shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Ok so no system involving martingale is perfect, but I am going to try something which could be very profitable. This is one of the first football systems I have used, so will be using very small stakes (£10). The rules are simple. I will lay Under 1.5 Goals for a £10 stake. After one goal I will then lay Under 2.5 Goals for my £10 stake + the liability for the first bet. If another goal is scored I will lay Under 3.5 Goals for my £10 stake + all the previous liability. I will keep going until the the 87th minute. To protect me against a goal in injury time I will then lay the current correct score to cover all my liability on the Under markets. Because the game is so close to the end, the odds to lay the current correct score should be very low thus allowing a profit either way. I would be interested in any ideas or thoughts you guys have, but I will be starting on the Arsenal v Chelsea game at 8pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I don't like it! don't do it! It will end in :cry. The Lubet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Hey Lubet.. why dont you think it is going to work? Like I said I have no real idea about football betting, so welcome all input Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system I am a bit confused by it to be honest.... So for tonights game you start with about £30 liability and lose if there is 1 goal or less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Chasing losses will work in certain situations if you have backtesting on your side, and have balls of steel!!!! Playing with in-play has the problem of LIFE, everyday life and what goes with it, electricity goes out, computor crashes, internet goes off line, a whole host of things, girlfriend or wife threathens you with death if you dont come of the net!!!!! The Lubet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Wise words Lubet, life ruins inplay betting careers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Hey aldric, it should work out like this: Lay Under 1.5 for odds 3.85. Stake - £10. Liability - £28.50. Potential P/L - £9.55 Goal Scored. Goal Scored. Now this bet becomes a losing bet so we have lost £28.50. Lay Under 2.5 for odds 3.85. Stake - £38.50. Liability - £109.73. Potential P/L - £9.55 Goal Scored. Lay Under 3.5 for odds 3.85. Stake - £77. Liability - £219.45. Potential P/L - £9.55 Keep doing this until it is around the 87th Minute. Now we have a problem. If there is a goal scored in injury time then our Under 3.5 bet will lose and we will have lost £219.45 + £109.73 + £28.50 = £357.68 At this time the odds for the Correct Score market should be around 1.01. So we will place a bet for £358 to cover all of our loses. Our liability will be £3.57 We have no covered all of our bases. If there are no more goals scored we will have £9.55 - £3.57 = +5.98 If there is a goal scored then we will cover all of our loses and only lose the correct score liability of -3.57 Obviously I would expect the odds for Under 2.5 and Under 3.5 to be alot lower than 3.85, so I think we could come out with a profit with both outcomes. What are your thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Chasing losses will work in certain situations if you have backtesting on your side, and have balls of steel!!!! Playing with in-play has the problem of LIFE, everyday life and what goes with it, electricity goes out, computor crashes, internet goes off line, a whole host of things, girlfriend or wife threathens you with death if you dont come of the net!!!!! The Lubet I generally agree with you on this.. and I hate chasing losses. I believe if a system cannot make a profit to level stakes then it has no hope. But that said, the reason chasing losses usually fails is because the bank is bust. Now with a game of football, we will only ever have 6 losing bets in a row (under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5 goals) and we can cover the potential for games with 7+ goals with a final cover bet on the Correct score market. If your bank is large enough, and your stakes small enough then I think long term this has potential. I dont know enough about odds of inplay games yet to even know if what I propose would work.. but in theory (well in my head) it should :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jk Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Hey aldric, it should work out like this: Lay Under 1.5 for odds 3.85. Stake - £10. Liability - £28.50. Potential P/L - £9.55 Goal Scored. Goal Scored. If you are laying under 1.5 goals, and two goals are scored, then your bet is a winner :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jk Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system At this time the odds for the Correct Score market should be around 1.01. So we will place a bet for £358 to cover all of our loses. Our liability will be £3.57 I very much doubt the odds for correct score at 87th minute will be 1.01, you're looking closer to 1.15 imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hernancrespo Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system This system has bankrupt written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Sorry