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Written Thursday October 22nd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) This week we’ve got just our second 5-star play of the 2020 season! The only other one was Arizona +7 against the 49ers in Week #1, a bet that easily covered since the Cards won the game straight up by a margin of four points. Such picks rated 5 stars have done very well since I started this “Professor MJ” brand a few years ago. That being said, I’m not suggesting to bet your house on it. You’ll never hear me talk about “the lock of the century” or “100% guaranteed winner” or any similar bull$$hit. There is always risk involved. Bet at your own risk and never bet an amount that you cannot afford to lose. PICK #1 (5 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +13 VS BUFFALO BILLS Wow, picking the lowly Jets as a five-star play is pretty bold, isn’t it? Adam Gase’s team is 0-6 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year. Since 1985, six teams have started the season with six straight losses both SU and ATS. How did these teams fare in the remainder of their season? They went 34-24 ATS, a 58.6% win rate. I like the Jets for many other reasons. The rest factor is in favor of New York since the Bills are coming off a Monday night game. Also, NFL teams tend to do very well in the rematch against a division rival after losing the first meeting of the season. In this case, Buffalo won 27-17 in Week #1, which makes the Jets a good play based on this betting angle. Finally, the Bills have been struggling a lot recently. They blew a 25-point lead against the Rams before escaping with the win, thanks to a questionable pass interference penalty on fourth down in the final drive. They got hammered 42-16 against a depleted Titans team two weeks ago. Last week, losing 26-17 against the Chiefs may not look bad on paper, but if you watched the game you know what I’m talking about. The Bills were out of sync on offense, where Josh Allen looked more like the 2018 or 2019 version of himself. And their defense was gashed on the ground by allowing 5.3 yards per carry. This unit was supposed to be among the league’s best, but they an average of 28 points per game. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has a shot to be back under center. He is a big improvement over Joe Flacco, and he would finally have some weapons around him with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and maybe rookie Denzel Mims who could make his NFL debut. Some bookies have already lowered their spread to 12, but at the time I’m making this video BetOnline still has 13. This is where I placed my bet. I really like New York to cover in this one. PICK #2 (3 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 AT DENVER BRONCOS Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, Kansas City holds an 8-1 record ATS. If you focus on games played in Denver only, the Chiefs have beaten the spread on six consecutive occasions. Sure, Kansas City loses one day of rest after playing the Monday nighter. But in my opinion, elite teams fare well when facing adversity. They are a well-coached team and it won’t affect them that much. The Broncos are coming off a nice upset win in New England. Quarterback Drew Lock made two incredibly bad decisions that almost gave the game away, but he should be thankful that his defense saved the day. Denver’s offense struggled most of the day and couldn’t score more than 18 points despite the Pats turning the ball over three times. They won’t be able to keep up with KC’s offense, who are unlikely to take them lightly, considering it’s a divisional game. PICK #3 (3 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +4 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS I feel like the public is getting overexcited following Tampa’s convincing win over the Packers. It was indeed an impressive outing where emotions were high, which makes this non-conference matchup a trap game for them. Las Vegas is also coming off their bye week, which is always a nice advantage. Tampa’s top three receivers (Evans-Godwin-Miller) are all likely to play, but are nursing injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea for the rest of the year was a big blow and is an underrated loss for this squad. They also have three good guys on defense who are listed as questionable: LB Lavonte David and DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston. The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs, the Saints and the Panthers, while losing to Buffalo and New England. In other words, there wasn’t a single easy opponent (Carolina was expected to be weak, but they are off to a nice start). I’m taking the Raiders as home underdogs here. PICK #4 (1 STAR): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS Seattle is coming off their bye week, while the Cards lose one day of preparation after playing the Monday night game. Arizona also had to travel on three straight weeks prior to this week, which isn’t easy. I’m pretty sure the Seahawks remember the last time they faced Kliff Kingsbury’s squad: a 27-13 home loss in Week #16 that hurt their chances of clinching a first-round bye. Payback time! Over the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, the road team has a 9-1-1 record ATS. Please note that the “under” was a winning bet in each of the last five matchups. As mentioned last week, I also like to back road favorites coming off a bye week. A reminder that such teams showed a jaw-dropping 15-1-2 ATS record over four seasons (they went 1-1 last week though). Best of luck with your plays and I’ll see you again next week! Professor MJ https://www.youtube.com/c/ProfessorMJ/featured Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79 FB: ProfessorMJ www.professormj.com
