Tennis (11-17 October)

[Atko]

In here :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Not sure when this match will be played (it'll be either Monday or Tuesday) but want to hit this one early in case the price drops. - Gilles Simon (vs Stanislas Wawrinka) @ 1.935 with Pinnacle (6/10) This will be Wawrinka's first match since his defeat to Kukushkin in the Davis Cup. He was beaten soundly then and part of the reason was fatigue after the US Open and a wee thigh injury. Having the best part of three weeks off to recuperate will have helped him but I think it'll be tough for him to come from Switzerland to China, adapt to the conditions and beat a tough player in Simon. The Frenchman has been playing his way back to a decent level after injury and despite losing soundly to Djokovic last week, he's showing some good stuff, serving well and finding his range. He's on his best surface in hard courts and will spar all day with Wawrinka. He's a player who draws errors out of his opponents and if Wawrinka is rusty, he'll be exposed by this. Their only meeting was a number of years ago (maybe 2003) on clay, which Wawrinka won, but I'm readily discounting that because both men have changed dramatically. An up-to-speed Wawrinka would have been my slight favourite but considering he's been off for a bit, he won't like this match-up against a dangerous opponent and I feel the roles are justly reversed. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Yes 100% agreed on Simon. This one stood out straight away. Simon to beat Wawrinka @ 1.935 (Pinny:5pts) Stan with little match play since his great run at the US, bar a loss in Davis Cup to Kukushkin.Simon on the other hand has been getting steadily better for the last few months....won in Metz admittedly against weak-ish field....and 1/4's last week in Beijing...good win over dangerous Querrey in 3, he scrapped through against Berrer and played a really good match vs Djokovic...closer than the score suggests...Novak just having that extra bit of class to change it up when he needed to and win the rallies. Quite impressed with Simon in that one. Think he can have a decent end to the year and would have him as a slight fave vs Stan without much competitive tennis recently....odds look fine IMO. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Might try Feli Lopez as a dog vs Tsonga aswell, Tsonga seems fadable at the minute...like Del Potro. But I hate backing Lopez.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Might try Feli Lopez as a dog vs Tsonga aswell' date=' Tsonga seems fadable at the minute...like Del Potro. But I hate backing Lopez.[/quote'] This is on my shortlist too mate (looks like we've got similar ones considering the Simon bet) but I was thinking taking him on the +2 game line. Both huge servers and could be close sets, so there'd be some added security in that. Will decide nearer the time though.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Michael Llodra > David Ferrer 3.40 @ bet365 (7/10) Is there a chance for upset here or what do you think? Llodra's been crap a long time and should not be able to win this but I could also see him turning up with a stellar performance. He is a player who can beat Ferrer but if he can right now is unsure. Andreas Seppi > Marin Cilic 3.75 @ bet365 (7/10) A huge chance for Seppi here. He's beaten Cilic in Cincinnati qualifiers and in Croatia both on hardcourt before. Cilic is just not working since long time now. This screams upset a lot more then Llodra! Seppi to win!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Few tempting ones for tomorrow. WTA Linz: Groth -5 AH vs Keothavong @ 1.952 (Pinnacle:3pts) I like Keothavong but Groth should take care of her here. Anne has struggles on serve where as that is Groth's best quality. She lost to young talent Pervak 6-3 7-5 last week in an ITF event in England and before that failed to qualify for Quebec losing to Glatch in 3. Groth on the other hand has been very good in recent months even winning in Guangzhou last month. She's not played so much on indoor hard but her game should take to it well I think. WTA Linz: K. Bondarenko +4 AH vs Hantuchova @ 2.040 (Pinnacle:5pts) Thought about overs here but not sure about Hantuchova here so handicap looks better. Bondarenko is a pretty tough competitor and occasionally can produce good performances...and looking at Hantuchova lately I think she can do that tomorrow. Daniela lost to Hercog in 3 last week and Hercog is far from accomplished on hard surface and she retired the week before in Tokyo 2-6 6-0 4-0 against Krumm. Not good results and I think Bondarenko can push her in this one. WTA Linz: Serena vs Vinci OVER 18 AH games @ 1.855 (Pinnacle:4pts) Bit surprised to see Serena returning for this tournament in Austria, but she must be eager for matches after that foot injury which kept her out since Wimbledon. Vinci is a decent player beaten some good players in the last few weeks...Petrova,Dushevina, Pironkova, Kuznetsova. Serena beat her at Wimbledon last year 6-3 6-4 and I think she can keep it similarly competitive again here. WTA Linz: Kerber +3.5 games vs Petkovic @ 2.090 (Pinnacle:3pts) Kerber leads h2h 6-0 so i see no reason not to take her here.Petkovic is good but very erratic and brainless at times....Kerber does have struggles on serve but her ground game is good, nice lefty forehand.Beat Radwanska and Dulgheru in Beijing before being crushed by Na Li, her odds look a little high IMO. ATP Shanghai: Roddick vs Kohlschreiber OVER 22 AH games @ 1.833 (Pinnacle:5pts) Think Kohli can keep this match close here. Roddick leads h2h 3-1 but their last 2 matches were in slams, a 4 setter in Wimbledon this year and 5 setter in Australia in 08 which Kohli won. Kohli can step up his game against top guys at times and I don't think Roddick is at his best right now, though serve will always keep him in matches. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Reports that Serena may not play tomorrow btw.