NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

[AGurv]

NFL 2010-2011 Overall 40W-27L-1P +8.55 units (59.70%) Packers ML +115 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Watched round one of this matchup (actually had the Falcons) and the Packers should have won this game. Believe they had a couple crucial turnovers, with the biggest one being a fumble at the 1 by Rodgers. Rodgers came out sharp out against the Eagles. Starks had a great game and hopefully that carries over. Falcons been in basically cruise control the last few weeks, I think the Packers have an edge with being in playoff mode the last few weeks. Didn't look that great against the Saints especially and really turned me off in that game. Hopefully McCarthy doesnt **** it up.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Early lines for next week: Pittsburg -3.5 v Baltimore and total at 36.5 Atlalnta -1 v Green Bay and total at 45.5 Chicago -9.5 v Seattle and total at 40 New England -9 v New York Jets and total 45.5 Early leans on Pittsburg, GB, Seattle and NY Jets

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Defense - Even. Both secondaries are weak. But with Polamalu and Reed they suddenly become good. The front 7 are as even as they get. Both running games will be taken away. QB - Steelers. Ben has never lost to the Ravens as long as Flacco is QB and Harbaugh is coach. Ben is 8-2 I believe overall. The Ravens dont have the better passing game. If anything there even. When you look at the numbers anyway. But if you ask me do I want Ben or Flacco leading me? I'll take Ben everyday. I guess thats just a matter of opinion...but Ben certainly has the proven track record of being clutch. While Flacco has the proven track record of being unclutch RB - Ravens. I don't think Ray Rice is anything special. But Mendenhall is about as average as they get. He has the potential to break it open but your surprised when he does. WR - Steelers. The Steelers have a huge lead in this category IMO. Mike Wallace has wayyyyy better numbers then Boldin does. Hines Ward and Mason do essentially the same things. Same thing with Miller and Heap if you want to just throw them in the same category as WR. TJ is a solid #3 for the Ravens but Sanders has similar numbers and Randle El does as well. We are just deeper then them and our #1 is better I forget what ESPN guy said it, but Mike Wallace essentially is what makes this team. I honestly think he might be one of the fastest guys in the league My Opinion - Obviously I will say the Steelers are gonna win this game. But it will be close so I'm just gonna lay off altogether and I would just rather cheer for team instead of hoping they score a TD for the cover or some shit. I wouldn't feel that comfortable with 3.5 either. Not like someone winning this one by a TD wouldn't be considered a close game.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks 3 of the 4 margins this week were by 1-6 and although I played it on the game that was won by 23pts I think the same should offer decent value again this week. GB @ ATL Falcons never really beat anyone by a big score at home, but by the same token they generally win at home. Not sure if I favour them or Green Bay but whoever I do decide I'll take them by 1-6. Should pay about 4.50 which is over twice the line odds and it's the type of game where I think you're always likely to have a look. Seattle @ Chicago Seattle actually won this fixture earlier in the season and a Seattle win certainly wouldn't surprise me. That said, I don't really feel comfortable on either side of this game and will just sit and watch. Jets @ New England As a Steelers fan I'd love to see the Jets win. Unfortunately, I just can't see Mark Sanchez beating Tom Brady in a playoff game. That said, I do think it will be much more competitive than the last game. Not sure if it's true, but I read that ROAD TEAMS with a winning record who lost against a (divisional?) opponent by 14+ last meeting are 29-4 ATS in post season. Again, not sure if it's true or not, but either way, I think the Jets have a generally strong defense and running game and will be able to keep Pats close enough, but will never really look like winning due to Sanchez. Pats 1-6 should offer some value IMO though. Ravens @ Steelers By and large I agree with what Agurv has said. For me the Ravens secondary is a little stronger but Steelers defense is better overall due to the number of playmakers on their teams. Whilst I expect yards conceded etc. to be similar, I think Steelers might get the better of turnovers, which we saw in the last game can be crucial. Definitely agree on Roethlisberger and I believe the record is indeed 8-2. His ability to extend plays is so pivotal, particularly when the pace of Wallace makes him hard to cover for any period of time. For me Flacco is much more susceptible to pressure than Ben and consider both D's are good at rushing the passer I think this could be another area where turnovers play a key role. Call me crazy too, but I think Antwaan Randle El may have something to say about the outcome of the game. It's already worked twice this season and in a relatively evenly matched game the extra little bit of dimension it adds to the offense could prove important at some period of the game. Pretty sure that the last 3 or 4 of these fixtures have been decided by a field goal or less and again I think that a 1-6 margin bet could be the play here. Needless to say I'm going with the Steelers to be that winning team.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Good point on Randle El Crouch. Can see us running a trick play and have him throwing the ball at least once in this game. Also here is just a ridiculous stat. Big Ben and Mike Wallace have connected for 8 40+ yard TD's (which is a record). This was Wallace's first full season as a starter! If I really think about it, maybe im just being a homer. But a front 7 that includes Harrison, Woodley, Timmons, Hampton, Hood and Farrior ( I thought he was done last year tbh, great comeback year) just seems almost unfair to me. Those guys can all make huge plays. We shall see. Good luck to Steeler backers, good health to Ravens game. There is no way I will bet this game though. Just throwing some stats around

