season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.