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Tennis - 9-16 January

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gavanski

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Robredo to beat Belluci @1,9, local I really don't understand why are odds so high on Robredo. Belluci had tough match last night and I believe that Robredo is far better player than Russell. Beside that, it seems to me that Brasilian is far better player on clay surfaces than on hard. I have very strong feeling that Tommy won't have any problem in beating him tonight. Goodluck

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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

I think there is money to made from WTA. I can't do it' date=' my base knowledge isn't good enough, but there are plenty that can. I don't know what the secret is to it though as you have to factor in the inconsistencies - women often go missing for huge periods of times in matches. I suppose it's about knowing your player. You get good days and bad days though, just got to move on and learn from it.[/quote'] The main thing I learned from betting on the WTA is the fact that 1.40 favorite in women's tennis is nowhere near 1.40 favorite in men's tennis. If your Simon/Bellucci double had an WTA equivalent, you would be crazy to put money on it.
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fishy25

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

The main thing I learned from betting on the WTA is the fact that 1.40 favorite in women's tennis is nowhere near 1.40 favorite in men's tennis. If your Simon/Bellucci double had an WTA equivalent' date=' you would be crazy to put money on it.[/quote'] Although I wouldn't back a favourite at less than 1.50 anyway, you'd be crazy to back a women at less than 1.6 in my opinion unless it's Serena at Wimbledon in the early rounds or the same for Clijsters, but obviously there would be barely any profit in that.
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Atko

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

The main thing I learned from betting on the WTA is the fact that 1.40 favorite in women's tennis is nowhere near 1.40 favorite in men's tennis. If your Simon/Bellucci double had an WTA equivalent' date= you would be crazy to put money on it.
Exactly. And that's why I'd never do it!
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Psycho

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -3 AH vs Chris Guccione. 1.80 @ Pinnacle (7/10) VOID Kim Clijsters vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. Under 17 games. 1.80 @ Nordicbet (6/10) VOID Victoria Azarenka -3 AH vs Shahar Peer. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) WIN Virginie Razzano +5.5 AH vs Na Li. 1.97 @ Pinnacle (5/10) WIN Bojana Jovanovski to beat Aravane Rezai. 2.40 @ Nordicbet (4/10) WIN The best day of the year thus far! :ok

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Atko

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

Slow down guys' date=' WTA is cool! :rollin[/quote'] Got to admit, I enjoy watching it more than I did a year ago. However, I'd never bet on it unless following you guys :tongue2 Edit: Good work on the bets yesterday :ok
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CzechPunter

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January 5 for me today. No handicaps, just outrights :tongue2 10pts (7/10) A.Clement to bt. A. Mannarino @ 2.13 at Pinnacle I cannot understand why Mannarino is the favorite. Clement beat him three times already and is the better player for sure. The only reason for backing Mannarino is the fact he beat Monaco. However, Monaco beat himself on that occassion. Very weak second serve, missing easy shots, not pushing Mannarino at all. Clement will not make the same mistakes. 10pts (7/10) T.Robredo to bt. T.Bellucci @ 1.90 at Pinnacle Robredo is the better player on hard court in my opinion. Once he got after the slow start in the first match, he dominated against his young opponent. Bellucci, on the other hand, would be out of the tournament if Russell was a solid play. He looked tired and made far too many mistakes. The odds are good enough for me to play. 10pts (6/10) J.M.Del Potro to bt. F.Mayer @ 1.72 at Pinnacle The price went up and that is what I wanted. Del Potro won a tough match against Lopez, but I think that he will not have as many problems against Mayer. The fact is, Lopez is tricky at the net and it is hard to beat him if your passing shots go missing. Mayer is more of a baseliner - and Del Potro will love that. He has more power and accuracy from the baseline than Mayer and that is what will count. 10pts (6/10) P.Starace to bt. L.Kubot @ 1.87 at Pinnacle None of the two players likes hard courts too much, but Starace looked better so far than Kubot. He has a 2-0 record against him and I think he can beat him again. He has more variety in his game than Kubot, who can go missing big on occassions. His powerful shots are not clicking often enough 10pts (6/10) S.Kuznetsova to bt. N.Li @ 1.75 at Pinnacle Kuznetsova leads the h2h 6-3, winning quite often on hard courts. She beat Stosur in the first round, while Na Li struggled against Razzano, who is a level below Kuznetsova. It would be a solid upset for me if Kuznetsova lost this, she is the better player in my opinion, especially on hard courts. The odds will go down in my opinion.

