Tennis - 1-7 November

[Atko]

ATP 500 events from Basel and Valencia, both indoors on Greenset. There are also four Challenger events: Astana (indoor hard), Charlottesville (outdoor hard), Medellin (clay) and Eckental (indoor carpet). As for WTA, eight women head to Bali for the international tournament championships, starting on November 4. They are Na Li, Aravine Rezai, Yanina Wickmayer, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (try saying that after a few vodkas), Ana Ivanovic, Alisa Kleybanova, Kimiko Date Krumm and Daniela Hantuchova. I don't really understand why they are there, but you'll be able to bet on it, so it's game on. All the best for the week :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November I'm putting down a few early bets. I don't know when these will all be played but I see enough in them to fire the trigger now. - Gilles Simon -4 games AH (vs Sergiy Stakhovsky) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) Simon's got a few ranking points to defend from last year in Valencia and I feel he's been given a fairly straightforward tie here against Stakhovksy. They have never met before but I reckon this could be a bad match-up for the Ukrainian. Simon is an intelligent returner of the ball, so I can see him getting plenty of Stakhovsky's serves back, and he's also what I call a pusher, a player who scraps and rallies and forces opponents into errors. Stakhovsky is on a horrible run of form at present. His only wins since the US Open have come against Michael Russell, and on both occasions, he was lucky to win those. He's not playing good tennis and if he couldn't rediscover his form in St Petersburg, where he was defending his title, I can't see him doing so here. If Simon gets infront, I can see Stakhovsky's head going down and it would be plain sailing for Simon there on. The Frenchman got a couple of good wins in Montpellier, including one over David Nalbandian, and I expect him to take out Stakhovsky in his present form. - David Ferrer -3.5 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) I'm expecting a big week from Ferrer here. He's in pole position for securing a spot in London and he's playing at his home tournament. Indoors may not be his favourite condition but I still reckon a focused, motivated Ferrer is going to be very hard to beat for most in this field. He's the complete warrior, a scrapper with tonnes of heart and ability, and I can see him getting under Garcia-Lopez's skin in this one. Garcia-Lopez had a great time in Asia but I was worried by his match against Michael Berrer in Vienna. It was a poor loss and he served more than ten double faults. If his serve is off, Ferrer will gobble him up. Ferrer leads the H2H 4-1, so there's certainly an advantage for him there. I reckon Garcia-Lopez might be winding down after a good season for him, and with it all to play for in Ferrer's camp in his home town of Valencia, I reckon he can cover a -3.5 game handicap. - Radek Stepanek (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (5/10) Stepanek has a lot of points to defend here in Basel and this is a match that is very winnable for him. De Bakker has broken onto the scene this year with some great results, particularly on the clay, but ever since he beat Fernando Verdasco in Shanghai a few weeks back, he's really stuttered. I think it's worth noting that de Bakker's ideal conditions are not quick ones - he prefers being on the clay where he can have time on the ball. Stepanek, by contrast, revels on the quick courts because he can serve and volley effectively. He hasn't been at his best this year - mainly because of injury - but I can envisage him putting up a fight this week. It'll be a close match but de Bakker's recent form indoors (losses to Daniel Brands and Pablo Cuevas) suggest to me that he's not comfortable here. This is Stepanek's to win. - Marco Chiudinelli +4 games AH (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) I don't really know what to make of Cilic right now. I won't go into a denouement of his slump since the Australian Open but he's a right shadow of his best at present. He's lost a couple of very winnable matches and laboured past guys like Jan Hajek indoors - not good form. He's got a real tricky foe in R1 of Basel in Chiudinelli. The Swiss, playing in his hometown, got to the semi-finals here last year, thus having an armoury of points to defend. He likes it here - the courts suit his game - and he'll fight every step of the way against Cilic. By contrast, the Croat isn't fighting at all. He's gone down meekly in a lot of his matches recently and if he does manage to beat the Swiss, I can see it being a close run thing. All things considered, I have to go with Chiudinelli on the plus. - Michael Berrer +3 games AH (vs Viktor Troicki) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (4/10) This is quite an interesting little match. Berrer's coming back into form with a semi-final berth in Vienna and is back on a quick surface he loves to play on. Troicki crashed out of St Petersburg last week but had just won Moscow, and I'm doubtful whether he really was in the right frame of mind after winning his first Tour title. He's got Davis Cup places to play for so I expect him to be motivated, but Berrer's no easy match for him. The German leads the H2H 3-0 and all the meetings have been indoors, including one this year in Zagreb. It would appear Troicki has troubles when playing the German. He might edge this one as he's in better form, but Berrer could be worth at least a set here and that would make the handicap very coverable. I've got to go with the stats and the form here; Berrer seems a good bet on the plus. :hope

