2012 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

[fintron]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return sorry, forgot to say, nice to see the thread has been so widely viewed and nice idea lads. I will be having another crack tomorrow at Wolves :tongue2

[twinny]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return Yankee 17 Jan 2011 - 4:00 Fakenham - Win Hurricane Elect' @ SP EW @ 1/5 1-3 hurricane electrics last run was 57 days ago,this horse is the adrian massey top rated horse,it normally runs in class 4 races so the drop in class will help,with a short priced fav in the race its e/w chances should be good 17 Jan 2011 - 3:40 Plumpton - Win Quartz Du Montc' @ SP EW @ 1/5 1-3 quartz du monteau is the sportinglife pick for this open looking contest,has won over this course and distance and should be involved in the finish 17 Jan 2011 - 2:40 Plumpton - Win Here's The Key @ SP EW @ 1/5 1-3 here,s the key was runing on last time only to be beaten by a neck over a shorter distance,the extra distance should help 17 Jan 2011 - 3:10 Plumpton - Win Manmoon @ SP EW @ 1/5 1-3 manmoon,this course and distance winner won last time out over this same distance and should be involved in the finish,2nd top adrian massey horse and again the sporting lifes pick EW yank placed with will hill

[bowles10]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

Just a quick question, if someone puts up 3 selections in a patent and another punter puts the same selections up in treble, does the patent punter get paid out the higher return for the purposes of this competition? I think I have misunderstood the rules. Am I right in thinking anyone that puts a patent up ends up staking 7 pts in total, and the one posting a treble only stakes 1 pt? If so, then surely everyone should just say they have staked a patent, lucky 15 or canadian etc, if the size of the stake is not accounted for? Ram had 8/1 and 12/1 winners as part of a treble (third was a NR) so although the returns off that treble didnt make it onto the leaderboard, if he had said he had done a patent then he would have easily cleared 100 pts, with the two winning singles, and an extra two winning doubles (comprised of each horse plus the NR)? I probably havent explained myself clearly here but I think what I am trying to ask in a roundabout way, is whether everyones stakes are calculated to the same level to ensure comparisions between person and person can be made in terms of risk vs return. If someone stakes 7 pts on a patent and another punter has the same horses only in a 1 pt treble, the former punter is having 6 extra bites at the cherry to beat the treble guy?

its taken a week for someone to realise but Russ pointed this out to me, why are people are having a treble when thye can have a patent, personally this was designed to accomodate real bets and therefore that was the idea, but i know some will be fantasy bets at times. The 1pt treble was correct as that was his bet? Why would he state a patent when he has punted an ew treble? How can we change the rules to accommodate? Not sure, what options do we have, reduce the unit stake for each bet, if you have a lucky 63, thats 6 horses, s why have a L15 when you can pick 6 horses !!! any ideas lads, no one has found the loophole as yet, and maybe we have to understand that if you place a 1pt Lucky 63, gthe stake has to be reduced to keep a fair advantage

[mowgli77]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return That's what I was trying to ask at the beginning of the thread. There is no set amount for stakes. I mentioned a 1pt or 100pt bet but it's same with 4 selections, do you have a 1pt 4 fold or a 1pt lucky 15 for 15 separate bets? If it's a lucky 15 then surely only the 4 fold counts towards the competition? Other option would be to limit entries to 4 selections or allocate a number of points per bet (15 maximum?). I thought it was the multiple part that counted only? Could get tricky when you also consider placepots. Good input so far, my only concern was people not putting reasoning but that's been ok. Good luck to all.

