2011 Boxing Thread

[kevshat]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Good work Johnny, and a belated :welcome to PL. Hope to see you picking plenty more winners :ok.

[DafsT]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

:beer +10pts.

Bradley by decision covers technical decision as well on SportingBet, right?

[J0hnnyTightlips]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Good work Johnny' date=' and a belated :welcome to PL. Hope to see you picking plenty more winners :ok.[/quote'] Cheers. :ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Januarys profit/loss as posted.

January
Bet No.	Post	Selection	Stake	P/L	Cum P/L
DafsT
1	2	Jamoye v McDonnell - various	3	-3	-3
2	12	Karl bt McIntosh	12	-12	-15
3	28	Chavez Jr bt Lyell 1-6 and 7-12 split	13	-13	-28
4	28	Bradley bt Alexander Dec/TD	11	10	-18
LtfcPete
1	4	Matthews v Lawton - various	22	-7	-7
2	15	Karl bt McIntosh - various	15.5	-15.5	-22.5
3	16	Jamoye v McDonnell - various	12.5	87.96	65.46
4	21	Bradley bt Alexander - various	14	6	71.46
wrimc
1	5	McDonnell bt Jamoye	10	10	10
2	5	Matthews bt Lawton 1-12	10	-10	0
PaulM03
1	14	Karl bt McIntosh	10	-10	-10
2	25	Bradley bt Alexander	10	5.3	-4.7
Superfoo
1	23	Alexander bt Bradley	12	-12	-12
2	27	Prizefighter winner	24	2	-10
3	27	Morris bt Slade	7.5	6.75	-3.25
J0hnnyTightlips
1	24	Bradley bt Alexander Dec/TD	10	10	10
				Total	55.51

I will try and post up on a monthy basis and any queries can be resolved before the end of the following month, as Im bound to get a thing or two wrong at some point, so it would be appreciated if you guys could let me know of any errors ASAP. I have a couple of queries that I will mention at the end of the post. First up well done to all - top class posts that shows the thread in good profit for January, mainly thanks to a shrewd touch of punting from LTFCPete. There is some good knowledge out there so keep your opinions coming. Welcome to the thread J0hnnyTightlips (who called me up in his 1st post:tongue2) and wrimc (whose name i recognise from somewhere) whos reasoning and knowledge will benefit the thread greatly- stick around guys:ok P/L was hit mainly by McIntosh beating Karl but a bit was redeemed with the Bradley Dec/TD which proved a popular winner ( I was the only loser, need to stop going against my inclinations and opting for "value"). The following is only a bit of fun and only my opinion:tongue2:ok so not to be taken seriously... Punter of the month - LTFCPete Punt of the month - LTFCPete (J.McDonnell to bt. S.Jamoye by MD 81.00 1pt) Bum of the month - Superfoo!!!:$ Simply because I tried to justify an Alexander victory and no-one else lost a bean on the fight! Good luck for Feb all!!!:ok:hope:hope:hope

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread "I will try and post up on a monthy basis and any queries can be resolved before the end of the following month, as Im bound to get a thing or two wrong at some point, so it would be appreciated if you guys could let me know of any errors ASAP. I have a couple of queries that I will mention at the end of the post." Please guys if you want to be involved, do your best to help me out here. LTFCPete - After 3 bets I had your total as +65.46pts but you state your profit was +58.98pts. Sure you are not too concerned but Ive looked a couple of times and I think that it is right - let me know what you think. J0hnnyTightlips - Welcome mate. On your orginal post you didnt put a stake. I took it from a later post that you staked 10pts. Please post stake in future (that is if you want to be included in the yable, iif not then thats fine) as if no stake is posted prior it will not be counted. DafsT - No offence buddy but as you mentioned in the post it was a bit late and Dickinson had already won his first fight in Prizefighter so for that reason it is not included in the table (just wanted to clarify). Cheers guys, good luck and keep those gloves up!:ok