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

I'm putting down a few early bets. I don't know when these will all be played but I see enough in them to fire the trigger now. - Gilles Simon -4 games AH (vs Sergiy Stakhovsky) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) Simon's got a few ranking points to defend from last year in Valencia and I feel he's been given a fairly straightforward tie here against Stakhovksy. They have never met before but I reckon this could be a bad match-up for the Ukrainian. Simon is an intelligent returner of the ball, so I can see him getting plenty of Stakhovsky's serves back, and he's also what I call a pusher, a player who scraps and rallies and forces opponents into errors. Stakhovsky is on a horrible run of form at present. His only wins since the US Open have come against Michael Russell, and on both occasions, he was lucky to win those. He's not playing good tennis and if he couldn't rediscover his form in St Petersburg, where he was defending his title, I can't see him doing so here. If Simon gets infront, I can see Stakhovsky's head going down and it would be plain sailing for Simon there on. The Frenchman got a couple of good wins in Montpellier, including one over David Nalbandian, and I expect him to take out Stakhovsky in his present form. - David Ferrer -3.5 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) I'm expecting a big week from Ferrer here. He's in pole position for securing a spot in London and he's playing at his home tournament. Indoors may not be his favourite condition but I still reckon a focused, motivated Ferrer is going to be very hard to beat for most in this field. He's the complete warrior, a scrapper with tonnes of heart and ability, and I can see him getting under Garcia-Lopez's skin in this one. Garcia-Lopez had a great time in Asia but I was worried by his match against Michael Berrer in Vienna. It was a poor loss and he served more than ten double faults. If his serve is off, Ferrer will gobble him up. Ferrer leads the H2H 4-1, so there's certainly an advantage for him there. I reckon Garcia-Lopez might be winding down after a good season for him, and with it all to play for in Ferrer's camp in his home town of Valencia, I reckon he can cover a -3.5 game handicap. - Radek Stepanek (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (5/10) Stepanek has a lot of points to defend here in Basel and this is a match that is very winnable for him. De Bakker has broken onto the scene this year with some great results, particularly on the clay, but ever since he beat Fernando Verdasco in Shanghai a few weeks back, he's really stuttered. I think it's worth noting that de Bakker's ideal conditions are not quick ones - he prefers being on the clay where he can have time on the ball. Stepanek, by contrast, revels on the quick courts because he can serve and volley effectively. He hasn't been at his best this year - mainly because of injury - but I can envisage him putting up a fight this week. It'll be a close match but de Bakker's recent form indoors (losses to Daniel Brands and Pablo Cuevas) suggest to me that he's not comfortable here. This is Stepanek's to win. - Marco Chiudinelli +4 games AH (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) I don't really know what to make of Cilic right now. I won't go into a denouement of his slump since the Australian Open but he's a right shadow of his best at present. He's lost a couple of very winnable matches and laboured past guys like Jan Hajek indoors - not good form. He's got a real tricky foe in R1 of Basel in Chiudinelli. The Swiss, playing in his hometown, got to the semi-finals here last year, thus having an armoury of points to defend. He likes it here - the courts suit his game - and he'll fight every step of the way against Cilic. By contrast, the Croat isn't fighting at all. He's gone down meekly in a lot of his matches recently and if he does manage to beat the Swiss, I can see it being a close run thing. All things considered, I have to go with Chiudinelli on the plus. - Michael Berrer +3 games AH (vs Viktor Troicki) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (4/10) This is quite an interesting little match. Berrer's coming back into form with a semi-final berth in Vienna and is back on a quick surface he loves to play on. Troicki crashed out of St Petersburg last week but had just won Moscow, and I'm doubtful whether he really was in the right frame of mind after winning his first Tour title. He's got Davis Cup places to play for so I expect him to be motivated, but Berrer's no easy match for him. The German leads the H2H 3-0 and all the meetings have been indoors, including one this year in Zagreb. It would appear Troicki has troubles when playing the German. He might edge this one as he's in better form, but Berrer could be worth at least a set here and that would make the handicap very coverable. I've got to go with the stats and the form here; Berrer seems a good bet on the plus. :hope

Some great picks Ato.Im surprised Simon is available even on the outright at 1.37.That matchup has only one result in my opinion.

