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Found 29 results

  1. I use a statistical model to find value bets, which has been working for me. Since September 2014 I have achieved an 80% strike rate with average odds of 1.42 (representing great value). It's purely based on science and mathematics which elimates bias. What is the highest strike rate you have experienced?
  2. How to get a SHARK win

    First of all I need to start with my “story”, Now I am almost 24 years old, almost 2 years ago I was in a real bad situation, I had financial problems so I started to bet on really high odds, I was betting on 12-13 matches and everytime 2 or 3 games were loss, I was telling to my best friend everyday that I will take the big pot soon, so oneday happened and I have won almost 20.000 euro with only 5 euro (2.5 on each ticket…the money didn’t last long because I was stupid…ofc I bought myself a car, a nice phone, clothes, paid all debts and stuffs…but money gone…I wasn’t depressed, I started to have more confidence…until few days ago I haven’t won any subtantial sum, of course I had won few times around 1000-2000 euro…but no more…Now I was really depressed for my ex and wanted to get her back so the only way was to proove her I can be someone…and this is how I won almost 450.000 euro with this strategy, with 20 euro on 30 tickets all the same. THE STRATEGY: From What I learned in past years is that there are always surprises, how you can guess this surprises ? Is simple, a team can’t win or lose forever. Let’s take 5 leagues you know the better, in my case Bundesliga, Premier League, Seria A, LaLiga, Ligue 1. Seperate the leagues in 3 tiers. Tier 3 – Will get out of lose streak HOME agaist a tier 3 or tier 2 if they have lose or too much wins. This tier won’t win too much so is very probably after 2-3 wins to lose, they can end a win streak just agaist a tier 2 or tier 1. Tier 2 – This teams are balanced, so they will get out of win streak HOME just when the adverasry have won their last game and they are Tier 2 or 1. They will get out of WIN streak AWAY agaist any team have a big streak lose. They will got out of LOSE streak agaist a TIER 1 home if the the TIER 1 have too many WIN ! Tier 1 – This are the most dangerous but the best profits, this teams after they have a LOSE streak and their next game is home agaist any team they will win for sure, and if they have too much wins they will get out of it agaist a TIER 1 who have lost their last games.After lost streak of tier 1 they will have a win streak !If a tier 3 won a game home and their next game is away and is agaist a tier 3 with many win they will probably win or draw.If a tier 2 have too many lose they will end it agaist a tier 3 in any case, agaist tier 2 if they have lost or draw their last game and agaist a tier 1 if it has too much wins If a team won away after a lose streak they will win the home or draw if the team is just 1 tier above. Never combine 2 of the same from the same league, never have more than 2 BIG surprises on your ticket. Combine them inteligently, where is chance to end that streak, this is all about the law of probability and the morale that a team have and sometimes this is the most important thing. GoalGoal – Is very good to combine those games with “both team to score”, choose carefuly those games especially if the both team score a lot but they didn’t take any goal in last games. Also where you have doubts on Ex: Man City – Man United 1, you can combine with 1 on a ticket and with GG on other ticket ! So I combined games in this way and reapeated my ticket 30 times with 20 euro a total evert week for a year and some and I have won almost 450K euro ! I wish you to accomplish your dreams and also to make your dear ones happy with those money ! Cheers
  3. After winning 2 longshot doubles last week on the same day i have decided to start a thread. I will be starting with £8. No research required for this strategy. The only rule for this thread is for each bet the total odds have to be at least 15/1. There will be an update every 8 bets. here is my winning bets from last week .......... Fingers crossed i can get a couple more winners like this
  4. Im going to be starting with a bank of £20. Each bet will be 5% or 10% of bankroll depending on odds and confidence. Matches will be fully researched using soccer 24 website. I am only allowed to place a maximum of 1 bet at any given time. This means i can NOT have 2 bets running at the same time. Odds have to be at least 1.40 Wish me luck
  5. Hi I present to you my predictions from my software. There are 3 types predictions Over 1.5, Over 2.5, & Home Wins I hope these to be useful to anyone. Any questions I do my best to reply. good luck 28/10/2018 Predictions Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 1.5 match goals) Danish SAS-Ligaen Hobro IK v Vejle Italy Serie A Genoa v Udinese Spanish Segunda Division Extremadura UD v Albacete Greek Super League Panetolikos v Asteras Tripolis Spanish Primera Division Alavés v Villarreal Spanish Segunda Division Elche v Real Zaragoza Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 2.5 match goals) Dutch Eredivisie Willem II v FC Utrecht Belgian Jupiler League Standard Liege v Genk Swiss Raiffeisen Super League Xamax v FC Luzern Swiss Raiffeisen Super League St Gallen v FC Zurich Swiss Raiffeisen Super League FC Lugano v Thun Spanish Primera Division Barcelona v Real Madrid Dutch Eredivisie AZ v Heerenveen Swedish Allsvenskan IFK Norrkoping v Östersunds FK Norwegian Tippeligaen Odd BK v Tromso Belgian Jupiler League Eupen v Anderlecht German Bundesliga Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen French Ligue 1 Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Home Wins) Dutch Eredivisie Ajax v Feyenoord Danish SAS-Ligaen FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus Turkey Super Lig Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Portuguese Liga FC Porto v Feirense Greek Super League AEK Athens v Aris Salonika Spanish Primera Division Sevilla FC v SD Huesca Portuguese Liga Sporting CP v Boavista
