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Soccer Predictions (Software Base)
note3user posted a topic in Betting Systems & StrategyHi I present to you my predictions from my software. There are 3 types predictions Over 1.5, Over 2.5, & Home Wins I hope these to be useful to anyone. Any questions I do my best to reply. good luck 28/10/2018 Predictions Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 1.5 match goals) Danish SAS-Ligaen Hobro IK v Vejle Italy Serie A Genoa v Udinese Spanish Segunda Division Extremadura UD v Albacete Greek Super League Panetolikos v Asteras Tripolis Spanish Primera Division Alavés v Villarreal Spanish Segunda Division Elche v Real Zaragoza Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 2.5 match goals) Dutch Eredivisie Willem II v FC Utrecht Belgian Jupiler League Standard Liege v Genk Swiss Raiffeisen Super League Xamax v FC Luzern Swiss Raiffeisen Super League St Gallen v FC Zurich Swiss Raiffeisen Super League FC Lugano v Thun Spanish Primera Division Barcelona v Real Madrid Dutch Eredivisie AZ v Heerenveen Swedish Allsvenskan IFK Norrkoping v Östersunds FK Norwegian Tippeligaen Odd BK v Tromso Belgian Jupiler League Eupen v Anderlecht German Bundesliga Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen French Ligue 1 Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Home Wins) Dutch Eredivisie Ajax v Feyenoord Danish SAS-Ligaen FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus Turkey Super Lig Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Portuguese Liga FC Porto v Feirense Greek Super League AEK Athens v Aris Salonika Spanish Primera Division Sevilla FC v SD Huesca Portuguese Liga Sporting CP v Boavista
ELO Type Ratings - Away matches
SniffTheGlove posted a topic in Betting Systems & StrategyHello, I am looking for someone who has worked with ELO ratings or even anyone who may be able to offer advice. I am tweaking my own rating system a bit by looking at how ELO ratings are done, so I have put together a spreadsheet of data and ELO rating forumla from another spreadsheet and I have come across an issue with Away Matches. Here is the ELO Data. Crystal Palace Rating -1.01 Liverpool Rating 297.39 Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4 Goal Diff 2 Result 0 Rating Diff -298.40 K Factor 50.00 Expected Result 0.15 Points 0 Crystal Palace New Rating -1.01 Liverpool New Rating 297.39 So the way ELO works is based on the rating from points derived from all the other data, with the points being added/subtracted from the pre-match ratings. Now all this is fine for Home matches and Draws but for Away matched there seems to be no points awared at all. So from the above data, with Liverpool having a higher pre-match rating than Crystal Palace, then Liverpool win by 2 goals difference (Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4) however after all that both teams are awarded 0 points. So, the whole basis for the points is really based on the Result part of the formula (ie 1 for Home win, 0.5 for a draw and 0 for an away win.) Why is this, can anyone explain why. Please look at my spreadsheet and look at the Crystal Palace - Liverpool data on line 95 Thanks -0.24 73.29 148.69 -420.98 -147.40 295.11 -247.54 -148.19 -122.76 0.19 -25.21 247.54 297.39 76.00 -49.68 370.05 -123.30 newdata.xlsm