bairn1 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 15/01/2011 Chesterfield 1 - 0 Stevenage 4.07 -£10.00 +£212.70 Nothing from the midweek fixtures fits the system, but I'll post any from next weekend's that do in a few days time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eliaz Ace Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Can you send the formulas to eliaz1719[at]gmail.com ?:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Can you send the formulas to eliaz1719[at]gmail.com ?:nana E-mail sent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eliaz Ace Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thank you very much;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins System isn't throwing up much at all at the moment. Just one bet for the weekend... 22/01/2011 | Exeter v Walsall | Away Win | 4.5 (Ladbrokes, BlueSquare or PaddyPower) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillwallPunter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Walsall have just appointed a new manager, teams always seem to do well when a new manager comes in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another loss at the weekend... DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 22/01/2011 Exeter 2 - 1 Walsall 4.5 -£10.00 +£202.70 ...and one pick for midweek... 25/01/2011| Cheltenham v Lincoln | Away Win | 4.5 (Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Good winner last night... DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 25/01/2011 Cheltenham 1 - 2 Lincoln 4.5 +£35.00 +£237.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicosonline Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins The show must go on! Well done Bairn1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sixaside Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Excellent results so far Bairn. Just a word of warning though - I wouldn't share my formulas via PM or otherwise. How do you know that you aren't giving your edge away to bookies?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Again just the one pick for the weekend, and I should have posted this last night when odds of 4.33 were available!... 30/01/2011 | Ein Frankfurt v Mgladbach | Away Win | 3.8 (Paddy Power or ToteSport) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillWallace Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hey Bairn, following your system for a while and i have to say: great job so far and keep up the good work. Im more or less a quiet reader, but one thing draw my attention. Second time your system pick Mönchengladbach (i have some deeper insight because im from germany) and i wonder how your system pick this team. Of course, if you have a successful system you have to stick with it but in one of your first post you explained a points and power rating and in a pure rational way i cant explain myself how Gladbach ist a value bet?! Plain consideration of points, form and goal difference, Gladbach is the weakest team in the league. Nevertheless, Gladbach had some injury problems and are slightly on an uptrend in last games. Im excited if you could give a few more infos, without telling your secret. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hey Bairn, following your system for a while and i have to say: great job so far and keep up the good work. Im more or less a quiet reader, but one thing draw my attention. Second time your system pick Mönchengladbach (i have some deeper insight because im from germany) and i wonder how your system pick this team. Of course, if you have a successful system you have to stick with it but in one of your first post you explained a points and power rating and in a pure rational way i cant explain myself how Gladbach ist a value bet?! Plain consideration of points, form and goal difference, Gladbach is the weakest team in the league. Nevertheless, Gladbach had some injury problems and are slightly on an uptrend in last games. Im excited if you could give a few more infos, without telling your secret. I'm not really sure how to answer your question without giving much away, and (for reasons mentioned by others earlier in the thread) I don't want to give too much away. I'm not able to p.m. you, but if you send me your e-mail address, I can explain a bit more in an e-mail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillWallace Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I ve mentioned in an other topic, im running a tennis system and i understand it completely if you are more than careful. Perhaps i should add some words to reason my question, im starting to build a portfolio, that contents different betting types/strategies. a) trading b) tennis system c) basketball betting d) following tipsters... ... and to improve my portfolio i want to develop a soccer system. But to be honest, at the moment i have no clue, so i need to get deeper into the material and im reading and reading and try to understand as a first step and if i read your thread i wondered how Gladbach could be two times a play with such facts. So i appreciate a few words... [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I ve mentioned in an other topic, im running a tennis system and i understand it completely if you are more than careful. Perhaps i should add some words to reason my question, im starting to build a portfolio, that contents different betting types/strategies. a) trading b) tennis system c) basketball betting d) following tipsters... ... and to improve my portfolio i want to develop a soccer system. But to be honest, at the moment i have no clue, so i need to get deeper into the material and im reading and reading and try to understand as a first step and if i read your thread i wondered how Gladbach could be two times a play with such facts. So i appreciate a few words... [email protected] E-mail sent. Hope it clears things up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillWallace Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins E-mail sent. Hope it clears things up. Thanks a lot for your fast, detailed and friendly answer. I think there are few hints which can i work with. Still a lot of success with your system!! WillWallace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillwallPunter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 0-1 to Borussia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillwallPunter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 0-1 full time. Another outstanding pick from Bairn1, keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another great result... DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 30/01/2011 Ein Frankfurt 0 - 1 Mgladbach 3.8 +£28.00 +£265.70 Lots of midweek fixtures, but nothing that fits in with the system unfortunately, so we'll have to wait a bit longer to see if we can keep the good run going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Three picks for Saturday... 