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  1. #1
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    Default NRL 2012 - Round 7

    4pts Raiders +7.5pts @ 1.92 (IASBet)
    3pts Raiders - Most Metres Gained @ 2.50 (IASBet)
    3pts J. Hodges to score anytime @ 2.00 (IASBet)
    3pts Broncos Completion Under 77.5% @ 1.90 (IASBet)
    1pt Canberra - 17.5pts @ 11.00 (IASBet)


    OK, so quite a few bets on this game. I'll start with Peter Wallace. He has been playing exceptionally well in the opening rounds of the year, and his kick metres have really helped Brisbane get on the front foot. Ben Hunt is no slouch, and the former Toyota Cup POTY should do a good jb of filling the shoes of Wallace, but there is no substitute for experience. The Broncos will be playing with a halves pair that have very little First Grade experience between them. They will be desperate for their pack to give them plenty of room to work in. I honestly don't think Te'o being suspended will have a huge influence on the game, as the Broncos pack has more then enough quality to cover for losses like that. I have said most weeks that the Raiders do have a habit of running in points when they are in form, so I have put a sneaky point on a 10/1 shot as well.

    As for the other bets, the Raiders are ranked second in metres gained so far this season, and despite coming up against a decent pack in the Broncos, I see no reason why they should be priced out at 2.50. I find bookies tend to allocate a higher correlation between the odds of this market and the Head to Head market than is justified.

    The Broncos have played well but they have by no means been an error free side this year. They sit around mid-table when it comes to completions, and unless you are the Storm, completing close to 80% of sets is generally not the norm. Finally, I have gone with Justin Hodges to cross the stripe in this game. He is an extremely elusive centre and he is up against a player who is well known to have defensive deficiencies in Jarrod Croker. This seems like a real mismatch, and I would not be surprised at all to see the Broncos target this side of the Raiders defence tonight (just as the Cowboys did a couple weeks ago).

    4pts Dragons -9.5pts @ 2.70 (IASBet)


    Well the Knights haven't lived up to expectation so far this year, and they certainly struggled badly against a shockingly bad Eels outfit last weekend. Just about any other NRL team would have put 30+ on that Eels side, but Newcastle somehow managed to only score 14. The Dragons weren't much better, but they were playing in a fiercely contested derby game against the Sharks, who are on fire at the moment. I can't see the Knight forward pack putting up such a performance, particularly as the parochial Dragons home crowd should be able to win a few quick play the balls for their side, and maybe a penalty or two as well. I personally think the Knights are still well in the competition this year, but they will need to spend a few more rounds getting used to the new structure Wayne Bennett has them playing under.
    Last edited by Lahrio; 13-04-2012 at 07:43.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Dragons win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 centrebet
    Neither side in good form, with both showing inconcistencies in their play. Dragons have lost their last two games to the Broncos and Sharks, but like
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow Dragons win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 Broncos win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 Storm -13.5 @ 2.15 centrebet Storm
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Not a great night for me last night. I was disappointed that Hodges did everything but score a try (in fact he dropped one cold while he was already over the line!). On to a better day hopefully.
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    3pts Roosters - Under 74.5% Completions @ 1.90 (IASBet)
    2pts Cowboys 13+ @ 3.65 (IASBet)

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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Quote Originally Posted by Lahrio 3pts Roosters - Under 74.5% Completions @ 1.90 (IASBet) 2pts Cowboys 13+ @ 3.65 (IASBet) 5pts Storm Over 4.5 Tries @
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow Storm -13.5 @ 2.15 Roosters @ 2.30 Sea Eagles -15.5 @ 2.18 Record: 17-31 (-1.52) Warriors -5.5 @
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Sory for the late/short write-up.

    7pts Sharks - Eels Under 36pts @ 1.90 (IASBet)

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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

    Lol, they are scoring all over the place. Rebounds and all. I'll be lucy if they haven't gone over by HT.
    P/L Round 6: -17.30 units P/L Season: +16.32 units
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    Default Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7


    £200 Free Bet
    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow Warriors -5.5 @ 2.03 Sharks -7.5 @ 2.03 Panthers -1.5 @ 2.85 Record: 18-33 (-2.49)
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