Tennis - 1-9 January

[Atko]

It's back :ok A heap of tournaments to kick us off. The men are in Brisbane (outdoor hard), Chennai (outdoor hard) and Doha (outdoor hard), while the women rock up in Brisbane too and Auckland (outdoor hard). There's also the mixed event of the Hopman Cup, played Down Under on an indoor hard court. Good luck for the week ahead :ok

[footymac]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January J.Henin A.Molik Molik 6+ 1.893 Pinnacle 7/10 Belgian tennis star Justine Henin will be making a return to the game after suffering an elbow injury, and although she is higher category player than her opponent, i believe that Molik can cover this +. Henin says that she spent two hours daily on rehabilitation, after practising, and admit she is not 100% ready. I believe she is going to play this tournament only to see how will his elbow react, to know what she could do on Australian open which comes soon. h2h says 5:0 for Henin, but last time when henin won their match by more than 6 gem was in 2003. I m pretty convinced that it not gonna be very easy victory for Justine. :hope

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

It's back :ok A heap of tournaments to kick us off. The men are in Brisbane (outdoor hard), Chennai (outdoor hard) and Doha (outdoor hard), while the women rock up in Brisbane too and Auckland (outdoor hard). There's also the mixed event of the Hopman Cup, played Down Under on an indoor hard court. Good luck for the week ahead :ok

Atko, this is only my second year taking tennis seriously betting wise. So just wondering from a Vet like yourself how things work at the start of the season. Is it a complete clean slate, do players carry on where they left off, or is it as unpredictable as ever? I'm talking more the lower ranked players that in years past I never paid much attention to. Cheers :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Atko, this is only my second year taking tennis seriously betting wise. So just wondering from a Vet like yourself how things work at the start of the season. Is it a complete clean slate, do players carry on where they left off, or is it as unpredictable as ever? I'm talking more the lower ranked players that in years past I never paid much attention to. Cheers :ok

It's a tough one. Form from last year obviously does count but I tend to look at the surfaces, conditions, H2H records more than ever at the beginning. Being conservative before the Australian Open is what I'd advise, as there is an element of unpredictability involved.

[footymac]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

J.Henin A.Molik Molik 6+ 1.893 Pinnacle 7/10 Belgian tennis star Justine Henin will be making a return to the game after suffering an elbow injury, and although she is higher category player than her opponent, i believe that Molik can cover this +. Henin says that she spent two hours daily on rehabilitation, after practising, and admit she is not 100% ready. I believe she is going to play this tournament only to see how will his elbow react, to know what she could do on Australian open which comes soon. h2h says 5:0 for Henin, but last time when henin won their match by more than 6 gem was in 2003. I m pretty convinced that it not gonna be very easy victory for Justine. :hope

6:4 6:4 win :D

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January ATP - Brisbane Thiemo De Bakker v Denis Istomin Istomin 1.90 02 Jan 08:00 This is so obvious who's gonna win. De Bakker is an extremely error-prone hardcourt player seeing how many errors (over 50) he made in the last match I saw him vs Santiago Giraldo. It was a match where I picked Giraldo to win 2-1 as he did after De bakker made an enormous amount of errors through the match. Istomin is extremely safe on hardcourts making very few errors having a high confidence in his game. De bakker rather plays on clay and Istomin rather plays on hard where he is quite successfull to. Istomin in straight sets.

