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Although I don't bet as much as I once did, my interest in attempting to solve the age old problem of finding profitable angles remains unabated. In keeping with most people for years I've poured over & analysed past results in an effort to best predict future outcomes. But I'm now questioning whether the study of past results is the best approach. I found www.soccer-rating.com many years ago and have revisited it from time to time because the idea of ratings from bookmaker odds was intriguing to me - although using the site's info didn't really help me and anything & everything I tried also failed to impress. Then recently I read a paper which was looking into soccer ratings with some surprising conclusions. Written in 2018 by Fabian Wunderlich & Daniel Memmert their findings at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0198668 throw up interesting outcomes. Using and evaluating ELO rating methods it makes the case that ELO using Won-Draw-Lose for its update calculations gives poorer predictive outcomes than if using goals scored & conceded for each update. The most surprising finding (at least for me) was that if bookmaker odds are used after each game and NOT the game result, it improves ELO's effectiveness even more. So, have you got that? Moulding ELO to predict bookmaker odds is better at predicting football results than using the results themselves! This revelation rekindled my interest in the subject. All football ratings usually require a degree of work on the punter's part, ELO or any ratings are unlikely to make you a winner by themselves, it's down to the way you implement them with a bit of creativity. But, m'thinks, if I could model match odds instead of ratings AND model my odds from past ODDS rather than SCORES, then as well as increasing my accuracy (according to the above paper) I'd easily be able to check my forecast with those of the bookies allowing a straight comparison. Well, that was the theory . . . but what about the practice? Well, I'm pleasantly surprised at both the accuracy & predictive power of my modelling. Employing the idea retrospectively over this past season a double figure ROI is achievable by using a simple rule of "if the P of my odds is better than that of the bookmaker by a specific margin, then bet". Draws bets are of little value, I could have expected that because I'm modelling home & away odds only, the draw odds are inferred by using the two modelled prices and making the whole up to about 106% overround. But both potential home win and away win bets were equally productive. Prices used for this method are AVERAGE odds from OddsPortal, also the potential profits were taken using average odds too, so performance should also be easily available and frequently improved upon. Predictions are created from a recent subset of past games (in order to hopefully pick up market trends/moves) and employs evolutionary techniques but without recourse to random numbers. Here's last weeks and this weeks odds predictions, the first three columns are OddsPortal average odds, the final 3 columns are the modelled odds. Some of the OddsPortal prices will have changed already, I sampled them this afternoon. But the predicted odds are fixed based as they are on previous games. I did title this "Football ratings without reference to results" which of course isn't exactly true. It uses past odds as a reference point and of course markets will be affected by results. So there is an indirect relationship, but who's counting? league date KO game OP-H OP-D OP-A predH predD predA Premier League 09/04/2021 20:00 Fulham - Wolves 2.64 3.08 2.95 2.89 3.08 2.56 Premier League 10/04/2021 12:30 Manchester City - Leeds 1.38 5.23 7.89 1.26 8.45 6.81 Premier League 10/04/2021 15:00 Liverpool - Aston Villa 1.47 4.65 6.92 1.52 4.51 5.52 Premier League 10/04/2021 17:30 Crystal Palace - Chelsea 7.32 4.19 1.5 6.96 4.52 1.44 Premier League 11/04/2021 12:00 Burnley - Newcastle 2.27 3.33 