Written Thursday October 15th, 2020 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) The picks went a perfect 3-0 last week! Let’s keep rolllllling!#D PICK #1 (4 STARS): GREEN BAY PACKERS PICK’EM AT TAMPA BAY BUCS Over a four-year period, road favorites coming off a bye week posted an impressive 17-2-2 record against the spread (ATS). That’s impressive! Granted, Tampa is coming off a Thursday night game, but the Packers still benefit from four more days of rest. Green Bay has been playing at an extremely high level, especially their offense that has been firing on all cylinders despite playing most of the year without one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Davante Adams. He is likely to be back on the field this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers’ offense has scored between 30 and 43 points in all of their four matchups. Take a look at Green Bay’s margins of victories this year: 9, 21, 7 and 14. In other words, the closest contest was a 7-point game. Meanwhile, I’m not sold on the Bucs yet. They hold a good 3-2 record, but they seem to lack consistency. Their offense looks great at times, but stalls and turns the ball over too often. And did you see Tom Brady last week who thought there was another down left when in fact the game was over? That’s a rookie mistake. The Packers were 2.5-point favorites last Tuesday before the line dropped to 0 on Thursday despite Davante Adams and nose tackle Kenny Clark being upgraded from questionable to probable. Thank you very much for the price reduction, I’ll take the Packers! PICK #2 (3 STARS): DETROIT LIONS -3 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS You guessed it, I’m backing another road favorite coming off its bye week: the Detroit Lions. The extra time to rest and gameplan for this matchup will be more than welcome for Matt Patricia’s squad. Before the season began, the Jags were projected to be the worst team in the league, according to win totals set by sportsbooks. They surprised many, including myself, by kicking off the 2020 season with a 27-to-20 win over the Colts before losing a close call at Tennessee. Since then, things have been going downhill for Jacksonville. They lost by 18, 8 and 16 points in their next three games. Want to hear a stunning fact? The three teams that beat Jacksonville hold a combined 4-10 record this year. That means that if you remove the wins over the Jags, these clubs had just one win versus 10 losses against the rest of the league! And yet, Jacksonville went on to lose by an average of 14 points against those weak teams. That’s horrendous! The Lions were a team that I thought might surprise NFL fans this season. They have not done very well thus far with a 1-3 record. Their offense is more than respectable with Matthew Stafford at quarterback who has been super consistent from year to year. They also feature one of the most underrated wide receivers (Kenny Golladay), a great tight end prospect (T.J. Hockenson) and an acceptable trio of running backs. Their defense had acquired many players on the free agent market, including Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins and Desmond Trufant. And they also took cornerback Jeffrey Okudah with the third overall pick in the draft. This unit has been a disappointment thus far in 2020 by allowing a minimum of 23 points in each meeting. Considering the offseason was shortened due to the coronavirus, teams with many new faces were at a disadvantage. Maybe that’s why the Lions defense is taking more time to gel. I do believe they could improve substantially until the remainder of the year. For these reasons, I’m taking a team that has performed below its true value so far this year, the Detroit Lions, facing a team that has shown three super bad outcomes in a row. PICK #3 (2 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +3 AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS Yes, my top pick last week was Pittsburgh, but this time I’m fading them. After getting clobbered by the Ravens in their opener, the Browns have rebounded nicely with four straight wins. Their average margin of victory has been 9.75 points. Cleveland’s victories came against teams whose combined record is 7-12-1. While that’s not great, take a look at Pittsburgh’s opponents: the Giants, the Broncos, the Texans and the Eagles. Those teams have compiled an atrocious 3-15-1 record. What makes matters worse is that the Steelers’ largest margin of victory in those four meetings was just 10 points. I especially like the progress shown by the Browns. They are getting more and more comfortable with their new head coach, Kevin Stefanski. I was super impressed with the way their offense moved the ball so easily against the stout Colts defense. Prior to this match, Indy had allowed an average of just 14 points per game. The Browns managed to put 32 points on the board. Granted, 9 of them came from the defense but the offense was able to sustain drives all afternoon. The Steelers defense was supposed to be among the top units in the league. They have performed well under expectations thus far. They allowed 29 points to the depleted Eagles offense last week, after surrendering 21 points both against the Texans and Broncos. In the latter case, Denver needed to replace Drew Lock early in the game and went with Jeff Driskel the rest of the way. One thing worries me about this pick, though: the Steelers will be at home for the fifth consecutive week! They have not had to travel much and are therefore well-rested. Still, I like the Browns to win the game outright, or at least keep this divisional matchup very close. Enjoy football this weekend! Professor MJ (www.professormj.com) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCszNw7lw10C53SurBFmwBVQ Twitter: @DavidBeaudoin79
After winning 2 longshot doubles last week on the same day i have decided to start a thread. I will be starting with £8. No research required for this strategy. The only rule for this thread is for each bet the total odds have to be at least 15/1. There will be an update every 8 bets. here is my winning bets from last week .......... Fingers crossed i can get a couple more winners like this
