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  1. A simple premise, as of 1st Jan I'll start posting an indicative stake for all the selections I post on here (whether in a personal quest or the thread for a specific sport) and I'll track the performance in here so I know whether or not they've been profitable. I've been posting a few more footy bets lately and, after a bit of a barren spell, have found a few decent winners. Rather than having a general sense of my posted bets doing well or badly I thought I'd track them so I know for sure. I'd expect them to be profitable over the course of a year (ever the optimist) but will expo
  2. A new system from me which I haven't tested before. A total mixed bag of backs, lays, draws etc. although I will record how each "mini-system" performs individually. Qualifying selections are based on info gleaned from the fantastic CGM Bet tool. The only issue I have is that the tool takes it's odds from the usual bookmakers, so the lay prices for my lay bets will often be higher from Betfair which may distort my figures for the lays. I'll take each lay bet individually, and will note if the bet was unmatched, if I look for a better price and look to let the bet go in-running in order to rea
  3. From today until the end of the English season I'll be setting out Excel Solver selections for correct scores from the English leagues and putting a notional £10 bet on each one (that will run into one hellofa stake total by the end). Experience this season has shown that the National league is not a happy hunting ground for correct score picks so this exercise will concentrate on Premier, Championship, League One & League Two. I'll publish the National League picks anyway (I have it all set up so no hassle) but they'll be just for curiosity value and not part of the betting returns.
  4. Been doing this for a while , so basically it’s simple , £1 on bet 1 of wins the whole on the next bet and so on. Ill be using the asian handicap goal line at halftime on football games on BET365. Will be betting on odds of 1.30 at least Here we go 👍
  5. I use a statistical model to find value bets, which has been working for me. Since September 2014 I have achieved an 80% strike rate with average odds of 1.42 (representing great value). It's purely based on science and mathematics which elimates bias. What is the highest strike rate you have experienced?
  6. First of all I need to start with my “story”, Now I am almost 24 years old, almost 2 years ago I was in a real bad situation, I had financial problems so I started to bet on really high odds, I was betting on 12-13 matches and everytime 2 or 3 games were loss, I was telling to my best friend everyday that I will take the big pot soon, so oneday happened and I have won almost 20.000 euro with only 5 euro (2.5 on each ticket…the money didn’t last long because I was stupid…ofc I bought myself a car, a nice phone, clothes, paid all debts and stuffs…but money gone…I wasn’t depressed, I started to h
  7. After winning 2 longshot doubles last week on the same day i have decided to start a thread. I will be starting with £8. No research required for this strategy. The only rule for this thread is for each bet the total odds have to be at least 15/1. There will be an update every 8 bets. here is my winning bets from last week .......... Fingers crossed i can get a couple more winners like this
  8. Im going to be starting with a bank of £20. Each bet will be 5% or 10% of bankroll depending on odds and confidence. Matches will be fully researched using soccer 24 website. I am only allowed to place a maximum of 1 bet at any given time. This means i can NOT have 2 bets running at the same time. Odds have to be at least 1.40 Wish me luck
  9. Hi I present to you my predictions from my software. There are 3 types predictions Over 1.5, Over 2.5, & Home Wins I hope these to be useful to anyone. Any questions I do my best to reply. good luck 28/10/2018 Predictions Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 1.5 match goals) Danish SAS-Ligaen Hobro IK v Vejle Italy Serie A Genoa v Udinese Spanish Segunda Division Extremadura UD v Albacete Greek Super League Panetolikos v Asteras Tripolis Spanish Primera Division Alavés v Villarreal Spanish Segunda Division Elche v Re
  10. I will be betting on the market "win either half". I will be staking 10% of my bankroll per bet most of the time sometimes 20% will be staked but only on lower odds games that im confident with. I will be starting with a total balance of £10. I will be using the soccerway website for research. I will also give reasoning behind my selections Fingers crossed this method goes well and i can quit my job lmao IF "win either half" MARKET IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A SELECTION DUE THE GAME NOT BEING HIGH PROFILE ENOUGH I WILL BACK THE "double chance" MARKET. I WILL BE UPDATING TOTAL BALANCE EVER
  11. I've been experimenting with artificial intelligence engines in an attempt to formulate a profitable strategy in the correct scores markets. Beating the market odds though is never going to be an easy task. The current stage of this research has reached a point where I'm combining three models to take a consensus of them all to indicate highly rated home wins, draws or aways. One model looks at the home team's record and ranks the chances of H,D or A, a second performs the same task with the away side's record, and a final model that looks at both records to reach a conclusion. Because of
  12. Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves. This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find o
  13. Next Tuesday, 26 of June, Orgryte is going to play against Jonkopings in the Superettan league of Sweden. Orgryte plays at home and is now the 4th in the league. At home they are a strong team and they all ready score 13 goals and only sofer 5 goals in 6 games. Jonkopings is in the 11th place of the table and in 13 games they have scored less than 1 goal per game. My bet for this game is 1X and less than 3.5 goals in the game, with an odd of 1.78 (1xbet). Good bets.