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Garcia-Lopez & Kai-Chen Chang double over Schwank & Osterloh. 2.02 @ Pinnacle (7/10) - Schwank is out of form for ages now and besides that has got an ankle injury. GGL is in decent form and should be able to get past the Argentine player here. Schwank has only beaten Kamke and Ginepri in recent months and in-from GGL will be just too much for him in current circumstances. - No idea why on earth Osterloh has decided to play this event, The bottom line here is that she's too old and barely plays away from US. Chagn is a promissing youngster and will relish a chance to get past 1st round in this tournament. Really can't see any other outcome than Chang win. Sophie Ferguson to beat Stefanie Voegele. 1.89 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Voegele in terrible form at the moment, she's recorded just couple wins in last 10 matches and only against crap opponents like Camerin and an unknown player from Uzbekistan Abdurakhimova. Ferguson not much better but confidence wise is in better shape and has beaten Voegele in their only H2H match which was this year in a Challenger event on clay, in France. Ferguson to win this one as well. Jeremy Chardy to beat Marcos Baghdatis. 2.34 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Having a laugh at myself a bit for this one coz I'm in the Chardy hater group. Having seen Baghdatis lately have to back chardy at this price. The Cypriot has had enough of tennis this year and Chardy for once seems a bit more interested at the moment. Besides he has beaten Marcos both times they've played. Remember backing Jeremy in their match in Toronto. Baggy was tired back then. He'll be fresh this time but motivation is missing big time and Chardy certainly can take advantage of that. Florent Serra to beat Juan Monaco. 2.11 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Tried to play Monaco last week in Tokyo. It was hopeless. The gut is out of form and it doesn't look like he's coming back any time soon. Serra sucks on hard, but is capable of beating player like Monaco, especially when he has not won a match in months and is playing as poorly as he's doing right now. Mischa Zverev to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky. 2.20 @ Bwin (6/10) Stakhovsky has got only one thing on his mind this year - St.Petersburg, he wants to defend title there, other than that he's pretty much done for the season. Zverev had a good tournament in Metz, is now rested and ready to go. Mischa had two decent performances in qualies taking out both Andreev and Giraldo and I reckon he'll overcome Stakhy, too. Defense > attacking match-up keys for this match. Zverev to win.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Think you're right on Zverez mate. Stak seems off the boil again after a good patch a while back. Think I'll follow on the double aswell for small stakes...........:hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Already taken Gilles Simon and got three fairly modest ones on for the rest of tomorrow. - Under 19 games AH (Tsung-Ha Yang vs Jurgen Melzer) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle (5/10) I don't think Melzer will hang around here. He's playing a guy ranked in the low 200s from Chinese Taipei who bounces around the Challenger tour. Melzer is several levels above his opponent and despite his defeat to Troicki last week, he's playing some good stuff at the moment. I don't think Yang will have come up against such a hard-hitting lefty before and that'll make things tough for him. A 6-3 6-3 score seems perfectly feasible considering the gulf in quality between the two. - Feliciano Lopez (vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) @ 2.14 with Pinnacle (4/10) Tsonga has won these two's only meetings (all have gone the distance) but the Tsonga who is playing here is a pale imitation of the one we know. He is still in the hunt for London but, in many ways similar to Del Potro, he can't expect to come here not having played much and win straight off. Lopez may be much-maligned by a few here but he's a capable player with a huge serve. He'll come out here all guns blazing and look to take the game to the Frenchman, such is his attacking nature. He's the fitter player right now with more match practice, and I reckon that'll be the deciding factor in this one. I would recommend modest stakes but Lopez looks a nice bet for me. - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (vs Eduardo Schwank) x Fernando Verdasco (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 2.02 with Pinnacle (4/10) Completely agree with Psycho on Garcia-Lopez. He's had a few days to recover, is confident and playing good tennis. Schwank isn't comfortable on a quick surface. I can't really add any more on what has been said above, Garcia-Lopez should be too good here. -4 does seem a tad large on the handicap (could easily be 6-4 6-4) so going to double him up with Verdasco. The Spaniard has been poor recently but with London still up for grabs for him, I expect a big effort here in Shanghai. There's no doubt he's a good player but hasn't really fired in the second part of the season. His opponent has a big influence on me taking him. De Bakker's a clay courter by trade and is still learning on this surface. He's got a huge serve but his movement is suspect and I reckon Verdasco will make life uncomfortable for him. Reckon the Spaniard will take this. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Michael Llodra > David Ferrer 3.40 @ bet365 (7/10) Is there a chance for upset here or what do you think? Llodra's been crap a long time and should not be able to win this but I could also see him turning up with a stellar performance. He is a player who can beat Ferrer but if he can right now is unsure. Andreas Seppi > Marin Cilic 3.75 @ bet365 (7/10) A huge chance for Seppi here. He's beaten Cilic in Cincinnati qualifiers and in Croatia both on hardcourt before. Cilic is just not working since long time now. This screams upset a lot more then Llodra! Seppi to win!