I’m surprised at the odds offered for Chiudinelli and I can see them dropping in the next few hours as I believe he will win that match.

I’m not touching the Eastern Europeans this week so I wont play the Troicki match but Debakker is on my lay list so I will happily take Radek although he is on my streaky player list and he is an eastern European.

I like Ferrer a lot and Spaniards play with pride so I expect no problems there.

Could be a great week for betting.

I have a question for you Atko, Valencia being an indoors event, are conditions that fast such that a wee bite on Montanes to beat Soderling would be a risky punt?:dude

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Some great picks Ato.Im surprised Simon is available even on the outright at 1.37.That matchup has only one result in my opinion.

I’m surprised at the odds offered for Chiudinelli and I can see them dropping in the next few hours as I believe he will win that match.

I’m not touching the Eastern Europeans this week so I wont play the Troicki match but Debakker is on my lay list so I will happily take Radek although he is on my streaky player list and he is an eastern European.

I like Ferrer a lot and Spaniards play with pride so I expect no problems there.

Could be a great week for betting.

I have a question for you Atko, Valencia being an indoors event, are conditions that fast such that a wee bite on Montanes to beat Soderling would be a risky punt?:dude

Greenset courts are normally pretty quick. I'd expect Soderling to beat Montanes but wouldn't trust him on the -4 game handicap. Montanes has taken a set off him in their last few meetings. The Swede does have the potential to hit him off the court, so I wouldn't be rushing to take Montanes either.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November I am taking Chiudinelli and Stephanek (small stakes) from the bets already detailed by Atko, but Im taking a few others today

All bets with William hill

Stephan Boleli vs Robin Haase at 2.4

Not sure what happened to Baggy but the swiss veteran now plays the dutch hotshot.

Boleli has always done well in this tournourment and has some impressive results in the last few weeks on the challenger tour. He faces upcoming Dutchman Haase but although he has a great future in terms of motivation I cant see past Boleli.I doubt his game has advanced enough to allow him to take , he hasn’t taken down any trees in my opinion.

The head to head is 1 apiece but I believe Boleli can win this.

John Isner vs Michael Llodra at 1.6

To be honest I had John at about 1.35 and I will happily gobble this up. It’s their first meeting but this is the coming together of 2 players at different ends of the form table. Isner has been very impressive in the last few months and has improved his game beyond making it a service based.

Lost to an in form monfilis and will take heart from some of his performances last week.

Llodra can pull a rabbit from the hat at times, but I doubt he will do it this time. This looks like a gift to be honest and I cant say much unless John picked up an injury last week, only one result in my opinion. Some interesting matchups tomorrow and given the location of the events and the players who are in action, I think it may be safe to throw some money about.Hope I dont jinx the week;) GL:hope

