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Over on another thread I lost shed loads attempting to profit from spread betting mini-performances. It got to be a bit of an obsession with bet after bet going against me. I'm abandoning mini-performances as a bad job and will attempt to pay off my notional debt by tackling much simpler and more straightforward football spread bets, namely superiorities and total goal markets. It also seems that Glory Hunters is a far more appropriate thread heading for my latest paper venture. Several hundred points to recoup before the season ends, so here goes nothin'. Total Goal spreads Burnley v Brighton BUY 2.1-2.3 Huddersfield v Everton BUY 2.05-2.25 Sheff Utd v Preston SELL 2.6-2.8(SPIN) Blackpool v Shrewsbury BUY 2.15-2.35 Bristol R v Gillingham SELL 2.45-2.65 Bury v Portsmouth SELL 2.45-2.65 Charlton v Blackburn SELL 2.45-2.65 Grimsby v Notts C SELL 2.45-2.65 Port Vale v Carlisle SELL 2.45-2.65 Superiority spreads Swansea v Chelsea Sell Away 1.0-1.2 Aston V v Derby Buy Home 0.4-0.6(SX) Accrington v Lincoln Buy Home 0.05-0.25 Chesterfield v Wycombe Sell Away 0.75-0.95 All quotes available at Spreadex and Sporting Index unless specified. Into battle I go.
Following closely on the heels of my China Super League spreads, we'll see how I can do with Japanese league football spreads; All 10 point bets GOAL SUPERIORITY Shimizu Shonan Bellmare 0.35 - 0.55 SELL V-Varen-Naqasaki Naqoja 0.2 - 0.4 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 0.25 - 0.45 SELL TOTAL GOALS Jubilo Vissel Kobe 2.45 - 2.65 BUY Veqalta Sendai Hiroshima 2.25 - 2.45 BUY Marinos Gamba 2.9 - 3.1 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 2.4 - 2.6 BUY All quotes are from Spreadex, can't see any J-League quotes with SPIN!
Pure speculation on my part, but thought I'd process a summer football programme to see me through my own football spread betting close season. I have no betting records for this, but based upon as many past results as I could muster (but not as many as I'd like) I'm chancing my arm on the following . . . All 10 point buy or sells for this weekend; Home Team Advantage Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1.2 (SPIN) SELL Guangzhou Evergrande v Hebei CFFC 0.55 - 0.75 BUY Total Goals Spread Shanghai Shenhua v Chongqing Lifan 2.85 - 3.05 BUY Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe 2.15 - 2.35 BUY
A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go. Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot. Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet. ** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.
These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs. So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere. Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15 BuyA PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11 BuyA Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8 BuyA Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10 BuyA Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15 BuyA Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH