Money1989 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was thinking about this kind of betting and want to hear your opinion here. From my experience, derbies always have more goals in the second half. Any other suggestion?! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Newsflash: Even matches between sides 2,000 km apart across Europe have more goals in 2nd half. Usually 55% are scored after the break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money1989 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Newsflash: Even matches between sides 2' date='000 km apart across Europe have more goals in 2nd half. Usually 55% are scored after the break. Nice one Kumquat Tree! Usually 55%, and the odds are 2.00 in bet365(about more goals in second half). Anybody else with some stats about which football leagues have higher percentage, i mean over 60%-65% from the matches, of more goals in second half? We are on the right way people! Please, participate! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Another forum member had different opinion, he thought that evens on more goals in second half was poor value; his thread was very short-lived, but I think it's worth looking at: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/half-most-goals-101333/ Common trend is indeed that more goals are scored in second half, I didn't have exact data that Kumquat Tree provided; though, that doesn't mean you don't have to be very selective: I took a quick look at some leagues played yesterday and in Tuesday... and results seem to be dissapointing from your point of view (I can't be arsed now to prepare a real table, I hope you'll understand written this way): League - Total matches - More goals in first half - Tied - More goals in second half England Premier 10 5 1 4 England Championship 12 5 3 4 England League1 12 3 2 7 England League2 11 3 3 5 Italy serie A 9 4 3 2 So, only 22 out of 54 matches had more goals in second half, which is not very bright figure at given odds; one round in five leagues surely is not representative sample, but I'm suspect this strategy is more safe or more profitable or requires less efforts than any other one... Good luck, anyway, curious to see results! :ok Edit: So, if you have chosen, let's say, England Premier, you wouldn't have much of profit... in fact, you would lose about 8% of your bank: out of 244 matches so far, 69 had more goals in first half, 65 tied and 110 had more goals in second half; note that, at odds John007 provided in above mentioned thread, none of these outcomes would provide profit at level stakes: 69 * 3.10 = 213.9, 65 * 3.75 = 243.75, and 110 * 2.00 = 220.00, with total of 244 units staked... Bookies are not easy to beat! ;) I can't provide you with link to these stats, as their name was banned at Punterslounge, they spammed forum; that's why I made this screenshot - spot the address in top left corner, then choose "Data Base" in top right corner, choose the league, and you'll find stats for all other leagues, if you want to research before putting your money - league overall can't bring the profit, but it's obvious that some teams tend to score more goals in first or in second half, which may help your selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovo.cosmico Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Hi there, Maybe I can add something new to this discussion. We notice a trend at a trading forum I usually check: When a game ends 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, at half time, the probability of a goal the 2nd half is very high. Maybe it's a psychological thing... Let's check the last 5 days (Flashscore - european leagues only): 02/02 - 8 games apply - 5 of them had a goal on the 2nd half - 62,5%; 01/02 - 8/5 - 62,5% 31/01 - 1/1 - 100% 30/01 - 21/14 - 67% 29/01 - 23/18 - 78% We use this % data for the classic "Lay the draw". At half time, the draw odds will be around 2.0. You just wait for a goal, favourite or underdog, and the odd will go straight up. Well, maybe some of you will find a punting angle here. Cheers :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Ok, I took the liberty to check a bit more than the last 5 days. Let's say a small sample of 37,782 matches in several European leagues over the last 10 years. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 8,881 had a 2nd half goal, that's 71.4%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 3,107 had a 2nd half goal, that's 73.6%. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 5,229 ended in a draw, that's 42.0%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 1,670 ended in a draw, that's 39.6%. So at first glance, we have HT draws other than 0-0, to produce a little more matches with 2nd goal halfs and therefore ending a littles less in a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Hi there, Maybe I can add something new to this discussion. We notice a trend at a trading forum I usually check: When a game ends 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, at half time, the probability of a goal the 2nd half is very high. Maybe it's a psychological thing... Let's check the last 5 days (Flashscore - european leagues only): 02/02 - 8 games apply - 5 of them had a goal on the 2nd half - 62,5%; 01/02 - 8/5 - 62,5% 31/01 - 1/1 - 100% 30/01 - 21/14 - 67% 29/01 - 23/18 - 78% We use this % data for the classic "Lay the draw". At half time, the draw odds will be around 2.0. You just wait for a goal, favourite or underdog, and the odd will go straight up. Well, maybe some of you will find a punting angle here. Cheers :D i think you will find the draw @ half time tradeing at 2.3 plus(never seen it @ 2) ,and much higher for free scoreing teams i.e barca,real madrid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half And just for fun. What about "lay the draw" after let's say 76 minutes are played? :dude 5,368 matches were 0-0 after 76 minutes, of which 1,811 still had a goal, that's 33.7%. 