  14. Next Sunday, 24 of June, New York City is going to play against Toronto. According with my study New York City, will win this game, because in the last 17 games at home, they only lose 1 game and draw in 4 games. In the other hand Toronto in the last 11 games away, this year, they just won 2 games. So, my prediction for this game it's a home win, with an odd of 1.77 (1xbet). Good bets.
  15. Next Sunday, 24th of June, in Brazil series B one of the games is CRB against PAYSANDU. According my analysis CRB, in the last 17 games at home only lost 4, that means they have 76,5% of wins or draw. In the other hand PAYSANDU, in the last 17 games away only has 6 victories, that means only 35% of wins when they play away. My tip for this game is CRB HA(0) with an odd of 1.61 (1xbet). Good bets.
  16. Over on another thread I lost shed loads attempting to profit from spread betting mini-performances. It got to be a bit of an obsession with bet after bet going against me. I'm abandoning mini-performances as a bad job and will attempt to pay off my notional debt by tackling much simpler and more straightforward football spread bets, namely superiorities and total goal markets. It also seems that Glory Hunters is a far more appropriate thread heading for my latest paper venture. Several hundred points to recoup before the season ends, so here goes nothin'. Total Goal spreads Burnley v B
  17. Following closely on the heels of my China Super League spreads, we'll see how I can do with Japanese league football spreads; All 10 point bets GOAL SUPERIORITY Shimizu Shonan Bellmare 0.35 - 0.55 SELL V-Varen-Naqasaki Naqoja 0.2 - 0.4 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 0.25 - 0.45 SELL TOTAL GOALS
  18. Pure speculation on my part, but thought I'd process a summer football programme to see me through my own football spread betting close season. I have no betting records for this, but based upon as many past results as I could muster (but not as many as I'd like) I'm chancing my arm on the following . . . All 10 point buy or sells for this weekend; Home Team Advantage Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1.2 (SPIN) SELL Gu
  19. Hi everyone. I'm new to Punters Lounge and the forum. This is my first post. I'm totally impressed by the logic behind the compilation of the football ratings but I wonder if there is any data available on the accuracy of the ratings to predict results. If there is, please steer me towards it. The ratings seem to have performed really well for this latest round of premier league matches 3-5 Feb. Do I keep my own records on the ratings and the results or can I access some data on their historical performance ?
  20. A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go. Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot. Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet. ** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each go
  21. So im going to start with £10 and placing £2 per bet. For every £10 made i will add £1 to the stake. For example when I reach £20 i will bet £3, and when i reach £30 I will bet £4 and so on. Odds are not fixed and i will be betting on every market whether that be the overs or for the team to win. I will be using a site called "a football report" to decide which games to bet on. There will be an update every 7 bets showing total profit *These updates have stopped around bet 50 as it was getting confusing*
  22. Hi All I'm looking for 4 or 5 serious punters to make up a football Goliath bet syndicate. Participants must be a) knowledegable about any league/leagues.b) successful punters in their own right, c) reliable posters with staying power. The aim: To use a panel of punters to provide selections for a Goliath bet every saturday of the football season. A Goliath uses 8 selections to provide 247 bets. (Google it!) How to achieve this?: Most of us, if we look carefully, can find, say, 2 selections with odds around 2.0 that will win. This can be WLD, O/U 1.5/2.5/3.5, BTTS, To win + BTTS
  23. I will be starting with £5 and betting on singles. i will be betting pre match using soccer 24 for previous results and where the team is in the table and in play using the bet 365 match stats for guidance. Every bet must be £1 placed. Odds will be anything as long as it looks good
  24. For those of you who don't venture out of the Poker Forum can I highlight a couple of our free to enter tipster competitions. If you like footy why not try our Football Tipster Competition. We have a new season starting next week, 10th March. It's free to play, with added cash at the end of the season, basically pick a bet or combination each week and beat the other players in your league. If you'd like to join in you need to show your interest here so the new leagues can be set up If horses are more your thing we're running a Cheltenham Tipster Competition The
  25. These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs. So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere. Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla
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