WELSH GRAND NATIONAL Saturday 8th January 2011

[Primevil]

Thought i would start this thread off as it is now No runner No Bet. Silver by Nature tops the weights off 156. The one for me has to be Summery Justice. 12/1 in most places, plus a bit of 14/1 about(which is impossible to get). This horse has been laid out for this race, and i'm suspecting the stable were over the moon that the race has been delayed by almost two weeks, as they are hitting form right now. His last run was awesome with the form being franked all over the place since this run. Being by Rosselier will love the mud, and stays all day, with a great leap in him. For me he has to run a big race. £200 e/way at 12/1. Bet placed.:hope Lets hear your selections, for this great handicap chase. :D

[ganjaman]

Re: WELSH GRAND NATIONAL Saturday 8th January 2011 some-stats 9 of the last 13 winners had won at chepstow --easy to understand why prestbury park form is so influential in all the big races at cheltenham but this is an astonishing statistic given the general standard of racing at chepstow,the reason is clear,however as nowhere quite resembles the welsh venue in mid winter and the horses for courses adage certainly rings true not all horses take to the place when conditions are really taxing and course form is the best way to identifying the right type all bar one of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st,big weights on bad ground spell danger at chepstow and those towards the top end of the handicap are allways up against it sinse 1990 only classy campaigners halcon-genelardis[11st 3lb] master oats [11-6] and carvills house [11-12] have defied more than 11st --a light weight is a massive bonus and even those out of the handicap should be considered ,though every winner in the last ten yrs was rated at least 125. not one of the lastten winners had raced more than twice earlier in the season given the demands of race,it pays to be fresh and fit from an hard battle however a prep run of some description is essential as no horse has won this first time out in more than 30yrs and the last ten winners had all finished 5th or better the time before riverside boy is the only winner aged in double figures in the last 25yrs ,so give the veterans a swerve ,the selection simply has to be aged between seven and nine with the younger age always worth a second look 3 wins in the last decade is not overly eye catching ,but they dominated in the 1980s with no less than 8 victories aintree should be in the back of your minds as the race un folds this is a good guide to the big one next april with national heros corbiere,west tip,rhyme and reason,party politics ,earth summit,bindaree,silver birch and mon mome running at chepstow