[twinny]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

Just a quick question, if someone puts up 3 selections in a patent and another punter puts the same selections up in treble, does the patent punter get paid out the higher return for the purposes of this competition? I think I have misunderstood the rules. Am I right in thinking anyone that puts a patent up ends up staking 7 pts in total, and the one posting a treble only stakes 1 pt? If so, then surely everyone should just say they have staked a patent, lucky 15 or canadian etc, if the size of the stake is not accounted for? Ram had 8/1 and 12/1 winners as part of a treble (third was a NR) so although the returns off that treble didnt make it onto the leaderboard, if he had said he had done a patent then he would have easily cleared 100 pts, with the two winning singles, and an extra two winning doubles (comprised of each horse plus the NR)? I probably havent explained myself clearly here but I think what I am trying to ask in a roundabout way, is whether everyones stakes are calculated to the same level to ensure comparisions between person and person can be made in terms of risk vs return. If someone stakes 7 pts on a patent and another punter has the same horses only in a 1 pt treble, the former punter is having 6 extra bites at the cherry to beat the treble guy?

i agree fintron,and also hold my hands up,my 1st 3 or 4 bets on here were either an e\w double(0.5points 2 bets to equal the 1 point i thought we were allowed each day) or an e\w treble to try and hit 1000 points,i noticed others were posting yanks,lucky 15s etc,then it wasnt a level playing field so i did the same,still a good thread though and i will keep posting untill the rules are agreed so everyone gets the same chance,you could even post e/w lucky 63,s:) with 6 25/1 and 33/1 shots and get 63 bites at the cherry

[Trotter]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return This is what I was trying to clarify at post 82 It occured to me that someone really competitive who wanted to win this comp could pick a horse in every race of the day, say 35 races and cover then in 500 trebles (or however many it is)......and with four winners on a day might get 6 trebles up and get to 1000 points. Their stake might have been 500 quid.........but bowles replied that it was the total return from the bet that counted I think it should be related to the stake somehow eg it could be total return divided by number of bets.......so your total return from a yankee would be divided by 11 and return from a trixie would be divided by four and so on......... I think the answer is to have your biggest winning line from any multiple bet count for the competition...........eg if you did a yankee and got 4 winners it would be the 4-fold that counted for the leaderboard and not the 4-fold, plus the six trebles and the four doubles..........if you got 3 winners it would be just the treble that counted. That was all winning lines in the comp would be to the same 1 point stake. .

[twinny]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

i agree fintron' date='and also hold my hands up,my 1st 3 or 4 bets on here were either an e\w double(0.5points 2 bets to equal the 1 point i thought we were allowed each day) or an e\w treble to try and hit 1000 points,i noticed others were posting yanks,lucky 15s etc,then it wasnt a level playing field so i did the same,still a good thread though and i will keep posting untill the rules are agreed so everyone gets the same chance,you could even post e/w lucky 63,s:) with 6 25/1 and 33/1 shots and get 63 bites at the cherry[/quote'] whoops that should be 57 bites as 6 would be singles:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return The fairest way is to proportion the bet over a set stake surely? Allow say a tenner for the bet for example, so if you have a Lucky 15 the unit stake would be 66p, if you had a Lucky 31 it would be 32p, if you had a Patent it would be £1.42. So in effect the idea is to make a grand from a tenner in any way you want?

[kroni]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

The fairest way is to proportion the bet over a set stake surely? Allow say a tenner for the bet for example, so if you have a Lucky 15 the unit stake would be 66p, if you had a Lucky 31 it would be 32p, if you had a Patent it would be £1.42. So in effect the idea is to make a grand from a tenner in any way you want?

Surely that is the fairest way BH, at the start of the competition i thought that was how it was going to be done because people posting a patent would have much higher return for 3 winners than someone with a treble, hence why i posted patents instead of a treble after that.

