Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

[kevshat]

Ok it's getting ever closer :nana. Now that there's no more international cricket between now and the Ashes, it's time to start the thread. Australia host England over what I'm sure will be 5 extremely hard fought test matches, all of which is live on Sky in the UK. The Ashes itself begins on the 24th November but the final warm up match is live on Sky from next Tuesday (16th) so we'll get the thread going now with news and anticipation, and more importantly betting potential beginning to increase. This is going to be a superb series :cow. Tour schedule:

Thu Nov 11 - Sat Nov 13 23:30 GMT (prev day) | 10:00 local 23:30 GMT -1d	South Australia v England XI Adelaide Oval	16 - 23° C Forecast Partly Cloudy Click here for 10-day-Forecast
Wed Nov 17 - Sat Nov 20 23:30 GMT (prev day) | 10:30 local 23:30 GMT -1d	Australia A v England XI Bellerive Oval, Hobart	N/A
Thu Nov 25 - Mon Nov 29 00:00 GMT | 10:00 local 00:00 GMT	1st Test - Australia v England Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, Brisbane	N/A
Fri Dec 3 - Tue Dec 7 00:00 GMT | 10:30 local 00:00 GMT	2nd Test - Australia v England Adelaide Oval	N/A
Fri Dec 10 - Sun Dec 12 00:00 GMT | 11:00 local 00:00 GMT	Victoria v England XI Melbourne Cricket Ground	N/A
Thu Dec 16 - Mon Dec 20 02:30 GMT | 10:30 local 02:30 GMT	3rd Test - Australia v England Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth	N/A
Sun Dec 26 - Thu Dec 30 23:30 GMT (prev day) | 10:30 local 23:30 GMT -1d	4th Test - Australia v England Melbourne Cricket Ground	N/A
Mon Jan 3 - Fri Jan 7 23:30 GMT (prev day) | 10:30 local 23:30 GMT -1d	5th Test - Australia v England Sydney Cricket Ground	N/A

[meatman]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Bring it on! :nana

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Mr. Shat you tease!

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

Mr. Shat you tease!

Good things come to those who wait ;).

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I've already had a say on this at sports-punter. There's still 3.25 out there for England to win the series, which is value in itself IMO. Combining that with some 6.40 Betfair the draw creates a bet of 2.12 for England to retain the Ashes, which is what I've done. Just need to act sad when I'm happy, now ;).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Shane Watson Man of the Series @ 13 Bet365 Seriously cannot work this price out. Watson has really come of age as a batsman in the past couple of years, averaging 57 in the last season (09/10) whilst picking up 13 wickets. Recent media releases have also hinted at Watson taking a larger role in the bowling attack, and his comments about his bowling form are also quite positive, hinting that he can now swing the ball at faster speeds. What I also like is that now Flintoff is absent he's the only real all-rounder in a series where I think neither team will dominate. Aside from maybe Swann, I don't think any bowler in this series is truly world class, and I can't see anyone really dominating with the ball and demanding to be named Player of the Series. On the batting side, I don't think any one player looks set to dominate the series. Both sides most talented batsman, arguably Ponting and Pietersen, are well down on form and not the same players they were last Ashes. Certainly they don't look like it anyway. Of course, a bowler or batsman could have a stellar series, announce their arrival on the world stage and win this honour, but in a series where I think neither side will dominate and both teams are fairly even, I want my money on the genuine all rounder who, in this last 10 matches, has 1021 runs @ 53 and 23 wickets at 22.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 My first outright on the series. Price is going quite quickly now so need to get on while it's above fair. 6pts England to win The Ashes 2/1 Blue Square I really like England in this series. I know our record in Australia is poor but I've been really impressed first of all by the squad which has been names and secondly by the preparation. Not only have we had warm up matches, and good competitive warm up matches but we've taken them seriously. It's a throwback to the 80's and how tours used to be and it's good to see. If we contrast that to our opponents well they've got all sorts of problems coming into this series and you would imagine that will enable England to hit the ground running on a ground which usually isn't good for us but I've a feeling could be perfect for us this year. I'm not going to write Australia off and say they've no chance etc etc but equally I think they are a bit short or England a bit big call it what you will. I like the make up of England's batting lineup which has all got runs in the warmup matches and of the two bowling attacks I much prefer England's. I heard Dennis Lillee the other week say Australia's bowling attack was better than England's. I'm sorry Dennis ol chap but if you truly believe that you've had one too many of the ol amber nectars sunshine. This is the worst Australian bowling attack I've ever seen. It's awful. When Douglas Bollinger is being relied on to lead it you've got issues. Serious issues. Contrast that to England who have 5 seamers in the squad on top of their game. As with the series over in England last summer, I think both sides will struggle to take 20 wickets throughout the series but England just have the edge with Swann a standout in either bowling attack and will go well out here. Normally Australia go into an Ashes series settled and confident. They are the exact opposite this year. They have form and fitness issues. In fact, even a week before the 1st test they have injury concerns over Michael Clarke, Doug Bollinger and Simon Katich. It's been a good while since I've seen Australia so unsettled, a feeling confirmed by the Aussies if you like with their selector changes recently. England, under Strauss and Flower, are becoming a ruthless unit who are enjoying winning and are becoming very successful. They've made all the right noises so far. They are confident in their ability but not big headed a la McGrath et al of years gone by. I really do think this is England's big chance. I've not seen an England team this focused for a long while and while Australia go from mini crisis to mini crisis, England are just going about their business, with no injuries or form worries and when the battles are done I think England will have won the war.

