Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

[NIGEL2611]

Amlin Challenge Cup

Thursday 14 October 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Montpellier Hérault v Newcastle Falcons (19:45 BST) 1.5 23 3.25 101.78 %

Here we go for another weekend of nail biting Rugby! The first game is tomorrow night in Montpellier and the teams are as follows: The teams: Montpellier: 15 Pierre Bérard, 14 Quentin Doumayrou, 13 Seta Tuilevuka, 12 Grant Rees, 11 Dimitri Pelo, 10 Santiago Fernandez, 9 Benoit Paillaugue, 8 Giorgi Chkhaidze, 7 Johan Wasserman, 6 Vassili Bost ©, 5 Goncalo Uva, 4 Lionel Dargier, 3 Kevin Kervarec, 2 Joan Caudullo, 1 Na'ama Leleimalefaga. Replacements: 16 Fabien Rofes, 17 George Jgenti, 18 Sébastien Petit, 19 Marc Giraud, 20 Adrien Tomas, 21 Raphael Lagarde, 22 Florian Nicot, 23 Michel Macurdy. Newcastle: 15 Alex Tait, 14 Luke Fielden, 13 Luke Eves, 12 Andy Henderson, 11 Charlie Amesbury, 10 Joel Hodgson, 9 Chris Pilgrim, 8 Allister Hogg ©, 7 Redford Pennycook, 6 Brent Wilson, 5 Glen Townson, 4 Filipo Levi, 3 Kieran Brookes, 2 Joe Graham, 1 Grant Shiells. Replacements: 16 Rob Vickers, 17 Darren Fearn, 18 James Hall, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Mark Wilson, 21 Micky Young, 22 James Fitzpatrick, 23 Tom Catterick. The biggest thing about this game is the eighteen year old (yes 18!) at Fly Half for Newcastle, Joel Hodgson. Manning is out injured, Hodgson came on as a sub against Bourgoin last week and is reckoned to be quite a prospect. He was quite lively when he got his chance last week and I am all for bringing through the youth, but up against a side like Montpellier you are not going to get an easy ride even if you were Dan Carter. 4/9 is massive in favour of the Montpellier win and this is almost worth putting the house on it! I thought Montpellier may at best get a losing bonus point away against Exeter last game, but they took the win against a tough side. Montpellier are unbeaten at home this season, against the like of Toulouse, Racing Metro & Castres. The closest resembling game, to this one could be when they played La Rochelle, winning 26-6 and I fancy something very similar tomorrow against a weakened Newcastle, who didn't impress me in their last match. Looking at the other odds for this game, it's like being a kid in a sweet shop with loads of money! The handicap is only -5 against Montpellier. Skybet offer 8/13 for Montpellier getting to 10pts first.

[b10111]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Im not going to preview the obvious picks, Im taking the handicaps for the following teams,

Heineken Cup – Biarritz, Perpignan, Leicester and Wasps and Toulouse

A few previews of leans that I’m still considering

Edinburg vs Northampton

Well looking at this fixture last week you would have lumped on Northampton but after Edinburg’s close defeat against Cardiff last week, makes you wonder whether a new competition and format hasn’t fired up the Magner league strugglers.I didn’t watch the match to conclude if there was anything to it, but I also believe the tight win by Northampton over a gritty Castres will focus them enough to realize they cant take this weekends opponents lightly.

I believe the quality of Northampton will rise and expect a tight win over the hosts.

Castres vs Cardiff blues

Another game that must have the bookies scratching the heads. Pool favorites Cardiff, barely got over the line against Edinburg last week and need to improve in a number of departments to make an impression on the French team. Rules of thumb says the French are hard to beat at home and even though Castres have been dreadful in the Top 14, I believe their tightish loss to Northampton will give them confidence to give the Welsh team a tough time.

Too close to call, I fancy Cardiff to nick it though. I can’t bring myself to back a team in dreadful form like Castres.

Small stakes in pool 1 though, too many tight games.

Pool 2

Saracens vs Leinster

Saracens got a predictable beating at Clermont and Leinster’s class shone through against an impressive Racing team.I cat call this one and if I had to make a peak I wopuld go for Leinster.There will bde quite a number of away win this season I believe because the difference in class and stages of the season makes a huge difference.

No bet

Racing Metro vs Clermont Auvergne

Im all over Racing, they went down bravely at Leinster and have some cracking players , Steyn, Hernandez, Nallet, Fall, Masi - there are plenty of big names in the Racing squad but fly-half Jonathan Wisniewski who has been deadly so far this season.

It’s a pity they have to play a French team but I expect them to make home advantage count. It might be close but Racing should win in a high scoring game.

