Bairn's Value Away Wins

[bairn1]

Hi all, This is a system I've been betting on over the past month or so, and the results from this and from back-testing have been very good. It involves using various ratings to try to find fixtures where the ratings suggest bookmaker may have underestimated the chance of an away win. This system will require some patience and there will undoubtedly be some losing streaks (the longest losing streak I came across while back-testing was 13), but I am confident that this system will produce a good steady profit in the long term. I'll post the selections and results on here along with a running profit/loss based on a simple staking plan of £10 fixed stakes. This weekend, the system has only thrown up one fixture (there will normally be a few more)… Sat 6th Nov - Coventry v Leeds - £10 at 9/4 (with Pinnacle Sports)

[Evertonboy]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Sounds interesting. Do you take into account strength of opposition or anything like that? Be intresting to have a bit mire insight into your calculations. I would wish you best of luck but I've backed Coventry :lol ... So maybe I'll wish you luck next time :ok

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points The strength of the opposition isn't really taken into account - only the fact that they may have been getting better results recently than may have been expected based on their performance ratings. I've tried filtering the results down to either exclude teams with very high points ratings and very low points ratings, but neither appear to improve the overall results.

[sodabrab]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Hi Bairn What have you included in your analysis in order to come up with selection. I always favour systems that don't produce >10 outcomes but we need some detail in analysis before providing any feedback.

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Hi Bairn What have you included in your analysis in order to come up with selection. I always favour systems that don't produce >10 outcomes but we need some detail in analysis before providing any feedback.

Hi there, For every team, I calculate a peformance rating and a points rating and compare these. So if the away team's performance rating is significantly better than the home team's, but the away team's points rating is significantly worse, then I bet on an away win. I the Coventy v Leeds example, I had performance ratings of -0.45 v -0.06 (the average I have is 0 and currently in the Championship, QPR are rated highest at 1.73, and Bristol City lowest at -2.28). Points ratings were 1.27 v 0.96. Everything is mathematical, and I don't take into account team news, importance of match, gut instinct, or anything like that. Hope this makes sense!

[sodabrab]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Cheers - Very interesting and a positive result today.. well done!!!

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Sat 6th Nov | Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds | +£22.50 ...quite a few midweek fixtures, so tomorrow or Tuesday, I'll post details of any fixtures that fit in with the system.

[Evertonboy]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Could you give us a bit more insight into your system? What constitutes a good performance?

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Could you give us a bit more insight into your system? What constitutes a good performance?

Hi there, I used formulas to calculate the performance rating for two teams in a match. I hope its okay, but I don't want to put these in here so as not to give the full details of the system away. Simple formulas are also used to calculate points ratings. Ratings are then averaged over the season with more weight being given to more recent matches. This might look like a lot of effort, and it did take a bit of work setting up, but it's actually now just a case of loading results and stats into a database and letting a computer program do the work! Hope this makes sense?!

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points From the up and coming midweek fixture, there is again just one fixture that fits in with the system... Tuesday 9th November | Kettering Town v Mansfield | £10 at 3.19 (with Pinnacle Sports)

[sodabrab]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Well done again Bairn, this time I had a sizeable bet on Mansfield so joined in. Well done anyway keep up the good work!!! Makes perfect sense by the way

[sodabrab]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Bairn - Which site do you use for the soccer stats?

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points not sure if im using the same formula as you bairn, but ive done extensive backtesting using a similar idea and this system is showing some promise. although contrary to the whole idea of this forum, and im sure ill get some feedback for this, i suggest you do more backtesting/papertrailing in private as ive heard bookies view this forum periodically ;)

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

not sure if im using the same formula as you bairn' date=' but ive done extensive backtesting using a similar idea and this system is showing some promise. although contrary to the whole idea of this forum, and im sure ill get some feedback for this, i suggest you do more backtesting/papertrailing in private as ive heard bookies view this forum periodically ;)[/quote'] Thanks for the advice. Do you think it would be an idea to remove some of the detail I've put in previous posts?

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Bairn - Which site do you use for the soccer stats?

I get all the data, including that for backtesting and coming up with the system in the first place, from the excellent football-data.co.uk

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Very early days, but a great start!...

