Robinnho

Zheng has taken the 1st set from Swiatek!?

Nadal had a slow start and lost the 1st set but after realizing that his opponent was having a good plan (strategy) for this match-up, he stepped up and knew that he has to be at his best to win this match.

Qinwen Zheng (+7.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Obviously I don't expect to see an upset here, but this is getting ridiculous given that this is a Grand Slam, that Zheng beat a (limited) Halep, and that Swiatek didn't have the best of days against Kovinic. Zheng can play attacking tennis and produce some neat serves, she's the new generation of Chinese players and has absolutely nothing to lose here. 

Totally agree.  If Zheng keeps her composure and plays her A-game, she might be able to steal a set from the red hot favorite, Swiatek which pays more than 4!

Phew, the +7.5 handicap on Zheng looks appealing, I mean...

Martina Trevisan to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 2.12 with Pinnacle
Not quite sure what to make of the odds here. Sasnovich is good, of course, but Trevisan is the most in-form player (aside from Swiatek) on the tour right now and she hasn't spent that much time on the courts here for fatigue to play a role in my opinion. And do I think she's the better clay courter of the two? Most definitely. For my worth, the odds should be the other way around here.

I'm trying a boosted acca today, plus a couple of WTA matches and adding to an outright position. The boosted acca contains four WTA favourites who should win and that's Kasatkina, Sabalenka, Pegula and Badosa. I'm least convinced by Sabalenka's chances because her serving woes might decide to make an appearance, plus her opponent Giorgi has a very high level when she's on and she's looked good so far here and so I'm backing Giorgi in a single separately. The other player I want to back is Jeanjean, who played really well against Pliskova to make this round. Her reward is a match against Begu and whilst Begu is a better clay court player than Pliskova, if I'm Jeanjean then I'm viewing this as a match I can definitely win having just taken down a top 10 player.
The outright I'm adding to, despite my misgivings, is Tsitsipas. As I've mentioned, it's very difficult to see how he can win this with the way his game is right now but at the same time I think his price has been disproportionately impacted by his lacklustre performances so far. The fact remains he made the final last year, clay is his favourite surface, his form coming here was good, he's a top 5 player and he should be making the next round at least. He'll need to step up if he's going to be in contention towards the end of this tournament, but as Alcaraz demonstrated last night it's not beyond the realms of possibility.
 
10pts Kasatkina (vs. Rogers) x Sabalenka (vs. Giorgi) x Pegula (vs. Zidansek) x Badosa (vs. Kudermetova) @ 4.39 365
10pts Giorgi to beat Sabalenka @ 3.50 365
15pts Jeanjean to beat Begu @ 3.40 365
30pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 8.25 Betfair Exchange

Jessica Pegula to beat Tamara Zidansek at 1.38 with Unibet
Despite nearly choking away a 6-1 5-1 lead, Pegula was pretty awesome against Kalinina, the match was intense from start to finish, bar the first set. Zidansek looks undercooked coming into this and hasn't beaten a player of Pegula's level all year long.

Yes, she played in Strasbourg before the RG and looks OK now and I hope she has recovered at least 90%.

Mertens had an injury on her right leg on 24/04/2022 and retired from the match against Peterson in Istanbul thus missing out on Madrid and Rome. 

Just a single today and it's Teichmann to beat Azarenka. The Swiss has a couple of clean wins behind her, compared to Azarenka who's had to dig in for both of her victories to reach this stage. I wouldn't give Teichmann much of a chance on a hard court, as evidenced by their meeting at the AO where Azarenka was an easy winner, but on clay which is Teichmann's best surface and Azarenka's worst, I think she should be the favourite.
20pts Teichmann to beat Azarenka @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook

Mertens had an injury on her right leg on 24/04/2022 and retired from the match against Peterson in Istanbul thus missing out on Madrid and Rome. 

Yes, she played in Strasbourg before the RG and looks OK now and I hope she has recovered at least 90%.

Mertens had an injury on her right leg on 24/04/2022 and retired from the match against Peterson in Istanbul thus missing out on Madrid and Rome. 

Elise Mertens to beat Varvara Gracheva at 1.44 with BetVictor
Keeping it simple today with just this one, Mertens has been finally on the up recently and has had more than enough time to recover from any fitness issues given the walkover in the second round. Gracheva nearly lost against Sharma and then beat the semi-injured Tomljanovic, nothing great.

Goffin delivered

Fun fact: i only was able to watch first set. Eurosport in Serbia canceled rest of the match due to cycling. In 1st set Goffin was slow by every meaning of the word..like he didn't had breakfast in the morning. Obviosly,rest of the match was better for him.
As for the Djere - Medvedev match..thank God for dropping odds on Djere. It saved me from lost bet.   I've watched 2nd and 3rd set..i have to say that,no matter of result,Medvedev didn't impress me. He is lucky with the very soft draw he is given. Ramos Vinollas would beatin' him with ease..

I'm going with one bet for tomorrow since i feel that odds will drop.

G.Dimitrov to beat D.Schwartzmann @1,65 local bookie soccerbet

Dimitrov is in such a nice shape this spring..good run of results,while i couldn't say the same for Diego. I watched them both over this clay-court season..Schwartzmann i watched in Rome against Kecmanovic. With Kecmanovic it was a real thriller and Diego eventually came on top only because of better fitness..
And i have to mention that Dimitrov outplayed him easy recently in Madrid. Yes,i know,this is RG,but let me tell you - this Paris clay is not that slow and ball bounces lower which favors Dimitrov's game..i just don't see what changed since Madrid for Argentinian and expect another win for Grisha.

D.Goffin to beat F.Tiafoe @1.70 local bookie

I think thay Goffin is overall a better player. He leads by 3-1 in h2h and what is interesting is the fact that, all of those matches came from hard courts which are Tiafoe's favourite. I think on clay Goffin will have even more advantage.
I have recently watched Krajinovic - Tiafoe match in Rome. American lost 0-2..a tight match,but what i didn't like was his decision making, tennis IQ not the best and lack of patience when it comes to constructing a points on clay court.

I alsko wanted to back Djere on some handicap line against Medvedev,but the odds have dropped and i find no value in them no more.

Just a boosted treble for me today and a couple more outright bets. The treble consists of Ruud, Medvedev and Sinner all to win which has been boosted to nearly even money. Ruud and Sinner should be easy winners and so the wildcard is Medvedev who doesn't have the best record on clay but even considering that this seems worth taking, particularly as he was talking positively after his first round match. I don't think he'll find it easy against Djere, who's a very competent clay court player who pushed Djokovic hard on the surface recently, but I do think he'll get the win although probably with a dropped set along the way.
In the outrights, I'm adding to my position on Alcaraz as his price has drifted. Most likely the drift is due to him struggling so badly as such a big favourite against Ramos-Vinolas and also because of the potential impact of accumulated fatigue. In normal circumstances I'd agree that so much energy spent on the court against an opponent who was supposed to have been beaten easily would be a bad thing, but in this case I think it might do more good than harm. Coming into this tournament there was a question mark about how Alcaraz would cope in longer matches, and having just played and won the longest match of his career and having done it from two sets to one down that question has been answered. I think it'll give Alcaraz a big boost to know that he can go the distance and find a way to win when not at his best and staring down the barrel of defeat, which is what all the best players are able to do if needed.
I've also added to my bet on Tsitsipas as he's also drifted slightly which is probably to do with easy wins for both Djokovic and Nadal. He plays today and should get a win in straight sets, which should help to offset his exertions against Musetti in the last round.
 
