shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Wow.. first goal after just 4 Minutes. I will now look to Lay Over 2.5 Goals for my £10 profit + my £4.8 Liability from the previous bet. Odds taken for Over 2.5 goals = 1.54. Stake = £14.80. Liability = £7.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system I am confused, already! lol..... I guess it works out well if there are no more goals as both your bets will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system 0-2............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Holy.. another goal at 11 minutes. So much for picking games with low odds for under 2.5 goals as the market predicts a low scoring game. Ok so my new bet would be to Lay Over 3.5 Goals. My stake will be £7.99(Liability from previous bet) + £4.80(Liability from previous bet) + £10(my target) Stake = £22.79. Odds = 1.57. Liability = £12.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok Aldric.. at the moment this is how it would work out: The score is 0-2 Iv bet there wont be Over 1.5 Goals. (£4.8 Liability) Goal was scored. This bet would still be a winner if there was no more goals, but to cover myself against another goal I then Bet that there wont be Over 2.5 Goals. This Over 2.5 goals bet will be for my £10 profit and my £4.8 liability. Goal was scored. The Over 1.5 Goals has now lost. The Over 2.5 Goals is still a winner aslong as no more goals are scored. To cover the eventuality of another goal, I then bet that there wont be over 3.5 goals. This over 3.5 goals bet will be for my £10 profit, my £4.8 liability from the Over 1.5 goals, and my £7.99 liability from my Over 2.5 goals. This is where we are up to so far. Make some kind of sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Yes makes perfect sense, I didn't realise that you always gave yourself a goal buffer. A good game to trial it on :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok so it is half time and this is the picture so far: We have 2 bets in play which are both winners at the moment: Lay Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 Goals. Our potential profit = £32.79 Our potential liability = £24.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Finished 0-2 to Fulham.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok I will now place a Lay the correct current score bet. The odds are 1.2 and my stake will by for all of my liability aka £24.78, liability £5.16 We now have 3 possible outcomes. 1. No more goals. £32.79 - £5.16 - 4.80 = £22.83 2. 1 More goal will mean our Over 2.5 bet is a loser, but our over 3.5 goal is a winner and our correct score bet is a winner. Libitlity for 1.5 goals = -4.80 Libility for 2.5 goals = -7.99 Profit for 3.5 goals = 22.79 profit for correct score = 24.78 total profit = 34.78 3. More than 3 goals Same as above 4. More than 4 goals scored. Over 1.5, 2.5 and over 3.5 bets will become a loser so our total liability on them is £25.97 Our total profit from the correct score bet = 24.62 So our total loss = 1.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Finished 0-2 to Fulham.. Thats right so we won: We lost our first bet so -£4.80 Our Lay Over 2.5 Goals won so +14.80 Our Lay Over 3.5 Goals won so +22.79 Our Lay correct score bet lost so -5.16 Total profit = £27.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Looking at this game.. i think this could become a profitable system with practice :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Can you write out the maths a bit clearer, including what part of the 'profit' for the lay over 2.5 and lay over 3.5 is your original liability for those bets. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Lay over 1.5 goals: what's the liability and how much to win? Lay over 2.5 goals: what's the liability and how much to win? Lay over 3.5 goals: what's the liability and how much to win? Lay the current score of 0-2: what's the liability and how much to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Interesting, glad you gave the example :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Sure. Ok so bet 1 is Lay Over 1.5 goals. We stake £10 on this bet, so our potential profit = £9.95 and our potential liability is £4.80. This bet lost so we placed another bet on Lay Over 2.5 goals. We stake £14.80 on this bet, so our potential profit = £14.06 (we should have staked slightly more to cover the 5% commission). Our potential liability is £7.99. This bet won so we currently have £14.06 profit - £4.80 from our first bet = £9.26 To cover the eventuality of another goal we also placed the bet Lay Over 3.5 goals. We stake £22.79 on this bet (this would have covered the loss from the Over 2.5 goals and the Over 1.5 goals and given us a £9.95 profit) This bet won so we currently have a profit of £9.26 + £21.65 = £30.91 To cover the eventuality of 2 or more goals in injury time we placed the bet Lay the correct current score. We stake £25.78 on this bet to cover our liability from the other bets (£4.80 + £7.99 + £12.99) £25.78. Liability £5.16 There were no more goals scored so this bet lost, so we lost £5.16. Our total Profit for the game is £30.91 - £5.16 so £25.75 ** it seems my previous profit calculation was incorrect as in a few calcuations i forgot the 5% commission. I am wondering if someone a little more experienced in football betting could double check my figures please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Lay over 1.5 goals: Liability £4.80 to win £9.50 Lay over 2.5 goals: Liability £7.99 to win £14.80 Lay over 3.5 goals: Liability £12.99 to win £22.79 Lay the current score of 0-2: Liability £5.16 to win £24.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system The next game is starting at 5.30 so I will try to work this out correctly with the proper comission and I will attempt to make it a little simpler Game is West Ham V Everton Bet 1. Lay Over 1.5 goals. Liability = £4.00 Potential profit = £9.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Your total profit was: £22.79 + £14.80 - £4.80 - £5.16 = £27.63 If there had been a goal in say the 91st minute, your profit would have been: £22.79 + £24.49 - £4.80 - £7.99 = £34.49!! To be honest with you, this seems a bit too good to be true. Can you provide the odds for each bet too please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system What you've written is a perfect system, but did you check the odds for each bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Yes I have checked the odds for each bet: Over 1.5 goals - 1.48 Over 2.5 goals - 1.54 Over 3.5 goals - 1.57 Correct score - 1.2 These are the odds of which I could have easily got matched on as there was plently of liquidity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system The next game is starting at 5.30 so I will try to work this out correctly with the proper comission and I will attempt to make it a little simpler Game is West Ham V Everton Bet 1. Lay Over 1.5 goals. Liability = £4.00 Potential profit = £9.50 The odds for this first bet is 1.4. Liquidity is £412 waiting to be matched at that amount Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system So the only scenario which screws you up is if the game is very high scoring within the match, like a freak 8-0 win or something? Because you wouldn't be able to get the liquidity on Betfair for the over 7.5 market etc? Also, you have to take into account that if your internet/electricity failed you'd be in trouble wouldn't you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Yes very high scoring games would screw you up.. but the games I have selected today have all been odds of for Over 2.5 goals... this is an indication that the market are not expecting loads of goals. Obviously if the internet or electricity failed you would be in trouble.. But i have a laptop which is always plugged in so the battery is always full and I have an internet dongle for back up.. so that wouldnt really be to much of a problem for me.. the problem is sitting here watching the screen for the duration of the game as I have no interest in football :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system The odds will be worse if a goal is scored late on, ie between 80-87 minutes... I think an early goal or two and no more is about as perfect for this system as it can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Also, the odds you've quoted are very generous ones, so I assume you're on Betfair and are trading pretty aggressively to get the best odds each time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Obviously if the internet or electricity failed you would be in trouble.. But i have a laptop which is always plugged in so the battery is always full and I have an internet dongle for back up.. so that wouldnt really be to much of a problem for me.. the problem is sitting here watching the screen for the duration of the game as I have no interest in football :( Use http://www.futbol24.com/Live/ and it will BEEP at you when / if there is a goal - turn the volume up so you hear it :dude, no need to sit and watch the game or the odds etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Nope.. no trading at all, these are the odds that were readily available at the time of my posts with more than enough money there to take our bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Nice, can you have a look at the over 0.5 goals HT market and see what odds you can get on Betfair at the moment? I might sign up if the odds are much better than 365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Odds on 365 are 1.66 at 14:38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Never mind, there's been a goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.