[meatman]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Some interesting stuff said already with some good points. Here's my take on the big match next week from a Ravens point of view:- QB Flacco v Big Ben, I give Ben the slight edge here. First, he has the habit of often beating us and second he has the extra play off/superbowl experience which is so vital in the post season. His extra strength, fight and ability to almost get something out of nothing is also a plus point. Nevertheless, I think Joe has certainly developed this season though and his throwing arm is actually stronger than some give him credit for. The win against KC is definitely going to give him plenty of confidence, because the last few games before that he didn't throw for that many yards, it wasn't really his fault but for any QB, its nice to get a 250+ yard match under your belt, especially in the play offs. Joe is going to have to be alert against this Steelers defence because they will come after him and the OL just cant be relied upon for protection all the time. He needs to make some rushing runs more, as he did against KC and just in generally be slightly more inventive Defence -both exceptionally good against the run, the Steelers stats especially are excellent. Both defences have weaknesses in the secondary, the question is whether the opposition can take advantage. Overall I think these two defences are a complete even match there isn't anything between them. Running game - I don't think there's much between Rice and Meandenhall, Ricey has looked sharp for us in the last few weeks but it'll be one hell of a challenge against this defence. McGahee is another option and Harbough is going to have to rotate a bit here to keep them fresh. Overall I'm inclined to give the Ravens a very slight edge in this department, but its irrelevant because the match wont be won or lost on the rushing game. Receiving - Wallace is someone who impresses me a lot and his pace means he's capable of going quickly. Ben went to him a lot in the last H2H game and I expect the same again. Got the feeling we will struggle against him and it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a TD. Ward doesn't worry me too much, we've been able to keep him quiet in both games this season, whenever I've seen him this year he seems a little below par, I don't know what Steelers think of that? The Ravens I think have more depth in this department with. Boldin is solid without being spectacular, he doesn't drop many. Todd Heap is often underrated and could play a big part, also more fresh after missing about 3 recent games towards the end of the season. Mason and TJ are decent enough and Ray Rice will often receive as well as just rush. There's no doubt that the Steelers have the biggest weapon with Wallace and other decent options, but I think the Ravens have more depth, which maybe evens itself out. Sepcial teams Kicking - Ravens have the edge here with Cundiff who leads the league touchbacks and average yardage off the kick off. Steelers on the other hand are actually ranked joint last, although depsite many getting returned, they don't usually allow much yardage. Punting I think Ravens have the edge with Koch as well. With field goals both Cundiff and Suisham don't miss many, but nothing over 50 yards will be kicked at Heinz Field. Will special teams make much of a difference? maybe, but in all truth it wont be a huge factor. The winner of this ballgame will be the team who makes least mistakes, or who avoids a mistake at a crucial time in the 4th quarter. In the last game it was Flacco with that fumble off Polamawu, its just things like this which can be a game turner. If Flacco can produce a near faultless performance then I think the Ravens have a decent chance, of course thats a big 'if' though. There is very little between the two teams and this is capable of going either way. I'm leaning towards Ravens +3.5 because I think if anyone wins, then it'll be by 3 or less. I might look at Flacco's overs, he has passed over 250 yards in both divisional games this season and will simply have to pass it here. Might have a look at Big Ben's overs too, and if there's a silly high line on any of the running backs rushing, then I'll take the unders. Looking forward to it!