[wrimc]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Posting a bit early but im away all weekend and i wanted to get this one in Jason Booth v Jamie Arthur - Booth UD Evens @ Skybet 10pts Good little scrap this but cant see anything but a Booth win here and the bookies have him up at 1/8 outright so looking for value we have to go for the method of victory which seems to me to scream a Booth decision. Arthur is a good domestic level scrapper and has campaigned at the higher weight challenged Lindsay at feather for the British title. In that fight Arthur was beaten soundly on points despite suffering a cut his corner kept him in and though he was taking a beating didn't look like getting stopped. Booth has campaigned as light as flyweight and is probably still too small for super bantam but will almost certainly outbox Arthur but hasnt got the power to stop him. Despite Arthurs gameness i doubt he will get recognition on the scorecards and Booth should cruise to a wide decision which is priced up at 8/11 so for that extra bit of value have gone for the UD

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'll check that out foo and get back to you.. good effort with the table, keep it up :ok J.Booth to bt. J.Arthur by Decision 10pts 1.80 SportingBet J.Booth 10-12 2pts 10.00 Bet365 J.Booth v J.Arthur Draw 0.5pts 34.00 Boyles I'm with wrimc on this one. There is a slight concern that Arthur gets cut as he had been badly in the past but SportingBet pay out on a TD if it comes from a head clash. Arthur is definitely game and I was really impressed with his bravery against Lindsay where he was getting beaten up for large chunks of the fight, one in which he was outpointed by a wide margin. He's not one to quit even if he knows he is well behind on the cards. Booth did well in spots against Molitor and he is a class above Arthur for sure, although not world class. He's not known for his power, having stopped only 15 of his 35 wins but I feel there is a small chance he wears down Arthur late on so I'll have a saver on that also. EDIT: I've been mulling this over and have convinced myself this could be tighter than would first appear. Arthur should be high on confidence and is in good form. The bout has been made on short notice and it seems this would be in Arthur's favour if it does either fighter. As a result I think these are overpriced so I'll have a punt.. J.Booth to bt. J.Arthur by MD 0.75pts 34.00 Skybet J.Arthur to bt. J.Booth by MD 0.75pts 126.00 Skybet J.Booth to bt. J.Arthur by SD 0.5pts 9.50 Skybet J.Arthur to bt. J.Booth by SD 0.5pts 11.00 Skybet My biggest bet, on Booth by decision, would still make a 3pt profit if that is the only winner so I'm happy to have a go on the longer shot ones as there are a few intriguing intangibles in this one that could mean it turns out to be pretty tight.

[DafsT]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Sergio Mora x Jason Booth by decision 10 pts Bet365 @ 2.30 Sergio Mora (22-1-2, 6 KO) is a much better boxer than Bryan Vera (17-5, 11 KO) and in my opinion, will be way too slick for the journeyman. In his last fight, Mora drew with Shane Mosley, who faces pound-4-pound king Manny Pacquiao in his next fight. He's also been 1-1 with the late Vernon Forrest. Vera's wins come against up and coming prospects like Sebastian Demers and Andy Lee. Mora is seasoned, and although disliked because of his boring style, is a very good fighter. Jason Booth (35-6, 15 KO) to cruise to a decision against Jamie Arthur (18-4, 4 KO), and the only other possible outcome I can see is the fight stopped on cuts in Booth's favour. Arthur is more about heart and determination than ability and skills. He'll come forward, but the superior boxing ability of Booth should see this through in a relatively entertaining contest.

[Otter4]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread nice call lads on the Booth decision! :clap cheers for the tip!

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread +7.75pts for me, very close to a majority again but not to be. Up to +79.21pts for the year.

[J0hnnyTightlips]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

J0hnnyTightlips - Welcome mate. On your orginal post you didnt put a stake. I took it from a later post that you staked 10pts. Please post stake in future (that is if you want to be included in the yable' date= iif not then thats fine) as if no stake is posted prior it will not be counted.

Thanks. :ok I'll make sure it's clear next time.