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Taking a few today but with small stakes as this is the tricky part of the season as noted in the forums. Bohli vs Haase- Over 22.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- 4/10 Two players here who enjoy the challenger events and aren't strangers to a tie-break or two in their matches. In fact, combining these two guys, in their last 12 matches (6 each), 8 matches have gone into 3 sets, and an unbelievable 11 tie breaks have been played. Form wise is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other, however Haase has got some practise in Basel, winning two qualifiers. Just strikes me as an overs match. Their only meeting so went into 3 sets with yep, you guessed it, a second set tie break. Hope for the same today. Federer vs Dolgopolov- Federer -5.5 games handicap- 11/10 Bet365- 3/10 Certain argument over Federer stating that he just gets the job done in matches, without humiliating players. However in this case feel he will cover the handicap against the man from Ukraine who although isn't in bad form, did lose against Tursunov comfortably and didn't look too impressive. Fed since the US open disapointment has been superb, with the exception of the Murray encounter has only dropped one set and is playing some good tennis. Dolgopolov is the kind of guy that if things go against him, he struggles. Therefore is Fed can get an early break in a set, expect him to get a double and that should cover the 5.5 handicap. Verdasco vs Russell- Russell +4.5 games handicap- Evens Bet365- 3/10 Verdasco vs Russell- Russell to win- 7/2 Bet365- 1/10 Interesting match this one IMO. Verdasco has been struggling with a back injury picked up a few weeks back whilst playing doubles. He's lost his last 4, and hasn't played since the injury so he isn't going to walk over the American. Russell is one of those hard hitting erratic players IMO. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't, but he does have power which although normally would suit Verdasco, due to his injury may unsettle him. He's come through the qualifiers so is used to the surface in Spain and may just spring an upset in front of the home crowd for the Spaniard. 4.5 handicap looks about right but I fancy Russell to cover it as long as he can silence the crowd early on. If this happens, don't rule out the outright win for the American and at a very generous price as well considering Verdasco atm.

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Greenset courts are normally pretty quick. I'd expect Soderling to beat Montanes but wouldn't trust him on the -4 game handicap. Montanes has taken a set off him in their last few meetings. The Swede does have the potential to hit him off the court' date=' so I wouldn't be rushing to take Montanes either.[/quote'] Valencia court is very fast, much faster then Stockholm few weeks ago. I wouldn't trust to Soda anyway as he is pretty shaky last few weeks. While you can understand result against Federer, matches against Golubev and Mayer were really ugly for him...

[Bukic]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

I'm putting down a few early bets. I don't know when these will all be played but I see enough in them to fire the trigger now. - Gilles Simon -4 games AH (vs Sergiy Stakhovsky) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) Simon's got a few ranking points to defend from last year in Valencia and I feel he's been given a fairly straightforward tie here against Stakhovksy. They have never met before but I reckon this could be a bad match-up for the Ukrainian. Simon is an intelligent returner of the ball, so I can see him getting plenty of Stakhovsky's serves back, and he's also what I call a pusher, a player who scraps and rallies and forces opponents into errors. Stakhovsky is on a horrible run of form at present. His only wins since the US Open have come against Michael Russell, and on both occasions, he was lucky to win those. He's not playing good tennis and if he couldn't rediscover his form in St Petersburg, where he was defending his title, I can't see him doing so here. If Simon gets infront, I can see Stakhovsky's head going down and it would be plain sailing for Simon there on. The Frenchman got a couple of good wins in Montpellier, including one over David Nalbandian, and I expect him to take out Stakhovsky in his present form. - David Ferrer -3.5 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) I'm expecting a big week from Ferrer here. He's in pole position for securing a spot in London and he's playing at his home tournament. Indoors may not be his favourite condition but I still reckon a focused, motivated Ferrer is going to be very hard to beat for most in this field. He's the complete warrior, a scrapper with tonnes of heart and ability, and I can see him getting under Garcia-Lopez's skin in this one. Garcia-Lopez had a great time in Asia but I was worried by his match against Michael Berrer in Vienna. It was a poor loss and he served more than ten double faults. If his serve is off, Ferrer will gobble him up. Ferrer leads the H2H 4-1, so there's certainly an advantage for him there. I reckon Garcia-Lopez might be winding down after a good season for him, and with it all to play for in Ferrer's camp in his home town of Valencia, I reckon he can cover a -3.5 game handicap. - Radek Stepanek (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (5/10) Stepanek has a lot of points to defend here in Basel and this is a match that is very winnable for him. De Bakker has broken onto the scene this year with some great results, particularly on the clay, but ever since he beat Fernando Verdasco in Shanghai a few weeks back, he's really stuttered. I think it's worth noting that de Bakker's ideal conditions are not quick ones - he prefers being on the clay where he can have time on the ball. Stepanek, by contrast, revels on the quick courts because he can serve and volley effectively. He hasn't been at his best this year - mainly because of injury - but I can envisage him putting up a fight this week. It'll be a close match but de Bakker's recent form indoors (losses to Daniel Brands and Pablo Cuevas) suggest to me that he's not comfortable here. This is Stepanek's to win. - Marco Chiudinelli +4 games AH (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) I don't really know what to make of Cilic right now. I won't go into a denouement of his slump since the Australian Open but he's a right shadow of his best at present. He's lost a couple of very winnable matches and laboured past guys like Jan Hajek indoors - not good form. He's got a real tricky foe in R1 of Basel in Chiudinelli. The Swiss, playing in his hometown, got to the semi-finals here last year, thus having an armoury of points to defend. He likes it here - the courts suit his game - and he'll fight every step of the way against Cilic. By contrast, the Croat isn't fighting at all. He's gone down meekly in a lot of his matches recently and if he does manage to beat the Swiss, I can see it being a close run thing. All things considered, I have to go with Chiudinelli on the plus. - Michael Berrer +3 games AH (vs Viktor Troicki) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (4/10) This is quite an interesting little match. Berrer's coming back into form with a semi-final berth in Vienna and is back on a quick surface he loves to play on. Troicki crashed out of St Petersburg last week but had just won Moscow, and I'm doubtful whether he really was in the right frame of mind after winning his first Tour title. He's got Davis Cup places to play for so I expect him to be motivated, but Berrer's no easy match for him. The German leads the H2H 3-0 and all the meetings have been indoors, including one this year in Zagreb. It would appear Troicki has troubles when playing the German. He might edge this one as he's in better form, but Berrer could be worth at least a set here and that would make the handicap very coverable. I've got to go with the stats and the form here; Berrer seems a good bet on the plus. :hope