Amlin Cup

Handicaps for Bourgoin, harlequins, Sale, Brive,Gloucester and La Rochelle and Stade francais

GL:hope detailed previews to follow, Nigel, if you get odds for the other matches, please put them up!

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Friday 15th October 2010 Heineken Cup

20:00	Ospreys4/11DrawnMatch18/1LondonIrish11/5
20:00	Castres 4/9Drawn Match 18/1Cardiff 7/4

Amlin
18:30	Bourgoin 1/3	Drawn Match 18/1	Exeter 9/4
19:00	Connacht 8/15	Drawn Match 18/1	Bayonne 6/4

Heineken Cup

-7 Ospreys 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+7 London Irish 10/11

-5 Castres 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+5 Cardiff 10/11

Amlin Challenge Cup

-8 Bourgoin 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+8 Exeter 10/11

-4 Connacht 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+4 Bayonne 10/11

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Montpellier

32 - 8 (9 - 8)

Newcastle

:nanaFirst one of the weekend goes in! I have watched the odds tumble on this result all day, from 4/9 (1/2 in some places) down to 1/5, not sure how much the bookies would have lost but they certainly got this one wrong! I was sweating & swearing in equal measures for the last 10 minutes, as I had the correct winning margin after 70 mins, but with only two points to spare! :beer I hope there was plenty of you on this one!

[PerryPFC]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Montpellier

32 - 8 (9 - 8)

Newcastle

:nanaFirst one of the weekend goes in! I have watched the odds tumble on this result all day, from 4/9 (1/2 in some places) down to 1/5, not sure how much the bookies would have lost but they certainly got this one wrong! I was sweating & swearing in equal measures for the last 10 minutes, as I had the correct winning margin after 70 mins, but with only two points to spare! :beer I hope there was plenty of you on this one!

So what bets did you go for?

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Ospreys v London Irish Good win for Irish at home last weekend against Munster and a slightly unlucky loss for the Ospreys at Toulon. Ospreys are favorites and rightly so, they have a good european pedigree compared with that of London Irish, but the Irish do have a lot of attacking flair. We should all expect a high scoring affair, as both teams score a lot of tries in their respective competitions and I am sure the Irish will not be put offby the lively home crowd. If the Irish are to be considered as serious contenders in this competition then they have to come away with at least a losing bonus point. Two bets for me Ospreys to win between 1-10pts and London Irish +11.5 @13/8 skybet. Castres v Cardiff Castres have not lost at home in the Top 14 this season, beating Toulouse by 6, Bayonne by 9 & Racing by 6. They are no pushovers as they proved away last week at Northampton and they have brought back in several front line players for this game. Cardiff had troubles in the set piece last week and they can ill afford to have those troubles against Castres The handicap is -5 against Castres and is probably about right on current form, so I would look at backing the points difference of 1-5 & 6-10 in favour of the home side. Bourgoin v Exeter Chiefs The first-choice half-backs Michaël Forest and Sébastien Laloo are back in the starting 15 at 9 and 10 respectively and this should point towards Bourgoins intentions for this game. Although Bourgoin have not been setting the Top 14 alight this season, they did defeat Biarritz (Bath's conquerers last week) in their last home game and against lesser opposition -7 should be achievable. Connacht v Bayonne This could be the game to watch, as Connacht must win after a shock defeat last week and Bayonne look to cement their position at the top of this pool. Bayonne have rotated their squad but it still doesn't look bad on paper with Sebastien Fauque taking over at fly-half & Rémy Martin coming into the back row. Bayonne have stuttered of late after a good start to the Top 14, so they will look to carry on after their win against Harlequins last week. This is a tough call but I think this is the one game which could go with the away team on Friday evening. Bayonne to win 6/4

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Hi PerryPFC, I took Montpellier winning points margin 21-25 @ 11/1 & the handicap -5 Montpellier. Also did the points margins of 16-20 which was 9/1.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Hi PerryPFC, I took Montpellier winning points margin 21-25 @ 11/1 & the handicap -5 Montpellier. Also did the points margins of 16-20 which was 9/1.

Nice one mate. In future can you mention them before the match goes off and maybe stick your bets in bold so that they don't get submerged in your writeup's. :ok.

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Hi Kev, Apologies, on reflection I am slightly show boating & it won't happen again!:spank But I did get a bit lost in the bookies sweet offerings, there was so much to choose from! If you look at tomorrows Castres v Cardiff game they have priced this the same as tonights match, which is just plain crazy! The difference between tonights teams, Montpellier 2nd of 14 & Newcastle 11th of 12 compared to Castres 10th of 14 & Cardiff 2nd of 12!

[PerryPFC]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Nice one mate. In future can you mention them before the match goes off and maybe stick your bets in bold so that they don't get submerged in your writeup's. :ok.