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread A.Abraham to bt. S.Bozic by KO, TKO or DQ 10pts 1.62 Boyles A.Abraham v S.Bozic Under 7.5 Rounds 5pts 1.91 SportingBet Taking this one now as the price has dropped overnight and looks likely to get even shorter. Abraham has suffered mightily as his competition has been stepped up in the Super Six and he has been handed two wide losses in his last two outings. However limited and painfully predictable his style can be, the fact remains that Abraham will still feast on cans like Bozic. This is a tune-up bout, nothing more, and will serve to give Abraham a much needed confidence boost ahead of a surely guaranteed shellacking at the hands of Andre Ward in May. Bozic isn’t a contender, nowhere near in fact, and has been stopped twice against his two biggest opponents to date. Abraham remains a very powerful puncher, having stopped 25 of 31. This level of opponent is perhaps more reminiscent of his first 14 bouts, each of which ended inside the distance. The only men to take Abraham to a decision have for the large part been boxers a step or two above Bozic's class. I’d be very surprised if Abraham doesn’t get him out of there, and he can do it before the 7th of this 10 rounder.

[J0hnnyTightlips]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'm also on Abraham by KO, TKO, DQ which is 1.62 at Boyles, as posted above. Mainly for the reasons Pete has posted. Despite his recent losses he is still a massive puncher and I feel Bozic is hand picked opponent for Abraham to knock him out and regain a little confidence in the process. Abraham KO,TKO or DQ - 10pts @ 1.62 Boyle.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Just going to take this while its there (though worryingly its drifting) will justify tomorrow. 10pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 15/8 Sporting Bet 5pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 1-6 16/1 Sporting Bet 5pts Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott 1-6 13/5 Sporting Bet (backed in) 1pt Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott Rd10 33/1 BWin

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Just going to take this while its there (though worryingly its drifting) will justify tomorrow. 10pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 15/8 Sporting Bet 5pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 1-6 16/1 Sporting Bet 5pts Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott 1-6 13/5 Sporting Bet (backed in) 1pt Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott Rd10 33/1 BWin

I'd somehow missed they were even fighting :\ This could be one where some decent money is made; it seems obvious to me Olubamiwo is going nowhere but McDermott is very unpredictable. I like the look of McDermott 5-10 at a massive 16/1.. that muscle mass Larry carries could really hurt him against someone who'll be in his face for the majority of the fight and he could tire. Peret is sort of a poor man's McDermott and he beat him in 2009, albeit only in a 6 rounder but he is sort of a gatekeeper's gatekeeper and the likes of Price, Dallas, Ferguson, Fury, Chisora, Belshaw(!) and McDermott have all handled him easily in the past. I'll come back with what I'm taking once I've had a think but good spot - have these prices just gone up today?

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread They were taken 5 mins before posting and are still available. Youve summed up what I was thinking but Im pretty wasted right now to justify.

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread J.McDermott to bt. L.Olubamiwo 10pts 2.88 SportingBet J.McDermott to bt. L.Olubamiwo Rounds 6-10 3pts 17.00 SportingBet L.Olubamiwo to bt. J.McDermott Rd 1 1.5pts 15.00 Skybet This one all depends on which McDermott turns up but I’ve no idea why Olubamiwo is favoured so heavily here. He’s lost his last 4 but could/should have won at least 2 of them if not 3. If McDermott can avoid the 1-2 from range then I don’t see what Olubamiwo is going to do to win the fight. It seems he does not have much of a taste for being hit and looks utterly befuddled when his opponent gets in close. His defence is not good, he’s there to hit and his punches look awkward to say the least. I think McDermott has a big advantage on the inside and will hold his own at range, he’s a big boy but has been the distance in 3 of his last 4 so stamina shouldn’t be much of an issue. McDermott is a much better boxer, that much is clear but it really depends on what mental state he is in. There are certainly more ways McDermott wins this, I really think he should be favoured and if Olubamiwo doesn’t fall off here, it won’t be too long after I don’t think. I’m not settled on a method of victory at the moment but I’ll take the later rounds stoppage just for the value. I think it’s worth a max bet as you’ll very rarely see such odds on a guy who is clearly better is pretty much every department.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Just going to take this while its there (though worryingly its drifting) will justify tomorrow. 10pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 15/8 Sporting Bet 5pts McDermott bt Olubamiwo 1-6 16/1 Sporting Bet 5pts Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott 1-6 13/5 Sporting Bet (backed in) 1pt Olubamiwo bt Mcdermott Rd10 33/1 BWin