nice picks atko.Agree with simon easy win and just to add that this is not first meeting between them they played in besancon 2005 6-4 6-7 7-6 win for simon. GL with your bets

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Kohlschreiber vs Chela (VALENCIA) Under 22.5 (7/10) 1.926 at pinnacle This bet is based on what i have seen about chela lately. He is a player in his lasts seasons that still can do some damage on clay, but here it is very different. He has done enoough this season and can´t see him doing mucho more until the end of the year. Despite being 1.90m. he does not serve at all and is way behind the german in this department that is really important on this kind of surfaces. Last week he got his ass kicked by Hanescu and i hope Kohlscreiber to do the same. :hope

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Nicolas Almagro v Daniel Gimeno-Traver Under 21.5 2.00 bet365 Traver is a player totally out of form. He came into Stockholm open shaky and serving badly and broke down mentally in last set vs wildcard Ryderstedt. Almagro is playing with some great confidence this season. He served real good in Beijing vs Soderling so this should be no problem for him to win and I think the total goes under 22.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

My gambling system is based on motivation and there is an abundance of it this week as players battle it out for the WTF. The money you win for participating is enough to guarantee players will give their all, so this is the qualifications’ line up

Onto the main movers. Fernando Verdasco initially lost a spot in the World Tour Finals, from 7th to 9th, and the situaton is looking increasingly perilous for the Spaniard. His main rivals for the 7th/8th spot, Ferrer and Roddick, have initially overtaken him and have nothing to defend for neither this week nor Paris. As a result Verdasco is going to have to defend his semi-final at Valencia this week if he wants to have any hope of making the WTF. Youzhny on paper looks like a contender, but again he has a significant amount of points to defend before even starting an assault on Ferrer and Roddick. Tsonga and Monfils can mathematically make it, but Monfils has a Paris semi final to defend next week, meaning he'd have to win this week in Valencia and probably win Paris too; not likely. The outlook's brighter for Tsonga, who has nothing to defend and can increase the pressure on Roddick and Ferrer by grabbing a final/title this week. The wildcard however is Jurgen Melzer, currently 12th. He has no points to defend, and is in fine form having just won in Vienna. A solid performance this week sets him up nicely for Paris, and he's well within range of the 7th and 8th places, so he could well make it. However these efforts could easily be all for nought; should Ferrer win Valencia and Roddick Basel, it's all over for Melzer.

A few parlys on some of these players in contention will almost pay off as the odds aren’t as low as at the beginning of the season, maybe bookies are still hoping to cash in after the last few weeks but I see some straight forward matches in round one of Valencia and Basel.

