Jump to content
Announcements
** October Poker League Result : 1st avongirl, 2nd McG, 3rd Rhino_Power **
** October Naps Competition Result: 1st internetmails, 2nd Donnyflyer, 3rd vangovin, 4th Peter York. KO Cup Winner mickyftm32. Most Winners waggy: **

Search the Community

Showing results for tags 'whoscored'.

  • Search By Tags

    Type tags separated by commas.
  • Search By Author

Content Type


Forums

  • Products & Feedback
    • Announcements, Feedback & Suggestions
  • Betting Competitions
    • Last Man Standing Competition
    • Football Tipster Competition
    • NAP of the Day Competition
    • Fantasy Football Competition - £100 Prize
  • Gaming
    • Poker
  • Racing
    • At The Races
    • At The Dogs
  • Sports
    • Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
    • Darts Predictions
    • Snooker Predictions
    • Cricket Predictions
    • Formula One Predictions
    • Boxing & UFC Predictions
    • Golf Betting Tips
    • NBA & Basketball Predictions
    • NFL Predictions
    • MLB & Baseball Predictions
    • Rugby League Predictions
    • Rugby Union Predictions
    • NHL & Ice Hockey Predictions
    • eSports Predictions
    • AFL & NRL Predictions
    • GAA Tips & Predictions
    • Table Tennis Predictions
    • Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
  • UK & Ireland Football Forums
    • Premier League Predictions
    • Championship Predictions
    • League 1, 2 & Scottish Predictions
    • Non League Predictions
    • FA Cup & Other Cup Predictions
    • Ireland & Wales Predictions
    • Footy Chat & Banter
    • ELO Ratings Discussion
  • European Football Forums
    • Champions League Predictions
    • Europa League Predictions
    • Europa Conference League Predictions
    • Spanish Football Predictions
    • German Football Predictions
    • Italian Football Predictions
    • French Football Predictions
    • Portugal Football Predictions
    • Belgian Football Predictions
    • Dutch Football Predictions
    • Greek Football Predictions
    • Turkish Football Predictions
    • Other European Leagues Football Predictions
  • International Football Forums
    • World Cup 2022 Tips & Predictions
    • Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
    • UEFA Nations League Predictions
    • Copa America 2024 Predictions
    • African Nations Cup 2023 Predictions
    • Other International Predictions
  • Scandinavia Football Forums
    • Norwegian Football Predictions
    • Danish Football Predictions
    • Swedish Football Predictions
    • Finnish Football Predictions
    • Icelandic Football Predictions
  • Africa & Middle East Football Forums
    • Israeli Football Predictions
    • Other Africa & Middle East Football Predictions
  • North & South American Football Forums
    • MLS Predictions
    • Brazilian Football Predictions
    • Argentinian Football Predictions
    • Copa Libertadores Predictions
    • Other South America Predictions
    • Other North America Predictions
  • Asian & Australian Football Forums
    • Australian Football Predictions
    • Chinese Football Predictions
    • Japanese Football Predictions
    • Asian Champions League Predictions
    • Other Australasia Predictions
  • Women's Football Forums
    • Womens Club Predictions
    • Womens International Predictions
  • Personal Quests
    • Betting Systems & Strategy
    • Glory Hunters
  • Chat Section
    • Bookie Chat

Find results in...

Find results that contain...


Date Created

  • Start

    End


Last Updated

  • Start

    End


Filter by number of...

Joined

  • Start

    End


Group


AIM


MSN


Website URL


ICQ


Yahoo


Jabber


Skype


Location:


Interests

Found 1 result

  1. Hello. I'm really excited to finally start my own thread after working on developing my betting model. I aim to constantly post my predictions and picks. From time to time, I will also monitor the accuracy of my picks compared to the market So, here are some brief details about my model and picks. About the model(s) Why logistic picks? Because the model that generates the probabilities for the outcomes is a multinomial logistic regression. It combines Elo ratings with with my own ratings developed with data from whoscored and data about injuries and suspensions. The sample used was last seasons from 2009 to 2015 for all covered leagues. There are two models that I use: the main difference between them is that the second one uses data about injuries and suspensions from whoscored. Because of that, the "Preview" page of the game needs to be available before generating predictions. Therefore, any prediction that is more than two days into the future is generated without injuries and suspensions data and from my tests they have lower accuracy (as measured by AUC metric). Bet selection I will post my model predictions and my picks. I will try not to have a rigid approach, say bet when the odds value is above X, I will also study a bit the games before placing bets. From my cross-validation tests, my optimal results where when probability difference between was at least 4-5% or the expected value of the bet was at least 10-15%. Usually, the second is my threshold, but I could make some exceptions from time to time. Leagues covered For now, I cover the top 5 European leagues and Championship. In the future I would like to add more leagues though. Odds The market odds are from Pinnacle as they are very easy to get from their API. However, I will try to look for higher odds at other bookmakers before placing the bets So, these are my predictions for the upcoming fixtures. Also, my first bets. Staking plan Not 100% sure, in principle level stakes. I might do exceptions for long shot games as they pose the greatest threat to the bank.
×
×
  • Create New...