10pts Ruud (vs. Ruusuvuori) x Medvedev (vs. Djere) x Sinner (vs. Carballes Baena) @ 1.94 365
20pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 4.14 Betfair Exchange
15pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.27 Betfair Exchange
 

Sorana Cirstea to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Cirstea was quite shaky against Maria, but she should get her act together and Stephens would've been out were it not for Niemeier's injury. She can be soooo bad at times these days that I simply can't trust her against a proven opponent that has enough power to stay with her in rallies.
Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Elsa Jacquemot at 1.83 with Unibet
Yes, the dreaded set handicap again for me, as I think that Jacquemot will get thoroughly out-classed here. She was pretty average against Watson, who missed a million chances, while Kerber is going through some sort of a renaissance in recent weeks, having won a title going into this and producing a stunning fightback in round one.

Yes, agree.  Sprint? Never, it's a Marathon!
Have a nice vacation.

Yes, agree.  Sprint? Never, it's a Marathon!
Have a nice vacation.

It's annoying, but the whole thing is not a sprint. It is one endless bet, where if you apply an edge, over time you will be in profit. Very much like poker. In the short term anything can happen.
I probably won't post tomorrow or Thurs. Off to the USA for 6 weeks vacation. Should be good but 16 hours in cattle class row 48 could be brutal. Just need a huge person next to me and a screaming baby to top it off ?

Play about to start so will have to be brief. After Nadal and Djokovic got good wins yesterday, Alcaraz has drifted and so I'm now going to back him. Tsitsipas has also drifted so I'm going to put a bit more on him. There's only one match I like which is Garcia to beat Townsend. She hasn't played since Miami but tends to come alive here, so I think she's worth taking a risk on. Finally I'm taking one short odds treble of Sonego, Rublev and Carreno-Busta. Not much to say about that except they should all get the job done, maybe not in straight sets but I'll be surprised if they don't all win.
 
15pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange
10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange
15pts Garcia to beat Townsend @ 2.50 365
10pts Sonego (vs. Gojowczyk) x Rublev (vs. Kwon) x Carreno-Busta (vs. Simon) @ 1.25 365

Only 3 low priced matches today;
5/24/2022  de Minaur v H Gaston             A de Minaur   0.16 5/24/2022  Collins v Tomova             Collins   0.12 5/24/2022  Pegula v Q Wang             Pegula, Jessica 0.2 Collins is very good on clay and I expect her to win easily. I would be going for the Collins win and under 18.5 games which is even money on bet365. I will also take in form Claire Lui to win against Zidansek and take these two as a double (2.0*1.8) -1 = 2.6 to 1.
In another upset I think Mayer Sherif beats Marta Kostyuk. Kostyuk all over the place, inconsistent, with the Ukrainian war occupying her mind at the moment.
Looking at how Wang has been beaten on clay, the serve is definitely weak. Will also take Pegula -5 handicap.
 
 

Holger Noedskov Rune to beat Denis Shapovalov at 2.2 with bet365
Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.66 with bet365
Elise Mertens to beat Mari Bouzkova at 1.9 with bet365
Rune aspires to become an established force on clay, and I think that he proceeds slowly and methodically in the right direction. He's a young guy with plenty of ambition. Sure, someone may argue that he's still mentally fragile, but so is his opponent. As far as the game is concerned, I expect Rune to expose and exploit Shapovalov's bh which remains unreliable and weak after so many years; I believe his game is ideal only for grass.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Ruusuvuori and Humbert were considered as hot prospects for the future a few years ago, when they were dominant forces in the ATP Challenger Tour. Both have failed to live up to the expectations of the global tennis community so far. I think the Frenchman thrives on a very specific type of hardcourt (Tokyo Olympics). His game seems to be inadequate, especially on clay. Ruusuvuori possesses more firepower and builds the point better than Ugo on slow surfaces... 
------------------------------------------------------------------
I cannot understand why Mertens isn't a clear favorite against Bouzkova to be honest. Personally I evaluate her as a much better player than Mari, on all aspects of the game (serve, fh, bh, retrieving skills, creating angles, footwork etc).
 
Good luck.