Pep004
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Posts posted by Pep004
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Real Betis v Espanyol
Preview: After winning only one point in three rounds after the break, 14th Betis will host the last-placed Espanyol who started this post-break period with the win over Alaves and a draw against Getafe away, but disappointed in the last match at home against Levante (lost 1-3). The official referee will be Juan Martinez Munuera.
Real Betis continues with the miserable form and for that reason, Betis sacked the manager Rubi, but their president Haro addressed problems not just to the coach, but to the whole board including himself, saying that they have made plenty of mistakes in this year, where they were aiming for European spots. They invested a huge amount of money in some well-known players - they have 8 national players and at the moment, their transfer market value is 238,30M €. The new manager, or let's say "caretaker" Trujillo knows the club pretty well as he worked in the same position in the season 2016/17. He was in charge for the last two matches of the season, and he drew both matches - Atletico Madrid (1-1), Sporting Gijon (2-2). Anyways, the truth is he will have a way more "massive" squad available. There are some players doubtful, some linked to other clubs, but in any case at least by names, his XI will look pretty decent.
I've been already talking about Abelardo's Espanyol. As mentioned above, they started this post-break period pretty solid but couldn't hold the unbeaten run against Levante last round. They still had more than enough chances, but they simply conceded cheap goals and stayed without any points. Abelardo will have to cope with the fact that he can not count defenders Espinosa and Cabrera who are suspended. Probably even a bigger problem is the current state of Raul de Tomas, who has problems with the knee injury.
All in all, if nothing changed before this match, so with the old situation at Betis, Raul de Tomas available for Abelardo, I was leaning to Espanyol +0,5, but with all the problems for Abelardo, the new coach factor, the fact that this Betis side still sounds amazing on the paper - there is 100M € difference in the squad worth between those two sides. That wouldn't be such a huge surprise if we are talking for example about two top top clubs and one simply possesses a player that has enormous value, but we are talking about two "mid-table" teams, which entered this season with completely different goals. Now, I am leaning more and more to the home win, and at 2,20 I think there is some value. Still, my suggestion will be on the goals market so ...
Betting suggestion:
- Betis team totals over 1,5 @2,27 Pinnacle
- Both teams to score @1,833 Pinnacle
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Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo
Preview: Real Sociedad will host Celta Vigo on Anoeta tonight at 19:30. The official referee will be Prieto Iglesias, who is known as one of referee’s that likes to show a high number of cards. His average is 4,78 yellow cards per match. Real Sociedad is still among those places hoping for the European spot next season, while Celta is actually on the other side of the table with only 4 points more than 18th placed Mallorca.
Real Sociedad found themselves in a very interesting position after the break, as they were holding the 4th position that was still leading into Champions League next season. As it was expected, Atletico Madrid charged their batteries well and stepped up and jumped on the third spot so now Sevilla is 4th, with 53 points. Sociedad lost their position with two defeats – first against Alaves and lastly against Real Madrid, but we have to admit that they didn’t play bad against Real Madrid and that there was plenty of “suspicious” situations in this match (disallowed goal for Sociedad, the penalty for Real Madrid, etc). Well, the match is over and now they will host another team fighting for relegation after Alaves, but they have to perform way better if they don’t want to be surprised once again. A huge blow for the home side is definitely the fact that they can not count on suspended Illaramendi.
Celta demolished Deportivo Alaves in the last round with a huge 6-0 win and are at 30 points at the moment. They had problems offensively as they didn’t score on 4 matches in a row, but with 6 goals in the last round, I believe the mindset, especially of those offensive players will be completely different. Ex. Barcelona players Rafinha and Denis Suarez played a very decent match and I expect both to be in the lineup once again. When you add Iago Aspas, Mina, Nolito, you question yourself what is this team doing down there on the table.
However, I look at this team of Celta, I can not miss the potential they have offensively. Even though they couldn’t find the formula for how to make this attack working, I expect that after scoring 6 goals things will change and that they will start playing a bit more “stressless” in the attack. Real Sociedad conceded 38 goals so far, which isn’t too much but without Illaramendi, they will miss one important player in especially defensive operations, so I think there will be plenty of rooms for Celta between the lines. I was leaning to Celta +0,5 here as well, but as they are easily capable of playing “super cold – super hot” variation in this match, I rather suggest both teams to score.
