Johnrobertson

Could just be dumb luck! To be fair it’s more about trying to rank the players based on value in the price rather than pure chance of winning. It’s quite labour intensive so I doubt I’ll do it every week but I’ll at least try and do all the majors.

That's fantastic, thank you.
I'm doing OK, 3 more months of chemo and then hopefully be in remission for a bit.

I am also fighting leukemia, the medical advances over the last 10 years have been fantastic and without them I wouldn't be alive today. I will be donating any winnings to https://bloodcancer.org.uk/ they do fantastic work. Any donations will be gratefully received.

Hopefully these will prove as successful when they helped me land £993 from a £3 lucky fifteen.
Again I will stick to the 1st 4 in the betting forecast. This again proved profitable in its own right again last year and has now shown a profit for 9 years in a row ! There have been 139 wins from 831 runs with a profit of 190 points and an AE of 1.11. It has now found the Grand National in 6 of the last 9 runnings.
Distance of race different to last time (more or less than 1 furlong). 63 wins from  310 runs, profit 216 points, AE 1.46. 
Odds last time between 2/1 and 80/1. 117 wins from 661 runs, profit 237 points, AE 1.21.
10 runners or more in last race. 94 wins from 508 runs, profit 236 points, AE 1.23.
Consistency in the last 2 years factor between 0.59 and 0.39. 62 wins from 288 runs, profit 154 points, AE 1.45.
Going last time not Good or Heavy. 103 wins from 534 runs, profit 163 points, AE 1.23.

Opening it on another browser seems to work if you're on pc (until that limit is reached anyway!).

Just another rip off,don't pay it!.
 
You can see the same chart on the attheraces.com website for nothing

Okay quite a few I've done various bets, wins only mind you, none of that ew nonsense, lol.
Firstly Dad has went Clark, Fitzpatrick, Young and McCarthy.
I tried lucky dips, so these are just random.
Taylor Moore, lol  250s, I'm at 75/1, lol
Olazabal , lol, lol, lol, seriously, 3000/1, I have 75/1 - what's the chances of pulling out the last on the betting platforms, actually probably bloody high knowing these betting sites.
Rickie Fowler, not the worst, but again 100/1, mines 75/1
Sergio Garcia, 90/1, mines 75/1
Now for serious bets.
1st round leaders
Niemann 30s
Cantlay 33s
Wins on Scheffler 8s
Schauffele 14s 
Koepka 14s, pay out early if leading at 3rd round - what I never checked isnif he's shared lead, hmmmm?
Clark boosted on b365 (25%)
I haven't done it, but even though I don't believe he'll do it, had in in thoughts over last couple of years for Morikawa, so will probably do a small wager on him.
 
Good luck all.
 
 
 

I've backed all of the top 10 in my ratings above on the exchange to small stakes, see how it plays out on a round by round basis. Small stakes but would cop around £100 if one of them won.
Henley e/w FRL at 50/1 (6 places) - gets me a fiver matched freebie
De Chambeau e/w outright at 33/1 (8 places) - using the freebie
Hisatune e/w top debutant at 40/1 (4 places) - saw a favourable mention and a bit of a stand out price.

Gone with @Johnrobertson and followed him in with Xander Schauffele.
Also gone with @fd1972uk and done the 100% profit boost offer on Scottie Scheffler.
And done the Bet365 25% boost offer on Top Amateur market and gone with outsider Jasper Stubbs at 13/2 (price before boost added). I do think the market has the right favourite with Christo Lamprecht in that competition and he will be the one to beat having made the cut at The Open last year and being World Amateur Golf Ranking (WAGR) ranked 1. I don't think Stubbs should be the outsider of the pack though hence why I have favoured him with a bit of juice in his Price.
 
Best of luck everyone. Swing easy, Swing well.

