shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok A goal has been scored so we have another bet. Bet 2. Lay Over 2.5 Goals. Odds. 1.62 (£1694 waiting to be matched) Stake = £14.00 Liability = £8.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system At this point in time with the score 1-0 we have 2 winning bets sitting there. Bet 1 = £9.55 Profit (after commission) Bet 2 = £13.37 Profit (after commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system At this point in time with the score 1-0 we have 2 winning bets sitting there. Bet 1 = £9.55 Profit (after commission) Bet 2 = £13.37 Profit (after commission) why do you lay 2.5 goals after the first goal and not the second goal? you would get better odds after the second goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? You would.. but you also have the chance of both bets winning and you always have that 1 goal buffer which should in most cases ensure 2 of your bets win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Looks interesting but don't understand it totally. I will read it again ;) Why don't you back instead of laying? That makes it a lot easier for me to read Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I guess you could back and then cover your losses if the score is 0-0 at the end of the game with a correct score lay bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? You would.. but you also have the chance of both bets winning and you always have that 1 goal buffer which should in most cases ensure 2 of your bets win if the first bet wins so does the second bet, if you want more profit when the first bet wins, just place a larger stake on the first bet. maybe i'm missing something, but, i don't see what advantage you gain in betting in this manner. EDIT: when the second goal was scored the lay odds for over 2.5 goals was 1.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Ok another goal so another bet is placed. Bet 3. Lay Over 3.5 Goals. Stake = £22.68. Liability = £30.39. Odds 2.34 The way things stand at the moment: Bet 1 Lost = -£4 Bet 2 Win = £13.37 (after commission) Bet 3 Win = £21.66 (after commission) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? The odds on your 3.5 goals bet is 2.37 compared to Over 3.5 goals - 1.57 on the Stoke game. Big difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? If there is no more goals until the 88th minute and you place your CS bet, and then there is a goal after that, your profit will be very small this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? EDIT: when the second goal was scored the lay odds for over 2.5 goals was 1.32 Im actually betting real money on this game £5, so see how it works out in real.. the odds I got were 1.62. I shall post a screenshot of the bets I placed after the game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? If there is no more goals until the 88th minute and you place your CS bet' date=' and then there is a goal after that, your profit will be very small this time.[/quote'] Your wrong. If there is one goal scored after I place my CS bet then the score will either be 1-2 or 2-1 Our Over 2.5 goals will lose, but our Over 3.5 goals will win, meaning we will will our lost money from the Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals. Our CS bet will be a winner meaning we will also win on that.. which at the moment would be around £40.91 (this is out total liability on all the over x.5 bets) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Im actually betting real money on this game £5, so see how it works out in real.. the odds I got were 1.62. I shall post a screenshot of the bets I placed after the game did you place that bet when the score was 1-0 or 1-1? at 1-1 the odds were 1.32. i just wanted to make a note of it so we could compare the two methods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I got so confused I decided to have a go myself, although slightly differently. I did the lay of 1.5 goals however didn't lay 2.5 goals until the 2nd goal.... I did it to try to win a tenner, will let you know at the end how it all went and how it compared. Not sure if your watching the game but this is a good link: http://nutjobtv.yolasite.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I placed the Over 1.5 Goals before the match and then placed the Over 2.5 goals after the first goal and then the Over 3.5 Goals after the 2nd goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I got so confused I decided to have a go myself, although slightly differently. I did the lay of 1.5 goals however didn't lay 2.5 goals until the 2nd goal.... I did it to try to win a tenner, will let you know at the end how it all went and how it compared. Not sure if your watching the game but this is a good link: http://nutjobtv.yolasite.com/ Will be interesting to see how it turns out Aldric.. your method is the way Clay is proposing I think. Im only doing it to win £5 as im still a little confused myself :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? if the first bet wins so does the second bet, if you want more profit when the first bet wins, just place a larger stake on the first bet. maybe i'm missing something, but, i don't see what advantage you gain in betting in this manner. EDIT: when the second goal was scored the lay odds for over 2.5 goals was 1.32 The advantage of laying with a goal buffer is that if a goal is scored late on in the game 70min+ then the odds for the next bet are going to be very high. With the goal buffer we already have a bet in place to cover this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? At