Bench-Marking

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, I think this is turning into a bit of an obsession, this system malarky! I haven't put a bet on in weeks, having dedicated so much time to learning how statistical betting works! And as masochistic as this is, I've actually enjoyed the headache! So, for my next thread (and I do apologise if I am flooding the forum here but I'm enjoying the chat!) I thought I would take a few steps back to go a step forward. I keep thinking that the systems I have looked at are giving good results, but in truth I have no idea if they are or not as I don't have a bench-mark to compare it against. I therefore thought I would prepapre some analysis that gives me an idea of what % of success I would have from the following: Back Home Back Draw Back Away Lay Home Lay Draw Lay Away If I can get a % of success from each of these measures (across several seasons and divisions) it should give me an idea of how good any future system is. For example, if the bench-mark for backing the home team is 50%, and I develop a system that is 45%, then I know I would have a better chance of success by simply betting blind. Now I know that there are many other factors to take into consideration such as value odds and so forth but I thought this might be a good place to start. What do you all think? Andy

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Bench-Marking I can only offer something that virtually states the obvious. In most leagues the ratios seem to be around 47% home win, 28% draw, 25% away win. The draw percentage seems to vary a bit based on overall number of goals scored - more goals, less draws. We could all just take United, Chelsea and Arsenal games in order to get more than 47% correct, but, to reiterate something from another of your threads, the odds are so useless that you are almost bound not to profit.