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IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

Jovanovski +3.5 games over Rezai @ 2.00 (Pinnacle:3pts) This is worth a go. Jovanovski beat Rezai last year in Cincinnatti in 3 sets and she is an improving player. She has already won 4 matches here at Sydney including beating Cirstea in final qualifying in 2(granted Cirstea in a bit of a hole) and beating Kanepi 6-4 6-4 last night in the main draw...Kanepi's first match of the year but still a good win overall. Rezai beat Jankovic(on a terrible losing run) last night, hitting some huge shots but also shaky on serve hitting 11 double faults. She is notoriously flaky and her ball bashing style means she can lose to anyone and have dips in matches. I think Jovanovski can be competitive in this one and I think this bet is value. GL!
WIN.........Jovanovski won 7-6 7-6.Have to love Rezai, some player.
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Psycho

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January 1) Sydney. Juan Martin Del Potro -2 AH vs Florian Mayer. 1.90 @ Pinnacle (7/10) This could go again to tie-breaks like it was in Del Potro's last match against Lopez. Mayer for me is a bit more vulnerable on serve and Potro should be able to get more looks for breaks. Potro said after that match that he's worked very hard and is ready for long matches so hope is not talking thrash here. Anyway not that much confident about Potro but have to admit that can not resist this price, so having a go at it. 2) Auckland. Arnaud Clement to beat Adrian Mannarino. 2.17 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Mannarino being made a favorite here is a joke. He has not played much tennis in ATP main draw events and basically is all about serve. Clement is a losing finalist (lost to Isner) from last year so there are lots of points to defend for him and motivation will be the way it should be. Clement leads H2H 2-0 both matches being played in 2009. 3) Auckland. Tommy Robredo vs Thomaz Bellucci. 1.94 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Fancy Robredo here for couple reasons, he's better player on hard courts and Bellucci was very poor yesterday against Russell. The American player was rubbish and basically handed the match on a plate to Bellucci who couldn't close it out in straight sets having served for the match @ 5-4 in the 2nd set and then came back from 0-3 double break down in the deciding set. Should be a close one, but Robredo should get a win here. 4) Sydney. Igor Andreev to beat Ernests Gulbis. 2.75 @ Pinnacle (5/10) The price is not what it was at the start but I still see value in this one. There are couple key factors that are in favour of the Russian player. Andreev has got massive motivation to win matches now and improve his rangking so he has not to play qualifying matches in tournaments like this and Masters as well. He dropped outside Top 100 last year and is getting back where he was couple years ago. As for Gulbis, this will be nothing more than a practice match for him. He normally doesn't play in the week right before Grand Slams as he's a lazy person and player as well. He changed his schedule this season but still I'm not convinced that he'll be 100% up for this one. Besides Andreev has beaten him both times they played and this will be a morning match, local time 11 AM. Gulbis hates to play early matches and is performing better in afternoon or evening time. So having all the facts, Andreev should be good for a W!