Cheers Kev ... That's kinda what I was getting at but with less authority and not as eloquent! Cheers Nigel, that write up is much clearer, I know what to follow!! Don't want to miss out on your good write ups and advice because at the end I don't know what the bet is!! From your Montpellier write up I got on the -5 handicap @ 9/10 with Unibet but got confused about your winning margin prediction. Cheers again :ok

[homercleese]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Montpellier

32 - 8 (9 - 8)

Newcastle

:nanaFirst one of the weekend goes in! I have watched the odds tumble on this result all day, from 4/9 (1/2 in some places) down to 1/5, not sure how much the bookies would have lost but they certainly got this one wrong! I was sweating & swearing in equal measures for the last 10 minutes, as I had the correct winning margin after 70 mins, but with only two points to spare! :beer I hope there was plenty of you on this one!

go some too mate, 2.6 13+ on betfair earlier-class prevailed.went into 11/10,lower than hills,b4 kickoff.nice 50 quid won :beer

[Striker]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Playing on Castres to beat Cardiff @ 1.53 [blue Square] Hard to beat at home

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Apologies for the confusion Perry, lesson learned! :ok Striker-It will be close but Castres should prevail :hope Cardiff are no mugs, but home advantage is massive in Rugby and 1.53 is still not a bad price.

[Striker]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th

Playing on Castres to beat Cardiff @ 1.53 [blue Square] Hard to beat at home

Won 27-20:clap

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Saturday 16th October 2010 Top Heineken Cup

13:30	Edinburgh 11/8	Drawn Match 18/1	Northampton 4/7
13:30	Aironi Rugby 10/3	Drawn Match 20/1	Bath 1/5
13:30	Racing Metro 2/5	Drawn Match 18/1	Clermont 15/8
15:30	Munster 1/4	Drawn Match 20/1	Toulon 11/4
17:45	Dragons 10/3	Drawn Match 20/1	Toulouse 1/5
17:45	Saracens 8/13	Drawn Match 18/1	Leinster 5/4

Sunday 17th October 2010

13:00	Wasps 1/7 Drawn Match 25/1 Glasgow 4/1
15:00	Leicester 1/7 Drawn Match 25/1 Scarlets 4/1
15:00	Biarritz 1/6 Drawn Match 20/1 Ulster 7/2

Saturday 16th October 2010

13:30	Racing Metro 2/5	Drawn Match 18/1	Clermont 15/8
14:00	Bucuresti Oaks 4/11	Drawn Match 18/1	Crociati Rugby 11/5
14:00	Petrarca Rugby 9/1	Drawn Match 28/1	Sale 1/25
15:00	Gloucester 1/500	Drawn Match 66/1	Rovigo 66/1
15:00	Harlequins 1/150	Drawn Match 40/1	Cavalieri 20/1
15:30	El Salvador 66/1	Drawn Match 66/1	Brive 1/500
19:45	La Rochelle 4/11	Drawn Match 18/1	Agen 11/5

Handicaps Top Heineken Cup

+3 Edinburgh 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-3 Northampton 10/11

+10 Aironi Rugby 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-10 Bath 10/11

-6 Racing Metro 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+6 Clermont 10/11

-9 Munster 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+9 Toulon 10/11

+10 Dragons 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-10 Toulouse 10/11

-3 Saracens 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+3 Leinster 10/11

Amlin Challenge Cup

-7 Bucuresti Oaks 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+7 Crociati Rugby 10/11

+20 Petrarca Rugby 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-20 Sale 10/11

-52 Gloucester 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+52 Rovigo 10/11

-32 Harlequins 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+32 Cavalieri 10/11

+52 El Salvador 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-52 Brive 10/11

-7 La Rochelle 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+7 Agen 10/11

Sunday 17th October 2010 Top Heineken Cup

-12 Wasps 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+12 Glasgow 10/11

-18 Perpignan 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+18 Treviso 10/11

-12 Leicester 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+12 Scarlets 10/11