Small bet for a bit of fun.
Chris Kirk £1ew  (200/1) BV 5 places 
Chris Kirk first round leader £1 (100/1 including 25% bet boost) B365

Xander caught my eye here, he has been in the top five in 32% of starts since the beginning of 2022 so solid each-way chance and in 2021 he came third here. His form this year has been impressive too, almost won at Sawgrass.
Xander Schauffele 16/1 8 places hills
 

Xander caught my eye here, he has been in the top five in 32% of starts since the beginning of 2022 so solid each-way chance and in 2021 he came third here. His form this year has been impressive too, almost won at Sawgrass.
Xander Schauffele 16/1 8 places hills
 

A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.   Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.   Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.   Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.   Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.   Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.   Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.   Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.   Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.   Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.   Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.   Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.   Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.    Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.   Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.   Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.   Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.   Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.   Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.   The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground   Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.   Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.   Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.   The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.   Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.   The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.   Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.   Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)

Thanks for posting this @daveg I've done the same now I had a four figure sum in one of my betting accounts better to be safe than sorry. I opened an instant savings account 5% interest which is a bonus. 

Thanks for posting this @daveg I've done the same now I had a four figure sum in one of my betting accounts better to be safe than sorry. I opened an instant savings account 5% interest which is a bonus. 

Thanks for your comments and thoughts guys. I’ve just withdrawn more money from my betting accounts so that they are at a more comfortable level should something like this happen again.
I’m still not particularly happy with the way Skybet dealt with it. There was no apology at any stage, and the way the first guy just shut the conversation down without any explanation does make me wonder if there was some sort of internal fraud going on. Anyway, money banked, and valuable lesson learnt.

Scheffler for me is the one to beat, his skinny odds make it hard but mgm are doing 100% profit so will probably opt for him, helped that ilI won a few quid on their free spins too, so makes it a nothing bet.
Like JR I do also fancy XS, so will opt for him too.
Always fancied Morikawa but think he's strayed way off where I thought he'd be. Same with Speith.
Wyndham Clark is playing well, but not sure if the step up will be too much.
I'm finding it hard to judge LIV players as the money makes it hard to take their form seriously.   With that said probably Rahm and Koepka are likely lads for me.
Will do a couple of 1st round leaders and try a couple of lucky dips too from Ladbrokes.
Good luck all, will get final selections up later.
 
 

Many Thanks for your hard work running these comps @MCLARKE it's  very much appreciated by us all.

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree Thursday 11th to Saturday 13th April.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included  
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in.

# Name FP Odds Rating 1 English 39 201 188 2 McCarthy 38 126 120 3 Henley 32 81 111 4 Woo Kim 34 91 107 5 Scott 36 101 103 6 Theegala 29 51 102 7 Conners 33 81 100 8 De Chambeau 28 41 99 9 Bhatia 37 101 98 10 Reed 34 81 97 11 Im 38 101 95 12 Scheffler 11 5 94 13 Schauffele 20 17 93 14 Thomas 29 41 92 15 McIlroy 18 12 92 16 Woo Lee 35 81 90 17 Niemann 27 29 90 18 Matsuyama 23 21 90 19 Spieth 24 23 89 20 Young 31 51 88 21 Aberg 28 29 87 22 Clark 28 29 87 23 Rahm 21 14 87 My ratings, to be treated with extreme caution. If anything more an indicator that the fixed odds price might be value. FP is the estimated finishing position (sell price) on the spreads. Maybe of interest is you fancy a player or see one tipped and they're higher up the table.

@Fader will you be doing the superb competitions for the Golfing Majors again like last year?

Xander caught my eye here, he has been in the top five in 32% of starts since the beginning of 2022 so solid each-way chance and in 2021 he came third here. His form this year has been impressive too, almost won at Sawgrass.
Xander Schauffele 16/1 8 places hills
 

Xander caught my eye here, he has been in the top five in 32% of starts since the beginning of 2022 so solid each-way chance and in 2021 he came third here. His form this year has been impressive too, almost won at Sawgrass.
Xander Schauffele 16/1 8 places hills
 

1450 Chelmsford Mcted 4/1 each-way bet365
1545 Kempton Devoted Queen 8/15 betfair
1625 Kempton Notable Speech 4/5 betfair
Reserves
1345 Curragh California Dreamer 8/11 betfair
1340 Uttoxeter Hawk Stone 7/2 each-way bet365

Musselburgh 1840
Mack The Man 12/1 bet365 each-way