Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I'm hitting the Sportingbet specials too. 3pts No six to be hit on Day 1 7/5 Sportingbet It seems I repeat myself every time there's a cricket match at the MCG but these boundaries are absolutely massive. If they are not the biggest in world cricket then they are right up there. The curator says the wicket is going to be a bit sluggish on the opening day too which won't help six hitting. In England's first innings at Perth we didn't hit a single six on shorter boundaries so the likelihood of England hitting one is slim. For Australia, only 3 men are in any form whatsoever and one of them - Hussey - doesn't have a good record. England's attack is solid and with Australia likely to go in with 4 seamers it won't be easy to hit those for 6 here. Given the size of the boundaries and the tacky wicket I'll happily take this price on no 6 being scored on the opening day.

[liveforever31]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Top Australian Batsman (1st Inns) - Hussey @ 9/2 Will Hill - 2pts A very generous price for the man in form, so not much of an explanation needed really. Question marks loom over Hughes, Ponting, Clarke and Smith, and while all could well easily top score, all could quite easily go cheaply. Hussey hasn't looked like getting out cheaply all series, and I am hoping he does today, but if not then at least I have this cover at a very nice price. Top Australian Bowler (1st Inns) - Harris @ 3/1 Betfred - 3pts I'm sitting myself in the camp that says Johnson's performance in the last test was the exception, and in less bowler friendly conditions away from the breeze of Perth, he may find his late movement more tricky to obtain, thus making his bowling very much less of a threat. Harris has been consistent all series, and 3/1 is very nice for him to get most wickets. Again, no suprise if Johnson does turn up and continue his form, but at 3/1 I'm willing to oppose and take Harris, who has been by far and away the Australian's most lethal bowler. Top England Bowler (1st Inns) - Tremlett @ 7/2 Betfred - 0.5pts Feel he was the pick of our bowlers at Perth, but keeping stakes low as there may not be as much bounce here for this test. However, he always looked threatening, and I think he will back himself to see off Hughes to get him rolling, and if Jimmy struggles with his niggle and Swann is continued to be nullified by the pitch, then Tremlett seems a good choice at 7/2. England win 4th Test - 5/4 (DRAW NO BET) @ Sportingbet - 4pts Could end up with massive egg on my face here, but I really think Perth will serve as a wake up call to England, and whereas the batting of both teams is fairly even, England are streets ahead IF Johnson returns to his former self. Johnson decides the game, it is as simple as that, but from all my time watching him play against England, he has never produced any sort of consistency, and he notoriously does well at Perth where the ball moves about a bit more. The 3rd test will have toughened England up, and I think they will all now recognise the value of their wicket a bit more. If we were to drop Collingwood and bring a fifth bowler in, this would be a max bet, but I think that is our weak link (cue double-ton) and our stubborness in not moving Bell up the order could cost us. However, I really feel we have the edge over them playing wise, and this isn't the England of old that would go cowering and running for cover. KP will love that 90,000 are baying for his blood, and the Aussies have given all our bowlers the ammo they need with their words about them the past week. Make no mistake, the Aussies are still scared, thats why Siddle and Watson are running their mouths off to try and distrupt us, but I think Flower and Strauss are too clever to let this affect us. Please England, don't let me down here. As Holding said on the Will Hill podcast, in cricket momentum means very little in the match result, as if it did England would have won the series already. We are back to square one, and the better side at the end of the day is England. 5/4 DNB seems nice enough to get involved in.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Pretty decent 1st session all told for me although the Collingwood catch would've been nice. One more in play. 3pts S.Smith 1st Inns Runs - Under 23.5 17/20 William Hill I don't particularly rate Steve Smith as a test match batsman. His technique is up there with the weirdest I've ever seen. From what I've seen he can't play a moving ball and he can't play a short ball. He made runs in Perth but a hell of a lot of them came off the top and inside edge of his bat. The wicket is talking here and this rain and cloud cover is keeping the bowlers well on top. England's bowlers will have had a nice little rest and if they keep to their plans then I'm pretty confident they will get the youngster, who is batting at least one spot if not two too high in this batting order, out before he's made 24.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL This Aussie team are a joke! Perth's pitch really did spoon feed them ... bib and everything....

