NFL Week Fourteen Picks

[AGurv]

NFL 2010-2011 Overall 29-23-1 +2.75 units (55.76%) Last Week 3-1 Pretty good week. I feel like I should have went 4-0 though (not too be greedy). The Buc's should have really won that game. They were up 10 with 10 minutes to go and couldn't get it done. They got ****** by some bad reffing at the end with Atl getting a gift interception. Onto next week Colts -2.5 (-125) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Frankly I think they are flat out giving away money here. This might be the square bet of the year and I'm sure everybody and there grandmother will be on the Colts. But come on, Rusty Smith? Chris Johnson not getting it done right now with out Vince Young? Manning has really sucked of late but the team is still putting up points, I don't see that changing against the Titans.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Collins started last week, and to my knowledge thre's no reason he won't start again this week.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Collins started last week' date=' and to my knowledge thre's no reason he won't start again this week.[/quote'] There's a difference?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Definitely agree with the Colts here. My understanding is that Collins will start over Smith, but truthfully I don't really feel it matters. Jacksonville came away with a 14pt win over the weekend and the Colts are at least as good. Also, Titans are really struggling for points. In their last 4 they have posted 3, 0, 17 and 17. Bar the San Diego Game, Colts have scored at least 23 points since week 6, including 35 v Dallas, 28 v Pats and 24 v Eagles. Whatever deficiencies the Colts have right now, and there are a few, they are still doing well on the scoreboard, and the Titans r. Their defense doesn't really strike me as being strong enough to shut out the Colts and unless Peyton throws a few more picks I don't really see where the Titans cover comes from. Furthermore, Peyton is a class player in bad form. Class is permanent, form is temporary, I expect Peyton to illustrate this perfectly.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks The lack of a ( ;) ), or ( :eyes ) actually worries me there, Agurv... :unsure Will probably stay clear of this game, but Devil's Advocate stuff... ...they've been struggling for points simply because they never have the ball. Played some teams with decent run games who have been able to simply pound the ball 3-4-5 yards at a time. In their last 5 games they've had the ball for 22, 27,

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks SF v. Seattle OVER 41 Washington v. TB under 41 NE WIN Have played these games today...write-ups Friday afternoon/Saturday I reckon...busy couple of days ahead. :\

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Definitely feel that CJ2K is the main threat. Despite Indi's TOP problems though, they are still scoring well. Went to Foxborough and put up 28 against the Pats, which looks a hell of a lot more impressive given how Steelers and Jets have fared in comparison. Feel that Kenny Britt might have a bit of an influence. If he doesn't play I think Colts can put another man on run defense. "Trap line" (really don't like that term btw) of the week surely has to be Atlanta -7 (though now -7.5 at some places). They seem to be just scraping home right now and I think Carolina has a lot more potential than the scoreline suggested at Seattle last week. Clausen should be be motived to help avoid Carolina's getting the #1 pick and thus Andrew Luck, whilst I think Johnathan Stewart adds a helluvalot to their ground game. Statistically, logically, empirically, I reckon Falcons should cover with ease, but can't help but feel Carolina will over-perform in this spot. Jacksonville divisional bet looking handy now. Wish I actually got on though! Did you ever find out if Foster was in the most rushing yds market?

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Yeah I was wrong, Its Collins starting. I still dont think that changes the fact that Colts can't, shouldn't, wont lose 4 in a row. I know thats a pretty good way of losing money thinking like that but I just dont see it. Bills -1 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Only problem I think I have here is Hillis. I'm not too worried about Dellhomme. Bills can bounce back from last week, that game could have been a lot closer then it was. Stevie Johnson should probably really try hard to redeem himself. I think top to bottom the Bills are better then the Browns and they are at home.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Atlanta/Carolina Under 42.5 The Panthers are a real mess this season. But they're playing a little more inspired as of late. They've ran the ball quite well lately, unfortunately they've been forced out of that game plan due to a poor passing game. In their recent games the Panthers have been trying to keep things close, but they eventually give up a TD return, blowing the game wide open. I don't see the Panthers making the random big play nor do I see the Falcons turning the ball over. The Falcons will be content with running Turner, but I can see Stewart and Goodson having some success as well. Fox usually coaches up this strategy against division opponents.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Cardinals +5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes I am not taking the new coach theory into affect here. I know this is a popular trend. In fact I'm fading it. Both teams ******* suck, advantage home team.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Indi having now further injury problems with Garcon hurt and looking unlikely, and Powers out for the year to further depelete a terrible defense... ...(and I reckon Manning is injured...no-one's saying much, but I'm pretty sure that 'sleeve' on his elbow has appeared in recent weeks...certainly doesn't look to be as much zip on his throws as we are used to... :\ )

Hayden still OUT, Session still OUT, Powers now OUT, Brackett ???...had to sign a guy of the practice squad for this weeks game... Addai still OUT, Hart now OUT, Brown ???... ...Collie still OUT, Wayne and Tamme both ??? I don't care how good someone's reputation is, that is some kind of hole right there!!! :eek

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Jacksonville divisional bet looking handy now. Wish I actually got on though! Did you ever find out if Foster was in the most rushing yds market?