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Anyone got any ideas why the hell the Chic/Seattle total is 40 and seemingly falling??!! :eek Unless there's a blizzard on the way, Bears get it on their own. ;) Alt/GB under...and the "big" game is a classic under, but well met by the books @ 36.5. May tease...

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

My Opinion - it will be close

Come on mate, nows you chance to smack those over-rated Ravens... ;) ;) :lol

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks GB @ ATL under 45.5 (1.91 @ Sportingbet) Chicago v. Seattle OVER 40 (1.91 @ Sportingbet) Locked in... ...(unfortunately, now it appears that there just may be a blizzard @ Chicago. :wall )

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

GB @ ATL under 45.5 (1.91 @ Sportingbet) Chicago v. Seattle OVER 40 (1.91 @ Sportingbet) Locked in... ...(unfortunately, now it appears that there just may be a blizzard @ Chicago. :wall )

No, the report looks good so far, 23 F and snow showers.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Sounds like a blizzard to me mate! :lol (Although, being here in Brisbane means I'm probably exagerating everything atm. :( ) Green Bay just don't score as well away from home...av. just over 18 ppg on the road, and will surely look to re-establish their 'new found' run game this week. Probably won't have a choice as Falcons have been taking away the long ball all year...have given up just 38 passes of 20+ (4th best)...held NO to 17 by doing just that a couple of weeks back. Of course Turner will be Atlanta's main focus as always... ...should be a tight game either way, 23-21ish max either way... :unsure Seattle defense...gives up near 30 points and 400 yards per game on the road...have given up 34+ in 6 of last 8 overall!! :eek ...not entirely convinced about the Bears D either...Jets, NE and Philli have all taken them apart recently...gave up nearly 400 yards to GB early (home)...forget Det in week 1 (Stafford/Hill), Washington and Minni... ...of course gave 23 to this same team in week 6. Seattle will know their best chance is in the air...Hasselbeck should be good for a Bears score or two. I reckon the 'Hawks are a real chance here...either way, 20 each looks well within reach. :ok Good luck guys. :cheers

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks New England's trip to Chicago was supposed to be a blizzard and that still cleared the total in the first half! Off topic, but I take it you've managed to avoid the floods Taza?

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Yeah mate, cheers. Traffic being a total bitch yesterday arvo was as bad as it's been for me. House was never in any danger luckily. Some shit times for a lot of people tho. Interesting to see how the airport fares if the river makes it to 5m... ...(not that it matters. They keep coming out of Sydney like there's no tomorrow! :eyes :lol)

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks regular Chicago weather. Doesn't usually get that cold in Seattle, but I doubt it has any affect on the game at all. Anything less then an 4 inches doesnt count in the Northern part of the US (other then the Northwest)

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Best of luck Taza. Makes me glad to live in Pittsburgh where we don't have anything happen weather terms. The worst you'll see is 3 feet of snow but you can just stay home. :loon

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Thanks buddy. :cheers (For the weather assurance too ;) ) Never seen anything like it. Pretty scary to watch video of a normal knee deep creek rise to sweep away cars and crap within about 15 mins!...without a dam breaking or something like that anyway... :\ But, like I said, literally 10's of thousands of people worse off than me right now...my biggest worry is not being able to ogle hot chicks on the Southbank beach any more! :lol Taking Balti @ Pits under 18.5 (1H) aswell. Will post some reasons soon. :ok