[RussP]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Immense stuff again in here:notworthy. By my reckoning, 5 out of 6 tips came in on Day 1....and that was the maximum possible with 2 conflicting bets. Just brilliant, and looking very good for a few more to come in, including England to win and Anderson's performance:clap

[Spooner]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

I'm hitting the Sportingbet specials too. 3pts No six to be hit on Day 1 7/5 Sportingbet It seems I repeat myself every time there's a cricket match at the MCG but these boundaries are absolutely massive. If they are not the biggest in world cricket then they are right up there. The curator says the wicket is going to be a bit sluggish on the opening day too which won't help six hitting. In England's first innings at Perth we didn't hit a single six on shorter boundaries so the likelihood of England hitting one is slim. For Australia, only 3 men are in any form whatsoever and one of them - Hussey - doesn't have a good record. England's attack is solid and with Australia likely to go in with 4 seamers it won't be easy to hit those for 6 here. Given the size of the boundaries and the tacky wicket I'll happily take this price on no 6 being scored on the opening day.

Yeah well done guys. The above was a cracking call, sportingbet must hate you Kev. :lol

[liveforever31]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 0.5 pts - England Top Bat (1st Inns) - Pietersen @ 12/1 (Will Hill) At that price, I have to have a little nibble or I will be kicking myself if it comes in. There is every chance in the world that Cook or Strauss will go on and make the massive century that secures them this market, but I always fear the wounded Aussie animal. They will have had a right royal erm... shoeing for want of more aggressive language, and it wouldn't suprise me if they come out all guns blazing, snarling away and really trying to apply the early pressure. The Ashes could almost be decided in the first morning session, the Aussies simply cannot afford to let our openers get away. So I would be in no way suprised to see them sneak a couple of wickets out through nothing else but due to the fact they know they have to. However, this is all well and good, but this game seems almost set up for KP's ego, as I've already said he will love the fact that the Aussies are on the ropes and will be out to get him, and that 80-90,000 Aussie fans will be baying for his blood. I'm not going mad with the stakes, but it seems a tempting price for a man who could quite easily score another double-ton if he gets in and bats with the same mix of patience and aggression as he did in the 2nd test. I seem to have called Johnson's impact on the game right, and again who knows what he will bring to the game on day 2, but if he is ineffective again, then KP only has to worry about seeing Harris off to set himself up for another biggie.

[TheRat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I have just been looking and it is a random bet but with 888sport 9/1 for the first score to be 3. With the large boundaries and the players getting in it could easily be a mis-timed shot and I think this is overpriced and worth a small amount. Also Enlgland innings over 478.5 at 1.83 and 1st wicket over 195.5 I have taken. The wicket seems to be better and with Strauss and Cook looking good yesterday and the Ozzie bowling attack looking poor I think we could get a few here to set up an innings win.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 One for me going into day 2. 6pts England to win by an innings 8/11 Blue Square This looks a solid bet to me. England are all over Australia in this match at the minute and while we need to remember that we're only 59 ahead, it's perfectly possible with the time that's left in this match that England could lead by 500 in this match before asking Australia to bat again. There is also every chance that England are bowled out for only 350 and a lead of 250 but I still don't think Australia are favourites to make us bat again from there. This isn't a test match lineup Australia are offering here. One of the openers is awful, the other is makeshift and has flaws, the captain and vice captain need to hit the sales in the hope of buying a cheap run while Smith at 6 wouldn't even be batting at 6 in my club team. If Hussey goes cheaply you would have to think Australia will fold again. England begin day 2 - amazingly only day 2 - 59 ahead with a ball that's 44 overs old. I don't think it's going to reverse much with the lush outfield here and although there's a bit of swing around, all these batsmen have shown they know where their off stump is. In many ways, Bresnan playing helps this bet too as he can add runs to pull away from Australia. In effect, we're taking 8/11 on England in a one innings match in which we are effectively 59/0. England are going to get the better of the conditions in terms of the wicket and have by far the more superior batting lineup and bowling attack. I really do think England win this by an innings from here and at 8/11 I'm on.