Your Llodra bet looks of more interest now that the Beijing final has been held over. Ferrer will have to play on Tuesday so could be an element of fatigue. As for Seppi, the handicap looks playable for me. The Italian is still a player I am unsure of in terms of trust. He has the ability but can go missing. Cilic is in miserable form though. All the best with these though :ok

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Tommy Robredo > Tomas Berdych 2.37 @ bet365 (7/10) An upset is possible here no doubt. Berdych game is not working. Nothing is working for him but Robredo might have quite a chance to get his season even more on track. Can see Robredo turning up for this. Berdych is out of form and he's in danger of bowing out early again. H2H is 4-3 for Berdych but important note here is their last meeting. They met in Paris masters last year and Robredo won 4:6 4:6.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Caroline Wozniacki to beat Vera Zvonareva. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Couple reasons why I'm backing Caroline for this one. First of all, Vera sucks in the finals, it's a mental thing now. She's impressive in the matches before the final but when it comes to the big thing she's not there. And secondly, rain delay would only help Wozniacki. The same exact thing happened when they met in Montreal final. Wozniacki crushed Zvonareva 6-3, 6-2. Ok, it was semies and the final on the same day but bottom line here is that Wozzi is stronger mentally and would have prepared for the final better than Vera who I'd like to win this one but don't think it will happen. Angelique Kerber to beat Andrea Petkovic. 2.70 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Petkovic has not beaten Kerber in 5 attempts. Clearly something has to be wrong about the match-up and I can imagine what it is. Kerber has got very good and most importantly patient return game which makes Petkovic to go for shots she not necessarily wants to make. More often than not she ends up making huge amount of unforced errors and I can see the same thing happening all over again.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) One more in Linz today from me. Klara Zakopalova +3.5 AH vs Elena Vesnina. 1.99 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Vesnina will struggle against Zakopalova's defensive approach. The Czech player is very good at defending and her return game has got her to some nice results lately, especially getting to the final on the same surface in Copenhagen where she lost to Wozniacki. Vesnina is all about hitting big shots and not thinking much about it. That will let her down against player like Zakopalova. Actually fancy Zakopalova to win this one but will have just handicap which is a safer option as it could go either way but should be close one anyway.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Melzer clear fading material next round. 6-4 7-6 with nobody Yang. Either Fish or Istomin will have a walkover.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Melzer clear fading material next round. 6-4 7-6 with nobody Yang. Either Fish or Istomin will have a walkover.

