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Written Thursday January 28th, 2021 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) We lost our lone official pick in the Conference Championship round, which dropped our postseason record against the spread (ATS) from 5-1 to 5-2. That’s still a great record! During the regular season, the picks went 36-31-4. So, overall, we now boast a 41-33-4 ATS record, a 55.4% win rate. Yay! It’s time for our final betting prediction of the season with the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tampa Bay Bucs in Super Bowl LV. Let’s do this! SUPER BOWL: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3 or -3.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCS Sharp bettors often place their bets not very long after the odds hit the board. Once the Conference Championship games were over, the line opened at 3.5 in favor of Kansas City. Early money went to the Bucs, which led the point spread to drop to three points. Since then, most of the action has gone on the Chiefs. From what I’ve read, the number of bets has seen a 3:1 ratio favoring Kansas City, while the total money wagered is even more tilted with a 4:1 ratio. All of this betting action tells me one thing: the wise guys took Tampa Bay, while the general public is hammering the Chiefs. Here is another interesting note: over the past 13 Super Bowls, the early action turned out to be right on 10 occasions. That’s right: sharp money has been a winner in 10 of the past 13 Super Bowls! That makes me want to side with the Bucs even more. I thought Tampa’s defensive line was super impressive in Green Bay. They sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, despite facing one of the top pass protecting offensive lines in football. They will now face a patchwork OL that will now be without their starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, who got hurt against the Bills during the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs were already missing their right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz, who has little chance of suiting up for the Big Game. And they have had to deal with the absence of their starting left guard, Kelechi Osemele, since October. All of those losses are a big blow when facing such a ferocious Bucs pass rush that finished 5th in sacks this season. The Bucs will be looking to avenge a 27-to-24 loss back in Week 12. In that game, the Chiefs stormed out of the gate by grabbing an early 17-0 lead through the first quarter. In that quarter alone, Tyreek Hill caught 7 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. What an incredible performance over just one quarter of play! Here are some noteworthy trends for you: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games as favorites, but 4-1 ATS as playoff favorites; Kansas City has beaten the spread just once over their last 9 games played on grass; Both teams have done well recently when squaring off with a team with a winning record: the Chiefs are 11-5 ATS and the Bucs 5-2 ATS under such circumstances; Tampa has beaten the spread the last four times they have been underdogs. In light of all of this, I am putting my money on Tampa against the spread. The best spread currently available after looking at 10 different online sportsbooks on January 28 is Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds (bwin). Official pick: Bucs +3.5 at -115 odds FIRST QUARTER TOTAL In the Super Bowl’s first quarter, we often see both teams studying each other. They take small jabs at each other, but rarely hit a knockout punch. Also, you see more often receivers dropping catchable balls or QBs throwing less accurate passes. It usually takes a bit of time before guys settle down. On defense, you see a lot of intensity. Players have been waiting two full weeks to finally hit somebody. For these reasons, I am leaning towards betting the “under” in the first quarter. Lean: Under 10.5 first quarter at -120 odds CRUSHING SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION BETS To me, the Super Bowl is like Christmas, but maybe not for the reasons that you might think of. Every year, the Super Bowl comes with a wide array of proposition bets. There are so many of them that there is NO WAY the sportsbooks can hope to have each market priced adequately. There will always be many soft lines. Last year, I traveled to Las Vegas so that I could place bigger bets. I spent three full days tracking the lines from many sportsbooks. I was the nerdy guy sitting on the floor of casinos, doing his calculations via a huge Excel spreadsheet. I ended up placing 11 bets, most of which having positive odds (which means they were underdogs to win). And yet, I finished with a 9-2 record and racking up $8,330 US in net profit. I will be at it once again this year, but from the comfort of my home. Unfortunately, COVID-19 will prevent me from heading to the sin city. I will spend countless hours tracking the lines from at least 10 sportsbooks and looking for the best edges. I am going to share a few picks on prop bets next week via a YouTube video, but you have the opportunity to receive ALL bets offering great value directly in your mailbox. Simply follow this link for details: https://www.professormj.com/products/super-bowl-lv-proposition-bets A big, big thank you for following my weekly NFL column every week, I appreciate you! Enjoy the Super Bowl my friend!!! Professor MJ https://youtu.be/hLvOVzufsgE