[ani_lfc]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 One for me.... 4 points England to score over 490 Runs @ 2.2 Sportingbet With England currently on 157 for no reply theres no way in hell we cant get another 333 runs from Struass, Cook, Trott, Pieterson, Collingwood, Bell, Prior, Swann & Bresnan.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Another one for me. 3pts P.Siddle Top Australia Bowler (1st Inns Only) Evs Boylesports Peter Siddle is 2up on everyone else in this bowling attack and to be fair, from what I've seen this morning, is the only one looks even remotely threatening with the ball. Ricky Ponting used him first up this morning and that may not be a co-incidence. I know there's a lunch break in between but Ben Hilfenhaus, a usual new ball bowler, has bowled a long spell up to lunch. It could just be that when the new ball arrives in 4 overs time that Siddle is given it to see if he can make more in roads. On the evidence of what's been seen so far I'm really surprised this isn't 1/2 or even 1/3. If England put together another 100 partnership at any stage in this innings there's a chance Australia won't take all 10 wickets so to have a two wicket head start is a massive advantage. With Boylesports, if Siddle ties with anyone else they pay out on the bowler who concedes the fewer runs. So far Siddle is the most economical of the Aussie bowlers so that's on his side too. With all that in mind I'll take the Victorian paceman on his home ground in this 1st innings.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Sportingbet's daily specials seem to have vanished :( They must have been losing too much from them. It's been a pretty good test as far as tipping goes in this thread and money wise for me. Anderson needs 1 wicket or 11 runs and I'm sorted. Not sure how Day 4 will go. Either way I'd take anything like Under 85 runs in a Session Bet for this morning. This MCG ground is fxcking massive and with Englands inconsistent tail following soon I think Unders is a cert. Can't see that Market around anywhere though, if anyone can point me in the direction of one I'll be grateful. Good Luck all :hope

[Spooner]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Betfair have markets for Morning Session Runs, go onto their Day Three Markets. They offer markets for every 10 runs scored, 90 Runs or more have been matched @ 1.80 although not much liquidity at the moment.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Bit late, apologies. 3pts Day 3 Session 1 Runs - Under 94 11/10 Stan James I think England will bat sensibly in this 1st innings before setting up a push after lunch. Australia will slow the session right down. I'd be surprised if we see more than 24 overs in this session so we would need almost 4 an over to cover it. Boundaries here are big so runs can't naturally come very quickly. Trott isn't the quickest scorer and both not out batsmen have to play themselves in again. Obviously if England are bowled out in this session it takes 10 minutes out of the session. I don't think they will be though. The wicket looks good for batting and these two should be ok. Australia will slow the over rate right down. England won't push it too much in hot conditions, we'll tick over and set up a slog after lunch. Hopefully Johnson doesn't get too many overs and if so I think the total for this 2hr session will stay under 94.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Jesus, can't believe you got 11/10 on that. Might have to open a Stan James account, I would've gone in moderately heavy. Can't believe you got 8/11 on an innings victory yesterday too. Absolut madness, there's effectively no way England can NOT win this by an innings. Think we're all gonna be in some nice profit come the end of this test.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I've heard Beefy say a few times Swann will have a big part to play in the 4th innings... Any value with Boyles top Eng bowler with Swann 7/4? Cheers

[liveforever31]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Don't know if the market is still there, but at Will Hill that bet is 9/4, just haven't had time to do my write up yet, so it is below. 2pts - England Top Bowler (2nd Inns) - Swann @ 9/4 Will Hill England will have lots of runs to play with, so after the new ball expect attacking fields for Swann, and the fast bowlers rotating from the other end. Warne reckons the pitch will spin, so this coupled with the attack Swann will be able to bring to the Aussies should make him a prime candidate for top bowler. It all depends on if the Aussies actually decide to offer some resistance to the new ball this time around, which I think they will as they cannot afford to let a repeat of the 1st innings to happen for the sake of many of their careers.