Betting suggestion:
- both teams to score @1,98 Pinnacle
- option for parlays: Celta Vigo team totals over 0,5 @1,53 Pinnacle
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Manchester United v Sheffield United
Preview: Only 2 points are separating currently 5th Manchester United and 8th Sheffield United so we should have an intense match tonight on Old Trafford. The official referee will be Anthony Taylor who usually likes to show a high number of cards. The weather in Manchester is sunny so the pitch condition will be good, but it will be quite warm as 27°C is predicted around 20:00.
Manchester with Ole Gunnar Solskjear had plenty of ups and downs this season but they are still aiming for the top 4 and the Champions League in the next season. To reach that, they will have to close the gap with 4th Chelsea who are 4 points in front of them. To do that, they have undoubtedly win this match against Sheffield who are doing surprisingly good this season. Pogba was one of the brightest individuals in the second half against Tottenham last Friday, and I expect the French midfielder to come back in the first XI which means Ole will probably drop the young McTominay or change the formation, which I think won’t happen. I believe Man U remembers how they were 2-0 down in the first match on Bramall Lane and I expect them to start way more serious from the first minute here. Solskjaer has almost no injury issues and except maybe Lindelof who had a minor injury against Tottenham, he has all important players available.
Sheffield absolutely surprised everyone with the current 8th place but with 44 points, they are only 7 points above the 14th Southampton. Without doubt, they can be relaxed as there is no chance they will find themselves in the relegation battle, but the income if you finish 8th or 14th is not the same, moreover however it sounds funny when you see teams like Manchester United, Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, Wolverhampton, around, they theoretically still have chances to reach European spots for the next season. Chris Wilder has few more issues than his colleague on the other bench, as he can not count on the first goalkeeper Henderson (loaned from Manchester United), and suspended fullback Egan. Moreover, the fitness status of central defender O’Connell who missed the first two fixtures of Sheffield is questionable.
I expect Manchester United to have an upper hand in this encounter. Individually, it’s completely useless to compare these two sides as Manchester is undoubtedly way better. The question is what kind of Manchester will we see on the pitch tonight? If we will see the Man United from the second half against Tottenham, I think we can comfortably aim for higher odds like 2,40 for Asian handicap -1,5. Regarding the financial status, wagers, and the fan’s expectations, I think Manchester United are way more “in need” of all three points here. Sheffield is definitely a side that likes to surprise bigger teams but without their first goalkeeper and important defenders, I think their chances are even a bit smaller. They are a team that likes to play crosses, push for set-pieces, as they are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to aerial duels, but Manchester United with some really tall players like Maguire (1,94m) should have an answer to that.
The betting suggestion is to split the stake into those two options:
- Manchester United -1,25 @2,04 Pinnacle
- Manchester United team totals over 1,5 @1,70 Pinnacle
Norwich v Everton
Preview: Carrow Road in Norwich will be the venue of the match between Norwich and Everton. If nothing spectacular will happen in those last rounds, Carrow Road won’t host the Premier League matches next season as Norwich is sitting deep at the bottom with 6 points behind the relegation “line” and moreover, besides Everton, they still have face Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City until the end of the season. Everton on the other side are for them on a disastrous 12th place with 38 points and are pretty far from the European spots. The official referee will be Andy Madley whose average of yellow cards is 3,38 per match.
Norwich who are still in FA Cup as they qualified through the penalty shootouts against Tottenham as mentioned aren’t in a good situation. With plenty of tough matches upcoming, they are 6 points behind the relegation zone and after the horrible performance against Southampton (3-0 defeat), it is hard to say some positive words about this group. They look too weak offensively – scored only 25 goals in 30 matches, (the worst in the league), too weak defensively – conceded 55 goals (2nd worst), and I really can not see any positive things about this team. They have Hanley, Zimmermann, and Byram out injured, while the midfielder Stiepermann just came back to training after being tested positive for the virus earlier.
Everton expected a way different season as they have and the 12th position is definitely not something that will satisfy nor the leaderboard, nor the fans. Ancelotti still has plenty of players on the injury list – Sidibe, Mina, Delph, Tosun, Walcott, and Gbamin, but looking at the possible lineup we can still see a very decent squad with some great individuals who should perform way better. Against Liverpool, they were concretely outplayed when it comes for possession (only 29%), but they had their chances and they defended pretty well organized. Ancelotti is in the lead of Everton since December 2019 and he has 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats in Premier League. I do believe that this club can profit from his experiences and I expect them to bounce back until the end of the season.
Even though the head-to-head statistics are 5-5 and that Norwich shocked Everton on the first match this season and beat them with 0-2, I think it’s payback time and even though trends are aiming to the both to score and overs, I simply like the odds on straight away win. I don’t know how much strength and especially living hopes are still in the locker-room of Norwich while on the other side Everton simply have to improve their “balance” until the end of the season. With an experienced coach as Ancelotti definitely is, as mentioned, I expect Everton to bounce back a little and finish in top10.