yeah, I've been betting against certain players in the last few weeks and it works like a charm, others I may be looking to oppose depending on their opponents first round games are Tsonga and Garcia

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) I hope they will continue today.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Anyone knows,when is expekt to start playing?

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) They started.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

yeah' date=' I've been betting against certain players in the last few weeks and it works like a charm, others I may be looking to oppose depending on their opponents first round games are Tsonga and Garcia[/quote'] Completely agree with you and homonculus, Melzer and Garcia-Lopez looked ordinary today, and I'll be giving their matches next plenty of consideration. Not sure about Tsonga though, got a feeling he might kick on a bit after a good win today. We shall see though.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Unbelievable stuff from Verdasco. 5-2 up, set points on De Bakker's serve. Has not allowed a single break point until that. Guess what the top 10 player does....5-7 :wall

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Unbelievable stuff from Verdasco. 5-2 up' date=' set points on De Bakker's serve. Has not allowed a single break point until that. Guess what the top 10 player does....5-7 :wall[/quote'] I know mate, miserable stuff. Thought he might come back this week but wasn't to be. He's in a really bad place right now. Three defeats on the bounce in Asia. Zverev doing the business (followes Psycho's tip) and hopefully Simon will get the win to rescue what has been a car crash day so far.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Another bookie gift on the horizon - Stepanek (CZE) vs (CHN local) Bai. This Bai character is ranked 465 and had some nice results lately against rank #200-#300 players. Seems to me that under 18.5 is feasible, unless someone has info that this Bai got new fitness trainer and is able to defeat Melzer :-) Edit: OK, I pulled the trigger Stepanek vs Bai,Y under 18.5 @ Pinnacle 1.800 Stepanek did not play much tennis lately having a walkover with Nieminen and retirement with Chiudinelli. In Tokyo semi last week he lost with Monfils 36 36. Still he should be able to achieve at worst 63 63 result with Bai, ranked 465.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October)

Unbelievable stuff from Verdasco. 5-2 up' date=' set points on De Bakker's serve. Has not allowed a single break point until that. Guess what the top 10 player does....5-7 :wall[/quote']

Vedasco, Jurgen and Berdych are on my streaky player list but for some reason I felt Vedasco would take out De bakker who is way way below his level.He doesn’t have any weapons outside a solid return game to bother most top 10 players but Vedasco finds a way to lose in straight sets.

I agree Tsonga could kick on, but it will depend on the opponent because he is still a streaky player at the moment.

The only streaky players you can trust right now are Monfilis and to some extent Gasquet

[milano01]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) lol simon, faces his first break point and loses it straight away to lose the set, and then broken on his first serve game of the second set, congrats what a pro...

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Simon was just resigned towards the end of the second set, credit to Stan though, played a really well thought out match there.

[rogerspro]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) wawrinka was the much better player today. just on the wrong side.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Bookie completely skittled me today. I'll take my bagel and move on to tomorrow :sad

- Gilles Simon (vs Stanislas Wawrinka) @ 1.935 with Pinnacle (6/10) LOSS

Simon got demolished. Didn't see that one coming at all.

- Under 19 games AH (Tsung-Ha Yang vs Jurgen Melzer) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS

Completely underestimated Yang. Melzer's not playing that well at the minute.

- Feliciano Lopez (vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) @ 2.14 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS

Good performance for Tsonga, Lopez never really had a sniff.

- Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (vs Eduardo Schwank) x Fernando Verdasco (vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 2.02 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS

Garcia Lopez did the business but Verdasco didn't.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (11-17 October) Zverev was like Chardy today :D