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OK, I am back again, this time with real money instead of paper trading. Using the same method of mean regression for each players performance over their career as explained in older threads. Long term I still see it working, the data shows it works and maybe the last thread of paper trading (which roughly broke even) just hit a quiet patch. This thread starting with roughly £500 (a little bit over) 2% per bet so £10. I will try to post picks with time if I can. As soon as I have done a few I will share.
Hope all of you have been well during these crazy times. I haven't bet on any tennis since last spring (ish). Now I am back to give it another go with the new season. I don't know how things will hold up but let's see. I will start with £1074 (went to put £1000 in but still had £174 left in there so put in £900 and will use that. Nice) 1% stakes each bet. Previously I increased it to 2% but starting with 1% with a view to increase again in the future. All bets are on Betfair and profit will be with the commission deducted as I will just be copying the amounts from my account. So how do I make selections? Same as before. I look at the history of a players results when the market has a certain amount of confidence in them. Long term the market *should* be accurate, but over time some players under/over perform compared to market thoughts. That's the gist of it. Currently in lockdown here so I have the time to post most picks I hope. I can't guarantee I will get every pick shared in time as I am still running my business. Two current picks below.
Yeah that made you look LOL. So I have often wondered, and never really paper traded, if the following would work. The idea is that, ultimately, at best, only one Top 10 seeded player at best could win any particular tournament. So that gives you nine winning lays, possibly ten if an outsider takes the title. So simply you lay each Top 10 seed in each match they play in a "stop at a winner" until they lose a match, to ultimately win your initial target. Until, either, ten winning lines come in, or nine at worst. So if laying each Top 10 seed for £10 once they lose a game, you are bound to win £90. Your only losing line would be the 4/5/6 games won by the tournament winner, which would be losing lays for you. Would it be profitable? Does the above make any sense? Does anyone have historic data to trade it against? Or is this mad? Nick
I've always been a football man, but I find my judgment clouded at times by gut instinct, rather than what the stats say (I know stats aren't everything). I'm a big fan of data analysis, and the patterns that they show, so I decided to apply them to a game I'm less up-to-date with, and that's Tennis. I know the rules of tennis, the patterns of play, the fundamentals, but my knowledge of the actual players isn't great. I could probably name 50 of both genders combined, maximum. Another thing that interests me about tennis betting is that there has to be a result. An underdog cannot play for a draw in tennis like they can in football. Football can have overwhelming domination by a favourite, yet finish 0-0. In Tennis, there has to be a result, therefore each set someone will reach at least 6 games (barring retirement). I analysed all the match data from 2019, looking only at matches that completed. 1117 Men's matches, and 1016 Women's. I'm an over/unders man, and a short odds gambler, so I am specifically looking at the number of games in the 2nd set. Looking at the 2nd set I find more consistent, because you can analyse the 1st set performance and take that into account. If someone was smashed 6-0 in the 1st set, then the likelihood of a 2nd set finishing 7-6 is a lot less than had the 1st set been much closer. The specific market I'm looking at is Over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, so essentially the set finishing any score other than 6-0 or 6-1. The data made quite interesting reading: The total number of games having Over 7.5 in the 2nd Set: Men's: 993/1117 - 88.9% Women's: 829/1016 - 81.59% Men's data breaks down further as follows: Over 7.5, 2nd set, clay courts: 395/451 - 87.58% Over 7.5, 2nd set, hard courts: 598/666 - 89.79% and Women's: Clay: 308/365 - 84.38% Hard: 521/651 - 80.03% So, on the face of this, it indicates that men's games on hard courts tend to be a lot closer than any other match type. I then looked at taking the pre-match odds into consideration. I looked at matches where the favourite was priced 1.5 or shorter, and also looked at games where both players were priced between 1.50 - 2.50 (therefore, you'd imagine, closer matches). Men's: Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 512/586 Over 7.5 2nd set - 87.37% Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 184/216 Over 7.5 2nd set - 85.19% Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 328/370 Over 7.5 2nd set - 88.65% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 426/469 - 90.83% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 187/208 - 89.90% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 239/261 - 91.57% Women's: Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 431/536 Over 7.5 2nd set - 80.41% Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 146/179 Over 7.5 2nd set - 81.56% Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 285/357 Over 7.5 2nd set - 79.83% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 354/429 - 82.52% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 148/170 - 87.06% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 206/259 - 79.54% Conclusions at this stage: Men's hard court matches with more even odds have a higher chance of going over 7.5 games in the 2nd set than any other conditions. I then drilled down even further, to look at the chances of over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, depending on the number of games in the 1st set. These are the highlights of the findings: In men's matches, with odds 1.5-2.5, on Hard courts, and where the 1st set finished 7-6, there is a 93.75% chance of the next set having over 7.5 games. However, this is a fairly small field.. In men's matches, 1.5 - 2.5 odds, Hard courts, 1st set had 9+ games. 2nd set chance of over 7.5 is 91.41%. Although this is a decrease from the line above, it does have a larger field (it has occurred 199 times this year from a sample of 217 games). Taking implied odds into account, 1.09 has implied probability of 91.74%, and 1.1 has implied odds of 90.91%, so any odds 1.1 or longer for over 7.5 2nd set games is value. Hope this makes sense, I'll add more as I go.
@CzechPunter I suggest we have a thread about our preseason bets. Would be really great to have I think since we have some bets running. And I'm really interested in knowing if anyone has some preseason bets running like you and me. For me Naomi Osaka to be the year end highest ranked asian player looks good. Ajla Tomljanovic is on the right track. Sloane Stephens is also on the right track. Cedric Marcel-Stebe is injured and I think he will drop in the rankings soon. He hasn't played since january in Australian open and looks set to be dropping in the rankings until at least september. Corentin Moutet defenitely looks vulnerable and his form isn't as great as it was at the end of last season. Lucas Pouille to be the year end highest ranked french player looks ok now. He's ranked 11 atm and looks set to continue his rise. What else did you have running @CzechPunter?