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Ray Rice Under 70 rushing yards @ 1.91 (Skybet) It is well documented that Pittsburgh's rush defense is by far the best in the league and gives up on average only 62.8 yards per game. Here the line is set above the Steelers average for the season which he should struggle to get here. Rice has put up some big numbers in previous games, (153 yards against the Saints) but he has only gone over this total on the road three times, against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and New England (27th, 19th, and 11th in rush defense). It is fair to say the Steelers are a cut above these teams in rush defense and perhaps the most important stat for this is that Rice has played the Steelers home and away this season and he managed 20 yards on the road and 32 yards at home. Even in the playoff game against Kansas City (14th rush defense) he only managed 57 yards. With Flacco playing well and the Steelers able to shut down the rush, I don't expect Rice to manage 70 yards and if he does well done to him.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Ray Rice Under 70 rushing yards @ 1.91 (Skybet) It is well documented that Pittsburgh's rush defense is by far the best in the league and gives up on average only 62.8 yards per game. Here the line is set above the Steelers average for the season which he should struggle to get here. Rice has put up some big numbers in previous games, (153 yards against the Saints) but he has only gone over this total on the road three times, against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and New England (27th, 19th, and 11th in rush defense). It is fair to say the Steelers are a cut above these teams in rush defense and perhaps the most important stat for this is that Rice has played the Steelers home and away this season and he managed 20 yards on the road and 32 yards at home. Even in the playoff game against Kansas City (14th rush defense) he only managed 57 yards. With Flacco playing well and the Steelers able to shut down the rush, I don't expect Rice to manage 70 yards and if he does well done to him.

agree with you Rick, he'll struggle to get past 50 or 60 yards this week IMO. I'm with you on this, but I'm a greedy bastard and going to wait and see if any bookies offer a higher line :lol

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

agree with you Rick' date=' he'll struggle to get past 50 or 60 yards this week IMO. I'm with you on this, but I'm a greedy bastard and going to wait and see if any bookies offer a higher line :lol[/quote'] I wouldn't wait! If you can get that line at Skybet then snap their hands off. He is 20/23 to get under 57.5 with Bet365 :\

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks The line is set at 45.5 yards at Ladbrokes too and is now down to 65.5 yards on Skybet. I would get on it quick.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

I wouldn't wait! If you can get that line at Skybet then snap their hands off. He is 20/23 to get under 57.5 with Bet365 :\

yeh took it as soon as I saw the 57.5

The line is set at 45.5 yards at Ladbrokes too and is now down to 65.5 yards on Skybet. I would get on it quick.

good job, knew they would move it quickly 45.5 @ lads:loon Still think the 65.5 is value, I'll write it up soon

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisperger Over 240.5 passing yards @ 1.80 (Bet 365) Another great player prop bet. Roethlisperger has had another great season as the Steelers QB and at home has been over this total every time. Baltimore's pass defense ranks 21st in the NFL whereas their rush defense ranks 5th so Pittsburgh should look for Big Ben to pass the ball often. He has passed more than 240 yards against better pass defenses than Baltimore (Cleveland, Oakland, Cinci, New York, Carolina) and with the playoff experience he has, the occasion shouldn't overawe him at all. I fully expect Ben to pass this total passing yards.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Ray Rice under 65.5 rushing yards @ 1.91 Skybet (4/10) Rashard Mendenhall rushing yards under 77.5 @ 1.91 Skybet (5/10) Joe Flacco passing yards over 228.5 @ 1.83 Bet365 (5/10) Ben Roethlisberger passing yards over 240.5 @ 1.80 Bet365 (4/10) Well like I said in my main write up of this match a couple of days ago, I cant see too many yards being obtained on the ground with both defences being pretty strong. The Steelers especially have superb stats, so for Rice to go more than 40 I think would be a fine achievement, let alone the 65.5 offered now. Ricey has been running well recently, but this is a completely different challenge, in the two previous games against the Steelers, he only went 20 and 32 respectively, I cant see too much changing. Likewise with Mendenhall, I think he’ll have tough time against this Ravens defence and struggle to go more than 77.5. Interestingly, he has only gone over this mark 7 times this season, although did go for 79 against the Ravens in the first H2H earlier in the season. A few weeks ago they restricted him to 45 though and I think something around that figure will be what happens again, unless he goes on a freak long run or something. I’m confident that most yards will be in the air for this match so I’ll go 5/10 for both. Its clear Flacco is going to have to pass more in this game so I have to take this over 228.5 line which I think he’ll make. Already this season he has covered the line 11/17 times, including on both previous occasions against the Steelers (256, 266 respectively). Last week at KC I thought he played a good game and was throwing well, and it sets him up nicely for this match. As long as the Ravens offence gets an average amount of gametime on the field then I fancy him to go past the amount required. The same for Big Ben, I think he’ll throw quite a bit here and the 240.5 yard line looks a bit too low. He has actually covered this 10/12 times this season so I see no reason why he wont do it again. Overall I think statistically, and combined factors associated with this game, I’m happy to be on the overs here. The only way he wont cover IMO is if the Steelers offence doesn’t get much time on the field, for whatever reason. Not going to touch the match handicap I dont think, just too close to call.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Matt Ryan under 240.5 passing yards @ 1.91 Skybet 4/10 My personal opinion is that this line is too big on Ryan. The Falcons will look to run the ball with Turner a lot of the time anyway and not go to the air as much. Ryan has failed to cover this line in each of the last 6 matches, that includes against the likes of Carolina, and in the earlier match against Green Bay, he only managed 197. The Green Bay pass defence was 5th in the regular season so he’s up against fairly strong opposition. I just don’t see Ryan going long in this match so more than happy to take under 240.5 passing on him.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks With these teams likely to air the ball, then the over (at 37 now) looks a good pick too