-11 Biarritz 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

+11 Ulster 10/11

Amlin Challenge Cup

+8 Leeds 10/11

Handicap Draw 16/1

-8 Stade Francais 10/11

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Edinburgh v Northampton A tough call this one, as Edinburgh are a tough side at home and they have only lost once at home this season to Munster. On that day their pack got bullied by a physical Munster pack and you must think that Northampton will have to be the same today if they are to prevail. Chris Paterson will again be relied upon by Edinburgh to kick lots of points, so Northampton will have to try and keep their penalty count down. Tim Visser is Edinburgh's main try scoring threat, he will be marked by Chris Ashton and this should make for a good contest. This game could go either way but it will be a close game so I will go for a 1-5 points winning margin for both sides & even a little bet on the handicap draw at 18/1. Just spotted Paddy Power offer First scoring points Edinburgh Penalty 9/5 with Chris Patterson in the side this could be a nice start to the game! Result 27-31 (Paterson scored the first point with a penalty as well, added this late apologies but it was a late spot!) Aironi v Bath A must win for a currently under performing Bath team, I believe they will win but Aironi are not whipping boys at home. Although they have been beaten twice at home in the Magners League, it has not been by much 9-10 to Edinburgh & 15-22 to Ulster. In their game last week away at Ulster, they kept it close until half time & then folded after losing a player to the sin bin in the last ten minutes. Aironi +10 to cover the handicap for me! 6-22 (Bath turned up! :wall) Racing-Métro v Clermont The sides have already met once this season, in the Top 14 when an under-strength Clermont side lost 28-17 in Paris. Both sides have injury concerns and for this reason I am going to give this one a miss but Racing should win and cover the -6 handicap. 16-9 Munster v Toulon Which Toulon side will turn up! After a lacklustre win at home to the Ospreys, Toulon give Jonny Wilkinson a rest and replace him with Felipe Contepomi, who will no doubt get a warm welcome from the Munster fans after his time at Leinster! A lot of people are beginning to write off Munster, this is a dangerous thing as their late try last week away at London Irish proved. These boys do not like losing, today I believe the loss is not an option for them and their European pedigree will see them through, as Toulon will have to be ready for a battle from the off! Munster to beat the -9 handicap. 45-18 (Munster just squeezed past the handicap ;)) Dragons v Toulouse The Dragons tend to only lose to the bigger clubs at home in the Magners league and you must think Toulouse fit this description, however Toulouse do not tend to win by much away from home, when they do! Bit in fairness Toulouse are dripping in class players, the Dragons will huff & puff but will fold eventually and this is probably Toulouse easiest away fixture so far this season. Toulouse winning margins 6-10 & 11-15 19-42 (Toulouse did what I secretly feared they might & thumped the Dragons! :wall) Saracens v Leinster This game is at Wembley Stadium and so far 50,000 are expected! This should be a real spectacle of Rugby, Saracens are a good open Rugby side and Leinster are too. Leinster have impressed me, their win last week was breathtaking and for me they are the only team outside of France with a real chance of lifting this trophy at the moment! This game could go either way, Leinster have the pedigree to cause an upset but Saracens do have quality players in their line up, who are used to the big occasion and their win at home against Northampton (24-17) earlier in the season proved this. I cannot see a winning angle on this game and this will be one to watch rather than take a financial interest in for me. 25-23 (What a game, glad I was only watching with no financial interest!)

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Amlin Challenge Too many large handicaps here to look at seriously, La Rochelle at home to Agen, should cover the -7 handicap in the battle of the Top 14 minnows. Harlequins make several changes to their line up today but should still prove too stong for Cavalieri Prato but the -32 handicap is hard to fancy. It is achievable as I cannot see the italians getting much of the ball, but they did cause an upset at home to Connacht last week and so must be respected! However the reports that I read about this game seem to point towards Connacht being the masters of their own downfall, with handling errors and poor set piece rather than Italian mastery! La Rochelle -7 and winnign points margin 1-5 & 6-10

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union: Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge 14th-17th Wasps v Glasgow Not sure what to make of this fixture, before last weekend I would have said Wasps would get rolled against Toulouse but they nearly won! Glasgow won at home beating the Dragons which was only to be expected. This is a match between two sides who do not seem to be able to play to the same standards twice in a row! Glasgow starting off the Magners by beating Leinster at home, which now look a great result & then they can just scrape a home win against Connacht, Wasps on the other hand can lose away at Newcastle then beat Sale away! Perpignan v Treviso Perpignan are unbeaten at home this season and have played most of the Top 14 big guns in achieving this. Treviso are no longer the whipping boys and have continued to build on their improving results from last season but against the bigger teams, away from home they struggle. Leicester v Scarlets Leicester although still strong have leaked tries in defence this season but lucky for them they still continue to score plenty. Scarlets also showed last week that they can score tries & not rely on the boot of Stephen Jones, some of their handling last week was breath taking! Leicester's defence concerns me in this game but I am sure they will still win. Biarritz v Ulster Good starts made by both teams last week, Ulster have played well away from home in the Magners but that was a win at Aironi & a draw in Connacht! Biarritz have started to improve as the season has gone on, winning their local derby at Bourgoin in their last game. Leeds v Stade Francais Leeds by last seasons standards are aweful, Stade are full of internationals and players fighting for their spot in the first fifteen. Cannot see much past an away win! Bets Handicaps: Scarlets +12, Ulster +11 & Stade -8