[andyjkmak]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return Why not restrict it to a number of points per bet and have either only trebles or L15s. eg.. 15 Points Max treble consisting of 3 x 3PT Doubles 1 x 6PT Treble or whatever mix you want using the 15pts L15....Self explanatary using the 15 points 1 per line. The only stipulation would be that all points must be used as a complete unit and not split, ie..no 0.5 point bets. Also win only, surely that is the point, anyone can pick a speculative E/W chance but the whole point of the previous 100/1 challenge was to try and get winners!!! Surely that should be the premise here. So restrict it to Trebles or L15s only to simplify it and use 15Pts as the guide. That makes it a level playing field without having to calculate the intricasies of e/w and partially won bets. Also it would make it simple, you choose either 3 or 4 selections and use the points accordingly.:D

[ELCAKER]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return For today.... 13.55 Fakenham Even though Nicky HEnderson's string are in magnificent form I think there might be a bit of value in opposing the hot favourite Silicium here. The one I like is Good Faloue. Neil King's 6 year old has had 6 . runs over obstacles before and should be able to make her experience tell. SHe finished 3rd in a class 3 on her comeback run earlier in the season and now drops into a class 5. Should make the frame at the very least. 240 Plumpton. Cloudy Wager has a little bit of form in a couple of bumpers last year and after a couple of runs over hurdles this season might be ready to show a little more today. Trainer Anna Newton-Smith has a 16% sr at Plumpton, easily the course at which she has the most winners, and Felix De Giles is also 21% when riding her horses. Was 12's with Stan when I started this write up, now only 8's. Still taking the price. 310 P The HArdy Boy - it might be asking a bit much for a smaller stable to have a quick double, but this horse has won 6 times over CD. Andrew Thornton takes the ride and with conditions not likely to pose any problems I have taken the 8's, not least because if the first wins or runs well, this one will be open a couple of points shorter. Wolverhampton 2.50 Shutterbug - This Stuart Williams trained sprinter is my selection here. Ryan Clarke takes 5 lbs off meaning he is effectively off a mark of 50. Raced over 5 furlongs last time I think the step back upto 6 will benefit his chances. 9/4 with SJ :hope

[andyjkmak]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 3.40 Plumpton Kiltimoney...11/2 Bet365...Loves the mud and his last run was over this C/d, should go close. 2.10 Edes...4/1 Bet365... Down to a decent mark and down in class. Every chance. 4.20 Wolves Better Self...13/2 Bet365...Certainly well handicapped and hopefully will stay,satble in form and claimer means a very low weight. Based on my theory 3 x 3 Pt Doubles 1 x 6 Pt Treble

[cc75]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 2.50 Wolves: Shutterbug Quite taken on with this one. As Monterosso has already said this will not take a lot of winning and with Ryan Clark good for his 5lbs claim this horse looks weighted to win IMO having been knocking on the door from this kind of mark in this kind of grade on last three starts. Trainer/Jockey combo 2 from 3 over last 14 days too. 9/4 1.10 Plumpton: Koup De Kanon Given bumper form ground conditions should pose no problem and thought good enough to compete in a decent Ascot even on hurdles debut in November. No surprise to see this one go close at decent odds in a race that shouldn't take a lot of winning IMO. 11/4 3.20 Wolves: Kames Park Given racing style, has ideal jockey on board (king of the hold up tactic); stable form fairly strong at present and this their only runner today. big chance in competitive looking race. 9/2 4.50 Wolves: Diplomasi Won on handicap debut in October over C&D from 4lbs lower before disappointing next time out over a trip short of ideal. Return to 9f today looks ideal and if stable are ready to go then horse has big chance IMO. 9/2 All prices Bet365 BOG Win lucky 15

[twinny]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return not sure what the stakeing is,if its 15 points we are allowed the 7.5 e/w double,if its to a £10 stake then a 5 point e/w double and if its only 1 point we are allowed then its 0.5 e/w double Double(s) 18 Jan 2011 - 3:00 Southwell - Win Wor Rom @ sp EW @ 1/5 1-3 carrying bottom weight Wor Rom can go well over todays trip @ a decent price,has won over course and distance and can come on from 3rd place last time out 18 Jan 2011 - 5:20 W'Hampton - Win Lytham @ 33/1 EW @ 1/4 1-3 this course and distance winner has had 2 of the other runners behind it in past races,it has won 9 of its 46 starts an exceptional record,a massive price @ 33/1 if it runs anywere near its best form