There's no doubt that's I'm looking at the Titans with some kind of glowing hope coming into tomorrow... :lol [but, yeah, Indi's problems are still real ;) ] ...and there is no Foster in that rushing prop, or Charles for that matter. MJD: 1177 A-P: 1123 Turner 1062 C-J: 1026 Mendenhall 1007 Jackson: 985 Gore: 854 and no more... Jones-Drew looks to have it well and truly sewn up with 3 games left v. teams in the bottom 5 or so for rushing allowed!! (Indi, Oak, Wash)... ...still, if he tops 100 each week from here on in, chances are their Division aspirations are still very much alive... :hope :hope [Turner 2 games left v. Panthers...but I guess one thing I didn't fugure was that there's a very real chance he gets rested in that last game if they've sewn up no. 1 seed. :\ ...oh, for the sensibilities of E/W betting... :wall :rollin ] EDIT: Adding Minni v. NYG under 43 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) Way overblown total due to both scoring big last week, but there's no way Minni run here like they did v. Buff. Giants relied on big plays and TO's last week...still were forced to punt 6 times... ...2 teams who faced a couple of the worst run D's in teh NFL now face a couple of the best.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Yeah, Colts not looking as strong a proposition now with that secondary. Still a strong play with that opening line though and I can and will reduce my stake and still make a profit thanks to early decision making. Colts with a vulnerability against CJ I think would have gone fine, they could have just stacked the line and been ok IMO. With secondary problems in addition to that, I think that's one hole too many. Particularly with Britt back. E/W betting? Far too sensible and conservative for my liking. Keep attacking those 51 shots ;) Not sure I'd rule out Houston yet either... think they might beat the Ravens, for whom I'd like to see odds to miss playoffs. Really liking the look of Atlanta 1-6 (5.00). They aren't as proficient outdoors and they rarely hammer anyone. Carolina's strength is on the ground and with Turner pounding it out at the other end I think you'll see a lot of time eaten up by rushing plays. They've won their last 5, 4 of them by less than a TD.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Tennessee @ 2.52 pinnacle Tennessee will use RB Johnson quite extensively here as Indy allows 143 rushing yards per game (ranked 29th) and nearly 5 yards per carry. Dallas ran for 217 yards last week in their 38-35 win over Indy, so expect Johnson to do well here. While their passing game is ordinary, if they get the running game going, then there will little need to rely on QB Collins Indy pass for 303 yards while scoring 26 points per game but Manning has been prone to throwing INTs in his last few games, and with Tennessee having caught 15 INTs so far this year, then like their chances of their secondary doing well here. They also have a very good pass rush with 33 sacks so expect Manning to be alot of pressure during the game, especially with the amount of injuries on the team. While the Titans struggle to stop the run, the Colts do not have anyone healthy enough to take advantage of this. Overall: 29-46 (-6.57)

[PinPointPrecision]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Just took the Colts -6.5 @ 2.57 Centrebet. The Titans season seems to be in disarray after the Vince Young Fiasco. Tennessee need a serious change in form if there are going to get anything from this game. Payton Manning is still one of the best and most realiable QB's in the NFL. Seeing as it is the most important and potentially dominating position on the field I see him being the game winner here. Colts to win by atleast a touchdown @ 2.57 (38.91% IP) seems generous to me. Good luck :hope

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Saw that loss coming from a mile away, congrats black crow

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Saw that loss coming from a mile away' date=' congrats black crow[/quote'] Nope. :( Worst possible result for everyone here...not one winner. :wall Some big, (un)timely plays really swung it either way...The first "pass interference" call was a ******* disgrace :puke ...maybe a tiny pull on the jersey, but certainly didn't impede him, nor was the ball catchable... ...obviously the botched snap on the punt was a disaster... ...but yeah, always tough to lose when a fav plays a soft last 2 minutes to allow a late score. :spank

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Will be back with some details tomorrow for sure...but for now... Eli under 244.5 (1.86 @ 365) Palmer over 230.5 (1.83 @ Lad) Mendenhall over 77.5 (1.83 @ Lad) Fred Jackson over 75.5 (1.83 @ Lad) :cheers

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks ok...time to get onto this... San Fran v. Seattle over 41.5 (1.95 PP...could still be a rare 41 about?) League: 33-18-1 over (Av. total 40.9...av. score 44.1) home 3+ fav, ff a 7+ ats loss as road 7+ dog with