Written Wednesday January 20th, 2021 at 9 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) After going 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the NFL Wildcard Round, we went a perfect 3-0 last week! The playoffs have been very profitable to us so far with a 5-1 ATS record. Now, we have two great matchups on the menu for the Conference Championship games. I’ve got one official pick, and one lean for you. Also, I will conclude this article by telling you my plan regarding the Super Bowl proposition bets this year. Remember that I crushed Vegas bookies last season by coming back home with more than $8k in profit. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s picks for the NFC and AFC Championship games! CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #1: TAMPA BAY BUCS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) As I was watching the second half of the Bucs versus Saints game last week, I was thinking that neither team was very impressive. Both teams had ups and downs, especially on offense. In my mind, the winner would probably end up losing in Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. I love anticipating what the point spread will be on each game. In this case, I was expecting the Packers to be 4-point favorites, and that’s exactly how the line opened. At that price, I was comfortable betting Green Bay. Now that the line has dropped to 3.5, and then 3 (as of Wednesday morning, which is when I wrote this article) I am definitely siding with the team from the frozen tundra. Here are four arguments favoring Green Bay in this spot: Argument #1: The rest factor. The Packers will be at home for the third straight week, while the Bucs will be traveling for the third consecutive week. Argument #2: The revenge factor. Do you really want to face Aaron Rodgers a second time after you have crushed him earlier in the year? I don’t think so. Back in Week 6, Tampa hammered Matt LaFleur’s team by a 38-to-10 score. That’s the only game all season where Rodgers did not throw a single TD pass. Oh man, he will be super focused to get some payback! Argument #3: The matchup. Tampa’s defense ranked number one in the league against the run. That’s great, but they finished 18th in terms of passer rating allowed. That’s very bad news when facing Rodgers and company. I know that they held them in check earlier this season, but it’s not going to happen again. Argument #4: The extra day. Green Bay gets an additional day to rest and game plan after playing last Saturday’s first game of the day, while the Bucs played the late game Sunday. I could have added the cold weather, as it is expected to be -6 degrees Celsius at Lambeau Field. However, Tom Brady has played many games in the cold with the Pats, but the rest of his teammates might not enjoy the weather too much, though… So I guess that could be argument #4B! I do like the Packers enough to put some money at risk. Official pick: Packers -3 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #2: BUFFALO BILLS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) Here is how my point spread prediction went for this matchup: I was expecting the Chiefs to be favored by 6 points if Mahomes plays, while I anticipated K.C. to be 2.5- or 3-point favorites if Chad Henne is the starter. For this reason, I was shocked when the line opened at 2.5 since, in my mind, Mahomes had a 50-50 shot of suiting up for the AFC Championship game. Since then, the line moved to 3, but it is back at 2.5 with some sportsbooks. That completely changed my strategy. If the Bills had been 6-point underdogs, as I expected, I was going to put my money on them. But with such a small point spread, I believe the value lies on Kansas City. Don’t get me wrong: I believe Buffalo has enough talent to beat the Chiefs, even with Mahomes on the field. However, the Chiefs’ QB holds a 25-1 record since November 2019. That cannot be ignored. K.C. players also have more playoff experience. I wouldn’t mind betting Buffalo +6, but I don’t think putting money on Buffalo +3 is a good idea, let alone +2.5. Still, there are quite a few things going Buffalo’s way. First, they post a 7-1-2 record against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites (including 0-4 as home favorites). Also, don’t