[READ31]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Hi guys, first post here for me but a big fan of tennis and haven't done to bad this past year, long may it continue for us all 2011! Completely agree on the Istomin tip, for the exact reasons as above, currently at a good 2.13 on betfair so 10/10 stakes. Istomin has To be favored here far more consistent so can't understand how he's not fav. Nothing else really the big guns are far to short, however I do think Lopez will dispatch petzchner, he was simply awful at the 02 and is only back from injury very rusty, but never know which Lopez turns up.... GL

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January First of all, best of luck to everyone here i 2011 :hope:hope:hope. I think the Istomin/De Bakker match is priced accordingly - no value anywhere in my opinion. Was considering overs in that match though, the surface looks quick enough and both players know how to serve. Decided against it in the end though. On the other hand, I think Petzschner is worth a rather small punt. 4pts Philipp Petzschner to bt. Feliciano Lopez @ 2.62 at Victor Chandler First matches in the new season. Both players were rather poor last year - Petzschner was out for a long time at the end of the season, while Lopez was playing rather poorly. I think 2.62 offers slight value on the German though. He has shown some signs of recovery in the ATP Finals, where he was playing doubles. He has also beaten Lopez already, so he knows how to play against him. With the players in no form whatsoever, I like the chances of an upset here.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

First of all, best of luck to everyone here i 2011 :hope:hope:hope. I think the Istomin/De Bakker match is priced accordingly - no value anywhere in my opinion. Was considering overs in that match though, the surface looks quick enough and both players know how to serve. Decided against it in the end though. On the other hand, I think Petzschner is worth a rather small punt. 4pts Philipp Petzschner to bt. Feliciano Lopez @ 2.62 at Victor Chandler First matches in the new season. Both players were rather poor last year - Petzschner was out for a long time at the end of the season, while Lopez was playing rather poorly. I think 2.62 offers slight value on the German though. He has shown some signs of recovery in the ATP Finals, where he was playing doubles. He has also beaten Lopez already, so he knows how to play against him. With the players in no form whatsoever, I like the chances of an upset here.

Any idea why Betfred have suspended betting on this match? It doesn't start till 3:30 does it?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Any idea why Betfred have suspended betting on this match? It doesn't start till 3:30 does it?

Don't have a clue why they suspended it, but the odds on Petzschner have fallen a little bit.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Hi guys, first post here for me but a big fan of tennis and haven't done to bad this past year, long may it continue for us all 2011! Completely agree on the Istomin tip, for the exact reasons as above, currently at a good 2.13 on betfair so 10/10 stakes. Istomin has To be favored here far more consistent so can't understand how he's not fav. Nothing else really the big guns are far to short, however I do think Lopez will dispatch petzchner, he was simply awful at the 02 and is only back from injury very rusty, but never know which Lopez turns up.... GL

ATP - Brisbane Thiemo De Bakker v Denis Istomin Istomin 1.90 02 Jan 08:00 This is so obvious who's gonna win. De Bakker is an extremely error-prone hardcourt player seeing how many errors (over 50) he made in the last match I saw him vs Santiago Giraldo. It was a match where I picked Giraldo to win 2-1 as he did after De bakker made an enormous amount of errors through the match. Istomin is extremely safe on hardcourts making very few errors having a high confidence in his game. De bakker rather plays on clay and Istomin rather plays on hard where he is quite successfull to. Istomin in straight sets.

Good shouts on Istomin chaps :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January A little bit unlucky with that one. 4pts Golubev/Shvedova to bt. Djokovic/Ivanovic @ 3.75 at Bet365 If Djokovic wins his tie, the Serbian duo might well be out of concentration. On the other hand, the other pair will want to get at least a point out of the tie, so the odds are definitely worth trying for small stakes. Also, Golubev has played some doubles with Shvedova already, so they may even be better in that department. The price is just too high if you consider all the facts.

[READ31]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Just a quick note, in Australia live innplay betting is illegal so I'm assuming that's why's it's suspended, so need to pick your man and stick! Kinda sucks though but that's what I reckon it is mate...