[gregprowt]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I dont post much, but I dont get the price on the Aussies for this, I had a good few bets when they were long odds on, yes England won the ashes last time, but how lucky were we, we had about 3-4 really good sessions of the whole series and that got us home (and watching it all back I still dont know how) Aussies are nearly 11-10 on betfair and I just cant have this they are now rubbish, they will be so up for this not gone in again yet as the price seems to drift everyday and I think I will still wait, probably cover the draw as a saver dont get me wrong I would love to see England win on Aussie turf (my earliest memories of cricket are watching in the early hours in the 80s and Chris Broads magnificent stance, oh the good old days when on cheap TV!!)

[Spooner]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 1st Test 3pts England to win 1st Test @ 2/1 Bet365 Really like England in this series. Not often we've gone down under with a chance like this, you can never rule Australia out but its clear this team isn't as strong as the teams they've rolled out in the past. I've always looked up to the Australian players from a young age but I can't say I'm doing that with this team, yes they still have quality players but this team is beatable for sure. England have had good preparation for the 1st test, winning a couple of warm up matches. The squad looks full of confidence and I think they can get after this Australian team and make their mark early for the series. Taking England to take a 1-0 lead in the opener. Top England Batsmen (1st Innings Only) 0.5pts S.Broad 50/1 Paddy Power 0.5pts G.Swann 66/1 Bet365 This is kind of a saver bet on my outright of England to win the 1st test, might seem weird to some but let me explain. England, as a country, are well known for collapsing in any sport and if the Aussies do get us rattled early doors then there is every chance one of the lower order will have to step up to the mark. Now Broad & Swann are perfect candidates to step in, they've both shown useful form with the bat in the past. If we look since they've been in Australia, they met Western Australia first up and it was Broad and Swann that steadied the ship taking us from 159/8 to 223/8, which we declared at, now they didn't top score, but they was very close to top scoring. We wouldn't of declared if it wasn't a practise match and every chance one of them would of top scored. I was just looking back at test matches this year, we was away to South Africa at the start of the year and it was Swann who chipped in with an 85 in the 1st test to top score with the bat, I'm sure there has been other occasions that these two have put in strong partnerships. Of course with this bet you need the top order to collapse, I don't want that to happen for my outright but I just feel with England anything is possible at times and these prices look big considering everyone should know these two can bat now.