Read full preview at: http://www.rainbow-bet.com We're going to Britannia Stadium for round 25 in the Premier League. Stoke City welcomes the draw experts Everton. Stoke manager Mark Hughes need to pick up some league points after a hectic period with league matches, Capital One Cup and FA Cup. The home side is on a 10th in the league, with 5-2-4 homestats at Britannia. A 0-0 draw home against Arsenal was followed by a 3-0 loss away to Leicester, and last week a 3-0 loss away to Manchester United. In the meantime the red and white has been knocked out of the Capital One Cup after penalties against Liverpool. Also the FA Cup are history after losing 1-0 away against Crystal Palace. Stoke has impressed at times in the league, and now they can continue concentration on the league. Have some injury problems in their squad, especially both centre back's Shawcross and Wollscheid are important absences. Ryan Shawcross has been really good and stable this season, and is one of the key players in the Stoke squad. Injury list Stoke City: Shay Given (goalkeeper) Marc Wilson (defender) Ryan Shawcross (defender) Philipp Wollscheid (defender) Geoff Cameron (defender) Expected lineup Stoke City: Butland Johnson – Muniesa – Bardsley – Pieters Whelan – Imbula Shaqiri – Bojan – Arnautovic Walters Everton is the team in Premier League with most draws, but last week they showed their strengths with a great 3-0 win at home to Newcastle. Two of the goal came from penalties, and both scored by the young and promising Ross Barkley. Roberto Martinez's side sits on the place behind Stoke on the table, on 11th. The away stats shows 3-7-1. Lost the opportunity to play their local rivals Liverpool in the Capital One Cup final, after losing 3-1 to Manchester City in the semifinal. The blues from Liverpool are still playing in the FA Cup after beating Carlisle 0-3 in the last round. All are waiting for Everton to perform and stabilize themselves, they've got a strong squad but are failing to deside even matches. Lukaku is still a big threat up top for Everton, the striker's got 15 goals in the league, 3 behind the Premier League top scorer Jamie Vardy (Leicester). Defensive absences for the away side as well, John Stones is the most important. Injury list Everton: Tim Howard (goalkeeper) Tony Hibbert (defender) Tyias Browning (defender) John Stones (defender) Muhamed Besic (midfield) Expected lineup Everton: Robles Coleman – Jagielka – Mori – Baines McCarthy – Barry Lennon – Barkley – Cleverley Lukaku Exciting offensive players from start on both team, while important defensive players are out injured. Especially Muniesa at Stoke will have a big challenge in the duels and pressing in the middle spaces. At the same time Imbula will make his debut at the defensive midfield for Stoke, he's a strong player with a big work-rate. Imbula and Whelan will make the job difficult for the Everton midfield to create chances today. We find the value in this match at a draw, perhaps we'll see a few goals too. We bet on a draw at Britannia. Stoke – Everton X
Read full preview at: http://www.rainbow-bet.com Second leg in the Capital One Cup semifinal, Liverpool takes on Stoke at Anfield Road. The home side won 0-1 at Britannia in the first leg, but still got a long injury list. The team who win over two legs will meet either Everton or Manchester City in the final at Wembley. The home team has played some entertaining matches lately. 2-2 against Exeter, 3-3 in the Premier League against Arsenal and in the weekend an incredible 4-5 win to Norwich. If we can see a match with a lot of goal today is another matter. Divock Origi is in really goalform at the moment, scoring 4 goals in his last 3 league matches. Origi is unfortunately unavailable for today's game. Good news that centre back Dejan Lovren is recovered after his injury, but expected to start on the bench. An extra motivating for Liverpool is that they may meet their local rivals Everton in the final (Everton beat Manchester City 2-1 in the first leg). These players are unavailable for Liverpool today: Nathaniel Clyne (defender) Steven Caulker (defender) Martin Skrtel (defender) Joe Gomez (defender) Connor Randall (defender) Philippe Coutinho (midfield) Jordon Rossiter (midfield) Daniel Sturridge (striker) Divock Origi (striker) Danny Ings (striker) Expected lineup Liverpool: Mignolet Enrique – Toure – Sakho – Moreno Henderson – Lucas – Can Ibe – Benteke – Milner The away side are looking for a revenge after the 0-1 defeat at home in the first leg, and have to score goals tonight to go through to the final. After a 3-0 win against Norwich in the league, it's been 0-0 home against Arsenal and an ugly 3-0 defeat away to Leicester in the weekend. Stoke have shown that their top level are high this season, but they're still a bit unstable in performance. The important centre back Ryan Shawcross are out due to injury for Stoke. Geoff Cameron (defender) and Shay Given (goalkeeper) are also unavailable. Marko Arnautovic is fit after his hamstring injury, but it's a big question is Mark Hughes starts with his top scorer in this match. A possible choice is Mame Biram Diouf if Arnautovic is benched. Expected lineup Stoke: Butland Johnson – Wilson – Wollscheid – Pieters Whelan – Afellay Walters – Bojan – Arnautovic Crouch Stoke manager Mark Hughes seems to have a plan to exploit Liverpool weakness on set pieces/corner kicks tn todays game. 203 cm high Peter Crouch will most likely play up to for the visitors. Ex Liverpool player Crouch has a good stat against his former club, has scored 3 goals in his last 5 apperances against Jurgen Klopp's side. The goals came back in March 2012, January 2014 and the last one in May 2015. Liverpool will lose pace on their right side with important Clyde missing out. Both Bojan and Arnautovic can use the space that Liverpool leaves behind, to try to find Crouch with crosses to the box. Liverpool has been uncomfortable on crosses in the box through the whole season, and it looks like a good game plan for Stoke to play a more direct and long ball style today. The man they'll try to find is Crouch, most likely in the air. We see great value in Crouch continues his stats against Liverpool today, and bet he'll nick in a goal in this game. Peter Crouch (goalscorer)