JK. Im confusing myself. The correct bets would be Overs not Unders. So you are betting that there wont be over 1.5 goals If there are 2 goals the bet is a loser You then bet there wont be over 2.5 goals If there is another goal the bet is a loser You then bet there wont be over 3.5 goals But maths above still stand - and the odds to lay Over is always lower. So in the above example ay Under 1.5 for odds 1.35. Stake - £10. Liability - £3.60. Potential P/L - £9.55 Goal Scored. Goal Scored. Now this bet becomes a losing bet so we have lost £3.60 Lay Under 2.5 for odds 2.16. Stake - £13.60. Liability - £15.78. Potential P/L - £9.55 Goal Scored. Lay Under 3.5 for odds 3.7. Stake - £27.20 Liability - £73.44. Potential P/L - £9.55 Keep doing this until it is around the 87th Minute. Now we have a problem. If there is a goal scored in injury time then our Under 3.5 bet will lose and we will have lost £73.44 + 13.60 + 3.60 = £90.64 At this time the odds for the Correct Score market should be around 1.15. So we will place a bet for £90.64 to cover all of our loses. Our liability will be £13.60 This changes everything.... If there are no more goals scored we will have £9.55 - £13.50 = -3.95 If there is a goal scored then we will cover all of our loses and only lose the correct score liability of -13.60 Now although this shows a loss on both sides, I have taken the odds for the Under 2.5 and Under 3.5 pre match. As the number of goals increase then the odds should reduce... we will have to see if they come down enough to produce a profit on both sides Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system This system has bankrupt written all over it. I have no idea if it will work.. but it is an angle which I havent seen on here before so I thought it might be worth talking about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Well, I see you're off for your challenge; good luck! :ok Though, I'm afraid that your calculation is not very detailed when it comes to the odds. Odds for under X.5 goals after X goals have been scored indeed drop with time; they start at odds for correct score 0-0 in the moment of first goal, and then follow odds for odds of current score; they will reach 3.85 only at around 50 to 60 minute (i.e., if X goals were scored before 50 minute, you will have to lay under X.5 goals at considerably higher odds). Let me try to explain in this case: lay odds for CS 0-0 in your match are 13.00 at the moment. They will start dropping when the match begins, and after 15 minutes they will be around 10.50; if goal is scored in that moment, let's say 1-0, then odds for correct score 1-0, as well as odds for under 1.5 goals, will be set at 10.50, and will continue dropping. At around 35 minute, they will drop to around 7.50, and if second goal is scored in that moment, let's say 1-1, then odds for correct score 1-1 and under 2.5 goals will be 7.50... and you will have to place your second lay bet at those considerably high odds. If second goal is scored early into second half, odds for under 2.5 goals will be around 6.00, and, as I said, they will reach 3.85 in this game somewhere around 60 minute; now just imagine if there are three goals before that period - your total liability would skyrocket! But, I see disastrous assumption in your insurance bet: you will never be able to lay current score at odds of 1.01 for purpose of this strategy! Usually, odds for current score at 87 minute of the match (when you intend to place your insurance bet) are around 1.25; at the beginning of injury time, it's 1.15, and in most of the matches, these odds never reach 1.01 - market gets closed at 1.03 or so! EDIT: I have just realized that not only you, but I confused unders/overs, too; so, all my story above, except the last paragraph, is bullsh*t, sorry! :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system You can always try with points not with real money to see how it will be working. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system I very much doubt the odds for correct score at 87th minute will be 1.01' date=' you're looking closer to 1.15 imo.[/quote'] Ditto! :ok Shadowvkc, despite JK's remark, you repeated confussion of under / over in post #12; I think that you must take care not to press wrong button in Betfair - it happenned to me a couple of times, I had intention to place lay bet, but I mistakenly pressed back button, and vice versa.:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Thanks guys.. i dont suppose anyone is watching the game tonight and could record the odds? I have a family emergency and have to go out now :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system told u this was a crazy idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system told u this was a crazy idea I dont think it is.. its provoked a little discussion and all we have come up with so far is that we need more data to prove or disprove this works. As soon as the next big game comes on, and I am in front of the computer I shall paper trade it - you may be plesently suprised :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system I think the problem here will be your stated lack of knowledge about the