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Atko

Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

What do you think the odds will be in the final if Murray gets there? Djokovic 1.8 maybe. 1.70 perhaps.
I'd have Djokovic around the 1.70 mark, which would be too short for me to back. Murray around the 2.25 mark. I still think Djokovic will win on current form but Murray would probably raise his game. Anyway, he isn't there yet, and the handicap is looking ropey again.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

And right on cue, Murray is having his usual dip. Absolutely no chance of beating Djoko IMO.
Imho djoko has been absolutely superb in this tournament, however i think he will struggle majorally in the final, it is expected to be 40 degrees here in melbourne on sunday, and 39 on monday (so will stay very humid over night probably around 31-32 at midnight) novak will really not enjoy that one bit..

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yeah, Djoko will probably be unbackable. It's all mental with Murray, so if he looks unconvincing here, which he kind of is, then no one will give him chance and that's when he'll relax and get under Djoko's skin with his patience and persistence. We know he's got the game, unlike the likes of Ferrer.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Imho djoko has been absolutely superb in this tournament' date=' however i think he will struggle majorally in the final, it is expected to be 40 degrees here in melbourne on sunday, and 39 on monday (so will stay very humid over night probably around 31-32 at midnight) novak will really not enjoy that one bit..[/quote'] I don't think that will affect Djoko too much, because I've never been blown away by Murray's much feted physical fitness in grand slams anyway. Too often he looks physically shot himself at the end of majors. I would agree if Djoko was playing someone like Nadal. Djoko has also had an undemanding route to the final as well, and will have had an extra day's rest than either Murray or Ferrer.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

2.75 pretty poor odds' date=' over 3 available and certainly has to be considered. Of course the Bryans should win it, but its sport B/P will do their best to get that one trophy that is still missing in their cabinet, and @ 3+? Yes, at least they will try hard.[/quote'] Thanks Tulenos, I can't get anything above the 2.75. Maybe I'll try a small parlay with them and some other selections. Appreciate the feedback!

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I couldnt back Murray or Djoko with any conviction in that final.
Pretty much sums it up. Some obviously will, but I'll be staying clear. Very hard to find an edge betting-wise.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

- Andy Murray -5.5 games AH (vs David Ferrer) @ 1.862 with Pinnacle (8/10) LOSS
Disappointing way to end my Australian Open with a -0.5 game loss but that's the way it goes sometimes. Ferrer battled more than even I thought he was capable of and I feel a bit sorry for him, he probably will never get a better chance to win a Slam. I won't be getting involved in the final because I couldn't call with any certainty how it will go - one to just enjoy. Despite today's result, it's been another extremely profitable slam, not just for me but for many others (Czech, IAG, the two particular stand-outs). Great work as always :ok

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ferrer gets the very best out of his game, credit to him super tournament i really think andy will take heart from that comeback, just needs to be positive:hope

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Ok, I will jump on that now, whatever the change in odds will be. (9/10) N.Djokovic to bt. A.Murray @ 1.80 at Paddy Power Cannot see past Novak after the Ferrer clash. Andy is still under huge pressure to win a Slam and Novak has some confidence with that Roger win. I think he is the better player overall and has the experience of winning a GS final, which may well play a role. He has been playing extremely well this year and while both players had minimal dips, I think Djokovic has proved more. If I see another bookie offer it 1.8+, I am adding the final point to that bet (twice my usual flat stake). Really, I cannot see past him, but I can understand why others may want to stay away. I do not, however - I will take the risk here.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Murray -4.5 over Ferrer @ 8/11 (Stan James:5pts) Murray 3-1 vs Ferrer @ 5/2 (Paddy Power: 1pt) Murray 3-0 vs Ferrer @ 11/8 (Paddy Power: 1pt)
WIN WIN LOSS Lucky day really. Narrowly got the -4.5 and one of the correct scores hit - in general I think correct scores are mug bets. Actually felt sorry for Ferrer there - such a great competitor. Looking back to his 07 form. I think Clijsters will beat Na Li pretty well in the women's final - not sure if there's anything worth playing there. Well done everyone!

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Joining the challenger bandwagon today - I need action:tongue2 Sport Tennis Event Knittel v Meffert Selection Knittel Strength 10/10 Date 28/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 1.87 Reasoning Didn't really know Knittel before this week, but he looks a good player. Big serve and pretty solid. He's had a couple of very good wins over Golubev (quality and good record here) and Andreas Beck. So he seems in top form and should be good here. Meffert is a solid player, not as good as he was a few years ago. I think Knittel will come through.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Back to clean competitive tennis next week......Zagreb indoors...........:lol
Is that usually bit of a minefield then? Lots of weird results etc?

