Tennis (11-17 October)

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Mischa Zverev 2.10 2/10 bet365

Mischa Zverev 2.20 2/10 bet365 In-play

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Mischa Zverev 2.20 2/10 bet365 In-play

I don't know what the hell is up with Zverev but the bookies obviously knew something as the odds on Monaco just kept going down.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Please retire Zverev.

[lato89]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Please retire Zverev.

same here, obv injured and everybody punting him :@

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -3.5 games AH (vs Florian Mayer) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (7/10) WIN - Rafael Nadal -4.5 games AH (vs Jurgen Melzer) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (6/10) LOSS - Novak Djokovic -4.5 games AH (vs Richard Gasquet) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (vs Tomas Berdych) @ 3.65 with Pinnacle (3/10) WIN

+13pt profit today. Mayer tired badly as predicted, Djokovic was on exceptional form and Garcia-Lopez did the business at a nice price. Unbelievable tennis from Melzer, the best he's ever played. Nadal handicap destroyed. Decent day overall though.

[lato89]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) just don't understand why zverev doesen't retire omfg he can't run for s***

[lato89]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) RETIRE STUPID CORRUPTED PRICK

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) I've got to be honest, I'm not seeing a great deal in Shanghai tomorrow. All the favourites appear to be priced accordingly and there are no real stand-outs on the handicaps. Considering Juan Monaco leads the H2H 4-1 against Jurgen Melzer and took him pretty close last week, I can't back a -4 handicap. I don't think the Austrian can play as well as he did against Rafael Nadal. Even so, I'm not wild about backing Monaco either. I wanted a -2.5 game handicap on Andy Murray, who I expect to win tomorrow against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman was complacent today at times against Flo Mayer but he'll bring his game up for this one. Their meetings on hard have been close affairs so I wouldn't entrust Murray with a handicap at present. Roger Federer is also too short against Robin Soderling. He may well have a great record over the Swede but I'm not rushing to go against Soderling on what will probably be an indoor surface tomorrow. Novak Djokovic has got the capability to take out the -5 handicap against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez considering how well he is playing, but is there value in the 1.775 on offer? No, in my book. I'll have to let that one slide unless the market recovers. I could go for a treble of Melzer, Murray and Federer - I expect them all to win - but there's too much of a risk involved for that. Looks like it will be a no-bet day unless the market widly changes.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Have stopped posting recently and concentrated on my blog - I hope it is ok to have it in the signature..if not, tell me and I will remove it, but I have not found any rules that forbid that...I will post my tennis picks here from now on too. Bopanna/Qureshi to bt. Melzer/Paes - 1.92 at Bwin (8/10) Melzer has played so many matches lately and will surely be tired after his match with Monaco, which will definitely be his priority, as he still can get to the final tournament in London. Bopanna and Qureshi are doubles specialists and had many remarkable results this year (US Open final, etc.), so they are tough for any given opponent, yet alone Melzer/Paes. Medium to high stakes for me. One-ball bookie just in case that Melzer feels really bad.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Have stopped posting recently and concentrated on my blog - I hope it is ok to have it in the signature..if not, tell me and I will remove it, but I have not found any rules that forbid that...I will post my tennis picks here from now on too. Bopanna/Qureshi to bt. Melzer/Paes - 1.92 at Bwin (8/10) Melzer has played so many matches lately and will surely be tired after his match with Monaco, which will definitely be his priority, as he still can get to the final tournament in London. Bopanna and Qureshi are doubles specialists and had many remarkable results this year (US Open final, etc.), so they are tough for any given opponent, yet alone Melzer/Paes. Medium to high stakes for me. One-ball bookie just in case that Melzer feels really bad.

