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NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers


AGurv
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IMO, if Pouncey is not playing this game, then Greenbay is the play. If he isn't I wont bet it, if he is I will probably take the Steelers The game is essentially a toss up. Both defenses are solid, and both offenses can put up a lot of points. I think the biggest thing is that the Steelers biggest weakness is the secondary. If you want to look at last years game...Steelers won the game on a last second TD. Ben threw for 500 yards and Charles Woodson got smoked. Heath Miller and Hines Ward who like to catch balls going across the middle both had 10 + receptions and 125 + yards. Ike Taylor and Gay both got smashed. But Gay isn't the starter anymore and Mcfadden will be on Donald Driver (not sure if it really makes that big of a difference) The Running games will be totally ineffective. Might as well ignore it. I know Starks won't get anything and Mendenhall might have a TD but dont see him breaking any huge runs. I'm not a totals player, but you have Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers. Two of the best defensive minds in the game with TWO WEEKS to prepare for the game. I know a lot of you don't watch college football. But Oregon and Auburn played in the championship, and both had explosive offenses. The defensive coordinators both had a month to prepare and both offenses were shut down. I think a play on the under might be worth a look. When you have 2 coordinators like this, 2 weeks is a lot of time to evaluate how to stop an offense.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers I backed the Packers to win superbowl but to be honest i am not confident they will beat the Steelers, i couldnt take the 4/6 on offer for the Packers,its too close to call. 13/10 for the Steelers looks far better value. Cant see the packers being able to have any run game against the steelers, the Steelers will not win the game by running but they will be able to run with more success than Green Bay so will be able to mix it up far more. Interceptions will be critical and IMO Green Bay will have to be careful as they will be forced to throw a lot of long 3rd downs. i will have have a look at odds on offer and maybe a saver bet on Pittsburgh to win by over 12-15 points,

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Superbowl: Green Bay @ 14.00 Centrebet Like Green Bay and Pittsburgh to advance to the Superbowl (see previous write ups). Both have very good QB, while their respective run games are decent (Pittsburgh has the better rush offence) while the two defences are very good. Where there may be a weakness is in Pittsburgh's pass defence as New England caught them out with quick, short passes and they were able to advance the chains, and this is what GB do well also with Jennings and Driver. Apart from that, better value on the Packers to win this http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f68/nfl-wildcard-weekend-picks-111747/