3.31 2.06 3.17 3.87 Premier League 11/04/2021 14:05 West Ham - Leicester 3.18 3.23 2.39 3.21 3.27 2.26 Premier League 11/04/2021 16:30 Tottenham - Manchester Utd 2.94 3.51 2.4 2.79 3.36 2.48 Premier League 11/04/2021 19:00 Sheffield Utd - Arsenal 5.54 3.89 1.66 5.23 3.37 1.75 Premier League 12/04/2021 18:00 West Brom - Southampton 3.57 3.55 2.08 3.61 3.91 1.9 Premier League 12/04/2021 20:15 Brighton - Everton 2.15 3.44 3.51 2.54 2.77 3.28 Championship 09/04/2021 19:45 Watford - Reading 1.77 3.49 4.96 2.05 3.05 4.1 Championship 10/04/2021 12:30 Millwall - Swansea 3.21 3 2.44 3.09 3.16 2.38 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Barnsley - Middlesbrough 2.02 3.33 3.86 2.23 3.25 3.29 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Birmingham - Stoke 2.82 2.96 2.77 3.1 3.04 2.45 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Bournemouth - Coventry 1.63 3.8 5.67 1.81 3.44 4.59 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Bristol City - Nottingham 3.45 3.24 2.2 3.27 2.85 2.48 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Cardiff - Blackburn 2.55 3.19 2.88 2.33 3.15 3.2 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Derby - Norwich 5.41 4.08 1.61 4.7 3.57 1.76 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Huddersfield - Rotherham 2.48 3.21 2.95 2.46 3.12 3 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Preston - Brentford 4.17 3.49 1.89 4.28 3.19 1.95 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 QPR - Sheffield Wed 2.24 3.36 3.21 1.95 3.18 4.31 Championship 10/04/2021 15:00 Wycombe - Luton 3.41 3.31 2.18 3.58 3.19 2.14 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Accrington - AFC Wimbledon 2.12 3.39 3.35 1.97 3.46 3.81 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Crewe - Oxford Utd 2.39 3.34 2.88 2.67 2.97 2.87 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Doncaster - Wigan 2.17 3.29 3.33 1.91 3.38 4.18 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Fleetwood - Rochdale 2.03 3.26 3.77 1.74 3.41 5.18 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Gillingham - Shrewsbury 2.28 3.13 3.25 2.33 3.17 3.17 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Ipswich - MK Dons 2.58 3.13 2.78 2.59 3.29 2.7 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Lincoln - Blackpool 2.71 3.2 2.59 2.38 3.1 3.16 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Northampton - Bristol Rovers 2.87 3.04 2.58 2.49 3.54 2.66 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Plymouth - Hull 5.27 4.04 1.59 4.51 3.4 1.84 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Portsmouth - Burton 1.9 3.33 4.2 1.77 3.51 4.75 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Sunderland - Charlton 1.88 3.34 4.25 2.16 3.36 3.35 League One 10/04/2021 15:00 Swindon - Peterborough 4.91 3.57 1.72 4.13 4 1.76 League Two 09/04/2021 18:00 Mansfield - Newport 2.39 2.92 3.24 2.2 3.24 3.38 League Two 09/04/2021 19:00 Oldham - Colchester 2.58 3.26 2.68 2.26 3.24 3.23 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Barrow - Carlisle 3.12 3.05 2.38 3.12 3.12 2.39 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Bolton - Harrogate 1.84 3.53 4.18 2.07 3.62 3.33 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Bradford City - Grimsby 2.04 3.25 3.7 1.77 3.58 4.63 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Cambridge Utd - Exeter 2.54 3.15 2.8 2.9 3.06 2.57 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Cheltenham - Leyton Orient 1.81 3.4 4.53 1.78 3.72 4.35 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Port Vale - Morecambe 2.37 3.12 3.08 2.58 3.25 2.75 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Salford - Stevenage 2.14 2.97 3.81 1.92 3.33 4.17 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Scnuthorpe - Tranmere 3.56 3.17 2.12 3.07 3.3 2.32 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Southend - Crawley 2.48 3.08 2.93 2.74 2.96 2.8 League Two 10/04/2021 15:00 Walsall - Forest Green 3.08 2.98 2.45 2.89 3.33 2.41 