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Here are my outright selections for this week. Can't choose between Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer in Doha, so will leave that one alone. - Brisbane outright - Robin Soderling @ 2.75 with Stan James (1/10) I think it's hard to see past the Swede here. One can make the argument that he doesn't really hit form Down Under but he's got plenty of motivation here. New coach, the chance to get into the Top 4 ahead of the Australian Open. My predicted route for him isn't particularly taxing. Istomin in the quarters and perhaps Stepanek in the semis are winnable matches for him. Roddick is probably a likely final opponent but I'd fancy the Swede against the American away from the US. He is the class player in this field and I reckon he's good for the title here. - Chennai outright - Stanislas Wawrinka @ 5.00 EW with Stan James (1/10) Chennai is a bit of a strange tournament. Berdych, Cilic and Wawrinka are the only players of reall quality involved so I suspect it'll be between these three. Cilic is going for a hat-trick of wins here but I feel he's regressed in the past 12 months. He is difficult to back considering his wretched form last year and the fact that his coach said it'll take another year to get him back up to speed. He's got a horror draw - he may well fall to Nishikori in R1 - so I think the winner will come from the top half, where Berdych and Wawrinka lie in wait. The Swiss looks a good bet to me. He's got an easier route to the semis - probably Bopanna, Devvarman, Haase - and considering these two's contrasting form at the tail end of last year, I'd quite fancy Wawrinka to take out Berdych on a slower hard court. 5.00 each way seems generous so I'll take that. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January First couple of days are always tricky for betting in the first week. Small stakes are probably advisable. I've taken a few bets so far and will probably hit more as more markets become available. - Radek Stepanek vs Tobias Kamke - Radek Stepanek -3.5 games AH @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (3/10) I'm going on the assumption that Stepanek is going to be back to somewhere near his best now that he has recovered his fitness. The Czech spent a large part of last year on the treatment table and only really approached his best tennis at the tail end of the season. He'll come into Brisbane a hungry, healthy player and I feel he'll be a little bit too strong for Kamke. Stepanek enjoys playing in Brisbane - he's won the event before and has made the final last year, so as a result has plenty of ranking points to defend. His serve and volley style will get him plenty of cheap points against a relatively average returner in Kamke, who himself isn't wholly dominant on serve. Kamke had a breakthrough year in 2010 but still has plenty to work on if he's to beat guys inside the top 50. I think Stepanek will have too much for him and is perfectly capable of covering a 3.5 game handicap. - Kevin Anderson vs Marcel Granollers - Kevin Anderson -2 games AH @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (3/10) This will probably turn into a serve-fest and I reckon Anderson will have the edge over Granollers. The South African has made vast improvements to his game. He obviously has the huge serve but he is now comfortable from the back of the court and can add a bit more variation to his game. Granollers is a bit of a strange one. He threatens to let the quality that he undoubtedly possesses come to the surface but too often his serve goes awry and his groundstrokes and tactics become loose. He can go four service games without dropping a point and then completely lose focus when it matters. His inconsistency on a court that isn't his favoured surface could be his undoing here. He'll find it hard to break Anderson - his return game is not his best - and I feel he'll come up a little short. Anderson to cover the line. - Alejandro Falla vs Rui Machado - Alejandro Falla -1.5 games AH @ 1.87 with Pinnacle (3/10) I've got to favour Falla here, especially on a quick hard court. My guess is that Machado is here because he's in the Top 100 and wants to cling on to a direct entry to the Australian Open. The Portuguese is a clay court player and has limited experience on a hard court, especially a quick one. Falla isn't a world beater but he won't have to be here. He's got the game to suss out a clay courter on the plexipave of Chennai. He has a greater variety of shots and will enjoy the conditions far more. I'm surprised to see the handicap as low as -1.5 games as I feel he is more than capable of progressing in this one. Machado's record against lefties on the Tour isn't great either, and I fancy him to fall short here. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Ah, only seen the thread today. Was also on Istomin, the odds were the wrong way round there IMO.I like Atko's bets and I'll take Falla outright in that one, you'd expect the handicap to come in aswell if he wins anyway but 1.741 seems a good price to me. ATP Chennai: Falla to beat Machado @ 1.741 (Pinnacle:4pts) Not a big fan of Falla I have to say, can be really poor at times(see his end of year results) but also occasionally produces very tough displays. Anyway, I think he's a level above Machado on a fast surface, definitely has more experience on hard court and has beaten some good players over the years.Machado was making some noises in clay court challengers at the end of last year but very limited experience on hard...12-15 record....and I think he'll come unstuck against Falla here. ATP Brisbane: Stepanek(to bt Kamke) x WTA Auckland: Georges(to bt Medina-Garrigues) Double @ 2.146 (Pinnacle:2pts) Stepanek seems logical here.....great record in Brisbane(9-1 winning in 09 and runner-up last year) so you would hope he is here to play and defend points. He had an injury plagued year in 2010 but there were definite improvements in the second half of the year.Kamke is a player who made good strides last year...solid on the ground but I think he seems to have alot of troubles on serve...Stepanek is crafty and experienced and I think he'll come through here. Will double that up with my girl Julia Georges to beat Medina, who is quite a solid player but has no real weapons. Georges is still a bit raw, sometimes inconsistent but she had a cracking year last year winning 2 titles. She's got a big game....really good forehand and I do think this match is on her racquet....unless she makes tonnes of errors I think she'll take this one. GL!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