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Yeah...it's what put me off the game total in the first place...but... Pittsburgh v. Baltimore under 18.5 1H (1.94 @ Cent) League: 1-8-1 under (Av. total 42.5..a.v. score 29.9!) any road dog off a 14+ ats win as road 3+ fav with 34+ TOP. [balt] ...as I said, solid under spot with a solid defense and ball control team facing another (even better?) in the same mold...but I was a bit hestitant... ...I then saw this posted by another guy [i rate] on another forum... Balt. is 7-0 Under the 1st half total against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons.....The average half time total scored in these games was 14.1.... Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (Balt.) - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points.... Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....9-0....100%.... The average first half total posted in these games was....19.6....The average total first half points scored in these games was....13.8.... Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (Pitt.) - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after a win by 21 or more points.... The system's record this season is....5-0....100%.... The average first half total posted in these games was....19.7....The average total first half scored in these games was....15.6.... So yeah, I suspect both teams will come out quite conservatively, before beraking it open in the 2H. :ok FWIW, I've got BR over 240.5 as a play too. ...and Ryan under 240.5 is definately 'the play', but I might just be happy to stick to my game under there...:\

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Lynch under 70.5 (1.91 @ Skybet) ...is huge. But since Skybet won't accept registrations from Australia (:\), I'm going to have to pass... ...but very good line, since I'm still tempted by the under 60.5 (1.83) @ Ladbrokes. :$

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Matt Ryan under 240.5 passing yards @ 1.91 Skybet 4/10 My personal opinion is that this line is too big on Ryan. The Falcons will look to run the ball with Turner a lot of the time anyway and not go to the air as much. Ryan has failed to cover this line in each of the last 6 matches, that includes against the likes of Carolina, and in the earlier match against Green Bay, he only managed 197. The Green Bay pass defence was 5th in the regular season so he’s up against fairly strong opposition. I just don’t see Ryan going long in this match so more than happy to take under 240.5 passing on him.

My worry about Ryan and this yardage is if Green Bay took a lead in the first half and Atlanta had to chase the game. They might look to Ryan more and he is capable of passing it and getting Over 240.5.

Lynch under 70.5 (1.91 @ Skybet) ...is huge. But since Skybet won't accept registrations from Australia (:\), I'm going to have to pass... ...but very good line, since I'm still tempted by the under 60.5 (1.83) @ Ladbrokes. :$