[andyjkmak]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

not sure what the stakeing is,if its 15 points we are allowed the 7.5 e/w double,if its to a £10 stake then a 5 point e/w double and if its only 1 point we are allowed then its 0.5 e/w double Double(s) 18 Jan 2011 - 3:00 Southwell - Win Wor Rom @ sp EW @ 1/5 1-3 carrying bottom weight Wor Rom can go well over todays trip @ a decent price,has won over course and distance and can come on from 3rd place last time out 18 Jan 2011 - 5:20 W'Hampton - Win Lytham @ 33/1 EW @ 1/4 1-3 this course and distance winner has had 2 of the other runners behind it in past races,it has won 9 of its 46 starts an exceptional record,a massive price @ 33/1 if it runs anywere near its best form

Mine was only an idea Twinny, I have had no feedback yet as to whether or not it is a good idea, I think it works as it simplifies things, but we need concencus. Also, I suggested we make it WIN only using the points as full units to avoid messy E/E calculations etc. Only my opinion...........Feedback!!!!:unsure

[twinny]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

Mine was only an idea Twinny, I have had no feedback yet as to whether or not it is a good idea, I think it works as it simplifies things, but we need concencus. Also, I suggested we make it WIN only using the points as full units to avoid messy E/E calculations etc. Only my opinion...........Feedback!!!!:unsure

i agree with you andy on this,we need a set of rules,i.e points allowed,is a yank 11 bets or 1 etc,i think Billyhills idea of a set amount ie £10 per bet is a good one, that way if you get a return of say £210 on a yank you know you have made 20points(just my thoughts) have to disagree on the e/w bit though:unsure .......Feedback

[andyjkmak]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

i agree with you andy on this' date='we need a set of rules,i.e points allowed,is a yank 11 bets or 1 etc,i think Billyhills idea of a set amount ie £10 per bet is a good one, that way if you get a return of say £210 on a yank you know you have made 20points(just my thoughts) have to disagree on the e/w bit though:unsure .......Feedback[/quote'] Appreciate the feedback mate My reasoning for the E/W is simple, the aim of this is to try and get a big win, that will never ever happen unless every horse on the bet wins, using E/W is fine for BBOTD but on this it isn't really relevant. It is supposed to be similar to the 100/1 challenge and designed to be something a little bit different. E/W would dilute the stakes right down, even if you had 4 E/W placed on a yankee it would pay very little on the place return and wouldn't achieve the sort of 100/1 return we are supposed to be after :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return I haven't contributed to the thread, but like BH's suggestion where 10pts per bet is used for the purposes of this thread. Andy's suggestion was basically the same too, just a different stake total (15pts). With BH's you're having to make 10x your outlay to get on the board, and 100x your outlay to win it - I like round figures like that :) lol Anyway, my first effort - a bet I have placed with Stan James, stake for the purposes of this will be a 66p Lucky 15. I'll need some drifters if I am to reach the 100x outlay, but 4 winners would more than compensate for that £0.40 Lucky15

	Selection	Price
	Pete The Feat	11/4
	Rateable Value	11/4
	Emerald Girl	3/1
	Johnny Hancocks	6/1

Total stake	£6.00
Estimated return	£360.60

3:10 Folkestone - PETE THE FEAT - won 2 of last 3, including here 2 runs back, when having Saddlewood behind. Excuses last time, and being reunited with De Giles can see him resume winning ways. 3:40 Folkestone - RATEABLE VALUE - grand effort lto when pushing Silver Dollars close despite Tizzard losing the reins after the last. Only went down by a neck, and Silver Dollars has franked the form with a win off 4lb higher nto. 3:50 Wolves - EMERALD GIRL - won a Class 4 over this trip at Carlisle last summer, before being outpaced over 6f nto. 6 month break before a decent return over that shorter trip last month under this jockey. That will have blown away any cobwebs, and stepped up to 7f again can do the business. 2:50 Wolves - JONNY HANCOCKS - arrived at this one through looking at some of the interlinked formlines. Weighted to turn the form around with Just For Leo, and confirm with Lady Brookie, on their running behind Liberty Green lto. Also weight to turn around a neck beating by Lady Prodee in November.