IMO, if Pouncey is not playing this game, then Greenbay is the play. If he isn't I wont bet it, if he is I will probably take the Steelers The game is essentially a toss up. Both defenses are solid, and both offenses can put up a lot of points. I think the biggest thing is that the Steelers biggest weakness is the secondary. If you want to look at last years game...Steelers won the game on a last second TD. Ben threw for 500 yards and Charles Woodson got smoked. Heath Miller and Hines Ward who like to catch balls going across the middle both had 10 + receptions and 125 + yards. Ike Taylor and Gay both got smashed. But Gay isn't the starter anymore and Mcfadden will be on Donald Driver (not sure if it really makes that big of a difference) The Running games will be totally ineffective. Might as well ignore it. I know Starks won't get anything and Mendenhall might have a TD but dont see him breaking any huge runs. I'm not a totals player, but you have Dick Lebeau and Dom Capers. Two of the best defensive minds in the game with TWO WEEKS to prepare for the game. I know a lot of you don't watch college football. But Oregon and Auburn played in the championship, and both had explosive offenses. The defensive coordinators both had a month to prepare and both offenses were shut down. I think a play on the under might be worth a look. When you have 2 coordinators like this, 2 weeks is a lot of time to evaluate how to stop an offense.
AG: We think alike here. Thinking of hedging this bet, now that the Packer have been made -3 favourite for this :loon. Getting plus money on the Steelers means that there is a bit of value here. Thought this will come out as a pick, with not much separating both sides. Even more so, the total is at 46, way too high IMO. Two top defences and like you said, with two weeks to prepare, they will have to have plan for something new on offence to be able to outsmart the opposing defence. I was on the unders in the BCS Championship, and leaning that way too. Either way, should be a great game, especially as it has been awhile since my Packers made it this far. :cheers Record: 13-5 (+15.59)
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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Typical Black and Gold last, build up a lead and then shut the opponent down. I can`t see this happening here, however, I think they will win their 7th Lombardi. The key is the word team and I think they really are playing for one another and a big plus is No. 7, a big occasion QB. A tight game but I`m taking the Steelers M/L 13/10 with Coral.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Superbowl XLV Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Under 46.0 points @ 1.90 (Paddy Power) Taking this early as the line has dropped already in most places from yesterday and I would expect it to maybe drop more. 46 points is a high total for any game involving the Steelers, but throw in a strong Packers defense too and it seems way to high. The Superbowl is a bit more of a lottery and the Steelers-Cardinals Superbowl went to 50 points two years ago, but the Packers seem to me a more balanced team and I think should be able to keep Big Ben taking over. He struggled against the Jets and Mendenhall really had a good game to run for over 100 yards, and he will have to do the same against Green Bay. Rodgers might just have the arm to beat Steelers but I'd like to think this would be a tight defensive game. I understand why the Packers are favourites but I think the Steelers still should be, but I have to say it does pose an intriguing match up. I'm looking for the two defenses to cancel out some of each teams offense and I just feel this line is too big. Steelers to get a narrow win in a relatively low scoring game IMO.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers you guys have no idea how excited I am. So lucky to be a Pittsburgh Steeler fan regardless of outcome I should have been arrested last night, but the cop told me to "just go home son"

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Just looked at the odds and I'm really surprised the Packers are favourites for this SB. I seriously expected the Steelers to be about 1.75 on the ML, but instead its the opposite way around :loon I was hoping to play the Packers something like +3.5, but I'm not interested in that department now. I think the Packers might just sneak it, but it's a real 50/50 match.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Well done on calling both conferences BC :clap I hope your Green Bay superbowl bet is a loser within the first half though. :tongue2 Already have the Steelers for the championship so wont be playing any sides in this one but will be interested to see some odds for the MVP award.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers I was able jump on the Packers @17.00 and @7.50, also got the Steelers in week 3 @13.00, so was able to hit both ways. So many variables in this one. Packers are rolling and Rodgers is on fire. There defense has been equally huge, they've faced Cutler twice, Ryan twice, Vick, Eli, Brady, Hill, Favre, Alex Smith and Sanchez in their last 11 games. The defense has given up an average of 13.5 ppg. They've forced 28 TOs since then, around 2.5 TOpg. Their offense should be even more dynamic in the dome. Rodgers has had his 2 best games of the year in domes @Atlanta and @Minnesota. The Steelers are decimated on the OLine but that didn't faze them against the Jets as Mendenhall ran wild. Big Ben covers up plenty of mistakes by the OLine, other than Rodgers, Vick and Manning I don't think any other QB would survive behind this line. The defense is stout as usual, the toughest set of LBs, and they're healthy all throughout the defense unlike last season. The Packers are slightly the better team but the Steelers mental toughness along with the Packers inability to put teams away makes this tough to handicap. McCarthy has let countless team hang around (e.g. both Eagles games, Skins game, Lions wk4, Vikes wk7, and the Bears last week). I can see the PAck getting up by a couple of scores and than McCarthy will go into a shell and next thing you know Big Ben has the ball with 2 mins left and the Steelers are down 4. Should be a great game, these teams played in arguably the game of the year last season @ Heinz Field where Big Ben hit Wallace on a 20yd pass with no time left to win 37-36.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Superbowl XLV Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Aaron Rodgers Over 34.5 Passing attempts @ 1.85 (Bwin) I've looked at the past records for Superbowl games and the amount of passes that are attempted is always high especially with passing teams. Last season, New Orleans vs. Indianapolis, two pass heavy teams, Brees attempted 39 passes, and Manning attempted 45. The season before, Rothelisperger attempted 30 passes and Kurt Warner attempted 43. Now with the Steelers having the stingiest rushing defense, and also not often giving up big long yardage plays, Rodgers will have to pass a great number to get anywhere. The only concern I can see with this bet is if Green Bay race out into the lead, but I think this game should be tight and Aaron Rodgers should have a busy night and attempt 35 passes. What you guys think about this?