Best to drop Paul Ross a PM about this mate - not sure entirely on the rules, but run it past him and see what he says.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Horrible day. Haven't had one this bad in a long time. Schnyder won to avoid a bagel :D Fingers crossed, better things to come on Friday. :hope 1) Kai-Chen Chang to beat Tamarine Tanasugarn. 1.95 @ Nordicbet (5/10) This is the repeat of the first round match at the same tournament last year. Chang recorded convincing win over Tanasugarn in straight sets, beating her 7-5, 6-1. Chang has got a bit lucky this week playing Osterloh who should not have been in this tournament in the first place and then got past Kirilenko via a retirement. Chang is a young player and that will benefit her against Tammy who has had couple tough matches against Rybarikova and Vandeweghe in previous rounds. Chang win for me in this one. She had 16 break points against her in the previous round, that's just not good enough and Chang surely has got more skills on return than Vandeweghe, so I expect her to make the most of opportunities. 2) Iveta Benesova to beat Shahar Peer. 3.30 @ Bwin (4/10) Benesova is on a nice run once again and I feel that I can trust her in current circumstances, even against one of my favorite players. Peer had a scare in her last match against Fuda, dropping a set which was not expected. Interesting thing here is that Benesova has beaten Peer both times they've played and as far as match-up is concerned Iveta has got a solid return game which can be boring at times and therefore hurt inpatient players. Peer's like that. Besides Shahar has a tendency to lose this sort of matches at this sort of stage of the tournament. She quite often plays couple decent matches and then disappears. Having a crack @ Benesova win here. GL! 3) Juan Monaco to win a set against Jurgen Melzer. 2.10 @ Skybet (6/10) Melzer had an incredible match against Nadal. Not sure I've seen him play better against Top player. That match would have given him lots of confidence. Down side for me would be the fact that he might have just got too much excited and Monaco probably will have some say in this one. Moncaco has beaten Melzer 4 times out of 5. The only win for the Austrian came last week in Tokyo, Melzer won a 3-setter. Monaco who was short of match practice at the time run out of gas in the end. He still managed to win a set against Melzer and has achieved that in all 5 meetings. I reckon he can do that again. 4) Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Novak Djokovic. Over 19.5 games. 2.00 @ Bet365 (4/10) Not sure I can agree with this line. It looks short to me. Djokovic has played GGL 3 times and and all matches have been close. The closest of those was this year in Dubai, with Djokovic winning 6-4, 6-4. Remember that he failed to close out one set from 5-1 up in that match. Nevertheless GGL is in better shape at the moment and has got lots of confidence. Of course, Novak could potentially hammer him, but I'm taking chances with overs in this one. Like I said, the line just seems too short. 5) Stosur & Ivanovic double over Krumm & Goerges (Pinnacle is down to maintenance, so can't post odds atm) (7/10) - Stosur v Krumm. Both players have benefited from the draw. Stosur has played couple local players and has dropped just 3 games in every match and has not fNakamura who is a part-time player. As far as the match-up is concerned, Stosur has got a huge advantage in serve whilst Krumm should be able to get something out of longer rallies. However I don't believe Japanese veteran will be able to get past Sam who's a defending champion here. - Ivanovic vs Goerges. Goerges destroyed Kvitova yesterday, winning 6-2, 6-1. It has to be said that Kvitova destroyed herself as much as Goerges did. Petra made tons of unforced errors once again and didn't help herself yet again. Have seen bits of Ivanovic this week and she really looks in confident mood. She won this tournament couple years ago and it looks that this is her best chance to get another title. Goerges could be able to keep this close but don't think she'll be able to win.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Andrea Petkovic v Eleni Daniilidou
Selection	Daniilidou
Strength	10/10
Date	15/10/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.72
Reasoning	Well, Eleni Daniilidou has been away for a long period from those good results, but recently since the tournament from Athens, in her own country Eleni Daniilidou is playing some very impressive tennis. Daniilidou has continued her great form as here at Linz she is playing again amazing tennis. Eleni Daniilidou has been underrated by all during the tournament as she is a player who possess some great qualities, she really can play high quality tennis as she is just a talented player, she didn't showed too much in the past but certain here she is playing a very stable and quality tenis. Now speaking about Andrea Petkovic, well Andrea is a player who can play very nice attacking tennis, no doubts about that, but she still depends a lot of her accuracy of her groundstrokes, she is not a complete player and that is a real proof why she purely can't be rated with these crazy small odds. The difference in class between Petkovic and Daniilidou is not meaningful at all, I will even say that Daniilidou is a better player than the german player, don't want to overrate someone, but just try to be realistic. Daniilidou is a complete player, besides her attacking skills she also possess better deffensive skills which can make a difference between she and Petkovic. All in all, Daniilidou is a great player which is staying in the shadow right now cause she is clear so high underrated by the bookies. Once again want to mentionate that this bet is not just due to these high odds, Petkovic is not even favourite against Daniilidou. Good Luck!