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Cowboys +4 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Fading the public on this one. After what happened with the Colts it almost feels like something I have to do. Dallas is a much better team then they were with Wade Phillips. I have a feeling Vick's play is going to start coming down considerably. The Bears showed a good game plan on how to contain him.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Atlanta 1-6 @ Sportsbet Though Carolina have been truly poor this season I can't help but feel there is value in this one. Atlanta rarely beat anybody by more than a score and with two feature RBs in Turner and Stewart I think we'll see a fair bit of time taken out of the clock. Being a divisional game I think Carolina will be competitive and though I don't see them winning this I do feel they can keep it close. Line is at 8.5 but I feel sacrificing those 2.5pts to get 2.5x the odds is well worth it. Steelers 1-6 @ Sportsbet Coming off a short week and two mentally sapping victories (OT @ Bills, Late win @ Ravens) I feel the Steelers might struggle to get going a bit. This game I feel is far too important to them for them to lose, and when the game is in the balance I think we'll see them do enough, but against a divisional rival with their preparation I don't feel a blow out is going to be the most likely way this one unfolds. I see this as being somewhat similar to their previous match up, where Steelers had the game in their hands for the most part, but failed to put it away and had to repel a late Bengals drive to win by 6. Seattle @ 3.15 Betfair Think the Seahawks offer good value here. 49ers have lost their best offensive weapon in Gore and their problems at Quarterback still persist. Seattle have produced a couple of good upset wins on the road this year and I really don't feel that the 49ers deserve this level of favouritism. This is a game with two mediocre offenses and two mediocre defenses in a division that aspires to mediocrity. As such I'm taking the team at longer odds in what I feel is in many ways a crapshoot between two crappy teams.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Tennessee @ 2.52 :@ Week 14: 0-1 (-1.00) Overall: 29-46 (-6.57) (update at the end of the week) Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.41 centrebet Green Bay's QB Rodgers has thrown for 14 TDs and jujst 3 INTs in all 5 games he has played against Detroit, that he has won. With WR's Jennings and Driver, they have some very good players to aim for, and their run game got a boost with the encouraging performance by Starks as he ran for 73 yards in his debut last week in their win over 34-16 win over San Francisco last week. Detroit allows 223 passing yards (ranked 16th) and 127 rushing yards (ranked 23rd) per game, which should have problems facing this Packers offence. Detroit are starting their 3rd string QB here and expect plenty of pressure from the GB LB's A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews as Stanton passed for 178 yards for a TD and an INT last week against Chicago. While Detroit average 250 passing yards per game (ranked 8th) this was based on Stafford and Hill passing the ball, and if they try to run the ball with Best, they are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game (ranked 28th). The Packers allow 205 passing yards (ranked 6th) as well as 111 rushing yards (ranked 16th) per game, so like the Packers to close down this offence. The Packers are better on both sides of the ball, and need a win to keep their chances of winning the NFC North alive. They are 6-2 as a road favourite in divisional games while they have won their last 3 games by 18+ points. Also they have won their last 4 games in Detroit by 7, 11, 23 and 22 points. Jacksonville -6.5 @ 2.37 centrebet Jacksonville focus on running the ball as they are averaging 152 rushing yards per game and had 258 rushing yards against Tennessee last week. RB Jones-Drew has 1177 rushing yards and 6 TDs while QB Gerrard has been very efficient of late. Oakland's defence did well to limit San Diego last week, but they still have problems in defending the run, allowing 124 rushing yards per game (ranked 23rd) while also allowing 207 passing yards per game (ranked 9th). Oakland too like to run the ball as they had 251 rushing yards in the win over San Diego last week. They are averaging 149 rushing yards per game (ranked 3rd) while passing for just 190 passing yards (ranked 28th). Jacksonville allow 110 rushing yards per game (ranked 17th) and will have a tough test here, but they did hold Tennessee and Chris Johnson to just 57 rushing yards last week. They do allow 253 passing yards (ranked 29th) but doubt that Oakland take advantage of this, and expect them to be fatigued here, given that they are playing their 2nd road game in a row, and having to travel to the east coast to play this game. The Jags look to maintain their lead in the AFC South with a game against the Colts next week, they cannot afford a loss here. San Diego -13.5 @ 2.75 centrebet San Diego should bounce back here after their upset loss to Oakland last week as they avergae 292 passing yards (ranked 2nd) and 106 rushing yards (ranked 19th) which sees them rank 3rd in points scored, with 27 points scored per game. Kansas allowws 20 points per game based on 233 passing yards (ranked 21st) and 102 rushing yards (ranked 12th). Looking at QB Rivers to have a big game here to erase last weeks loss. Kansas run for 175 rushing yards per week, which is a league best as they average 25 points per game, but they average just 199 passing yards per game and now have lost their QB Cassel, which means that back up QB Croyle has to organise the offence. Expect this SD defence to be much better here as they allow just 186 passing yards (ranked 1st) and 95 rushing yards (ranked 5th), so the Chargers look better on both sides of the ball here.