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nkdz

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Robredo @ 1.93 Pinnacle (8 units) Bellucci was quite poor yesterday despite winning Russell. True he managed to get back to life after being 2 breaks down in third set but in general that was poor performance against poor Russell. Robredo havent been to convincing beating Venus but he has more weapons than the brasilian and i hardly see a surprise here. Bookies set this as a 50-50 match which is wrong IMO, Robredo should be rated at 1.60. Almagro -2 @ 1.90 Pinnacle (8 units) Almagro is much tougher matchup for the romanian than Kevin Anderson. I had a bet on suoth african yesterday and got disspaointed by his level of tennis. The way i saw him, he's just a bad version of karlovic with less deadlier serve. Poor shots from the baseline, poor movement... Hanescu won a close match and it could affect his fitness a bit. Almagro's forehand and movement around the court will cause Hanescu a lots of problems and i cant see him taking a set here. Have to back Almago at this line. Giraldo -1.5 @ 1.86 Pinnacle (6 units) Although Montanes defends semifinals from 2010 here i doubt he can defeat Giraldo who raised his form and looks like a better choice on hardcourts, despite improvement Montanes made on this surface last year. Giraldo will probably win this one as he is fitter and has more weapons. Clement @ 2.13 Pinnacle (10 units) Couldnt believe my eyes when i saw this price on Clement. French veteran might be a bit tired since last night but Mannarino is not the type of player who can be a favourite against Clement. I think bookies and public overrated his yesterdays win over Monaco wh was terrible and we have a decent value in Arnaud now. Think this is worth of high stakes. Gulbis -3 @ 1.92 Pinnacle (8 units) Cant thrust Andreev at all, especially on hardcourts. Latvian played well in Doha, think he might be catching his form before AO and when he plays at his best he can beat anyone. Andreev defeated poor Chardy round before but i wouldnt take that too much into consideration. If there will be no surprises Gulbis will win in 2. Over 23 in Del Potro - Mayer @ 2.03 Pinnacle (10 units) This is my bet of the day. Del Potro still needs to regain match fitness to get back to his old form and i see this as a good preparation for AO. Mayer is not an easy matchup for him as he's not a big hitter and he can make Del Potro doing many UE's. One thing which still looks ok for JMDP is his serve and i expect this to go to at least one TB, and very likely to a long and exhausting battle.

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Atko

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Final one for me. Starace price hammered in already, pretty unbackable now. - Philipp Kohlschreiber (vs Marcel Granollers) x John Isner (vs Robin Haase) @ 1.97 with Stan James (4/10) Been mulling this one over for a wee while and decided to bite. Not sure about either on a handicap but fancy them to get the job done. Kohlschreiber can be inconsistent and can flit in and out of games (see the match against Berlocq) but he's the more talented player and is more comfortable in these conditions. Granollers has ability but doesn't often beat higher ranked players and has mental fragility, especially in clutch moments. Does his best work on clay, so have to fancy the German. Isner lost to Haase last year in Basel but Isner was a wreck after Wimbledon anyway, and really struggled for focus. This is his first match outdoors this year (he was at the Hopman Cup) but he's in a better position than Haase. The Dutchman was verging on the heroic today against Cuevas but his energy reserves must be low. He's played so much tennis recently and had to travel too. He's spent. This could easily be a serve fest and tie-breaks look likely, but Isner has an iron will in these and probably has the extra juice to push him over the line. As the defending champion, he's got ranking points to defend and price too. Won't be easy but I can see the American prevailing. A lot of tough matches, IMO, tomorrow - not so sure on the likes of Almagro (normally poor on anything but clay), Robredo (as bad as Bellucci in terms of inconsistency), Giraldo and even Clement. Let's hope for profit again though - it's been a great start by a lot of people this season. More winners = more cash = :) :hope

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nkdz

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Agree with Kohlschreiber i also have him on double with one NBA bet. Didnt wanted to take him to cover the line cause it might easily go to third set but even if he does, like you said, Granollers is a choker against higher ranked players, seen that million times before. Would like to see some toughts about Cibulkova tb Kleybanova. She was almost perfect last night vs Wozniacki and rund before that vs Kirilenko. Think its worth of a small punt beut havent watch Kleybanova for some time... Anyway good luck to all.

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Atko

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

I'd rather chop my fingers off than back that sewer rat Tommy Robredo tbh.Maybe this is a good spot though as Bellucci has done little on hard....struggling against Russell is tragic even though he's a scrapper at times.
Come on IAG, don't hide your emotions on Robredo, tell us how you really feel ;)
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Atko

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Thought I'd had my fill for matches tonight, but a late market has spurred me into action... - Andreas Seppi +3 games AH (vs Richard Gasquet) @ 2.16 with Pinnacle (4/10) I'm not normally a Seppi backer but think this is a pretty ridiculous offer for the Italian here. Gasquet is living on name only. The Frenchman is nowhere near the player he once was and has too many mental breakdowns. The latest was in Chennai last week against Phau - leading 6-1 5-3, he lost the match 1-6 7-6 7-6. And that's against Phau, who is a really average player. He wasn't particularly convincing yesterday in a late night match against Ebden, while Seppi was astonishing against Istomin. He battered the Uzbek 6-1 6-0. Doesn't matter what state of mind Istomin was in, that's a good result. Seppi is a talented boy, there's no doubt about it, but quite often he loses his focus, especially against weaker player. I don't really see that happening here. He's confident after that aforementioned win and knows that, despite Gasquet's mental foibles, he needs to be on his game. Gasquet leads the H2H 2-1 but all matches have been on clay, Gasquet's best surface by far. Seppi can play on a slow hard court, and took a set off the Frenchman last year He's more than capable of taking something off Gasquet here, and the +3 handicap looks tasty at very nice odds. :hope