Melzer’s price has gone down from 1.35 to 1.28 but I was never going to bet on him as he is still on my streaky player list, however some good prices are still available

A-rod against Sam at 1.55, David Ferrer against Garcia at 1.35, Mikhail Youzny against Pablo Cuevas at 1.65 and Robin soderling against Montanes at 1.35

I like the price of Phillip Kohlschreiber against a tired Chela at 1.55

I don’t like to play handicaps at this stage of the season as most players just don’t have enough rhythm to close out matches quickly.

GL:hope

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Hi guys, 1 pick for ATP Basel tomorrow: NIEMINEN TO DEFEAT BRANDS @ 1.4 on pinnaclesports Brands has a big serve but otherwise Nieminen is a better player: better play from the baseline, more consistency and quicker movement. Nieminen has been in a very good form lately (15:4 record after US open) and his advantage from the baseline (mainly) will be an important factor.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Gilles Simon did the business yesterday for me but still have plenty of bets waiting - going to take one more for Round 1. - Santiago Giraldo -3 games AH (vs Karol Beck) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (4/10) These two are going in different directions in terms of careers and I think Giraldo has a good chance of taking Beck down here. I used to think of Giraldo as just a clay courter but his favourite surface is actually a hard court. Last week he beat Xavier Malisse in Vienna and took Nicolas Almagro to three sets, so conditions don't seem to be hindering his game too much here. He's a solid server and has a truncheon of a forehand. Beck can be wily but he lacks the weapons to take out someone like Giraldo. He's a lucky loser here, benefitting from Jurgen Melzer's withdrawl, but his recent form has been pretty wobbly. Giraldo plays at a higher level every week. The Colombian also beat Beck two years ago indoors in Vienna, 6-2 7-6. I think he'll be able to hit through the Slovakian and cover the 3-game handicap. :hope

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

My gambling system is based on motivation and there is an abundance of it this week as players battle it out for the WTF. The money you win for participating is enough to guarantee players will give their all, so this is the qualifications’ line up

Onto the main movers. Fernando Verdasco initially lost a spot in the World Tour Finals, from 7th to 9th, and the situaton is looking increasingly perilous for the Spaniard. His main rivals for the 7th/8th spot, Ferrer and Roddick, have initially overtaken him and have nothing to defend for neither this week nor Paris. As a result Verdasco is going to have to defend his semi-final at Valencia this week if he wants to have any hope of making the WTF. Youzhny on paper looks like a contender, but again he has a significant amount of points to defend before even starting an assault on Ferrer and Roddick. Tsonga and Monfils can mathematically make it, but Monfils has a Paris semi final to defend next week, meaning he'd have to win this week in Valencia and probably win Paris too; not likely. The outlook's brighter for Tsonga, who has nothing to defend and can increase the pressure on Roddick and Ferrer by grabbing a final/title this week. The wildcard however is Jurgen Melzer, currently 12th. He has no points to defend, and is in fine form having just won in Vienna. A solid performance this week sets him up nicely for Paris, and he's well within range of the 7th and 8th places, so he could well make it. However these efforts could easily be all for nought; should Ferrer win Valencia and Roddick Basel, it's all over for Melzer.

A few parlys on some of these players in contention will almost pay off as the odds aren’t as low as at the beginning of the season, maybe bookies are still hoping to cash in after the last few weeks but I see some straight forward matches in round one of Valencia and Basel.

Melzer’s price has gone down from 1.35 to 1.28 but I was never going to bet on him as he is still on my streaky player list, however some good prices are still available

A-rod against Sam at 1.55, David Ferrer against Garcia at 1.35, Mikhail Youzny against Pablo Cuevas at 1.65 and Robin soderling against Montanes at 1.35

I like the price of Phillip Kohlschreiber against a tired Chela at 1.55

I don’t like to play handicaps at this stage of the season as most players just don’t have enough rhythm to close out matches quickly.

GL:hope

Melzer wont be playing this week. He withdrew from Basel.

[Flotschi]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Very good decision to withdraw basel,he gave everything in Wien to win this ATP again...Just 2 days rest then playig the next tournament would've been stupid tbh...