[cc75]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return I also like the idea of a mythological set stake whether it be £10 or £15 that the punter can stake on a multi bet as they see fit. My opinion for what it's worth. On to today: 2.20 Wolves: Lewyn Best in at the weights, acts round C&D and on balance known form looks stronger than market rival Sloop John B and can see the race revolving around these two. 2/1 2.50 Wolves: Mr Optimistic Has been given a 6lbs rise in the handicap as a result of penultimate start when winning it's maiden well over C&D. However, there is a formline from that race with today's favourite through the second home Crystallus - strictly at the weights Richard Fahey's Mr Optimistic has every chance of beating Lady Prodee which in my opinion would put this one bang there at the finish. Therefore at 7/2, his horse looks the best value to me. 10/3 Wolves 3.20: Tourist Won from mid-80s this time last year and run in far better quality races than this over last 12 months - plummeted in the weights due to some poor performances means this horse can no contest a 0-75 for the first time since 2009 and really must be given a chance in a wide open contest. 12/1 Wolves 3.50: Catching Zeds Sorely disappointing LTO when running no sort of race on handicap debut but on maiden evidence the horse looks really weighted to win a race, especially if able to run to the form shown over this trip at Kempton on second start in September. Has been nibbled at in the market already today so may be today is the day. 4/1 All prices Bet365 BOG Win Lucky 15

[ELCAKER]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return My L15 for today, bet placed as usual with Stan James. Folkeston e 1340 Bearneen Boy has been well backed. IS weighted to go well, today races off 62, has been as high as 79. Drops in trip which should help, I think the money is significant and a good run is expected. Taking SP 1420 Wolves Llewyn - won 3 times last year, stable had a winner last week and are hopeful of a good run. Taken the 15/8. 1520 wolves Tourist Derek Shaw had a winner last week, and has booked Jimmy Quinn a jockey who has won on the horse twice before. RAcing off 75 today, he won a year ago of 86 and reached a high rating of 92. Taken the 10's. 1530 Southwell KING BENNY One of the best backed horses of the day, it has been running in some much stronger races than this in Ireland, races today off 88 and I think this has been plotted up by connections.

[cc75]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

I also like the idea of a mythological set stake whether it be £10 or £15 that the punter can stake on a multi bet as they see fit. My opinion for what it's worth. On to today: 2.20 Wolves: Lewyn Best in at the weights, acts round C&D and on balance known form looks stronger than market rival Sloop John B and can see the race revolving around these two. 2/1 2.50 Wolves: Mr Optimistic Has been given a 6lbs rise in the handicap as a result of penultimate start when winning it's maiden well over C&D. However, there is a formline from that race with today's favourite through the second home Crystallus - strictly at the weights Richard Fahey's Mr Optimistic has every chance of beating Lady Prodee which in my opinion would put this one bang there at the finish. Therefore at 7/2, his horse looks the best value to me. 10/3 Wolves 3.20: Tourist Won from mid-80s this time last year and run in far better quality races than this over last 12 months - plummeted in the weights due to some poor performances means this horse can no contest a 0-75 for the first time since 2009 and really must be given a chance in a wide open contest. 12/1 Wolves 3.50: Catching Zeds Sorely disappointing LTO when running no sort of race on handicap debut but on maiden evidence the horse looks really weighted to win a race, especially if able to run to the form shown over this trip at Kempton on second start in September. Has been nibbled at in the market already today so may be today is the day. 4/1 All prices Bet365 BOG Win Lucky 15

Price on Lewyn changed to 9/4 as I pushed the post button. I have proof this price was taken.