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Tsonga +3.5 at 2.14 Pinnacle It's obvious that Murray is far from his best form and is absolutely beatable especially if Tsonga's wins over Lopez and Querrey and even Mayer although he looked very tired, are product of his good form. JWT was almost 4 months without serious tennis and he camse back in Tokyo where he lost to Nieminen. In his defense i can say that Jarkko was surprisingly good lately and it's not a surprise for someone who lacks match practice. Anyway, Murray should normally be a bad matchup for great server like Jo but, as i said, Murray is not at his best level and JWT can bother him a lot. In any case, odds are set to high and value is IMO in Tsonga. Still, will go with this shorther handicap as lack of match fitness might be crucial here and odds are good enough. Garcia-Lopez +5 at 2.17 Pinnacle Going with underdog again against in form Djokovic. It probably is a very risky bet and its more because of my gut feeling than pure logic but i'll still give it a try. Nole played a lot lately, but last time someone took a set off him was in DC, when he won against Berdych 3-1. After that, he won Beijing quite convincingly and cruised here too against both ljubo and Gasquet. Such info speaks a lot but on the other side of the net is GGL, man who beat Nadal recently and who won past Berdych in the last round. He won some really tough matches and he shouldnt be rated so poorly even against a top player like Nole. I don't have many doubts about Nole winning this match but it should be a tighter than this line suggests. One break/set will bring us at least void but it's very likely that GGL manages to take one set to TB. Melzer -4 at 1.90 Pinnacle Usually i don't like taking negative handicaps but after watching Melzer yesterday i just had to. Austrian never played so well, he's on fire and should be able to finish this quickly. Monaco's win over Zverev is perhaps a bit overrated since the German barely finished the match. Melzer's style is much more suitable for hard courts, Monaco is just not a hard courter and can't make many winners on his serve what will oftenly bring his service in danger. Melzer is not a player who likes to balance his strength, if he gets a chance to break someone twice he'll bite hard on that, and i just cant see Monaco breaking Melzer. I know that one TB can ruin this bet but i just can see anything else than a one way street. GL. Soderling +4 at 1.88 5dimes Soderling won Tipsa and Ferrer in last two matches what means he slowly rasied his form. Will that be enough to beat Fedex who took a longer break after USO, i don't know, but Soderling served well lately, and he can be a tricky opponent to Fedex; he beat him twice this year already(although the h2h is 13-2 in Fedex's favour). Federer surely a big favourite here but both Seppi and Isner weren't a threat and we can't tell a lot about his form. Soderling can hold his serve for at least one TB, perhaps even win a set. GL.