Like this line too and I'm on this. Obviously he almost made this in one run against New Orleans but the Bears are the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL and Seattle are 31st in rush offense in the regular season. Plus, I find it hard to see the Seahawks shocking everyone again and if Chicago take a lead, Hasselbeck will have to throw more.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Pittsburgh -3.5 @ 2.08 pinnacle Over 37.5 @ 2.00 pinnacle Both sides have exceptional rush defences that will not allow much running to happen. It will force both QBs to pass the ball much more often, rather than handing it off to their respective runners, but like the Pittsburg OL line to do a much better job protecting Rothelisberger than Baltimore's OL does with Flacco. Baltimore gave up 4 sacks last week and now you have one of the best blitzing defences coming at you (lead the league with 48 sacks), and Flacco has known to get flustered when this happens, leading to errant throws and the odd interception. Big Ben too will feel some pressure with Lewis and co coming at him (they have only 23 sacks), but he does have the ability to scramble out of the pocket, and would not be surprised in these cases, that Baltimore blows their coverage, believing that the action is dead when Big Ben sends one over to Wallace. His link up with Wallace in the latter half of the season has been very good, and do not think that Baltimore has the same combinations working. Both secondaries have shown that they can be passed on, and though they have some very good safeties, often they come in for the big sack, leaving one-on-one matchups, and like i said, believe Pittsburg has the edge in finding these situations. Would not be surprised though that some of these blitzes from both sides are successful, which leads to turnovers, and shorter fields to work with. As a result the over also looks like a good pick. Two very similar sides that will pound each other all day long. Just wonder how much of last weeks game against Kansas, took the energy out of Baltimore's game, as a refreshed Steelers side has been waiting for them. Baltimore off a short week, playing 6 days ago, and given that this will be a bruising game, Pittsburgh may have a bit too much for them here Green Bay @ 2.02 pinnacle Under 43 @ 2.02 pinnacle These two teams met earlier in the season where Atlanta won 20-17 but may be considered fortunate to had done so. Green Bay's QB Rodgers had 344 passing yards (26 of 35 passes and 1 TD) as well as 51 rushing yards (and another TD), while Atlanta's QB Ryan had 197 passing yards (24 of 28 passes with 1 TD) while Turner ran for 110 of the teams 117 yards. Also it was notable that Rodgers fumbled on the one yard line. Atlanta will go with the run game once again, as they believe that this is the weaker part of the Packers defence. Turner will pound the ball, but they have already seen him once this year, and like the Packers to be able to contain him. Now if this happens, Ryan has to pass the ball. While he has an exceptional home record, in that game earlier in the season, he had completed 24 of 28 passes - an 86% completion rating which was amazing. But once again, after studying the film, is he able to repeat that effort on this 5th ranked pass defence. Doubtful he does, as the level of pressure and expectation is something that he is not used to. Furthermore, they will blitz him like they did to Vick last week against Philly, where they had 3 sacks in the game, and they sacked Ryan twice in the game they played earlier in the season. Now the Packers have a very good QB who is pretty cool under the pressure, and he led them to a 14-3 at half time with a couple of TDs against Philly last week. Their coach McCarthy went conservative and played for time, using RB Starks to good effect as he had 23 carries for 123 yards (5.3 yards per carry). Expect GB to go with same approach to hit them early with the pass, as this secondary of Atlanta's can be passed on, as in the second last game of the season, New Orleans QB Brees had 302 passing yards (1 TD and 2 INT) in their 17-14 win in Atlanta. It was notable that Ryan had just 148 yards (15 of 29 with 1 TD) while Turner had just 48 of 75 rushing yards). The Packers have had problems running the ball with Grant's injury early in the season, but with Starks doing the job last week, it may have put a dent in Atlanta's defensive plans, since they would have thought they would have no problems in defending the run, and thus allowing one more player to drop in coverage. Now they may be confused on how to stop the GB offence, and maybe they will then push one more player into the line which should benefit Rodgers in opening up the play book to find one-on-one situations which the WRs like Jennings and Driver like to take advantage of. Packers have the better QB, and the better defence, and like them to win this one, to make up for the one they should have won earlier in the season. The under looks a good play too, given that Atlanta will run the ball more often that not, while doubt Ryan gets much off this secondary this time around, while the Packers will probably go conservative once again like they did last week if they have a half time lead Chicago -10.5 @ 2.04 pinnacle Under 43 @ 2.02 pinnacle Seattle had a big upset win last week over New Orleans as a massive underdog, and they find themselves in the