[fintron]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 1.00 Southwell - Tifoso - recent spin on AW sharpened him up, this much more his trip and placed off mark earlier in season. 4/1 b365 1.30 Southwell - Follow The Sun - found little off the bridle last time when splitting a couple of these but with a well timed run and deliver. 7/1 b365 3.00 Southwell - Lackamon - hosed up last time and has to be considered well treated under a pen before the handicapper has his say. 7/4 b365 3.30 Southwell - Present Your Case - outpaced at Bangor last time but should appreciate this return to further. 6/1 b365 1 pt yankee

[markmywords]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return Good luck with your trebles in your yank fin

[calculus]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return I would agree that there needs to be a cap on the total stake of the bet, otherwise we may aswell all be doing 10 horse multiples... Whether that is 15pts or 10pts doesn't really matter imo... Anyway here's my pot shot for the day... 4.20 Wolverhampton - Belles Beau (7/2 Boyles) Looks to be improving with each run and is stepped up in trip for her handicap debut, which looks likely to suit, stable in decent form. 4.50 Wolverhampton - American Smooth (6/1 Boyles) Didn't look particularly willing last time out but has gone off at quite skinny prices in his two starts to date, albeit dissapointing badly on both occaisons, should improve for the extra distance and should be capable of better. 5.20 Wolverhampton - Irish Jugger (13/2 Boyles) Looks to have improved since taking a low grade classified contest over this course and distance, has run respectably in three starts since and remains on the same mark which may not be beyond him. 2.5pt Trixie (10pts Total)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return Nice one SER :clap Good to see plenty of interest/posts on the thread already. Lots of points of views on the best and fairest way to run the CHALLENGE . My take on it is I think some people are treating/thinking it as a competition it isn't its a challenge to bet/pick in your normal way ie if i picked 4 double digit priced horses i wouldn't have a 1pt win quad, trebs or even 1pt win L15 it would be 0.5 e/w L15 as thats my normal way i bet and thats what i would put on the thread so what you bet normally or would be happy to bet if you did place a bet that is what you put on this thread. Don't agree its all about backing winners place money adds up and its not to be sniffed 4 placed horses can return over 100 pts and Placepots/Jackpots should be allowed as all guys that do bets other than singles on ATR should be able to enter the multiple 2011 Challenge thats only but fair IMO and besides that a placepot at the likes of Cheltenham could easily pay over a 1000pts. Maybe it would be better to not have a prize for the winner to try and take the competition edge out of it. As for the points allowance i give my views earlier in the thread your not going to please every one.

[cc75]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 12.50 Lingfield: Ana Emarati Probably strongest form on offer in this; stable in decent heart; has a recent run under it's belt which main market rivals don't. 10/1 :loon 1.20 Lingfield: I Confess Well weighted for this contest taking into allowance decent apprentice's 7lb claim. Big chance IMO and can run to current mark so should go close. 7/2 1.55 Lingfield: Lady Rosamunde Step up in trip looks wise move; first time visor should help; nothing to choose between this horse and odds on fave on known form so 4/1 looks decent. 4/1 2.30 Lingfield: Efistorm Been running well from this mark; LTO run has solid feel to it with close up 2nd horse going on to win subsequently. Must go close in tight looking handicap. 5/1 All prices Bet365 BOG Win lucky 15

[fintron]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

Good luck with your trebles in your yank fin

Cheers mark. Wasn't to be but at least paid for todays yankee Ana emirati - has benefit of racecourse experience and can use that to good use today over market leaders making their debut 7s sj Lady rosamunde - never put in race by turner last time. Extra furlong should suit 7/2 sj Efistorm - close up to estonia last time. Fave a nr so chances boosted 5s sj Urban code - won well this week and looks well in under pen with improvement expected 7s sj 1 pt yankee

[cc75]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return

Cheers mark. Wasn't to be but at least paid for todays yankee Ana emirati - has benefit of racecourse experience and can use that to good use today over market leaders making their debut 7s sj Lady rosamunde - never put in race by turner last time. Extra furlong should suit 7/2 sj Efistorm - close up to estonia last time. Fave a nr so chances boosted 5s sj Urban code - won well this week and looks well in under pen with improvement expected 7s sj 1 pt yankee