[Ben H]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Hi, Im Ben, I post in the Formula One thread sometimes, but have not posted here before, well done on an excellent thread! Have always been a great fan of tennis (even after the ruthless near-eradication of my beloved serve and volley:cry) but time constraints have stopped from watching a lot the past while! But thats changed now, and am gonna be watching more tennis, and with that may come the odd bet and post in this thread. My first one is a bit of a long shot, but am really up for giving it a go. I have got 2pts on Tsonga, at 34, with Betfair, to win the tournament. From what I've seen, I agree with previous posters that Murray does not seem on peak form, and I always think a best of three suits Tsonga against a player like Murray because Murray has less time to grind down Tsongas fantastic variety of shots, power and winners (remember in their match at Wimbeldon how for the best part of two sets Tsonga looked good for a win?) If Tsonga did win, the Nadal defeat means he would be up against Monaco or Meltzer, and while this would certainly not be easy for the sometimes mecurial Frenchman, I would back him to do it, he has a 2-0 head to head record over both men, and can certainly match Meltzer if he goes off on a hitting spree. If he was then in the final, I would certainly be happy to lay the bet to lock in a nice profit, I can't imagine he would be bigger than 3/1 in a two horse race, in that case? ....Well, we'il see if he avoids the first hurdle tomorrow!:hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Hi, Im Ben, I post in the Formula One thread sometimes, but have not posted here before, well done on an excellent thread! Have always been a great fan of tennis (even after the ruthless near-eradication of my beloved serve and volley:cry) but time constraints have stopped from watching a lot the past while! But thats changed now, and am gonna be watching more tennis, and with that may come the odd bet and post in this thread. My first one is a bit of a long shot, but am really up for giving it a go. I have got 2pts on Tsonga, at 34, with Betfair, to win the tournament. From what I've seen, I agree with previous posters that Murray does not seem on peak form, and I always think a best of three suits Tsonga against a player like Murray because Murray has less time to grind down Tsongas fantastic variety of shots, power and winners (remember in their match at Wimbeldon how for the best part of two sets Tsonga looked good for a win?) If Tsonga did win, the Nadal defeat means he would be up against Monaco or Meltzer, and while this would certainly not be easy for the sometimes mecurial Frenchman, I would back him to do it, he has a 2-0 head to head record over both men, and can certainly match Meltzer if he goes off on a hitting spree. If he was then in the final, I would certainly be happy to lay the bet to lock in a nice profit, I can't imagine he would be bigger than 3/1 in a two horse race, in that case? ....Well, we'il see if he avoids the first hurdle tomorrow!:hope

Welcome to the tennis thread Ben H, good to have you on board. Fingers crossed for your bet :ok

[LilEagle]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Federer is running out of time if he want to remember this season as medioker, he only got a couple of times left to shine for the fans and be remembered for a good end of year. Im sure he's serious about winning this tournament as he has left his wife and children at home and traveled here alone. Federer has a massive H2H lead over Soderling and a heavy psychologically advatange. 5 units on R. Federer - 1.357 @ Pinny

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) The doubles bet looks even better now that Melzer is looking average and in for a longer battle...get in while you can.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Federer is running out of time if he want to remember this season as medioker, he only got a couple of times left to shine for the fans and be remembered for a good end of year. Im sure he's serious about winning this tournament as he has left his wife and children at home and traveled here alone. Federer has a massive H2H lead over Soderling and a heavy psychologically advatange. 5 units on R. Federer - 1.357 @ Pinny

Will be a great match this one and after this I expect to see Federer and Soderling in the Stockholm open final as both are coming to Stockholm open after Shanghai and I look forward to that. James Blake got a wildcard to Stockholm open and also Berdych Ljubicic Bellucci and Robredo will be there. After Stockholm open I guess Federer will travel home to Switzerland and play the 250 tournament in Basel a week before Paris masters.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Juan Monaco 7.00 in-play bet365 10€

[rokasar]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) I think Melzer will surely retire from doubles match. It's going to be a 3 hour match and austrian is not a monster in stamina. He already looks tired. Btw, i followed Psycho bet on laying 2-0 for Melzer. Thanks. ; )

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Monako did the job :nana It took one round more than expected to get rid of the sticky Melzer, but the odds were nice this time (@ Pinnacle 3.85) Now I need Melzer to lose that double, and this friday will be great.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Juan Monaco 7.00 in-play bet365 10€

:cow

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Have to say that I am really amazed by Federer. If he keeps this form, he should be the favourite in the ATP Finals.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) 0/4 today. Horrible. :wall

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

0/4 today. Horrible. :wall

Chin up mate, we all have them.