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fishy25

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January Horrible for me yesterday, glad to see others doing well though. Gone for 5 today, 2 of which are WTA (God help me) Juan Ignacio Chela vs Viktor Troicki- Troicki -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Really good win for Chela yesterday against Stepanek but doubt he can repeat this result over a Serb who is very much in form. Chela very much a clay courter who doesn't play alot on the hard courts, but when he does he isn't the kind of guy who will set the court alight for long periods. Troicki ended last season well, picking up victories over good players like Baghdatis, Tsonga and Llodra. Made it to the quarters last week in Doha before falling to Federer which given the way Roger's playing at the minute was always likely to happen. Will be his first match since then as he got a bye into the second round. Chela played a 3 setter and also played doubles so the Serb will be the fresher of the two. Guessing Chela is just getting some match practice before the US open before heading off to play on the clay. If Troicki plays how he did last week, I'd fancy him to beat Chela. Marion Bartoli vs Elena Vesnina- Bartoli -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Must be crazy for still taking some of the women on but Bartoli impressed me in her thrashing of Safina in the first round. Only dropped one game in the match and it wasn't even due to Safina playing badly or conceding double fault after double fault. Bartoli played some really good tennis when involved in the rallies. Even with the rain breaks, she was still flowing and playing tidy tennis throughout. Granted her serve wasn't as good as it could be, but her groundstrokes were extremely impressive. Vesnina also won easily in the previous round, but this will be a big step up for her. Although she only dropped 3 games, she was still broken twice and like her partner in crime Zvonareva, double faults can seep into her game and become very frequent. 2-2 is the H2H with Bartoli winning the last two, very comfortably on the hard court. Albert Montanes vs Santiago Giraldo- Giraldo -1.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Favouring the Colombian here for a few reasons. Firstly Montanes hasn't played at all this season thus far and to be honest he didn't end the season to well. His results on the hard surface weren't anything special either, can't really remember him beating anyone of great note. A bit like Chela really. spends alot of time on the clay and can't see Montanes really troubling Giraldo due to his lack of match practice and the surface. Giraldo has had a good week or so, beating Simon and Becker, and giving Anderson a good match. He had no trouble in beating Gimeno-Traver so he should be playing with some confidence and should do a job on Montanes later on. Adrian Mannarino vs Arnaud Clement- Clement +1.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Few people already spoke about this one and agree with what they've said. Mannarino very much a challenger player who got through against Monaco who beat himself in truth. Was going to take the veteran outright but decided to have a little caution just in case he loses a tight 3 setter which he sometimes can do. Had a shocker end to the season but he should in truth be a class above te young Frenchman. Bojana Jovanovski vs Flavia Pennetta- Penetta -4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) And if I was crazy to take one women's match, must be an absoulte idiot for taking a second lol. However, Pennetta did get past Zvonareva in straights and Jovanovski edged past Rezai who shall we say is an indifferent player at the best of times. Although Zvonareva had a ton of double faults, it's still no easy job to beat her at the minute. Pennetta is still trying to regain her full fitness after injury at the back end of last year and that win should give her a big confidence boost. Jovanovski is in a good patch of form in truth but Pennetta will be another step up for her and I can't see how the Italian won't take this one with general ease.

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red_impact

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Re: Tennis - 9-16 January

Gilles Simon v Yen-Hsun Lu Lu 2.50 Pending but looks like Simon wins Andreas Seppi v Denis Istomin Seppi 2.25 WIN Arnaud Clement v Xavier Malisse Clement 2.25 bet365 WIN Decent price on the veteran here. Michael Venus v Tommy Robredo Over 19.5 games 2.10 bet365 WIN Victor Hanescu v Kevin Anderson Andersson 2-0 2.37 bet365 LOSS
More like great price on Clement since he was made a big favourite later. I think I better stop overrating Andersson so I don't get him wrong because of it.
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