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Altrincham - FC Halifax 3.03 3.24 2.27 2.87 3.31 2.44 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Boreham Wood - Wealdstone 1.4 4.41 7.23 1.52 4.22 6.03 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Bromley - Dag & Red 2.15 3.41 3.11 1.97 3.55 3.7 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Eastleigh - Woking 2.21 3 3.39 2.68 3.01 2.82 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 King?s Lynn - Chesterfield 5.79 4.13 1.51 4.71 3.83 1.7 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Maidenhead - Barnet 1.48 4.3 5.77 1.68 4.48 4.16 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Torquay - Weymouth 1.44 4.31 6.58 1.38 4.78 7.98 National League 10/04/2021 15:00 Wrexham - Stockport 3.81 3.26 1.96 3.72 3.19 2.09 National League 10/04/2021 17:20 Hartlepool - Notts Co 2.31 3.15 3.03 2.1 3.64 3.23 Championship 13/04/2021 17:30 Huddersfield - Bournemouth 4.55 3.62 1.79 3.87 3.38 1.98 Championship 13/04/2021 18:00 Sheffield Wed - Swansea 2.84 3.15 2.6 3.27 3.31 2.22 Championship 13/04/2021 19:00 Rotherham - QPR 2.51 3.51 2.71 2.78 3.87 2.27 League One 13/04/2021 18:00 Crewe - Portsmouth 3.16 3.3 2.23 2.55 3.25 2.77 League One 13/04/2021 18:00 Wigan - Sunderland 4.4 3.47 1.81 4.76 3.86 1.69 League One 13/04/2021 18:30 AFC Wimbledon - Ipswich 2.93 3 2.55 3.37 3.06 2.29 League One 13/04/2021 19:00 Blackpool - Accrington 1.72 3.75 4.62 1.9 3.42 4.14 League One 13/04/2021 19:00 Doncaster - Burton 2.42 3.19 2.94 2.23 3.22 3.32 League One 13/04/2021 19:00 Lincoln - MK Dons 2.31 3.45 2.9 2.35 3.58 2.82 League One 13/04/2021 19:00 Oxford Utd - Shrewsbury 1.92 3.28 4.14 1.96 3.18 4.24 League One 13/04/2021 19:00 Rochdale - Swindon 2.33 3.17 3.11 2.41 3.48 2.8 League Two 13/04/2021 18:30 Morecambe - Scnuthorpe 1.63 3.7 5.48 2.19 3.3 3.32 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Barrow - Exeter 3.06 3.21 2.34 3.6 2.93 2.27 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Bradford City - Crawley 2.02 3.42 3.57 2.18 3.13 3.54 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Harrogate - Leyton Orient 2.27 3.11 3.28 2.12 3.24 3.58 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Newport - Carlisle 2.71 2.98 2.76 2.47 3.46 2.73 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Salford - Bolton 2.64 2.98 2.83 2.41 3.14 3.05 League Two 13/04/2021 19:00 Walsall - Tranmere 3.06 3.1 2.39 3.42 2.99 2.31 National League 13/04/2021 19:00 Dag & Red - Eastleigh 2.39 3.05 2.98 2.37 3.09 3.18 National League 13/04/2021 19:00 FC Halifax - Wrexham 2.21 3.24 3.13 2.3 2.97 3.45 National League 13/04/2021 19:00 Solihull Moors - Notts Co 2.98 3.17 2.33 2.99 3.07 2.5 National League 13/04/2021 19:00 Stockport - King?s Lynn 1.27 5.27 10.01 1.48 4.48 6.24 National League 13/04/2021 19:00 Sutton - Torquay 2.13 3.05 3.52 2.24 3.86 2.82 National League 13/04/2021 19:45 Chesterfield - Boreham Wood 2.13 3.15 3.41 2.08 4.02 3.02 National League 13/04/2021 19:45 Weymouth - Aldershot 3.68 3.44 1.93 3.75 3.24 2.06 National League 13/04/2021 19:45 Woking - Bromley 3.14 3.29 2.19 2.63 3.24 2.69 Premier League 16/04/2021 20:00 Everton - Tottenham 3.32 3.37 2.25 2.63 3.17 2.74 Premier League 17/04/2021 12:30 Newcastle - West Ham 3.79 3.45 2.04 3.93 3.09 2.08 Premier League 17/04/2021 20:15 Wolves - Sheffield Utd 1.68 3.58 5.97 1.81 3.45 4.62 Premier League 18/04/2021 13:30 Arsenal - Fulham 1.75 3.7 4.98 2.03 3.46 3.58 Premier League 18/04/2021 16:00 Manchester Utd - Burnley 1.35 5.11 9.49 1.51 3.88 7.27 Premier League 19/04/2021 20:00 Leeds - Liverpool 4.63 4.23 1.69 3.98 3.63 1.88 Championship 16/04/2021 18:00 Blackburn - Derby 2.19 3.25 3.42 2.2 3.13 3.5 Championship 16/04/2021 18:00 Reading - Cardiff 2.19 3.2 3.47 2.6 2.79 3.16 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Brentford - Millwall 1.59 3.77 6.13 1.76 3.33 5.21 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Luton - Watford 4.52 3.49 1.82 4.76 3.34 1.82 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Middlesbrough - QPR 2.05 3.42 