[Wales08]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Ok two so far for me for the series. 4 pts Double chance - Drawn Series-England - 10/11 - Bodog 3pts England to win the Ashes 7/4 - Bet365 Everything is fallen into place for England at the moment with wins in warm ups (scoring well and wickets) and preparation has been brillaint. No injuries for them to worry about and abundance of quality running throughout the squad. Aussies, well, are the complete opposite! Struggling with loses in India, injuries and players way out of form. The big thing that takes it for me is that their bowling attack looks very weak and preparation has been limited for some. Home advantage and knowledge will help them but i see England retaining the Ashes but i'll take the draw as a fallback with my England outright bet.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Gonna hit the correct score market. Only small but I think these are both overpriced. 1pt England to win The Ashes 4-0 40/1 Totesport 1pt England to win The Ashes 4-1 33/1 Totesport As I said above, I'm really hot on England's chances in this series. I don't think we'll see too many draws. I think the series will be played in bowler friendly conditions and that's where I see England having a major advantage. I just can't have this Australia bowling attack. It's crap. I'm not convinced by Ponting as a captain either. I never have been and probably never will be. Sure he's got a good record but if I had Warne and McGrath at my disposal I'd fancy my chances of a good record too. Since Warne and McGrath have retired Australia have looked normal and that's no huge surprise. I don't believe Ponting has the ability to turn a match around when it's going against him. He had no answer to the likes of Swann and Broad when they were teeing off over here last summer and he couldn't even shift Monty and Anderson at times either. I look at this bowling attack and as an Englishman there's nothing to fear. Hilfenhaus can move it but English batsmen play bowlers who can move it all the time. Bollinger's angle is his strength and that's it really. As for the spin well it's an insult to the likes of Warne and Macgill this lot. Smith's around arguably because he can bat as much as he can bowl and Doherty would never have got a look in with his record. You've got to think he's there for KP rather than his record. England have a perfect bowling attack. It covers all angles and they are fresh after missing Hobart. In Graeme Swann we have the key man but on seamer friendly wickets the likes of Broad and Finn will thrive. As I say, I don't expect many draws. As well as having a shit bowling attack, Australia have major problems with their batting. Most of it is out of form or carrying injuries and part of the pressure they feel is because if they do fail they can no longer rely on McGrath and Warne to skittle the opposition and get the batsmen out of trouble. England's batsmen have all found runs on this tour so I expect England to win the series and I really do like the ruthless streak to this England outfit. I think we can go there and dominate the majority of the test matches and for the reason I'm happy to take the 4-0 and 4-1 scorelines. I really do think this bowling attack has the Aussies number and I would not be at all surprised if Australia crack under the serious pressure which is mounting on them. This really could be England's greatest ever Ashes victory.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 If anyone else following Kev, gets the same 'Totesport is currently unavailable' as I did, Coral also go 40's on 4-0 and Boyles go 33's on 4-1 :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 It's a little showery in Brisbane and I feel the 2.50 England DNB @ Bet365 is a real good option.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

If anyone else following Kev' date=' gets the same 'Totesport is currently unavailable' as I did, Coral also go 40's on 4-0 and Boyles go 33's on 4-1 :ok[/quote'] Funnily enough, I got that with Coral hence I went to Totesport :lol. What's the forecast like for the match days, Ash? If it's not too bad then I'd be inclined to ignore the draw completely and just be on England. I think over 5 days a result is almost a certainty given the last first class match at The Gabba? Crouchie - you're Brisbane based aren't you? Any clues on the forecast ;).

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 According to this it's looking OK although the forecast has chopped & changed a lot.

WED		Showers Early. Mostly Sunny. Mild. Humid.	31 km/h E	1mm (35%)	71%	19	26
THU		Mostly Sunny. Mild. Breezy.	26 km/h E	-	62%	19	26
FRI		Mostly Sunny. Mild.	24 km/h E	-	61%	20	26
SAT		Partly Cloudy. Mild.	22 km/h E	-	61%	19	26
SUN		Mostly Sunny. Mild.	12 km/h E	-	57%	17	27
MON		Light Rain Early. Mostly Sunny. Mild.	11 km/h E	1mm (30%)	58%	18	27

You guys are aware Michael Clarke has a back injury and hasn't trained of late, aren't you?