6,470 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... after 76 minutes, of which 2,469 still had a goal, that's 38.2%. 5,368 matches were 0-0 after 76 minutes, of which 3,720 ended in a draw, that's 69.3%. 6,470 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... after 76 minutes, of which 4,242 ended in a draw, that's 65.6%. Make up your mind... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half The 4000 latest PL matches: 1st half most goals: 29.3% (meaning odds of 3.41) 2nd half most goals: 43.03% (meaning odds of 2.32) Draw: 27.66% (meaning odds of 3.61) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Wow there's a huge amount of statistics in this thread. Really amazed by the effort you guys put in. I think the key lies in that there are 3 possible outcomes, in which a tie occurs quite often too. So even if more goals are scored in the 2nd half, an odds of 2.00 wouldn't be value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half The 4000 latest PL matches: 1st half most goals: 29.3% (meaning odds of 3.41) 2nd half most goals: 43.03% (meaning odds of 2.32) Draw: 27.66% (meaning odds of 3.61) And including 10 years worth of some other top leagues: 1st half: 28.7% 2nd half: 42.7% draw: 28.6% So basically the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money1989 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Froment remember these two things (I bet u already know them): Nothing comes easy in the life..and it doesnt matter how many battles (bets) we will lose if we won the war(double our bank or whatever our goal is) :) So the conclusion here is that without checking stats and analizing our bets, every betting strategy is worthless and in the end will bring nothing but negative profit. After your taking last week Premier League results i've done some research and came to these facts about Premier League(overall for this season,thanks to Froment and his work): Premier League (matches with more goals in 2nd half/all matches) 110/244=45.08% from all matches(so far) Each Team Stats: 2010/2011 2009/2010 Liverpool: 15/25=60% 15/38=39.5% Man.Utd: 11/24=45.8% 23/38=60.5% Arsenal: 12/24=50% 16/38=42.1% Man.City: 8/25=32% 13/38=34.2% Chelsea: 8/24=33.3% 19/38=50% Tottenham: 10/24=41.7% 16/38=42.1% Sundeland: 10/25=40% 11/38=28.9% Bolton Wanderers:17/25=68% 15/38=39.5% Blackburn Rovers: 12/25=48% 15/38=39.5% Newcastle United: 9/24=37.5% n/a Stoke City: 14/24=58.3% 16/38=42.1% Fulham: 7/25=28% 16/38=42.2% Blackpool: 11/24=45.8% n/a Aston Villa: 11/25=44% 11/38=28.9% Everton: 8/24=33.3% 18/38=47.4% West Bromwich: 13/24=54.2% n/a Birmingham City: 11/23=47.8% 19/38=50% West Ham United: 9/25=36% 19/38=50% Wigan Athletic: 12/25=48% 20/38=52.6% Wolves: 12/24=50% 15/38=39.5% From this i see that teams with percentage under 40%(in premier league) and also teams with percentage over 52% are good for betting with 50% Martingale bets.Odds are 3.10+ for the former and 2.05+ for the latter. We should analyze the others leagues too cause there is not only Premier League out there :) As I can see there is no consistency in Premier League so we should pay bigger attention on the other leagues. WE ARE ON THE RIGHT WAY PEOPLE, THERE WILL BE A STRATEGY OUT FROM THIS ONE, I SEE VALUE (MAYBE NOT ON BETTING ON MORE GOALS IN 2ND HALF BUT IN 1ST HALF) WITH USING 50% MARTINGALE BETS. Pay more attention people, give your best and lets find out how to beat the bookies on the long run. Right now i'm making some calculations in excel with using 50% Martingale bets for betting on 1 half>2half. Keep in tough! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovo.cosmico Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: More Goals In Second Half Ok, I took the liberty to check a bit more than the last 5 days. Let's say a small sample of 37,782 matches in several European leagues over the last 10 years. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 8,881 had a 2nd half goal, that's 71.4%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 3,107 had a 2nd half goal, that's 73.6%. 12,438 matches were 0-0 at HT, of which 5,229 ended in a draw, that's 42.0%. 4,221 matches were 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, ... at HT, of which 1,670 ended in a draw, that's 39.6%. So at first glance, we have HT draws other than 0-0, to produce a little more matches with 2nd goal halfs and therefore ending a littles less in a draw. Thanks for the stats Kumquat Tree. Ten years WoW... Anyway, lately I had some good results trading this way. Wait for the score at HT, LTD, wait for the goool, and trade it up straight away. The good thing I notice is that, when you LTD at SP, if the underdog scores first your bound to lose some money. Trading this way the back odds will soar with any goal (well, probably not on Barcelona or Porto games:tongue2). So, on your opinion there's no punting edge on this, is it? Thanks again :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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