  6. I will be betting on the market "win either half". I will be staking 10% of my bankroll per bet most of the time sometimes 20% will be staked but only on lower odds games that im confident with. I will be starting with a total balance of £10. I will be using the soccerway website for research. I will also give reasoning behind my selections Fingers crossed this method goes well and i can quit my job lmao IF "win either half" MARKET IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A SELECTION DUE THE GAME NOT BEING HIGH PROFILE ENOUGH I WILL BACK THE "double chance" MARKET. I WILL BE UPDATING TOTAL BALANCE EVERY 5 BETS EVERY 5 BETS I WILL CALCULATE THE PERCENT OF MY NEW BANKROLL AND APPLY TO STAKE
  7. I've been experimenting with artificial intelligence engines in an attempt to formulate a profitable strategy in the correct scores markets. Beating the market odds though is never going to be an easy task. The current stage of this research has reached a point where I'm combining three models to take a consensus of them all to indicate highly rated home wins, draws or aways. One model looks at the home team's record and ranks the chances of H,D or A, a second performs the same task with the away side's record, and a final model that looks at both records to reach a conclusion. Because of this consensus far fewer selections are generated, the majority of which are for Home wins, Away wins to a lesser extent and I've yet to see them all agreeing on a Draw ~ maybe justifying my view that a tied result is the most difficult results market to beat. However, sticking with my original quest of correct scores, as well as a straight H, D or A bet, each selection is also bet as a correct score using the league's most common scoreline. I'll use the same level stake for each wager, because HDA has a high strike with poor odds (most will be odds-on, but I'm looking for 80% strike) whereas correct scores have better odds but a lower strike rate. My aim is a minimum 10% yield for each bet type. But, the best laid plans . . . Bets for this weekend are; ENG Middlesbro v Swansea 1-0 ENG Nottm Forest v Rotherham 1-0 BRA Flamengo v Ath Mineiro 1-0 CHI Dalian Aerbing v Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 10 pt home win on each. 10 pt correct score on each.
  8. Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves. This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out. I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed. Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win. Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies) CHILE 18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59 18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57 18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51 19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52 19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05 19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99 19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45 SWEDEN 18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16 19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36 19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13 19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4 19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53 20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64 20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41 JAPAN 19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45 19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3 19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03 19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05 19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53 19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32 19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55 19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13 19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22 CHINA 18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31 18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29 18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4 18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71 19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57 19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01 I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway; BRAZIL OddsPortal average odds 18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46 18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58 19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62 19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74 19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92 19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2 19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08 19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19 19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88 21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91
  9. Next Tuesday, 26 of June, Orgryte is going to play against Jonkopings in the Superettan league of Sweden. Orgryte plays at home and is now the 4th in the league. At home they are a strong team and they all ready score 13 goals and only sofer 5 goals in 6 games. Jonkopings is in the 11th place of the table and in 13 games they have scored less than 1 goal per game. My bet for this game is 1X and less than 3.5 goals in the game, with an odd of 1.78 (1xbet). Good bets.