Haha, three out of four the same Wayne - mental! Both posted at the same time too mate - psychic stuff :ok Good luck mate :hope

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 7.00 KEMPTON CALCULATING 28-1 I think Calculating could go very close here .A proven performer over C&D and on polytrack over this distnace,i think at 33-1 it is worth a speculative punt..The favourite Porgy is a classly looking beast looks strong but has never been this far,and i'm going to gamble that it won't stay..Calculating is on a very attractive mark for this Class 4 race. Last year it was running well off this sort of mark winning races at southwell and placing in races class 3 and 4 at wolverhampton..Now returns to kempton after a long break..It's first attempt at kempton was in 2008 over C&D,in a class 2 race which it won..It usually runs it race here,however it is hard to know which horse will turn up,if it shows some of that old form off this mark should go close imo.. Has had its pipe opener in early january at wolves over 17f,and should be primed and ready for good run,especially considering its mark,carries 1 stone less than the favourite.. Confused 8.00 KEMPTON WEST LEAKE 12-1 West Leake is nothing special and gets upped in trip to 7f here,it's first try at the distance...Connections have seen this as a sprinter so it's interesting for this trip extension..I imagine they are hoping the pace wont be great ,i am not sure if there are front runners here but if it is slow West Leake could take adavantage come the last few furlongs.. It has no problem with this track having won here.It won here last year over 6f off a mark of 52,tomorrow it goes off a mark of 51..In fact it won two races in quick succession,both under this rider,and it was staying on both time so i think it will be ok over 7f..In fact L kierney has a decent record on the horse.He has ridden it 5 times and won on his first two attempts on it.. He placed over 5 on his 3rd attempt here at kempton in june last year,but then flopped on turf that month,and laster at kempton in september,although that was after 99 day break,the handicapper may have had it in his grips..However now it is tumbling down the weights i feel Keniry can get a tune out of the beast.. 4.30 KEMPTON SUTTONIA 25-1 This horses is abig big price and may run accordingly but i think this ex McGuiness horses has decent chance if on a going day..This one has been mainly campaigned in ireland as a sprinter,over 5&6f however this step up to mile could be just what it needs to get it's first ever win.. Connections have been gradually stepping in it up in trip,and has put in some ok efforts last few races mainly at lingfield staying on if not a great pace the step up could suit..what i find interesting is that it beat cane cat in it's last race at wolverhampton over 7f this month,yet cane cat is 5-1 and Suttonia is 25-1..?And suttonia is now better weighted from that race.. it also faced up to Pocket full of Rye(5-1) last October and beat it by 2 lengths,it is now better off in the weights counting claimers by 14 pounds and if a repeat performeance of that race,then Suffonia must have big chance,needs a slow pace and lets see.. KEMPTON 6.00 SUHALIAH 14-1 had this the last day in selection,when it hacked up at Lingfield for a class 7 race here in december so im a little suprised to find it all the way down there at 16-1 on the betting chart..The favourite Carter is an ok beast but it's results dont warrant 5-4.. This is a class 7 poor donkey fest,and is punished only 3lb here for that win in december i think this one has a great flat line speed and is running into a bit of from,and could lead pillar to post 0.5pt ew LUCKY 15

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 0.5 E/W Lucky 15 at KEMPTON with SJ double odds only one winner. 4.30 HOLYFIELD WARRIOR 11/1~ Can go well fresh and is on a handy mark. trainers horses hard to predict but does get good priced winners. 5.30 MAZE 18/1~Trainer has yet to hit best form yet but horse starting to show more and is worth following over both codes when he does as for the horse can be moody and yet to show best on all three AW runs but to AW jock booked tonight. 6.00 CRAZY BOLD 28/1~From same trainer in the 5.30. Has had two lack lustre runs over hurdles but back on the AW has a squeak has won on in over 9f in Germany on it. 7.00 CALCULATING 25/1~Agree with TBR that it is overpriced on best form interesting Dan O'neill takes over on top.