[equinoxx]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks The Giants/Vikings game that was postponed until Monday night may now have to be played in a new outdoor stadium in Minneapolis as the Metro Dome roof has been damaged due to the snow. If you can find any bookies that haven't taken this game off the board yet, a play may be to go for the UNDER 43. EDIT - It's also looking likely that the game may be played in New Orleans (dome), Detroit (dome) or even the Giants' Meadowlands Stadium (outdoor) so I just wanted to let you all know before you decide to follow me.

[Cramer]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Sport NFL Event Green Bay @ Detroit Selection Lay Detroit (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 12/12/2010 Bookmaker/Price Totesport @ 3.68 Reasoning Detroit are awful, and struggling for a quarterback with Hill and Stafford out. They've lost the last 5 games including 5 at home. Green bay have an excellent record at Detroit and are playing well. Green Bay have won 5 of the last 6. They are 8-4 overall and need to beat bad teams like this to ensure a playoff berth. Should be a comfortable road win.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks New England @ Chicago Under 36 @ 2.22 Pinnacle I've had quite a lot of success in the past betting on the weather to keep the totals low, and in this case the signs are pretty good. 50mph winds and driving snow with -4 (Fahrenheit) temperatures suggests to me this is a must play. For those happy to move things in their favour, Bet365 have alternative totals markets and you can get under 40 @ 1.58 which is a steal imo. Elsewhere there are swirling winds in New York (Miami @ NY Jets) and (Tampa Bay @) Washington and rain in (Oakland @) Jacksonville. All which could be good unders bets.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Sport NFL Event Green Bay @ Detroit Selection Lay Detroit (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 12/12/2010 Bookmaker/Price Totesport @ 3.68 Reasoning Detroit are awful, and struggling for a quarterback with Hill and Stafford out. They've lost the last 5 games including 5 at home. Green bay have an excellent record at Detroit and are playing well. Green Bay have won 5 of the last 6. They are 8-4 overall and need to beat bad teams like this to ensure a playoff berth. Should be a comfortable road win.

Cramer, apologies if I'm mistaken, but aren't those odds (3.68) for Detroit to win? If you're laying them shouldn't you post your liability? I don't lay myself so don't know, but your post reads to me as though you're getting 3.68 for laying Detroit, which is wrong. You'd get 3.68 for laying Green Bay here, wouldn't you? Right now Detroit (to win) are 3.2 and Green Bay (to win) are 1.36. How I see it if you're laying Detroit you'd only be getting around 1.36

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

The Giants/Vikings game that was postponed until Monday night may now have to be played in a new outdoor stadium in Minneapolis as the Metro Dome roof has been damaged due to the snow. If you can find any bookies that haven't taken this game off the board yet, a play may be to go for the UNDER 43. EDIT - It's also looking likely that the game may be played in New Orleans (dome), Detroit (dome) or even the Giants' Meadowlands Stadium (outdoor) so I just wanted to let you all know before you decide to follow me.

I made some calls yesterday to make sure my under 43 was still standing despite the time change...(same with Eli under @ 365), and the answer was "yes" in both cases. I know I've been burnt before with books cancelling bets because of a time/location change... ...but yeah, guessing that has probably changed again now. :wall

[Cramer]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks

Cramer, apologies if I'm mistaken, but aren't those odds (3.68) for Detroit to win? If you're laying them shouldn't you post your liability? I don't lay myself so don't know, but your post reads to me as though you're getting 3.68 for laying Detroit, which is wrong. You'd get 3.68 for laying Green Bay here, wouldn't you? Right now Detroit (to win) are 3.2 and Green Bay (to win) are 1.36. How I see it if you're laying Detroit you'd only be getting around 1.36

Hi Valiant. If you were laying Detroit, you could lay at around 3.85 - 3.90 on Betfair. If you choose to say the price you are actually laying at, or the odds you are effectively getting as a return, is usually just a personal preference. In any case, I am posting like this as per the rules on sports-punter.com which I why I am also saying I'm laying at a bookmaker, which is of course weird:ok

[Cramer]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks Think you jinxed me Valient:lol

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fourteen Picks for the record its in Detroit. Which is a disadvantage to the Vikings. Tickets are being given away for free for the game by the stadium. Lions fans obviously hate Favre and the Vikings . This will for sure be a road game for them