  10. Next Sunday, 24 of June, New York City is going to play against Toronto. According with my study New York City, will win this game, because in the last 17 games at home, they only lose 1 game and draw in 4 games. In the other hand Toronto in the last 11 games away, this year, they just won 2 games. So, my prediction for this game it's a home win, with an odd of 1.77 (1xbet). Good bets.
  11. Next Sunday, 24th of June, in Brazil series B one of the games is CRB against PAYSANDU. According my analysis CRB, in the last 17 games at home only lost 4, that means they have 76,5% of wins or draw. In the other hand PAYSANDU, in the last 17 games away only has 6 victories, that means only 35% of wins when they play away. My tip for this game is CRB HA(0) with an odd of 1.61 (1xbet). Good bets.
  12. Over on another thread I lost shed loads attempting to profit from spread betting mini-performances. It got to be a bit of an obsession with bet after bet going against me. I'm abandoning mini-performances as a bad job and will attempt to pay off my notional debt by tackling much simpler and more straightforward football spread bets, namely superiorities and total goal markets. It also seems that Glory Hunters is a far more appropriate thread heading for my latest paper venture. Several hundred points to recoup before the season ends, so here goes nothin'. Total Goal spreads Burnley v Brighton BUY 2.1-2.3 Huddersfield v Everton BUY 2.05-2.25 Sheff Utd v Preston SELL 2.6-2.8(SPIN) Blackpool v Shrewsbury BUY 2.15-2.35 Bristol R v Gillingham SELL 2.45-2.65 Bury v Portsmouth SELL 2.45-2.65 Charlton v Blackburn SELL 2.45-2.65 Grimsby v Notts C SELL 2.45-2.65 Port Vale v Carlisle SELL 2.45-2.65 Superiority spreads Swansea v Chelsea Sell Away 1.0-1.2 Aston V v Derby Buy Home 0.4-0.6(SX) Accrington v Lincoln Buy Home 0.05-0.25 Chesterfield v Wycombe Sell Away 0.75-0.95 All quotes available at Spreadex and Sporting Index unless specified. Into battle I go.
  13. Following closely on the heels of my China Super League spreads, we'll see how I can do with Japanese league football spreads; All 10 point bets GOAL SUPERIORITY Shimizu Shonan Bellmare 0.35 - 0.55 SELL V-Varen-Naqasaki Naqoja 0.2 - 0.4 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 0.25 - 0.45 SELL TOTAL GOALS Jubilo Vissel Kobe 2.45 - 2.65 BUY Veqalta Sendai Hiroshima 2.25 - 2.45 BUY Marinos Gamba 2.9 - 3.1 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 2.4 - 2.6 BUY All quotes are from Spreadex, can't see any J-League quotes with SPIN!
  14. Pure speculation on my part, but thought I'd process a summer football programme to see me through my own football spread betting close season. I have no betting records for this, but based upon as many past results as I could muster (but not as many as I'd like) I'm chancing my arm on the following . . . All 10 point buy or sells for this weekend; Home Team Advantage Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1.2 (SPIN) SELL Guangzhou Evergrande v Hebei CFFC 0.55 - 0.75 BUY Total Goals Spread Shanghai Shenhua v Chongqing Lifan 2.85 - 3.05 BUY Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe 2.15 - 2.35 BUY
  15. Hi everyone. I'm new to Punters Lounge and the forum. This is my first post. I'm totally impressed by the logic behind the compilation of the football ratings but I wonder if there is any data available on the accuracy of the ratings to predict results. If there is, please steer me towards it. The ratings seem to have performed really well for this latest round of premier league matches 3-5 Feb. Do I keep my own records on the ratings and the results or can I access some data on their historical performance ?
  16. A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go. Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot. Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet. ** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.