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
Sat 6th Nov	Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds	3.25	+£22.50	+£22.50
Tue 9th Nov	Kettering 0 - 2 Mansfield	3.19	+£21.90	+£44.40

[Boulder5111]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points good start Bairn - looks like you've done some good testing with this, will be watching with interest. Good luck :ok

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Thanks for the advice. Do you think it would be an idea to remove some of the detail I've put in previous posts?

its up to you. and im not sure if youve realized this, but you have a good yield from many bets. :dude

[Fearthainn]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points This system looks promising indeed. Bairns, what if instead of backing the away team in your selections you had laid the home team? What kind of results would you have had? Did you look into this? I assume it wouldn't have been as profitable, I'm just asking out of curiosity.

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

This system looks promising indeed. Bairns, what if instead of backing the away team in your selections you had laid the home team? What kind of results would you have had? Did you look into this? I assume it wouldn't have been as profitable, I'm just asking out of curiosity.

Hi there, I did think about this, but I didn't have accurate odds from BetFair to be able to work out how accurate figures for this. However, when I looked at how much I'd have lost if I'd have always bet on home wins, it was actually slightly less than what I'd have lost if always betting on draws. So I didn't think it was worth looking into this more. I'm pretty confident that laying home wins (or even laying draws) would give a long term profit too though.

[Fearthainn]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Hi there, I did think about this, but I didn't have accurate odds from BetFair to be able to work out how accurate figures for this. However, when I looked at how much I'd have lost if I'd have always bet on home wins, it was actually slightly less than what I'd have lost if always betting on draws. So I didn't think it was worth looking into this more. I'm pretty confident that laying home wins (or even laying draws) would give a long term profit too though.

I see, cheers :) By the way, for what it's worth I agree with Ofcourseitwas. You seem to have a good system here, it's good from you to share your selections with the forum if you wish to do so, but too many details on how you got to them are probably not the best idea. Just my 2p!

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

I see, cheers :) By the way, for what it's worth I agree with Ofcourseitwas. You seem to have a good system here, it's good from you to share your selections with the forum if you wish to do so, but too many details on how you got to them are probably not the best idea. Just my 2p!

Thanks for the advice. I'll try and edit a few previous posts to take out a bit of detail!

[ofcourseitwas]

Thanks for the advice. I'll try and edit a few previous posts to take out a bit of detail!

if you look at muppet's last post youll see that the bookies are already onto him and changing odds quite quickly...lets see where this goes

[sodabrab]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points t

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Three fixtures have been highlighted from this weekend's action... all in the lower English leagues (though the system does look at the top leagues throughout Europe too). Saturday 13th November Chesterfield v Burton £10 at 5.0 (BetFred, BlueSq, Ladbrokes, Stan James + others) Torquay v Barnet £10 at 6.08 (Pinnacle) Kettering v Cambridge £10 at 3.1 (Victor Chandler)

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points good luck :cheers

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points nice job today :clap, only 1 came through but a net of +2 points. ps...u can edit thread title by editing the 1st post, then clicking edit again

[barrhead73]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Excellent start mate, going to follow this closely as i have my own aways thread running as well

[bairn1]

Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
Sat 6th Nov	Coventry 2 - 3 Leeds	3.25	+£22.50	+£22.50
Tue 9th Nov	Kettering 0 - 2 Mansfield	3.19	+£21.90	+£44.40
Sat 14th Nov	Chesterfield 1 - 2 Burton	5	+£40.00	+£84.40
Sat 14th Nov	Torquay 1 - 1 Barnet	6.08	-£10.00	+£74.40
Sat 14th Nov	Kettering 2 - 2 Cambridge	3.1	-£10.00	+£64.40

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins More selections than usual this weekend... Sat 20th Nov | Man Utd v Wigan | £10 at 16.4 (Pinnacle) Sat 20th Nov | Cardiff v Nottm Forest | £10 at 4.5 (with Paddy Power or SkyBet) Sat 20th Nov | Charlton v Yeovil | £10 at 6.5 with Bwin Sat 20th Nov | Shrewsbury v Southend £10 at 4.33 with Ladbrokes or SkyBet Sat 20th Nov | Ein Frankfurt v Hoffenheim | £10 at 3.23 with Pinnacle Sat 20th Nov | Inverness CT v Hibernian | £10 at 3.36 Pinnacle There are a couple of fixtures here that I wouldn't have expected to fit in with the system (and made me double check my calculations)!