[rogerspro]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) wow. talk about fade central material. you all need to tail atko. serious. im not making fun of you, its serious advice. it will save you money.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Semi-final day in Shanghai tomorrow and I like the look of two bets. The first match up is Andy Murray vs Juan Monaco and as well as the Argentine has been playing this week, I reckon it'll end with a bump here. Murray's in superb form. He completely annihilated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga today and looks fresh. He's serving well, which is a big thing for him, and he's hitting great shots off the ground. Monaco's playing well but he's had two beastly matches, first against Thiemo de Bakker and then against Jurgen Melzer, this week. Considering he's had fitness problems this year, I question how much he has left in the tank. He's beaten Murray before, on clay, and took a set off him in Miami, but Murray seems focused here, and I can see him doing this fairly straightfowardly (ie 6-3 6-3). The price on the -5 game handicap isn't the best at 1.862, but I'm happy to play it. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic is going to be a humdinger. Djokovic is in tremendous form and I would've backed him to win had Federer not trashed up Robin Soderling today. These guys played a five-setter at the US Open and I can see another really close match here. Both men serve and return well and neither will give up if they go a set down. It has all the making of a classic match. I think Federer will want revenge for Flushing Meadows, and I think Djokovic will want to start a period of domination over the Swiss. The line is at over 23 games and is priced in 1.90s, which I think looks good value considering the form both these guys are in. Selections: - Andy Murray -5 games AH (vs Juan Monaco) @ 1.862 with Pinnacle (5/10) - Over 23 games AH (Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic) @ 1.935 with Pinnacle (5/10) :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

wow. talk about fade central material. you all need to tail atko. serious. im not making fun of you, its serious advice. it will save you money.

I appreciate the kind words mate, but there are plenty of very capable tennis punters out here who know their stuff too. I had a bad one at the start of the week - these things happen to the best of us. Nobody gets it right all the time, otherwise we wouldn't be here, instead on an island in the Bahamas.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Have to fancy Novak Djokovic to cover the handicap of +2.5 games tomorrow. Extremely tempted with the outright but Federer can condense his play better in the best of three setters and is still incredibly hard to beat in the shorter format, as we saw in Montreal before the US Open when Djokovic was unbelievable at times but still couldn't win. If it was a best of five-setter Djoko would be an undoutbted favourite in my eyes. What's also interesting is that when Djokovic has taken a set off Roger recently, he's done it convincingly while Rog has ground it out alot of time, often on tie breaks. So even if Djoko loses tomorrow I fancy him to win a set comfortably enough to cover the handicap( ;) ), which should do the job if the others are close. Soderling was complete garbage today(has been for a while) and I think the Seppi match is a more accurate barometre of Fed's status. He was good in that match but Seppi caused him some problems in the second set, so Djokovic should cause even more of an indentation into Federer's serenity. Novak Djokovic + 2.5 games ( vs Roger Federer) @ 4/5 Paddy Power (7/10)

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Have to fancy Novak Djokovic to cover the handicap of +2.5 games tomorrow. Extremely tempted with the outright but Federer can condense his play better in the best of three setters and is still incredibly hard to beat in the shorter format, as we saw in Montreal before the US Open when Djokovic was unbelievable at times but still couldn't win. If it was a best of five-setter Djoko would be an undoutbted favourite in my eyes. What's also interesting is that when Djokovic has taken a set off Roger recently, he's done it convincingly while Rog has ground it out alot of time, often on tie breaks. So even if Djoko loses tomorrow I fancy him to either win a set comfortably or lose 7-6 6-4, which would do the job. Soderling was complete garbage today(has been for a while) and I think the Seppi match is a more accurate barometre of Fed's status. He was good in that match but Seppi caused him some problems in the second set, so Djokovic should cause even more of an indentation into Federer's serenity. Novak Djokovic + 2.5 games ( vs Roger Federer) @ 4/5 Paddy Power (7/10)

Surely he would still lose with +2.5 and the score above? You either need him to lose on 2 tie breaks or 2-1 with a convincing set?