particular sport. It's that knowledge which could be the edge required to succeed. It is only a numbers game being played here in effect, but the correct selection of a live game will have an influence on the success of the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system It is always good to discuss ideas and I have no idea if this will work. What bet are you placing in the 87th minute? I can see there being problems at the end of the matches because it isn't that unusual for more than 1 goal to be scored after 87 minutes. If there is say 1 on 89 minutes and then another on 92 minutes you will have to place a fortune on the correct score to break even never mind make a profit. Try this out on paper trading before you do it for real.. I just can't see how it will work unless there are very few goals in the game. If you are looking for some football interest and to the opportunity to make a few pounds, laying the draw is always a good one to start with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system I tried the trading the draw system here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/football-trading-draw-46240/ I did well for a while with a small bank and it is defiantely possible to make a profit with this system. With your bank you could have some fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Thanks for the input guys.. i do think my lack of knowledge would be a massive dissadvantage. The bet in the 87th minute would be Lay the correct score aldric, so if a goal is then scored in the 89th and 92nd minute this bet would be a winner and cover the losses from laying Under x.5 goals. At this stage its just an idea, and i will be paper trading a few large games (large for the liquidity) Ill have a little look at Trading the draw :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system The bet in the 87th minute would be Lay the correct score aldric, so if a goal is then scored in the 89th and 92nd minute this bet would be a winner and cover the losses from laying Under x.5 goals. Ahh. That makes a lot more sense :ok There are loads of games on this afternoon, pick a couple and paper trade them. The only other problem you could face is if there are lots of goals because as far as I am aware the over / unders market usually only goes to o/u 6.5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Yes thats the main problem I would have aldric.. if i was more experienced then I would be able to pick games where there arent many goals expected... so to counter this I will only trade games where Under 2.5 goals are less than 2 - use the market as my indicator :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok iv decided to use the Barclays Premier League and iv shortlised the following games as they all have odds of less than 2 to back Under 2.5 goals indicating that there will not alot of goals. Stoke V Fulham 3pm West Ham V Everton 5.30pm Brimingham V Man Utd 8.00pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Interesting reading Aldric with your thread - are you likely to pick it back up any time soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok iv decided to use the Barclays Premier League and iv shortlised the following games as they all have odds of less than 2 to back Under 2.5 goals indicating that there will not alot of goals. Stoke V Fulham 3pm West Ham V Everton 5.30pm Brimingham V Man Utd 8.00pm Good luck with this afternoon, will be interesting to see some real examples :ok Interesting reading Aldric with your thread - are you likely to pick it back up any time soon? Have a look at futbal 24 and check the stats out for teams, it tells you their average over / under 2.5 goals.. that might help you for selections as well. I just re-read the thread myself, blast from the past! (2007!) - Datapunter did one as well, have a look for that as it was with higher stakes. I might have another go at it in the future as it is definately possible to make a profit from it. A few things I picked up on from reading it again which I would probably take on board if I did start it again: 1. Trade on games that you can watch and probably concentrate on 1 match at a time. 2. Have a backup exchange, eg betdaq (betfair was down once when I was trading and I could have lost a significant part of my trading bank). 3. If you can trade out for a profit / berak even on all 3 outcomes, do it.... do not wait and be greedy. I am going back to putting all my efforts in to what I am doing in my blog and try to make a few quid on there. GL this afternoon :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Ok iv decided to use the Barclays Premier League and iv shortlised the following games as they all have odds of less than 2 to back Under 2.5 goals indicating that there will not alot of goals. Stoke V Fulham 3pm West Ham V Everton 5.30pm Brimingham V Man Utd 8.00pm What are the odds you are starting with on the stoke game? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: The perfect martingale system Hey aldric.. i will be first of laying the Over 1.5 goals at 1.48 for a £10 Stake ** all of this is paper money :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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