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

My gambling system is based on motivation and there is an abundance of it this week as players battle it out for the WTF. The money you win for participating is enough to guarantee players will give their all, so this is the qualifications’ line up

Onto the main movers. Fernando Verdasco initially lost a spot in the World Tour Finals, from 7th to 9th, and the situaton is looking increasingly perilous for the Spaniard. His main rivals for the 7th/8th spot, Ferrer and Roddick, have initially overtaken him and have nothing to defend for neither this week nor Paris. As a result Verdasco is going to have to defend his semi-final at Valencia this week if he wants to have any hope of making the WTF. Youzhny on paper looks like a contender, but again he has a significant amount of points to defend before even starting an assault on Ferrer and Roddick. Tsonga and Monfils can mathematically make it, but Monfils has a Paris semi final to defend next week, meaning he'd have to win this week in Valencia and probably win Paris too; not likely. The outlook's brighter for Tsonga, who has nothing to defend and can increase the pressure on Roddick and Ferrer by grabbing a final/title this week. The wildcard however is Jurgen Melzer, currently 12th. He has no points to defend, and is in fine form having just won in Vienna. A solid performance this week sets him up nicely for Paris, and he's well within range of the 7th and 8th places, so he could well make it. However these efforts could easily be all for nought; should Ferrer win Valencia and Roddick Basel, it's all over for Melzer.

GL:hope

I think you confuse World Rankings and World Tour Finals. For the World Tour Finals it doesnt matter how many points you have to defend, because it is a Year-to-date Ranking. So if e.g. Verdasco wins Valencia he will still get 500 Points for the World Tour Finals Ranking, no matter how he fared last year. You only have to defend Points for the 52-weeks World Ranking, which is not the same.... Always a good approach to use players motivation to bet though... Greetz Arantxa

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Taking a few today but with small stakes as this is the tricky part of the season as noted in the forums. Bohli vs Haase- Over 22.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- 4/10 Two players here who enjoy the challenger events and aren't strangers to a tie-break or two in their matches. In fact, combining these two guys, in their last 12 matches (6 each), 8 matches have gone into 3 sets, and an unbelievable 11 tie breaks have been played. Form wise is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other, however Haase has got some practise in Basel, winning two qualifiers. Just strikes me as an overs match. Their only meeting so went into 3 sets with yep, you guessed it, a second set tie break. Hope for the same today. Federer vs Dolgopolov- Federer -5.5 games handicap- 11/10 Bet365- 3/10 Certain argument over Federer stating that he just gets the job done in matches, without humiliating players. However in this case feel he will cover the handicap against the man from Ukraine who although isn't in bad form, did lose against Tursunov comfortably and didn't look too impressive. Fed since the US open disapointment has been superb, with the exception of the Murray encounter has only dropped one set and is playing some good tennis. Dolgopolov is the kind of guy that if things go against him, he struggles. Therefore is Fed can get an early break in a set, expect him to get a double and that should cover the 5.5 handicap. Verdasco vs Russell- Russell +4.5 games handicap- Evens Bet365- 3/10 Verdasco vs Russell- Russell to win- 7/2 Bet365- 1/10 Interesting match this one IMO. Verdasco has been struggling with a back injury picked up a few weeks back whilst playing doubles. He's lost his last 4, and hasn't played since the injury so he isn't going to walk over the American. Russell is one of those hard hitting erratic players IMO. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't, but he does have power which although normally would suit Verdasco, due to his injury may unsettle him. He's come through the qualifiers so is used to the surface in Spain and may just spring an upset in front of the home crowd for the Spaniard. 4.5 handicap looks about right but I fancy Russell to cover it as long as he can silence the crowd early on. If this happens, don't rule out the outright win for the American and at a very generous price as well considering Verdasco atm.