forget the famous revenge factor. Back in Week 6, Kansas City topped Buffalo 26-to-17, thanks to 245 rushing yards. The Bills simply couldn’t stop the running game. They have improved since then (as shown last week against the Ravens!), but that is still concerning. So, my final decision is to stay away from this game from a betting perspective due to conflicting arguments. However, if I was forced to bet, I would go with the Chiefs -3. At the time of writing, Sports Interaction has the Chiefs -2.5 at -112 odds, which is pretty tempting. Lean: Chiefs -3 CRUSHING SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION BETS Do you remember last year’s “Crushing Super Bowl Proposition Bets Project”, where I flew to Vegas a few days before the big game, so that I could place bigger bets and shop for the best lines? I had posted a series of seven videos where I detailed my adventure and showed you my betting tickets. Just to refresh your mind, I ended up making 11 bets; four of them were favorites, while seven were underdogs. In other words, my expected record on those plays was 4-7. Things played out almost perfectly as I finished with a 9-2 record, while racking up $8,330 USD in net profit. Some of you have already emailed me to ask whether I was going to do it again this year. That was the plan without a doubt, but COVID-19 will prevent me from making the trip, unfortunately. Do I really want to spend 3-4 days in Vegas without my girlfriend and kids, and then having to isolate myself for 14 more days without seeing them? Sports betting is a passion to me, but my family is important too. That being said, in terms of proposition bets, the Super Bowl is like Christmas to me. There are so many things you can wager on that sportsbooks cannot keep odds that are accurate on each bet all the time. Every year, there are TONS of weak lines that can be exploited. It’s pretty common that when the kickoff of the Super Bowl comes, all of my online sportsbook accounts are empty because I have wagered all of it on numerous proposition bets. And to be honest, I don’t remember a Super Bowl where I ended up with losses on those bets. Even though I won’t be headed to Vegas, I will still be keeping track of the lines from many online sportsbooks on all prop bets. I always use an Excel spreadsheet where I enter the lines from 10-20 bookies, which allows me to estimate accurately fair odds. It is then easy to spot lines that are out of whack, and therefore exploitable. Those are the lines that we want to hammer. I will find plenty of bargains for sure again this year. I will share a few of them via YouTube videos (maybe 3-5), while also offering the option of subscribing to a package where you receive ALL proposition bets that offer amazing value, as soon as I find them. I cannot promise a specific number of value wagers, but it should be at least 15-20. If you’re interested, you can sign up now by following this link: https://www.professormj.com/products/super-bowl-lv-proposition-bets Have fun this weekend! Professor MJ https://youtu.be/PQvZiu6Z-6o
Written Wednesday November 25th, 2020 at 4 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) AMAZING! We have two picks with the highest 5-star rating this week! That’s incredible, especially when you consider that we’ve had only three plays rated five stars in the entire 2020 season thus far. Remember that such confidence picks hold a 2-1 record this year. Since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago, we are 7-3 under such circumstances. After giving away ALL of my NFL picks this year, these two gems are available at a $100 fee. I’m so confident in those bets that I’m willing to make you this great offer: If both picks lose, you get your money back; If one pick loses and the other wins, you’re going to get my next 5-star pick for free, which should occur sometime later this season; If both picks win, everyone’s happy and richer! I don’t recommend that you wait any longer before getting those 2 awesome picks because the lines are likely to move against you. I already placed my bets because I suspect the lines will only get worse as money pours in. Simply follow this link. You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to have two 5-star picks during the same week! PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +7 VS MIAMI DOLPHINS Despite an 0-10 record, the Jets have been significantly tougher to beat of late. They fought hard and lost by 8 points or less in three of their past four contests: 18-10 vs Buffalo, 30-27 vs New England and 34-28 at the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Fins stumbled big time last week in Denver. They had been flying high during a five-game winning streak, but fell flat last week. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa even got benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick in order to try to spark a comeback, but to no avail. Head coach Brian Flores has already named Tua his Week 12 starter. Facing the weak Jets secondary is a good spot to rebound, but unlike what happened in Week 6 I do not believe New York will get shutout against Miami. You guessed it, the in-season revenge factor is coming into play here! Joe Flacco has done better than expected, especially since he got all three starting WRs on the field: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims. The last seven times the Jets have been established as home underdogs by oddsmakers, the Jets have beaten the spread five times. Notice that the Dolphins have owned the Jets in recent meetings, though. Indeed, they are posting a 5-0-1 ATS record in the past six games between these two clubs. Quick note: Miami has had to travel quite a bit in recent weeks. They played in Arizona, came back home for their bye week, and traveled all the way to Denver last week. I’m taking the Jets as 7-point underdogs. They fought hard against the Chargers last week, and there is no reason to believe they won’t battle hard again when facing a division rival. I might even put a small bet on over 44.5 points to be scored in that game (quick bonus for you!). PICK #4 (1 STAR): UNDER 44 POINTS NEW ORLEANS-DENVER I tip my hat off to Taysom Hill for playing a solid game against the Falcons last week. Unfortunately, Denver’s defense is a notch better than Atlanta’s. That’s particularly true of the pass defense: the Broncos rank 10th in terms of passer rating allowed. That should force the Saints to keep the ball on the ground more often, which runs the clock more quickly (good for unders). On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that Denver’s offense is having trouble putting up points on the board. They are 27th in the NFL in point scored per game. As for New Orleans’ defense, they have allowed the eigth-fewest points per game. This unit has been even stronger recently, having allowed an average of 8 points to the Bucs, the 49ers and the Falcons. In other words, an offensive outburst by the Broncos this Sunday is highly unlikely! Here is an astounding stat: the under is 17-4 the last 21 times the Broncos were at home facing a team with a winning record! PICK #5 (1 STAR): TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Stud defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was placed on the COVID-19 list Wednesday afternoon. He is in danger of missing the game, which would be a HUGE upgrade for Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s dangerous running game. The Titans were beaten 34-17 by the Colts a couple of weeks ago after leading 17-to-13 at halftime. A blocked punt late in the third quarter was the turning point in this game. I do expect Tennessee to get revenge this week. Philip Rivers got nicked up against the Packers and finished the game on a gimpy leg. Your body does not recover as quickly when you get near 40 years old and he may be bothered by this injury this Sunday. Even though the Titans hold a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine trips in Indy, I expect them to keep the game tight or even upset the Colts. The line shouldn’t be as high, in my opinion. Ryan Tannehill is just more reliable than Rivers, who tends to turn the ball over at bad times. And Derrick Henry is obviously a beast on Tennessee’s side. For these reasons, I’m going with the Titans +3.5 in Indy. UNOFFICIAL PICKS For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you: LEAN #1: Packers -8.5 vs Bears (You don’t want to bet against an angry Aaron Rodgers. That’s probably how he feels after a heart-breaking loss in Indy last week. He won’t take a division rival lightly. Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they lost a game straight up. Talk about rebounding nicely! I’m taking Green Bay despite Chicago being off their bye week. Nick Foles is hurt and bad); LEAN #2: 49ers +7 at Rams (San Francisco is getting 7 additional days of rest after their bye week, while the Rams lose one after playing the Monday nighter. 49ers likely to get a few key players back, including RB Raheem Mostert, WR Brandon Aiyuk, LT Trent Williams and DE Arik Armstead. Huge boost for them. Can Nick Mullens play better?). I hope you enjoyed this write up! Enjoy your weekend! Professor MJ If you wish to obtain the two high-confidence 5-star picks discussed in the video, please follow this link: https://www.professormj.com/products/two-5-star-nfl-picks-for-week-12-2020-season The betting tips are presented by Professor MJ, who teaches statistics at a Canadian university. Join other savvy sports bettors who are CRUSHING their bookies: Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ Link to exclusive mailing list (see bottom of the following page): https://www.professormj.com/pages/nfl-picks-week-12-2020-regular-season