3.62 2.26 3.77 2.85 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Nottingham - Huddersfield 2.08 3.21 3.77 1.97 3.87 3.4 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Sheffield Wed - Bristol City 2.02 3.35 3.8 2.14 3.37 3.38 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Stoke - Preston 2.13 3.13 3.73 2.13 2.73 4.44 Championship 17/04/2021 12:30 Swansea - Wycombe 1.5 3.94 7.37 1.5 4.17 6.47 Championship 17/04/2021 20:00 Norwich - Bournemouth 1.9 3.61 3.93 1.93 3.51 3.88 Championship 18/04/2021 12:00 Rotherham - Birmingham 2.67 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.27 Championship 18/04/2021 15:00 Coventry - Barnsley 3.63 3.24 2.12 3.31 3.13 2.28 League One 16/04/2021 19:45 Peterborough - Northampton 1.47 4.17 6.52 1.78 3.06 5.87 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Blackpool - Sunderland 2.75 3.1 2.62 2.71 3.47 2.48 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Bristol Rovers - Lincoln 2.82 3.32 2.42 3.36 3.62 2.06 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Burton - Plymouth 2.03 3.41 3.55 2.09 3.79 3.16 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Charlton - Ipswich 2.1 3.19 3.57 2.29 3.07 3.37 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Hull - Fleetwood 1.55 3.82 6.12 1.7 3.54 5.28 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 MK Dons - Portsmouth 2.85 3.15 2.5 2.62 3.81 2.4 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Rochdale - Accrington 2.62 3.34 2.58 2.67 3.94 2.31 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Shrewsbury - Doncaster 2.26 3.16 3.22 2.67 2.89 2.94 League One 17/04/2021 12:30 Wigan - Crewe 2.81 3.27 2.45 3.39 3.16 2.23 League One 17/04/2021 17:30 AFC Wimbledon - Swindon 2.2 3.29 3.22 2.07 3.14 3.86 League One 17/04/2021 17:30 Oxford Utd - Gillingham 2.06 3.39 3.49 2.1 3.18 3.7 League Two 16/04/2021 18:30 Crawley - Cheltenham 3.62 3.4 1.98 3.03 3.14 2.43 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Carlisle - Port Vale 2.26 3.18 3.2 2.27 3.32 3.13 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Exeter - Southend 1.71 3.5 5.01 1.67 3.35 6.1 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Forest Green - Scnuthorpe 1.91 3.3 4.09 2.05 3.06 4.07 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Grimsby - Bolton 3.56 3.31 2.05 4.65 3.49 1.79 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Harrogate - Bradford City 2.31 3.2 3.08 2.42 3.01 3.17 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Leyton Orient - Barrow 2.51 3.07 2.88 2.41 2.83 3.42 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Morecambe - Oldham 1.96 3.51 3.6 1.97 3.8 3.46 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Newport - Cambridge Utd 2.3 3.04 3.25 2.31 3.32 3.07 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Stevenage - Mansfield 2.7 2.96 2.74 2.79 3.22 2.55 League Two 17/04/2021 12:30 Tranmere - Salford 2.51 3 2.95 2.83 3.21 2.53 League Two 17/04/2021 17:30 Colchester - Walsall 2.3 3.1 3.18 2.47 3.1 3 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Altrincham - Sutton 3.21 3.29 2.16 3.58 3.39 2.06 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Barnet - Aldershot 3.45 3.46 2 3.46 4.26 1.87 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Chesterfield - Bromley 1.73 3.62 4.46 1.91 4.16 3.36 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Dag & Red - Solihull Moors 2.24 3.36 2.99 2.62 3.72 2.44 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 FC Halifax - King?s Lynn 1.52 3.87 6.2 1.64 4.93 4.02 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Notts Co - Eastleigh 2.06 3.23 3.54 1.78 3.6 4.55 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Stockport - Maidenhead 1.36 4.56 8.26 1.37 5.62 6.51 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Wealdstone - Hartlepool 5.62 3.98 1.54 5.68 4.34 1.53 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Woking - Wrexham 3.11 3.16 2.27 2.94 2.74 2.82 National League 17/04/2021 12:30 Yeovil - Boreham Wood 2.33 3.25 2.93 2.71 3.39 2.53