same situation again, but this time they are on the road. On the road, they have allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 8 games, while in each of their 9 losses for the season, they have lost by at least 15 points. Cannot see them repeating last weeks effort as the defence of Chicago will be much better than last weeks win. Though Chicago do have problems in driving the ball down the field, prior to the season ending game with Green Bay, they did score 40 points on Minnesota and 38 points on the NY Jets, so there is some form to go on. When they played them earlier in the year (round 6) and lost 23-20 to them, Chicago QB Cutler passed for 290 yards while they ran for another 61 yards. Seattle's QB Hasselbeck passed for 242 yards while they ran for 111 yards. But they faced Chicago after their bye and had 2 weeks to prepare for them, and though they also got 6 sacks that day, believe that Chicago would have learnt alot from that day. Also Chicago should close down the Seattle run game, and even though Lynch has a huge game last week, that was an aberration on the season where they averaged 89 yards per game (ranked 31st). Now they face the second ranked Chicago defence that allows 90 yards per game. When the run game stalls, then Hasselbeck will be forced to pass more, and really like Peppers and co. to get to him. Hasselbeck is known to have a poor game following a good game, and being on the road just adds to this belief that he will have problems passing on a healthy and rested Chicago defence. Furthermore, with 35 turnovers (ranked 2nd), can see Chicago causing some fumbles or interceptions here. New York Jets +7.5 @ 1.99 centrebet Over 44.5 @ 1.97 pinnacle These two teams do not like each other so should be another full blooded contest. They have each won a game over the other this season, and where both games were comfortably won, believe this will be a close game. In Round 2, the Jets won 28-14, with QB Sanchez passing for 220 yards (21 of 30 passes - 705 completion, and 3 TDs) while they ran for 136 yards as the defence had 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery and a sack. QB Brady for NE had 248 yards (20 of 36 pass completions - low 56% by his standards) and 2 TDs to go with his 2 INTs. They ran for a low 52 yards as the Jets rush defence did the job that day, and forced Brady into passing under pressure and mistakes. In Round 13, NE got their revenge at home, as they won 4-3, with Brady passing for 326 yards (21 of 29 passes - 72%) and 4 TDs while they ran for 101 yards. The Jets had 152 rushing yards but Sanchez had only 164 passing yards (17 of 33 - 52%) as he gave up 3 INTs. In each of these INTs, the ensuing drive led to NE TDs, so they scored 21 points from them, when they could have conceded points instead. Also, while they only gave up 1 sack, the Jets got 3 of their own, so even when he had a good day, they still managed to get to him. The Jets learnt from their loss against the Colts earlier in the year to contain QB Manning, as he only had 225 yards while they allowed 93 rushing yards. The Jets pounded the ball last week for 169 rushing yards, and they have done well in both game on the ground against New England, so that this will be their plan once again. Sanchez did ok well last week, with 189 passing yards (18 of 33 - 55% with 1 INT) as he took a back seat to the running game, but like him to do well here against a NE secondary that can be passed on, as they allowed an average of 259 passing yards per game (ranked 29th) during the season. NE will look to Brady to open up the Jets defence, as doubtful that they will have much success running on this 3rd ranked rush defence (91 yards per game). With the Jets running the ball, their defence should get some more time to rest and prepare for Brady, and while they will not stop him completely, given how good he is, beleive that they can do enough to contain him to keep this game close. Like the look of a high scoring game as both teams have shown that they can score on the other in the two games they played this year, and doubt that there will be much in it, in the end, with the Patriots probably edging this. Record: 4-2 (2.56)

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Jets LOTS of injuries bc... :\ One more I'm looking at closely, but haven't yet decided is... Rodgers OVER 23 completions (2.20 @ Olympic) Mainly based on price, I have to say, given I've been tossing up over 22.5 (1.86)... ...but this Atlanta secondary can be passed on...;) :lol ...but yeah, like I said earlier, they do concentrate on taking away the deep ball, which inevitably leaves short patterns and check downs open. They are 29th on the season for allowing completed passes (28th for %), and v. similar D's Rodgers has completed 34 passes v. Chic (27th and 20th), 27 v. Wash (30th and 23rd), 27 v. Dallas (22nd and 26th), 21 and 22 v. Minni (20th and 21st)...and 26/35 v. Atlanta the first time. Atlanta's numbers add up too...Gave up 35 and 30 to Brees (2nd most completions, 1st%), 27 to Bradford (7th! :eek, 20th), 36 to Palmer (4th, 13th)...22/34 to Flacco (11th, 10th)...Rodgers is 10th and 5th. Right on the limit for me...as Flacco and the Minni results show...postive being 2.20 is certainly value...negative being (again, as bc said) GB might actually get a run game going. :\ Might keep a close eye on the odds and let the voting public decide! :lol :ok