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers I am leaning towards the Steelers @-2.5 @2.55. Think this game can go either way and the value is on Steelers atm. Might wait a little more towards game time as I believe money will start pouring in on Green Bay. If the spread hits 3.5 then you can sell up to -2.5 and get odds of around 2.70!

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Superbowl XLV Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Aaron Rodgers Over 34.5 Passing attempts @ 1.85 (Bwin) I've looked at the past records for Superbowl games and the amount of passes that are attempted is always high especially with passing teams. Last season, New Orleans vs. Indianapolis, two pass heavy teams, Brees attempted 39 passes, and Manning attempted 45. The season before, Rothelisperger attempted 30 passes and Kurt Warner attempted 43. Now with the Steelers having the stingiest rushing defense, and also not often giving up big long yardage plays, Rodgers will have to pass a great number to get anywhere. The only concern I can see with this bet is if Green Bay race out into the lead, but I think this game should be tight and Aaron Rodgers should have a busy night and attempt 35 passes. What you guys think about this?
Haven't taken this yet because I wanted some opinions on it, but it's the same bet has gone down from 1.83 to 1.74 on Bet 365 but Skybet have posted the line at 33.5 so might take that @ 1.91. EDIT: Screw it, I've taken it. Very tempted to take Pittsburgh ML too but I think it's safer to avoid trying to pick a winner.
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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers AGurv , Why do you think that the center is worth so much ? I know he made the probowl and people have been talking a lot of good about him all year . But how much say does a center really have in a team winning or losing . Just curious , maybe I can learn something here . I would think that also the backup center has had some time to prepare with the first team ..

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers I'm on the Packers . And sticking with my gunz . I hear a ton of talk about the steelers' ability to stop the run , that is all true but to be honest I don't think it will matter . many teams and coaches go run first and that plays into the steelers' strength the Exceptions are Packers/Patriots/Colts . Those types of teams give the steelers a lot of trouble . Mike McCarthy is very aggressive and fearless , his play calling and the Packers execution on offence is incredible . The Steelers are too traditional in my opinion , when you throw different things at them and are aggressive on O they are vulnerable . I have ALWAYS believed also that neither Rothlesberger nor Tomlin are very good in their roles , they both inherited a very good team , and believe me I have won quite a few bets backing the Steelers . I think their reign of dominance comes to an end here gentlemen . Another thing I think too many people have forgotten , A few years ago the Steelers basically LOST the superbowl to the Seahawks if it was not for some very controversial calls by the refs . A few years later Arizona scored like 40 points on them and lost by another controversial catch by santonio Holmes . I hope I'm right here , if I lose I lose but I believe this one is for Aaron Rodgers ...