Funny as McDermott has drifted a little further. Much agree with what Pete said though with not as much confidence. Theres no doubt big Larry has power but it is more of a clubbing power which naturally goes with his huge physique. However, despite the circumstances it is difficult to tip someone who has lost his last 4. However, I feel it is inevitable that Larry will fade, he laboured in his last victory and that may be a problem against this step up and more seasoned opponent. It is well known that McDermott suffers with nerves and a concern is that Larry could simply jump on him before he gets going. If McDermott can get through the first few rounds and implement his boxing the I give him a really good chance, rumour has it he is also putting in a dedicated camp. Larry has never been stopped as pro or am and I cant recall him being in serious trouble but the big value for the later round stoppage is if he gasses having to that huge frame around in a competitive fight and from that point of view I think 16s is huge.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread John Watson v Anthony Crolla This has the potential to be a cracker and on paper is real 50-50 fight. Watson was meant to be rematcing Rees after their cracker of a first fight where the step up in calss all looked a bit too much for Watson only him grow in the fight and mount a good comeback before being stopped in the 11th. Theres no doubt Watson deserves this opportunity, though we wont know until the fight if the Rees war has taken anything from him. Crolla also deserves his opprtunity, although he is having to make the step in weight. With his height I don’t think the step up will be too much hindrance to Crolla (who has regularly sparreed with Murray) and hopefully he can take his new found power up with him. He fought well in an up and down battle with Sykes, showing a good chin and has improved whilst going undefeated in 6 since, knocking out a faded Brodie en-route. Despite home advantage and natural size being against him, I think Crolla can come out the victor in this with his slick abilities and high volume style. Recommended bet 20pts Crolla bt Watson 6/4 Betfred

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Eddie Chambers v Derek Rossy Chambers comes back from his devastating last round ko from Klitschko in a rematch against Derek Rossy. When they met previously 4 years ago Rossy was undefeated in 14 and showed inexperience in blasting away at gloves before gassing and dominated culminating in him being stopped in the 7^th . I think Rossy is more experienced and improved fighter since that defeat. This being Chambers first fight since that heavy ko, I expect him to take a couple of rounds to feel out his opponent. With Chambers not being the biggest hitting heavyweight and Rossy on the whole having a decent chin I think this will be going into the second half, that’s if Rossy doesn’t make the same mistakes again. Alvarez v Decarie I like Decaire in this one. He seems a confident and likeable guy. He is a busy puncher with good technique and can box well behind the jab but he lacks power. Alvarez was touted as a decent prospect but fell easily enough to Josha Clottey when stepped up. He has won 2 lost 2 since, it could be argued that his calibre of opposition has been a little better than that of his opponent. Home ground in Montreal for Decaroe could prove to be a key factor as well if there are some close rounds. Chambers v Rossy +6.5 4/9 Bet365 Decarie bt Alvarez 5/9 Bet365 Recommended bet 20pts Double @2.25