First of all, best of luck to everyone here i 2011 :hope:hope:hope. I think the Istomin/De Bakker match is priced accordingly - no value anywhere in my opinion. Was considering overs in that match though, the surface looks quick enough and both players know how to serve. Decided against it in the end though. On the other hand, I think Petzschner is worth a rather small punt. 4pts Philipp Petzschner to bt. Feliciano Lopez @ 2.62 at Victor Chandler First matches in the new season. Both players were rather poor last year - Petzschner was out for a long time at the end of the season, while Lopez was playing rather poorly. I think 2.62 offers slight value on the German though. He has shown some signs of recovery in the ATP Finals, where he was playing doubles. He has also beaten Lopez already, so he knows how to play against him. With the players in no form whatsoever, I like the chances of an upset here.

Istomin was a good bet. Pure value so how you did'nt see any value anywhere I don't know.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Yep Istomin should have been 1.80, not De Bakker.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Istomin was a good bet. Pure value so how you did'nt see any value anywhere I don't know.

Looking back it probably was. I was worried though, De Bakker is the more talented player in my opinion and has supposedly worked a lot during the off-season. Obviously, Istomin is better on hard courts than him, but with this being the first match, I was a little bit afraid. It certainly wasn't a clear cut victory either - the tie-break was close and could have gone either way. Obviously a big grats to all of you who picked Istomin :clap:clap:clap.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January One early bet in Doha before the handicaps come out. - Rainer Schuettler vs Teimuraz Gabashvili - Rainer Schuettler @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (3/10) I'm expecting a rollercoaster ride with this one but I fancy Schuettler to take down the hugely erratic Gabashvili here. The Russian clearly has talent but he very rarely brings it to the table. He is mentally unstable and an opponent like Schuettler is going to drive him nuts. The German may be 35-year-old but he's actually very quick and fit. He's also canny, loves mixing up the play and Gabashvili won't like the lack of rhythm in this match. Schuettler beat him on a hard court quite comfortably last year and things haven't changed dramatically since then. Fancy the veteran German to take this. Good value on the price as it is much shorter at some bookies. :hope

[READ31]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Atko just a quick question, when you say for example bet strength of 3/10 what does that equate to on monster terms? How does this strengths system work ie, how much is 10/10? Thanks and sorry for the silly Q!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Atko just a quick question' date=' when you say for example bet strength of 3/10 what does that equate to on monster terms? How does this strengths system work ie, how much is 10/10? Thanks and sorry for the silly Q![/quote'] Not a silly question at all mate. 10/10 would be my highest stake, which I very rarely use but have done so. 3/10 is a fairly conservative bet - I have a scale that I use for betting and each rating equates to an amount of cash. I'm always pretty wary at the start of the year for tennis because there's not much to go in terms of form. For example, I think I'd have taken Stepanek on the minus with a higher bet (say 5/10, 6/10) had this been even three or four weeks into the season. One has to be careful early on, however. The rating is (a) a show of confidence towards the bet and (b) a show of stake strength. As far as the antepost selections go, I never put a lot of cash on a predicted winner. Too much can happen during the week to put down serious cash, but I often find a little nest egg can be won if you get the right man. Anyway, I hope that helps you. Good to see you on the boards, and look forward to reading tips and advice :ok