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Clijsters (BEL) vs Li-Na (CHN) Clijsters -3.5 @Pinnacle 1,752 edit: adding Clijsters (BEL) vs Li-Na (CHN) Clijsters to win 2-0 @Pinnacle 1,971 Clijsters recovering from her leg problems that affected her during the first week of the tournament. It was apparent in her match with Zvonareva where she literally outplayed Vera 62 64 in two straight sets. Vera and Li-Na have similar style, both are big hitters and capable of bombing lines in long rallies, of these two IMO Vera is better player. Yet this was not enough against Kim which is now in superb top form. Also we have this mental issue - Kim already won a slam (US Open last year), while for Li-Na this is the first grand slam final ever. And Kim did beat Li-Na in both Grand Slam matches they played against each other (US Open 2009, Wimbledon 2006). Adding to this Li-Na's inconsistency, I cannot see past Kim here, probably in two sets. Djokovic (SRB) vs Murray (GBR) Djokovic @Pinnacle 1,714 I second Czech in this. Unfortunately, the odds are not what I would prefer to see, but be it. From what I have seen in the semifinals, this is the only logical conclusion. Two matches in a row Andy was rather shaky, dropping a set to Dolgo and nearly losing (well, almost) to Ferrer. IMO had Ferrer won that 4th set tie-break, Andy had been gone. On the other hand, Djoko is a man on the mission. If he keeps the level he had against Federer, there is no doubt about the result. GL

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Is that usually bit of a minefield then? Lots of weird results etc?
Like you'd never believe :loon Strange things happen in Zagreb, I suspect this year will be no different. There will be bets to be had though ...

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) People can someone help me pls??? On betfair are handicap tennis bets settled with tie break scores included in the handicap or is it just the 7-6 included..ie I had a lil flutter on Murray -5.5 after he lost first set so he either won it easy with the two tie break scores of 7-2 included with the 6-1 or lost on the 7-6 overall scores. Hope that makes sense! Many thanks

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Sport Tennis Event Djokovic v Murray Selection Djokovic Strength 10/10 Date 30/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.75 Reasoning Missed 1.80, but this is best available and I think will lower before game time. Djokovic in top form and should be buoyed by win over Federer. His form seems near the top level and he is very sharp. Also he's got the job done in grand slam final before which Murray has not. Murray has looked very good in this tournament, but in semi final not so good maybe night match not suiting him so much. He's also seemed to have a little injury problem and in interviews when asked he didn't say no, just that "at this stage everyone is carrying something" (I paraphrase) which is a bit negative I think. Djokovic had extra day to recover which is a plus. Good price I think.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

People can someone help me pls??? On betfair are handicap tennis bets settled with tie break scores included in the handicap or is it just the 7-6 included..ie I had a lil flutter on Murray -5.5 after he lost first set so he either won it easy with the two tie break scores of 7-2 included with the 6-1 or lost on the 7-6 overall scores. Hope that makes sense! Many thanks
It's a game handicap so that counts as 7-6

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Really bad slam for me really as had no profit but a small loss which I always consider a failure for a major as there are so many opportunities. Would have been a differnt story if Murray had covered the handicap or backed Li but wasn't to be. Looks like other had good success though which is nice to see. Bring on Zagreb.

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Does anyone give Na Li a chance here? Yeah she's playing well and has a game capable of winning a Slam in the future but I really really can't look past Kim in tomorows final. She's a better player and has shitloads of experience to fall back on. I think there is some value in Kim winning 2-0 at 10/11, it has come in from EVS overnight. Am I underrating Li too much here or is it a good shout?

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Like you'd never believe :loon Strange things happen in Zagreb' date=' I suspect this year will be no different. There will be bets to be had though ...[/quote'] Last year I tried the "back the underdog" system in the WTA Kremlin Cup 1st round. Basically this means one should put 1 unit on every underdog with odds higher than 2.5. Kremlin Cup 1st round was nice profit. Now, Zagreb Indoors is the first ATP tournament in 2011 where similar strategy should work, at least it worked in 2010, 2009 and 2008. I am definitely going to try it again (in the first round only - it's important).

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