[slizorn]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Eddie Chambers v Derek Rossy Chambers comes back from his devastating last round ko from Klitschko in a rematch against Derek Rossy. When they met previously 4 years ago Rossy was undefeated in 14 and showed inexperience in blasting away at gloves before gassing and dominated culminating in him being stopped in the 7^th . I think Rossy is more experienced and improved fighter since that defeat. This being Chambers first fight since that heavy ko, I expect him to take a couple of rounds to feel out his opponent. With Chambers not being the biggest hitting heavyweight and Rossy on the whole having a decent chin I think this will be going into the second half, that’s if Rossy doesn’t make the same mistakes again. Alvarez v Decarie I like Decaire in this one. He seems a confident and likeable guy. He is a busy puncher with good technique and can box well behind the jab but he lacks power. Alvarez was touted as a decent prospect but fell easily enough to Josha Clottey when stepped up. He has won 2 lost 2 since, it could be argued that his calibre of opposition has been a little better than that of his opponent. Home ground in Montreal for Decaroe could prove to be a key factor as well if there are some close rounds. Chambers v Rossy +6.5 4/9 Bet365 Decarie bt Alvarez 5/9 Bet365 Recommended bet 20pts Double @2.25

Superfoo, just wondering, are you working with a 100pt bank or a 1000pt bank? Just curious to know the strength of your bets, thanks :)

[DafsT]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Eddie Chambers v Derek Rossy Chambers comes back from his devastating last round ko from Klitschko in a rematch against Derek Rossy. When they met previously 4 years ago Rossy was undefeated in 14 and showed inexperience in blasting away at gloves before gassing and dominated culminating in him being stopped in the 7^th . I think Rossy is more experienced and improved fighter since that defeat. This being Chambers first fight since that heavy ko, I expect him to take a couple of rounds to feel out his opponent. With Chambers not being the biggest hitting heavyweight and Rossy on the whole having a decent chin I think this will be going into the second half, that’s if Rossy doesn’t make the same mistakes again. Alvarez v Decarie I like Decaire in this one. He seems a confident and likeable guy. He is a busy puncher with good technique and can box well behind the jab but he lacks power. Alvarez was touted as a decent prospect but fell easily enough to Josha Clottey when stepped up. He has won 2 lost 2 since, it could be argued that his calibre of opposition has been a little better than that of his opponent. Home ground in Montreal for Decaroe could prove to be a key factor as well if there are some close rounds. Chambers v Rossy +6.5 4/9 Bet365 Decarie bt Alvarez 5/9 Bet365 Recommended bet 20pts Double @2.25

Taken a similar bet, but with Ramos/Valdez over 8.5 @ Evs instead of Decaire > Alvarez... @ 2.89 Also gone for Hernandez by decision @ 7/4 [sportingbet] (4/10) and Cunningham by decision @ 8/11 [sportingbet] (10/10)... I'll have to reason in a more sober state tomorrow morning.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Hi Slizorn. I work with a roll of 1000pts with 10% of my bank being my max bet. I very rarely go max, in fact have only done so 3 or 4 times in the last 2 years. That said I intended to be a little more aggressive this year.

[wrimc]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Watson V Crolla This is a good match for the title both are really game and hungry for titles. I think Crolla is on the resurgence and really fancied his chances at super feather for the British title. What i would say is that Crolla has come in at 3 weeks notice for this fight Watson has had about double that time for to prepare and Crolla is coming up in weight. The fight is in Liverpool and i feel that this might buoy Watson to victory in a closely fought battle. I think ultimately the fact that Watson is big for the weight and is fighting a super feather and the fact he has home advantage and more notice for this will ultimately make the diffference in a close scrap. Ive gone for Watson points @ 6/4 Skybet 20 pts 1pt on draw @ 25/1

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Dafs - Quite like your bets. Agree with the Cunnungham despite his struggle and somewhat luckiness against Ross. As for Hernandez I guess that would be my first choice but his chin seems very suspect but that could serve well to the purpose as he may be reluctant to get too involved. add to the fact that Herelius is awkward. That said with what I have seen of his chin I was looking at 6s for a shock Herelius stoppage.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Cant fault you there wrimc. Not too worried about the late notice as he seems to keep up his training and was scheduled to fight Johanssen anyway - I see it as confidence that he was willing to take it:tongue2 Gallagher says he has a plan and I believe him;) Worth checking around mate as 13/8 is available at Boyles. GL and may best man win as long as its not a Watson stoppage!