[READ31]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Thanks mate glad iv finally grasped that one! Following you on Anderson however don't know if I'm brave enough for the handicap,, another one I like is dolgopolov to dispatch andreev at 1.67 on bfair, dolgy is the better player, and is a decent player on hardcourts, am expecting a big year from him and is one I highly rate, andreev has been on a downhill slide with bad form at the tail end of last year, (losing to russel who is awful) and injury problems last year. Again not brave enough for handicaps at this early stage so will go in at 3/10 here. GL all

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Thanks mate glad iv finally grasped that one! Following you on Anderson however don't know if I'm brave enough for the handicap,, another one I like is dolgopolov to dispatch andreev at 1.67 on bfair, dolgy is the better player, and is a decent player on hardcourts, am expecting a big year from him and is one I highly rate, andreev has been on a downhill slide with bad form at the tail end of last year, (losing to russel who is awful) and injury problems last year. Again not brave enough for handicaps at this early stage so will go in at 3/10 here. GL all

Agree that Dolgopolov should be too strong for Andreev. Both men prefer clay but the Ukrainian has shown he can play on faster surfaces. Andreev's been very poor for a while and will wait for the clay events in South America before touching him. Only thing that concerns me on Dolgopolov is that he did his ankle quite badly against Federer in Basel a few months ago and want to be 100% certain on his fitness before hitting him. Outright too short for me but don't envisage too many problems for your bet.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January I cannot see myself taking Dolgopolov as a solid favorite or in any handicaps at all. He is great when he is the outsider, but he loses sets with poor scorelines pretty often. It will be interesting to see whether that will continue to be a trend or not, but I remember him losing first sets pretty badly before fighting out the rest pretty often.

[READ31]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Yeah did see that although he says he is ready so worth a try. About as low odds I will go for not much value but in my opinion should win, he says the ankle will be taped however he is ready. Another I contemplated is dud sela to bear berrer at 2.05, as I think his creativity is enough to undo berrer attacking game and draw mistakes. However I can't remember if he sela had a knock recently struggling to find info..

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Yeah did see that although he says he is ready so worth a try. About as low odds I will go for not much value but in my opinion should win' date=' he says the ankle will be taped however he is ready. Another I contemplated is dud sela to bear berrer at 2.05, as I think his creativity is enough to undo berrer attacking game and draw mistakes. However I can't remember if he sela had a knock recently struggling to find info..[/quote'] Yes, Sela was on my radar too. He ended 2010 very poorly though and I'd like to see him get a bit of form before I take him. Berrer is capable of playing good attacking tennis and that's what I'd be wary of. Difficult one to judge.