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

It's a little showery in Brisbane and I feel the 2.50 England DNB @ Bet365 is a real good option.

This has since come in to 2.25 on Bet365. I really can't look past England in this one. Going in with 5pts before it comes down even further.

[Henry Jr]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Hmmmm.....

[ashestoashes]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I'm backing england. All the form says we should win. Did anyone read in the Metro today about the guy who has put £250k on england to win the series with ladbrokes? Seemed to get poor value as was only standing to win 185k. I'm going to put my bets on with Betfair so can enter this https://winningruns.betfair.com/ seems like a good competition to me. Strauss Hussey Pieterson Broard for me in the first test.

[Wales08]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 One for the first test. Top England Bowler - J Anderson 11/4 - Bet365 Im thinking of going for Anderson as Series best bowler and i still may do but for now im going to take this early. Anderson is probably the best swing bowler in the world at the moment and playing down under with the Kook on this pitch too i fancy him to pick a few up here. I can see Strauss starting with Anderson straight away with the new ball and forecast seems to be indicating overcast conditions too which will suit him here so il take Anderson to start the series well.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 I've honed in on 1 angle, riding 2 players across 6 bets.. Angle: With the pitch expected to offer a lot of assistance to fast bowlers there is surely an increased likelihood that 40 wickets will fall in the test, and also that the quicks will take the majority of them. If this happens, then there will also be a need for the lower order to contribute to the innings, or even better still, have to resurrect it. As such, I consider the following 6 plays to offer good value for this particular angle. Mitchell Johnson to be 2pts Aus 1st Innings Hi Bat @ 51 Sportingbet 5pts Man of the Match @ 15 Sportingbet 10pts Player Performance Over 105.5pts @ 1.90 Sportsbet (1pt per run, 20pts per wicket, 10pts per catch): This is Johnson's true home pitch. He has 17 wickets here in 3 tests, could easily use the pitch assistance to take the 6 wickets required. He is also a good batting contributor, having a test century to his name. Made a ton in his last first class dig, as well as taking 6 wickets in the game. This line should definitely be over 120 IMO. Stuart Broad to be 2.5pts Eng 1st Innings Hi Bat @ 61 Sportingbet 4.5pts Man of the Match @ 16 Sportingbet 10pts Player Performance Over 90.5pts @ 1.90 Sportsbet (1pt per run, 20pts per wicket, 10pts per catch): Broad is basically the Johnson of England. He's not got the same bowling talent but against Australia's batting line up that shouldn't matter too much. He got a five-for in his last 2 Ashes tests in 2009 and also made a solid contribution with the bat. He averages 28 in test match cricket and realistically 4 wickets will secure this bet, and even 3 should be enough. Given the pitch is likely to help the quicks I'm more than happy to take this. **For the sake of calculating performance for this series, Total stake on Shane Watson for Player of the Series is 31.3, average odds are 11.68.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Another outright for me. Will be adding more as we go in the lead up to the 1st test and will obviously come back with 1st test bets before the off. This is likely to be the biggest bet of the series in terms of outrights although I must admit I'm still sifting through the many markets there are. 7pts I.Bell to beat M.Hussey - Series Match Bet 5/6 Totesport First of all I should point out that even though this bet and price is available at Paddy Power, make sure you use Totesport because both players only have to play 1 test for the bet to count with them rather than at least 3 with Paddy Power. And it's that which forms the basis of this bet. I don't expect Michael Hussey to last the whole of this series. He's under immense pressure with younger players queueing up for his spot. If he doesn't score in the 1st couple of tests he may not see his home ground of Perth in the 3rd test. One thing we can be sure of is barring injury, Ian Bell will play all 5 test matches and what's more, he goes into those tests in really good form after his 192 against the supposed next best Aussie attack last week. Michael Hussey hit a ton in his latest Sheffield Shield match but with all due respect this England side will be a lot tougher to face. In fact, even if both do play 5 tests I'd fancy Bell to score the most runs. He's playing really well and the problems he had with Warne and McGrath are irrelevant in this series because Australia have nothing like that quality in their attack anymore. As I say, I don't see Hussey playing the entire 5 tests. I think he'll be dropped before then and if that happens Ian Bell will comfortably outscore him. It's a big bet but for good reason so I'm happy to take Bell to outscore the ex-Durham man here.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Can't find any match bets?!?!?