[liveforever31]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It isn't on oddschecker now so looks like Hills have pulled it, sorry I didn't get my write up on earlier to alert the value. As for the 7/4, well I do think Swann will be the top wicket taker in the second innings, so in that sense it should still be a good bet!! However, on the flip side, Tremlett has looked very threatening these past two tests, Jimmy was flawless, and Bresnan if it swings will be a threat again. In that sense, if the opening bowlers take out the first 3/4 wickets quickly, I guess that will make it harder for Swann to top this market. I made the bet because of the 9/4 on offer as I thought it was priced up wrong, and that I actually thought Swann should have been the favourite, however if he was favourite I'm not sure whether I would want to get involved due to the potential threat of our other bowlers at bigger prices (if that makes any sort of sense!!!). Personally, I wouldn't be backing him at 7/4, but I do think he is the strongest candidate to win the market. Not much help I know, but if you do get involved in the bet I still think you'll be in with a great shout, just not sure whether 7/4 is good value considering the performances of our other bowlers. Don't let me put you off backing it though, because I bleeding have backed it (albeit at a higher value).

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It's not showing on oddschecker (only Boyles odds on show?) but i did get 5/2 with Willhill :ok Cheers for the reply though, risk-reward isn't it! I may have let it go at 7/4 but glad to chance my money at 5/2!

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It's still there. 5/2 with Hills so no need to worry about not getting it up mate.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 What's your view Shat?

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I'm not convinced myself mate. I think someone like Tremlett with his height taking advantage of the indifferent bounce could be tricky. And with him being the last to bowl there's every chance he'll be chasing 2-3 immediately because Hughes is a walking wicket and the next two in can't buy a run.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Hughes is a walking wicket.... Love it! Cheers for the reply :ok Speaking of Hughes... Do we need Katich to play another test for the unders bet to count? And speaking of bets counting... Am I right in thinking Bollinger v Broad is void? 490 up and passed, great call Ani with your overs :clap

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

Hughes is a walking wicket.... Love it! Cheers for the reply :ok Speaking of Hughes... Do we need Katich to play another test for the unders bet to count? And speaking of bets counting... Am I right in thinking Bollinger v Broad is void? 490 up and passed, great call Ani with your overs :clap