LOSS VOID LOSS LOSS The Dolgopolov retirement with 3 points left just underlined what a dreadful day it was:wall

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

LOSS VOID LOSS LOSS The Dolgopolov retirement with 3 points left just underlined what a dreadful day it was:wall

Same to me... It seems that he felt he could turn all around with that point so he almost broke the leg to get it :D

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

LOSS The Dolgopolov retirement with 3 points left just underlined what a dreadful day it was:wall

Given it was Dolgo, and he had no chances whatsoever, and that there were just three points remaining for Fed to ace, and given that Fed covered both common under and handicap lines, I would say what this retirement actually meant, but I will not, because it's forbidden here :rollin

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Given it was Dolgo' date=' and he had no chances whatsoever, and that there were just three points remaining for Fed to ace, and given that Fed covered both common under and handicap lines, I would say what this retirement actually meant, but I will not, because it's forbidden here :rollin[/quote'] Everything was fine if you ask me, they took him of the court. Or you think they are just trying to put this on some higher acting level - Soviet school of comedy :)

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Nicolas Almagro v Daniel Gimeno-Traver Under 21.5 2.00 bet365 Traver is a player totally out of form. He came into Stockholm open shaky and serving badly and broke down mentally in last set vs wildcard Ryderstedt. Almagro is playing with some great confidence this season. He served real good in Beijing vs Soderling so this should be no problem for him to win and I think the total goes under 22.

I don't know how tennis can be so unlogical. Traver beats Almagro :$ and I'm totally wrong :$

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Does anybody know why Nalbi was anger after last week defeat vs Simon? Was it audience, organizators, referee or something else. Just looking to follow him vs. Hajek in straight sets, but can't find nowhere if he is on 100% for this week and in his case mental stability is special issue...

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

I don't know how tennis can be so unlogical. Traver beats Almagro :$ and I'm totally wrong :$

After match he was speaking about eating something wrong during the breakfast but who knows... Please someone with info about Nalbandian :notworthy

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

- Gilles Simon -4 games AH (vs Sergiy Stakhovsky) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN - David Ferrer -3.5 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN - Marco Chiudinelli +4 games AH (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS - Michael Berrer +3 games AH (vs Viktor Troicki) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS - Santiago Giraldo -3 games AH (vs Karol Beck) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (4/10) WIN

:cheers Decent profit for these ones, hopefully start of a good week.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November I've still got Radek Stepanek to play. There's not a great deal else out there, apart from one small bet. - Jarkko Nieminen -4 games AH (vs Daniel Brands) @ 2.18 with Pinnacle (4/10) I can't really see past Nieminen for this one. I thought about doubling him up with somebody else but in the end I decided to plump for the handicap. The Finn is in a good place at the moment. He's going deeper into tournaments and playing a brand of tennis that suits his this surface (no pun intended, honest). His service has improved dramatically and he's less inconsistent in that department. He's also starting to move better and is looking fitter after all his injuries. Brands can be a dangerous player but I feel he's got a few things going against him here. He comes off a series of defeats in previous tournaments and I still think his game lacks maturity, especially on a quick surface. His serve is his main weapon here but he prefers a clay court, where he has time to line up his huge forehand. He's struggling with movement and timing on a quick surface and that could be one of his downfalls. Nieminen is also a lefty and will naturally go to Brands' backhand, which is still very chippy. Nieminen is cute enough to punish that. I reckon the Finn should be able to do this. :hope

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Hi guys, 1 more pick for the ATP Basel (2nd round tomorrow): NALBANDIAN TO DEFEAT CILIC @ 1.65 on betfair Cilic is out-of-form losing 1-2 round matches in all events since the French Open (except 1 tournament) and this is probably the worst match-up for Cilic - Nalbandian has great return of serve and will also beat him from the baseline. The two matches between them finished with easy wins for Nalbandian.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Hi! Back from holidays. Been around for a couple days now, but not getting involved with tennis. Don't think this is the right time of the season to rely on ppl. So my tennis season is almost done, I guess. Maybe something will come up in the final stages of some tournament, certainly not the opening rounds.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

Hi! Back from holidays. Been around for a couple days now' date=' but not getting involved with tennis. Don't think this is the right time of the season to rely on ppl. So my tennis season is almost done, I guess. Maybe something will come up in the final stages of some tournament, certainly not the opening rounds.[/quote'] Welcome back mate :ok Look forward to seeing your picks again.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November

- Radek Stepanek (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN - Jarkko Nieminen -4 games AH (vs Daniel Brands) @ 2.18 with Pinnacle (4/10) WIN

Nice day all round :ok

[Forlan]

Re: Tennis - 1-7 November Welcome back Psycho,maestro :)