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Basketball in-play modelling
paparainbow posted a topic in NBA & Basketball PredictionsDoes anyone have the slightest idea what mathematical concept is behind odds in in-play basketball? I mean is there a distribution or something to use, as someone could use poisson in football (with time, decaying goal expectancies over time etc)? Even though basketball seams to follow a normal distribution, I don't know what to do with negative values (points cannot be negative). if I model point differences (hence allow negative values) I cannot model the total points rather than the margin of victories, handicaps only... any idea?
NCAAB SEASON 2018/2019
thinkpink63 posted a topic in NBA & Basketball Predictions19/11/2018 San Diego State v Duke 22.30 CET San Diego State + 15.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365 Line way too high in my view. Duke won first 3 games by 34 (Kentucky), 22 (Army) and 38 (Eastern Michigan). San Diego State also comfortably won their first 2 games by 16 (Ark Pine Bluff) and 39 (Texas Southern). For me this will be a much tighter game than the odds suggest.
Chicago Bulls - Denver Nuggets Basketball » USA » NBA » 01 Nov 2018, 01:00 Denver started season very good, despite Burton's injury they didn't lose momentum. They are like in a must when we speak about going into playoffs and this kind of games are must win. Also Bulls are at the moment in difficult period as they have many injured players. Minnesota Timberwolves - Utah Jazz Basketball » USA » NBA » 01 Nov 2018, 01:00 No Butler tonight for Minnesota (rumors says that he will sit till trade but we will see), no Teague and Wiggins is questionable. Utah's away record will surely decline when the season progresses but now they are in good mojo and should find a win with ease here. Even if Wiggins plays i don't see any chances for T'wolves with bad chemistry. ML odds are already very low. And if I used the basic playing time, then in this case, it's still interesting for me, because I do not expect to see the drama, GL.
Liga Endesa 29/04 (Spain ACB)
EBTA posted a topic in NBA & Basketball PredictionsTournament: Spain ACB Date/Time: 29.04.2018/18:30 CET Event: Estudiantes - Real Madrid Pick: Under 170.5 Odds: 2.02 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Stake: 10/10 "Energy and persistence conquer all things".
Liga Endesa 28/04 (Spain ACB)
EBTA posted a topic in NBA & Basketball PredictionsEvent: Fuenlabrada - Barcelona Pick: Barcelona -7.5 AH Odds: 1.93
Sportnut posted a topic in Glory HuntersHey guys I am new to the forum and a keen tennis fan and bettor. I specialise in ITF Mens but dabble across all levels. Feel free to have a look and if you want to get my other thoughts and my YTD record follow me on twitter under the handle Sportnut @Cowboyfan0408. Look forward to interacting with everybody and posting my thoughts. Will keep a record here of my bets also. Cheers 3 bets for tonight so far have already started but they were posted on the tennis betting forum beforehand but I have been suggested to put them here. Here they are. Solberg has yet to start in Finland ITF Belgium Qualies Rayane Oumaoche to beat Antoine Damiens @ 2.22 (1U) ITF Finland Christoffer Solberg to beat Patrick Kaukovalta @ 2.40 (1U) ITF Morocco Filippo Baldi to beat Filippo Leonardi @ 2.04 (1.25U) ITF Portugal Qualies Mateo B Reyes to beat Afonso Portugal @ 1.87 (1.5U)
NBA > January
WinningAdvice posted a topic in NBA & Basketball PredictionsNew year, new set of exciting matches. With the inconsistency of a lot of NBA teams and the resurgence of some, who do you think will win most of their matches this month? The Cavs are still reigning especially with the should I say surprising addition of Kyle Korver. On the other hand, the Warriors are being unpredictable, in negative way.