[Iwoo]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Hi to all firstly, Shahar Peer (-4,5) x Andrea Petkovic x Gilles Simon - @2,73 Shahar Peer is facing wild card australian Ferguson whom I really doubt could make it through quallies if she wasn't given WC here. She is way of Peer's level and not used to play on this level of WTA tour, in fact her last hard court win on this level was way back in 2007 and tells all and I doubt she has any power to trouble israeli Peer here. Peer opened last season very well with 1/2 final in auckland and final in hobart, so she knows to deal with conditios here down under. She had very nice hard court season in 2010 with w/l 32-14 and 2 sets wins over names like wozniacki, ivanovic and penetta while she was very classy in matchups with low caliber players like ferguson here. I really expect thrashing from Peer here , -5,5 games should be covered also. Andrea Petkovic really did well here in Brisbane last year by reaching 1/2 finals so she will keep in mind she has some points to defend. She is overall player who can perform well on different surfaces and she showed that in 2010 with some nice results, with some nice serve and especially forehand shot. Her opponent is Romanian Alexandra Dulgheru who had solid last season but whats important to note - on clay. On harder surfaces her w/l score is way lower than on clay and I think she won't make some success here on australian hard court season. They never met each other but I rate Petkovic as better player on this surface, played quite well in 2010 here in Brisbane, while her opponent didn't win any single match on aussie tour in same time so I think Petkovic should win here, even in 3 sets if needed. Gilles Simon meets Giraldo here, Simon has quite unusual style of play, very defensive which usually means - boring, but against that kind of player you really need to work hard for every single point and that knows to be painful for some unbalanced players. He's up against columbian Giraldo here, he can play on most surfaces, clay mostly but not with some success on ATP level, win here and there but not against top player on hard court surely. I belive Simon is on the way to continue some nice form he had on last quarter of last season (indoor), he skipped this aussie part of last season due to injury and there are lot of points to grab in his situation and he 's up against a player he beat last year on hard court like today, scoreline was Gilles Simon - Santiago Giraldo 6-1 6-2 (Sunrise challenger in USA) GL to all.

[Bagzi]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January Awesome first post Iwoo, :welcome to PL ! :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-9 January

Hi to all firstly, Shahar Peer (-4,5) x Andrea Petkovic x Gilles Simon - @2,73 Shahar Peer is facing wild card australian Ferguson whom I really doubt could make it through quallies if she wasn't given WC here. She is way of Peer's level and not used to play on this level of WTA tour, in fact her last hard court win on this level was way back in 2007 and tells all and I doubt she has any power to trouble israeli Peer here. Peer opened last season very well with 1/2 final in auckland and final in hobart, so she knows to deal with conditios here down under. She had very nice hard court season in 2010 with w/l 32-14 and 2 sets wins over names like wozniacki, ivanovic and penetta while she was very classy in matchups with low caliber players like ferguson here. I really expect thrashing from Peer here , -5,5 games should be covered also. Andrea Petkovic really did well here in Brisbane last year by reaching 1/2 finals so she will keep in mind she has some points to defend. She is overall player who can perform well on different surfaces and she showed that in 2010 with some nice results, with some nice serve and especially forehand shot. Her opponent is Romanian Alexandra Dulgheru who had solid last season but whats important to note - on clay. On harder surfaces her w/l score is way lower than on clay and I think she won't make some success here on australian hard court season. They never met each other but I rate Petkovic as better player on this surface, player quite well in 2010 here in Brisbane, while her opponent didn't win any single match on aussie tour in same time so I think Petkovic should win here, even in 3 sets if needed. Gilles Simon meets Giraldo here, Simon has quite unusual style of play, very defensive which usually means - boring, but against that kind of player you really need to work hard for every single point and that knows to be painful for some unbalanced players. He's up against columbian Giraldo here, he can play on most surfaces, clay mostly but not with some success on ATP level, win here and there but not against top player on hard court surely. I belive Simon is on the way to continue some nice form he had on last quarter of last season (indoor), he skipped this aussie part of last season due to injure and there are lot of points to grab in his situation and he 's up against a player he beat last year on hard court like today, scoreline was Gilles Simon - Santiago Giraldo 6-1 6-2 (Sunrise challenger in USA) GL to all.

:welcome to PL bud, cracking first post. Hard to argue with the points you put across on Simon (as a WTA novice, I couldn't comment on the others). Just one thing I'd like to add ... Giraldo's favourite surface is actually a hard court, believe it or not! His best results have been on clay but he has said more than once that he prefers a quick surface. His results, as you say, have yet to prove this though. Anyway, I agree, Simon should win and it's an interesting note you make on rankings points. That had completely slipped me by. I expect his motivation to be high. Giraldo will only win if he plays lights-out tennis like he did in Rome last year and everything he skelps is deep and hugs the lines.