[ShanAce]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 same :\

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Yeah looks like the heavy hitters have been on the ball. Looks like they've pulled the market down. 1 more outright. 1pt ew B.Haddin Top Australia Series Batsman 18/1 Skybet (1/4 1,2,3) Brad Haddin looks a big price to me here. He's a solid batsman and unlike the majority of those above him in the batting order he's in fair enough nick. He was one of few to look ok in the one day series with Sri Lanka and he's also looked in decent enough nick for NSW in the domestic season. What I like about Haddin is his style. Yes he's a little bit streaky but if he comes in with Australia in trouble he'll look to take the attack to the English bowlers regardless. I think that style could work in this series if as it's expected, it's a bowler friendly series. I'd rather someone with that style than someone who looks to survive because eventually one will have your name on it in those conditions. Haddin's got previous against England anyway. He was the 5th top scorer over here last year and that was despite missing a test. Barring injury I think he'll play the whole series here and if there's a late injury or a change in style for Australia he could even find himself batting 6. He might also be pushed up the order if Australia want to push for a declaration. Anyone could win this market with none of the main protagonists in much form but at 18/1 I'll have a small investment in the wicket keeper to top score through the series for Australia.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Added 5pts to both Broad and Johnson Player performance over bets.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Any Brisbane folk, what was the weather like on Wednesday? Ta :ok.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Rained early morning, dried up a bit in the day, just had another light shower. Rain certainly wasn't heavy, but by the same token there wasn't too much sun to bake the pitch.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Given the pitch and weather variables, I feel these two bets offer good value. 8pts England to win toss and bowl @ 7 Sportingbet UK 4pts Australia to win toss and bowl @ 13 Sportingbet UK Really can't expand on this one much more. The pitch is likely to offer assistance to the bowlers and I feel both captains must strongly considering taking the new ball if they win the toss. The odds reflect that this eventuality (bowling first) is rather slim, which doesn't line up with the media talk and logical conclusions that bowling first is a very viable and realistic outcome.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11 Another outright match bet for me. 3pts P.Collingwood to beat M.Clarke 5/4 Paddy Power I'm happy to take this even though Paddy Power require both to play in 3 tests. Now that Michael Clarke has been passed fit to play in this 1st test I'm confident he'll play in at least 3 of them so that shouldn't be an issue. However with these 5 matches being played in a little over 6 weeks it's going to be hard for Michael Clarke's back to play in all 5 I think. Paul Collingwood has no problems on that score. He'll play all 5 matches barring an unforeseen injury and I think he'll go very well. He's scored runs in the warm up matches which is a positive and in only the 2nd match of the series he'll go back to the scene of his 200, 4 years ago which should boost his confidence even further. If England get in trouble he can shoulder the responsibility of getting us out of it so I see no reason why Collingwood won't go well in this series. Michael Clarke hasn't played much since India and if his back does restrict him not only to the matches he can play but his movement in those matches then I think Collingwood can outscore him at a nice price.

[League1_punter]

Re: Cricket: The Ashes 2010/11

Given the pitch and weather variables, I feel these two bets offer good value. 8pts England to win toss and bowl @ 7 Sportingbet UK 4pts Australia to win toss and bowl @ 13 Sportingbet UK Really can't expand on this one much more. The pitch is likely to offer assistance to the bowlers and I feel both captains must strongly considering taking the new ball if they win the toss. The odds reflect that this eventuality (bowling first) is rather slim, which doesn't line up with the media talk and logical conclusions that bowling first is a very viable and realistic outcome.

Hasn't Ponting elected to bat first everytime he has won the toss since Edgbaston in 2005? I dont think either captain would take the risk. If one of them wins the toss and decides to bowl and then loses, they will get absolutely slaughtered. Good luck with your bet, the odds are good but I would be shocked if the toss winner bowls