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

AGurv ' date=' Why do you think that the center is worth so much ? I know he made the probowl and people have been talking a lot of good about him all year . But how much say does a center really have in a team winning or losing . Just curious , maybe I can learn something here . I would think that also the backup center has had some time to prepare with the first team ..[/quote'] Sorry, just getting to this. Yes I think the center is a VERY important position. I already bet the Steelers, so clearly me just wanting to bet my team has thrown all logic out the window. But IMO the Center is the third most important position on offense. The first being the blindside guard. The second being the QB, and the third being the center. You have to be comfortable with your center as a QB. The center and QB are the only people that touch the ball every single play. Against the Jets, we lost 2 points because of the center. (Bad snap by Legursky). A new center might not know the snap counts as well. Might just snap the ball wrong altogether like he already has done. I think generally we will be fine because its not like its Legursky's first go around. But if he doesn't know whats going on, we are essentially ****** Anyway, HERE WE GO STEELERS. Hopefully you guys will see me here Sunday night/Monday Morning (picture from 2009 Superbowl win celebration, you could commit murder in Pittsburgh on Sunday night if the Steelers win) 2312644230072668858JuvFZj_ph.jpg
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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Fair enough , and your backup center will have his hands full of BJ Raji , lol . By the way , I'm sure you guys probably got the news by now but Pouncey is officially ruled out for the SB ... Here is the news clip .. Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) has been ruled out for Super Bowl XLV after missing Friday's practice. All along, Pouncey (and perhaps Mike Tomlin) was the only guy thinking he had a chance to play. Doug Legursky will get the start against Green Bay's smoking-hot defensive line as Pittsburgh gears up to use four projected backups along the front five. Pouncey's high sprain and left ankle break is likely a several-week ordeal, but he'll be fine by the usual start of OTAs. Feb. 4 - 3:05 pm et

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Hope you are right Rick121212 , I just received devastating news that a super square that NEVER wins is all over MY Packers .. But I guess even a blind pig can find an acorn every now and then , right ?? Is that how the saying goes ? I hope this is his acorn and he doesn't sink my ship ... :ok

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Hope you are right Rick121212 ' date=' I just received devastating news that a super square that NEVER wins is all over MY Packers .. But I guess even a blind pig can find an acorn every now and then , right ?? Is that how the saying goes ? I hope this is his acorn and he doesn't sink my ship ... :ok[/quote'] This is a strange post-season...The value in the NFC championship game was clearly on the Bears +4 at home, after Packers fans (and I am one) bet up the line, and although the Packers kept them in the game with poor play calling (and better Chicago defense as the game went on), there was no doubt who the better team was. In this game, the line opened pk, and Packers fans have bet up the Packers to the point where the value clearly is on Pitt +2.5 or +3. But still, there's no way I'd take it. In fact, I wouldn't touch this game at all...any result is possible...14-13, 35-31, 42-3 either way. I mean it. There is no one thing you can point at before this one and say one team or the other has an edge. The one thing I will say is that neither team will get starry-eyed or fail to show up. But who knows who will make the plays or fail to make the plays? I personally think the Packers can move the ball through the air here, and that the Steelers' run game will be tough to stop for long, but it will really depend, won't it? I will say this: If the Packers allow Hines Ward to come up big in a key situation, as he always does, then the Steelers' edge in coaching will be apparent.
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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Am new to the scene here on PL but have been following you guys on the NFL this year. Looking at the markets for the SuperBowl was interested in Big Ben total rushing yards over 15.5?? Thought that Ben may have to take off several times to gain some yardage. Thoughts and comments please.

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Am new to the scene here on PL but have been following you guys on the NFL this year. Looking at the markets for the SuperBowl was interested in Big Ben total rushing yards over 15.5?? Thought that Ben may have to take off several times to gain some yardage. Thoughts and comments please.
I would play over 15½ for sure , I did not find that prop though . I played Packers total rushing yards over 76½ , I believe Aaron Rodgers' leg work alone should get me 15-20 yds which leaves about 55 yards for the trio of running backs . Maybe they even get a few rushing yards off a reverse or something , which I don't think is out of the question ...
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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers The game is being shown in the UK on two seperate channels - BBC 7 SKY sports. Cant wait for the action - just a shame the game wont finish until around 3am with me getting up for work at 6am!!! Have played Big Ben rushing bet - thanks for the confidence!!!

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Re: NFL Superbowl Pick: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers As Pirate says,the game will be covered by the BBC and SKY, BBC will have Mike Carlson in the studio + no adverts after every stoppage so no contest i will be watching the game on BBC, Its a mystery to me why Carlson has been on C5 last few years when they covered NFL. cant understand why SKY have not tried to have him on as regular host. SKY will have Kevin Cadle,Jay Schroeder, and Cecil Martin. in Sudio and Nick Halling at the Superbowl.

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