Yep, need Katich to play one more which is perfectly possible I'd think. And yep, Bollinger vs Broad is void. Good shout ani and overs backers :clap.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I am actually in bits that I didn't get to find a Session Runs Market prior to the start of todays play because that session went exactly how I bloody called it. No joke I would've probably gone in with 7 or 8pts and gone to bed nursing a fxcking semi. Anyway, It shall be interesting to see how long Australia last here and it should make some great viewing. I have all but stopped doing in-play betting as I find sometimes it can be very costly but one market that I would be interested in taking going into Australia's second innings is a Wicket to Fall within 9.5 overs @ 5/6 with Bet365. I had a punt on it once in the last test and it didn't come to fruition however it has come in consistently at the beginning of most Australia innnings since the start of the series. I am not going to back it with real money but it is something I would seriously consider if I were to. GL to all Swann backers too.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 2 for me in the lunch break. 3pts P.Hughes 2nd Inns Runs - Under 26.5 - 17/20 William Hill I've said most of what needs saying about this bet already in the series. Philip Hughes is out of his depth here and even though this wicket looks like it's playing ok now, his technique isn't ok and all series long I've felt it's just a matter of time until Tremlett pins him. Hughes has scores of 2, 12 and 16 in the series so far and while that's going the right way, I don't think he is. He's under massive pressure here for me, effectively playing for his career again with Katich reckoning he'll be fit for Sydney. He needs a score but England have been all over him all summer and I think they'll continue that in this innings. 1pt Test Match End - Days 1,2 or 3 8/1 Sportingbet This price is just too big for me. Sure the pitch looks like it's playing well and Australia should bat out the rest of the day but this wouldn't be the 1st pitch that's played well with Australia's bowlers trundling on it and then totally changing when England's bowlers get on it. Even on a good deck, Australia are playing with 2 batsmen, 3 at most, who are in any sort of form. There's 65 overs left in the day's play today and if we're close to wrapping it up then the extra half an hour - 8 overs, can be taken so we could have 73 overs to bowl Australia out in. If they go 4 down fairly early England will be all over em like German measles. It shouldn't happen but at 8/1 I'll pay to see if England can wrap this match up today with more overs left today than Australia batted first time around plus another 30.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Final bet of this test for me. 3pts S.Smith 2nd Inns Runs - Under 26.5 17/20 William Hill As with 1st innings. Technically a shambles, batting 2 places too high and massive pressure to put a score on now. Wickets could go at the other end. If he covers this it won't be without a lot of luck. I'm on the under at this line.

[Spooner]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 4pts 7th Wicket to Fall Under 195.5 Runs @ 5/6 Sportingbet Australia 169/6 at close. Only one way this match is going just a matter of time how long England take to pick the 4 wickets up, I don't think it will take long at all and and would have this line lower, Australia will need to score 27 runs before losing a man for this ball to fail and whilst that doesn't seem alot we've seen already that runs are hard to come by, massive boundaries so your fours turn into 3's. They averaged 2.28 runs per over in 1st innings and 2.56 currently in this so we should get 10-11 overs before the 196 is achieved and in that time I'd fancy England to take at least 1 wicket.

[frankgallagher]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

4pts 7th Wicket to Fall Under 195.5 Runs @ 5/6 Sportingbet Australia 169/6 at close. Only one way this match is going just a matter of time how long England take to pick the 4 wickets up, I don't think it will take long at all and and would have this line lower, Australia will need to score 27 runs before losing a man for this ball to fail and whilst that doesn't seem alot we've seen already that runs are hard to come by, massive boundaries so your fours turn into 3's. They averaged 2.28 runs per over in 1st innings and 2.56 currently in this so we should get 10-11 overs before the 196 is achieved and in that time I'd fancy England to take at least 1 wicket.

Really like this. Bet 365 go over/under 184.5 on this market. Nice wee extra 11 runs with sporting bet

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It's been a really good test match for me so far and I wasn't going to bet in it again but this line is just too high. 6pts Australia 2nd Inns Runs - Under 250.5 7/10 Sportingbet England have got this match in complete control. Australia are 169/6 which is effectively 7 because Ryan Harris won't be batting in this match. Such is the dominance that England have over this Australia side at the moment that this won't take long to wrap up. So far in the 6 innings Australia have had in the series the last 3 wickets have put on 23, 38, 18, 79, 33 and 21. Only the 79, which was the 1st innings in Perth where conditions never suited England, has come close to the 82 Australia need to scupper this bet. In Adelaide's 2nd innings when the match was in a similar situation with it only being a matter of time when England wrapped up the match, the final 3 wickets added 18. They'll probably add more here but I don't think they are going to add 82. I think there's enough in the wicket at the minute with the old ball reversing nicely but if England are struggling there's a new ball due in 14 overs time. To make 82 Australia will need 26-27 overs which will mean batting until lunch. I don't see that happening with the new ball due before then. In places, it's 1/3 England win this in the 1st session so at over double the price I'll take the under here.