  17. So im going to start with £10 and placing £2 per bet. For every £10 made i will add £1 to the stake. For example when I reach £20 i will bet £3, and when i reach £30 I will bet £4 and so on. Odds are not fixed and i will be betting on every market whether that be the overs or for the team to win. I will be using a site called "a football report" to decide which games to bet on. There will be an update every 7 bets showing total profit *These updates have stopped around bet 50 as it was getting confusing*
  18. Hi All I'm looking for 4 or 5 serious punters to make up a football Goliath bet syndicate. Participants must be a) knowledegable about any league/leagues.b) successful punters in their own right, c) reliable posters with staying power. The aim: To use a panel of punters to provide selections for a Goliath bet every saturday of the football season. A Goliath uses 8 selections to provide 247 bets. (Google it!) How to achieve this?: Most of us, if we look carefully, can find, say, 2 selections with odds around 2.0 that will win. This can be WLD, O/U 1.5/2.5/3.5, BTTS, To win + BTTS or any handicap. I know I can easily find 2, maybe 3 selections (my personal trixies are well into profit). If we can find 4 or 5 punters total do do the same, then make up a Goliath bet every week we should be able to make some dosh. The mechanics: Say 5 punters provide 2 selections each. This allows for duplicates or the odd duffer! We all vote on which final 8 we should use. We run a league table of the selections. After a few rounds the punter who is bottom of the league has his selections left out until he moves back up, thus ensuring that the poorest tipsters selections are not used. This won't be a matter of opinion but an actual fact! If we have say 6 members not 4 or 5 then the same criteria will decide selections. The aim will be to provide 2 selections with odds of 2.0 or more. A selection below 2 can be chosen, but the 2 selections must average 2, i.e. 1st @ 1.95, 2nd @ 2.05. Hopefully the odd draw will figure with odds above 3. What can we expect? 8 correct @ 2.0 returns £650 to stake of 0.10p x 247 (24.70). 7 correct returns £217, 6 correct returns £71 and 5 correct = money back. Any less than this and its a non starter! How we collect stakes and place bets needs to be addressed. (If we are as succesful as I think we should be, some accounts may be in jeopardy!!) I realise this may be the wrong time of year to start, but the ball has to start rolling some time and we may just need to get things sorted before next season. Things to sort: Do we do this publicly? or do we pm selections and keep it in house? If interested please reply to thread or pm me.
  19. I will be starting with £5 and betting on singles. i will be betting pre match using soccer 24 for previous results and where the team is in the table and in play using the bet 365 match stats for guidance. Every bet must be £1 placed. Odds will be anything as long as it looks good
  20. Free Tipster Competitions

    For those of you who don't venture out of the Poker Forum can I highlight a couple of our free to enter tipster competitions. If you like footy why not try our Football Tipster Competition. We have a new season starting next week, 10th March. It's free to play, with added cash at the end of the season, basically pick a bet or combination each week and beat the other players in your league. If you'd like to join in you need to show your interest here so the new leagues can be set up If horses are more your thing we're running a Cheltenham Tipster Competition The Festival starts on 13th March and you'll find all the information you need in the At The Races Forum . All racecards and form and betting information will also be on our Cheltenham dedicated site. Happy tipping
  21. These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs. So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere. Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15 BuyA PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11 BuyA Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8 BuyA Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10 BuyA Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15 BuyA Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH
  22. Red Devils Laying 3-3 (17/18)

    Starting a new thread for the new football season hopefully with some success with a Starting Bank of £475
  23. Hi guys Came across this article on Medium from new bookie MustardBet.com, which looks at whether moving stadium has an impact on a team’s performance. Really interesting stuff. They look at home goals as an indicator in particular. Definitely something to bear in mind with Spurs next season... Have a look anyway Cheers
  24. 19:45 Livingston v Stenhousemuir "Over 2.5 Goals in 67.86% of Stenhousemuir games and 75% in Livingston's games, last 2 head to head games 4 or mores scored. Over 2.5 Total Goals Pre-match odds 1.62 Only place bet on the 10th minute InPlay, £100 if goal is scored in first 10 mins, normally no bet move on, but keep an eye on game, if game is still under 2.5 goals around 70-80 min, place smaller bet of £40 that there will be one more goal, this bet is placed regardless of first bet or not. About me: Betting horse racing and football for over 10 years. Last 6 years I've managed to be profitable month after month on Football that's played around the world. I like to bet big with high strike rates. 75% - 80% Strike Rate Odds Range from 1.30 - 2.0 Average odds 1.65 ADDITIONAL BETS 70-80min InPlay Odds range 2.5 - 4.0 Average odds 3.0
  25. Aguero aggression

    Don't you think a 4 match ban is enough as the ruthless behavior of Aguero is the outcome of goal trailing frustration. I would rather ban him for 2 months or so.