this point, we have 2 winning bets. If there is a goal in extra time then we will still have a winning bet which will cover all of our loses and leave us with a £9.50 profit. Its now the 87th minute and the correct score market is still at 1.4 so if we placed the bet now and now more goals were scored then we would just about break even. If we placed the correct score bet and another goal is scored we would be well in profit. I am going to place no more bets - we have 2 winning bets and would now only lose money if there are 2 goals in extra time. This is also the advantage of having the 1 goal buffer :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? I am going to place no more bets - we have 2 winning bets and would now only lose money if there are 2 goals in extra time. This is also the advantage of having the 1 goal buffer :) When there are 2 goals in extra time, then you won money because of the correct score bet or am I wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Nice one shadow :ok I am guaranteed a profit as well as I did a lay on 1-1 @ 1.29, although I am still not sure how much lol.... I think the big drawback of this system is if there are goals in the 2nd half as the liability is going to be huge. In one way thats the benefit of not going for the buffer as the liability is significantly less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? When there are 2 goals in extra time' date=' then you won money because of the correct score bet or am I wrong?[/quote'] No if there are 2 goals in extra time the total goals would be 4 meaning out Lay 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals would be losers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Im predicting I have won £15.89 from my original lay of £5.. but will post the screenshot later. I am unable to do the last game as I have friends coming over. Are you going to do it Aldric? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? No if there are 2 goals in extra time the total goals would be 4 meaning out Lay 1.5' date=' 2.5 and 3.5 goals would be losers[/quote'] Yeah but with your correct score lay you have a very small loss? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Hey, Shadowvkc, I was one of those who didn't believe this was viable at all, but after these two matches, I slightly changed my opinion; I'm still very suspicious about long run results, but at least it seems worth trying. As Hernacrespo noticed, lay odds for over 3.5 are significantly higher in this second game - just because second goal was scored later! That's point I emphasized in one of my posts in the first thread you opened on this strategy - you were lucky with these two matches, as all goals were scored in first half; but that's a pretty rare case, and two goals after 65-70 minute of the match would see your lay odds too high. But nevermind; I have created small Excel to calculate these stakes and profit/loss; you can find it here (at the bottom of the list): www.strugar.info/pl/bet.htm You need to enter only initial stake and odds you place your lays at; also, don't forget to adjust commission level; enter number of goals scored in section "Result", and once you know outcome of bet on correct score market, enter Y or N in appropriate field for that bet (obviously, if you won, enter Y, and vice versa). There are two sheets with data from those two games, and your calculatoions were correct; for this second match, at the time I type this, I don't know at which odds you placed bet at Correct Score market, so I left it at 1.20, too, but change if needed. Good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? The advantage of laying with a goal buffer is that if a goal is scored late on in the game 70min+ then the odds for the next bet are going to be very high. With the goal buffer we already have a bet in place to cover this good point. I think we have seen the system at its best in the last two games. we need to see it at its worst before we can judge it. The system handled the early goals in the stoke game with no problem, as you say it the late goal games that will test it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Im predicting I have won £15.89 from my original lay of £5.. but will post the screenshot later. I am unable to do the last game as I have friends coming over. Are you going to do it Aldric? I am not sure if I will do it, I am not confident about what happens if there are goals in the 2nd half. I was more than comfortable with the liability I had, but I would have been a bit more concerned with a goal between 75-87 minutes. Although I guess the odds will be lower with Man U and maybe put a stop loss on it. I didn't really do very well with the £10 lay to start, I put the 1-1 lay in about 88' @ 1.29 and it took up a lot of the potential profit. Lay OveroddsLiabilityTotal LiabilityTo win1.5£1.40£4.21£4.21£10.002.5£1.34£5.10£9.31£14.251-1£1.29£4.06£13.30Profit£5.98 The red shows the bets I lost and the green is the lay over 2.5... so total profit of £5.98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? www.strugar.info/pl/bet.htm Great spreadsheet! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? Celtic v St johnston springs to mind on boxing day,i think you could prob win some decent money,but the risks are massive,good luck anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system - experts to check my figures please?? im not trying to be a killjoy,but these things do happen:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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