05/02/2011 | Man City v West Brom | Away Win | 9 (Betfred) 05/02/2011 | Nottm Forest v Watford | Away Win | 4.53 (Pinnacle) 05/02/2011 | Chesterfield v Aldershot | Away Win | 5 (General) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 05/02/2011 Man City 3 - 0 West Brom 9 -£10.00 +£255.70 05/02/2011 Nottm Forest 1 - 0 Watford 4.75 -£10.00 +£245.70 05/02/2011 Chesterfield 2 - 2 Aldershot 5 -£10.00 +£235.70 Hopefully we'll have better luck with our midweek pick... 08/02/2011 | Leyton Orient v Swindon | Away Win | 3.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins A disappointing result, though Swindon were well on top in terms of shots on and off target and corners... but well behind on the one that matters - goals! 08/02/2011 Leyton Orient 3 - 0 Swindon 3.75 -£10.00 +£225.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Here's a full breakdown of November's results... DateMatchOddsP/LP/L CumSat 6th NovCoventry 2 - 3 Leeds3.25+£22.50+£22.50Tue 9th NovKettering 0 - 2 Mansfield3.19+£21.90+£44.40Sat 14th NovChesterfield 1 - 2 Burton5+£40.00+£84.40Sat 14th NovTorquay 1 - 1 Barnet6.08-£10.00+£74.40Sat 14th NovKettering 2 - 2 Cambridge3.1-£10.00+£64.40Sat 20th NovMan Utd 2 - 0 Wigan16.4-£10.00+£54.40Sat 20th NovCardiff 0 - 2 Nottm Forest4.5+£35.00+£89.40Sat 20th NovCharlton 3 - 2 Yeovil6.5-£10.00+£79.40Sat 20th NovShrewsbury 1 - 1 Southend4.33-£10.00+£69.40Sat 20th NovEin Frankfurt 0 - 4 Hoffenheim3.23+£22.30+£91.70Sat 20th NovInverness CT 4 - 2 Hibernian3.36-£10.00+£81.70Tue 23rd NovBournemouth 2 - 0 Yeovil5-£10.00+£71.70Tue 23rd NovChesterfield 1 - 2 Oxford5+£40.00+£111.70Sat 27th NovBarnsley 0 - 0 Watford3.25-£10.00+£101.70Sat 27th NovValenciennes 3 - 0 Arles8-£10.00+£91.70Sat 27th NovSeville 1 - 3 Getafe5.5+£45.00+£136.70Sun 28th NovAuxerre 1 - 2 Toulouse4.1+£31.00+£167.70Tues 30th NovKidderminster 0 - 0 York3.1-£10.00+£157.70 Total staked = £180 Profit/loss = +£157.70 It's too early for the ROI to be of any significance, but at the moment it's 87.22%! We won't acheive anything like this long term and instead will be looking for around 30%, but long may this good run continue! Hi Bairn, This is my first time posting here as I am usually posting advice (for what it;s worth over at the betting school. Your method intrigues me as I have been testing out formulas based on a simplified version of ELO which like yourself am wary of posting full details here. Your method is based on mathematical data as my own (ditto), but I am always searching for alternative trades to improve profit on selections. I don't know if anyone has suggested this as I have not followed your thread all through, but I was imediately struck by your results for November for example. Quickly scanning, your results show ~ 8 wins to 10 losses, albeit the prices gained on wins returned a decent ROI. Now what if you were to use a seperate bank and cover the selections on the quarter ball asian handicap. I'm quite sure at prices mentioned, the +0.5 HC would have been available. Price availability will have been shorter but 50% of losses were draws meaning 1/4 ball winners. Your Nov results would then be 13 wins to 5 losses. Again shorter odds but to my mind, increasing win percentage is more important in terms of compounding bank percentage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Cheers David....that was quick calculating, of course one would expect the AH return to be lower on level stakes in the short term. Although I do not advocatr progressive staking methods, it would be interesting to test ALL of the Bairn1 selections on various staking methods, if anyone has a full copy of the Staking Machine. As stated, I use strict bank percentage of bank myself, but may be of interest to other members here. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi there, Thanks for this. This sounds interesting. Other than understanding the basic concept, I'm not too familiar with asian handicap betting, but what you say does make sense. With the high odds that the system bets to at the moment, I do have to deal with some pretty long losing runs, so this would hopefully sort this out. The only thing that puts me off it slightly is that last season, and when back-testing over the previous two seasons, the draw percentage was very low and I'd have actually lost more money backing draws than I would have backing home wins. However, I do think it's worth looking into. I get my data from football-data.co.uk - does anyone know offhand if their data contains AH odds? P.S. Looks like there'll be a couple of picks for the weekend - I'll post these later. Hi Bairn, This is my first time posting here as I am usually posting advice (for what it;s worth over at the betting school. Your method intrigues me as I have been testing out formulas based on a simplified version of ELO which like yourself am wary of posting full details here. Your method is based on mathematical data as my own (ditto), but I am always searching for alternative trades to improve profit on selections. I don't know if anyone has suggested this as I have not followed your thread all through, but I was imediately struck by your results for November for example. Quickly scanning, your results show ~ 8 wins to 10 losses, albeit the prices gained on wins returned a decent ROI. Now what if you were to use a seperate bank and cover the selections on the quarter ball asian handicap. I'm quite sure at prices mentioned, the +0.5 HC would have been available. Price availability will have been shorter but 50% of losses were draws meaning 1/4 ball winners. Your Nov results would then be 13 wins to 5 losses. Again shorter odds but to my mind, increasing win percentage is more important in terms of compounding bank percentage! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Two picks for the weekend, both in the Conference... 12/02/2011 | Histon v Hayes & Yeading | Away Win | 3.3 (Coral) 12/02/2011 | Kettering Town v Barrow | Away Win | 4 (Blue Square) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins ..... I get my data from football-data.co.uk - does anyone know offhand if their data contains AH odds?..... Hi Bairn..... and congratulations on a great start for your system :clap Yes, football-data does include AH odds..... it used to show the "balanced" AH odds, but for the past 2-3 seasons it only gives the AH(0) odds i.e. DNB. Apparently the author gets all his odds data from Betbrain (I think) and BB only shows the most popular AH odds... which is, apparently AH(0) :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Bain1, Check ur Inbox, i send personal mssg to you.... Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 12/02/2011 Histon 0 - 1 Hayes & Yeading 3.3 +£23.00 +£248.70 12/02/2011 Kettering Town 1 - 1 Barrow 4 -£10.00 +£238.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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