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Wrote this before I went out and seems there has been a fair bit of interest since! J.Watson v A.Crolla Fight To Go The Distance 10pts 1.67 PaddyPower J.Watson to bt. A.Crolla on pts 5pts 2.63 Boyles J.Watson by MD 1pt 29.00 Skybet J.Watson by SD 1pt 15.00 Skybet A.Crolla by MD 1pt 34.00 Skybet J.Watson v A.Crolla Draw 1pt 29.00 Boyles This one looks like it’ll be a long affair with neither fighter having much of a dig and both at similar stages of their careers, with not much to separate them in terms of ability. Crolla has stopped 7 of 19 but most of those were in his early days, indeed he has only stopped two fighters with winning records. Michael Brodie was long past shot when Crolla stopped him and it seemed to me exhaustion got the better of Andy Morris when he was halted by Crolla. Watson has stopped 5 of 13 but his victims read even worse than Crolla’s. When he’s been stepped up a bit he’s either gone to decision or been beaten as was the case with Rees. In the fight with Rees, Watson was pummeled early by the classy Welshman but Rees’ approach, with his constant pressure and powerful shots, will be something Crolla won’t be able to match, at least physically. He brings pressure, but it’s not as vicious as what Rees brings and he’s unlikely to stop Watson who is the naturally bigger man. Watson will be fighting at home and will likely pick up many of the closer rounds on the cards with the crowd behind him. Crolla can take some punishment, and I don’t think Watson will be able to stop him either. That leaves a points decision as the likely outcome and due to the 50/50 nature of the fight I think it’s worth taking a punt on the longer odds as these have been fruitful in the past couple of weeks with similarly matched fights. The Crolla SD price was only 4/1 for some odd reason so I've left that one out as I don't see it as value.

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Taken a similar bet, but with Ramos/Valdez over 8.5 @ Evs instead of Decaire > Alvarez... @ 2.89 Also gone for Hernandez by decision @ 7/4 [sportingbet] (4/10) and Cunningham by decision @ 8/11 [sportingbet] (10/10)... I'll have to reason in a more sober state tomorrow morning.

Yeah, I've not seen much of Licina but it appears he's a solid, high guard Ulli Wegner fighter who is very tough to stop. Coupled with Cunningham's ring rust that looks a decent bet.

[DafsT]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Dafs - Quite like your bets. Agree with the Cunnungham despite his struggle and somewhat luckiness against Ross. As for Hernandez I guess that would be my first choice but his chin seems very suspect but that could serve well to the purpose as he may be reluctant to get too involved. add to the fact that Herelius is awkward. That said with what I have seen of his chin I was looking at 6s for a shock Herelius stoppage.

Troy Ross is much better than Enad Licina. Licina is a spoiler type fighter for a cruiserweight, but he struggles with boxers that can move their feet (Hernandez, Godfrey)... Cunningham is aging and inactive, so the temptation would be there to bet against him if it was Huck, Ross or Levedev. I think he should comfortably beat Licina on points. Herelius is very awkward and tries to jab his way to victory... Hernandez has the height and reach advantage I believe, so that gameplan might be out of the question, and with the doubts over Hernandez's chin, he'll be more wary than usual coming up against a guy considered heavy handed. I'm not overly impressed by either guy's power though, even if Hernandez blasted Ismailov out in 1. Both chins are fragile, Hernandez more suspect than Herelius. I can't see Herelius getting a decision, which leaves Hernandez by a tentative decision.

[superfoo]

Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Hernandez bt Herelius Dec/TD 9/4 Boyles Cunningham bt Licina Dec/TD 4/7 Boyles These were selected by Dafs and have been touched upon in posts above. Not going to expand too much. These to me seem the two logical outcomes though as mentioned I have concerns about the Cubans chin - I can forgive getting caught when dominating Braithwaite as Big Truck can punch hard (Hernandez was even helped up by the ref the first time) and given every chance to recover. Its the knockdowns and wobbles from journeymen - that said he came through. The double pays a reasonable 4/1 but will only be playing low stakes. 5 pts above double @ 5.1 Boyles