Betting suggestion:
- Everton -0,5 @1,93 Pinnacle
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Leicester v Brighton
Preview: The 3rd placed Leicester City will host 15th Brighton & Hove Albion on their King Power Stadium. The official referee will be 48 years old Lee Mason. Leicester are still holding the 3rd spot with 3 points advantage in front of Chelsea, while on the other hand, Brighton are only 5 points away from the relegation zone.
Leicester are having another positive season with Brandan Rodgers and they are on a good road to reach the Champions League for the next season, as they are currently 8 points in front of 5th Manchester United. At the same time, 2nd Manchester City is 9 points in front, therefore the 3rd position is realistically the most they can reach this season. Except for the young Justin who took the place of injured Ricardo Pereira, there should be no bigger changes in the 11 of Rodgers. With all guns in front – Vardy, Maddison, Perez, Barnes, Gray, and a very decent backline even without Pereira, I think The Foxes are simply too good to let points go away against an opponent as Brighton.
I think there are tough times in front of Brighton, who still have to face Leicester, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Manchester City in those last rounds. As they are only 5 points away from the 18th Bournemouth, they simply have to aim for the points and can not calculate on any of those matches. Graham Potter has almost the whole squad available, with only striker Alzate being doubtful. After a huge win over Arsenal, I believe they will be a bit less stressed with the need of points, but I don’t believe they got any morale boost in this match, as everyone knows that if we repeat this match 10 times, Arsenal will probably take all 3 points in 9 of them. I want to say that they were lucky to snap the win against Gunners and without being as lucky or even more, I think they won’t be able to seriously harm Leicester.
I think that Ndidi and Tielemans will dictate the tempo of the match, as I expect Leicester to have more possession. With players they have in attack, they usually don’t need too many chances and I expect their forwards to deliver. They only drew against Watford in the first match after the break, but we have to admit that Watford played really solid and I’d even say they will finish in front of Brighton even though they are 4 points behind them at the moment. Brighton is usually a team that plays extremely defensively against top teams and tries with counters or even more set-pieces, but today they won’t face the top team like Manchester City that will try to keep the ball and create their chances by possession game, but they will face the team that will attack them straight and directly, sometimes even “through the wall” and I think Leicester is simply stronger, more physical and too good at what they do, therefore I think Brighton will have to look for their points elsewhere.
Betting suggestion (I suggest splitting the stake on those two selections):
- Leicester -0,75 @1,88 Pinnacle
- Leicester team totals over 1,5 @1,88 Pinnacle
Tottenham v West Ham
Preview: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will host the match between two sides that can be very disappointed by the current standings as the home Tottenham are 8th with 42 points, and West Ham 17th, straight on the relegation line with Bournemouth at 27 points. The official referee will be Craig Pawson.
Jose Mourinho is one of those managers who can definitely be “happy” about the break, as he got back some players that were supposed to stay out until the end of the season. Lucas Moura still has some minor problems but will be available for the match. Today, Mourinho will be able to count on Dele Alli who’s coming back after suspension and looking at the players like Kane, Dele, Son, Bergwijn, Lucas, Lamela, Lo Celso, we can easily see that this team have enormous potential in the attack. Moreover, with options like Gedson, Sissoko, Dier, Winks in the midfield, and a pretty decent back 4, I think Mourinho this time has no right for any kind of complaints because he has a lot of high-quality players, a lot of options, variations, etc.
West Ham as mentioned are definitely not satisfied with the season and are currently in a very dangerous position with 18th Bournemouth at the same number of points and 19th Aston Villa only a point less. We can almost “cut” Norwich off as they are 6 points behind in the last place, but the 18-19th place are leading to the 2nd league as well, so there is huge pressure on David Moyes and his team. He can not count on the best goalscorer Haller, regular midfielder Snodgrass, while Ogbona, Zabaleta, and Musuaku are having some minor injuries and are doubtful.
Both sides are eager for points – one fighting for European spots, the other for the relegation. I simply think there is a pretty big difference in quality and Tottenham should take advantage of that. They also have much fewer problems with injuries. As mentioned Mourinho has plenty of options this match, so he can prepare different varieties and with “cooling break” they can talk and change plenty of things in case that the main instructions won’t work. 5th placed Manchester United is only 4 points in front of Spurs so I think they can still turn the things upside down, but there are teams like Arsenal, Wolverhampton, Everton who aren’t doing as well as they could, especially Arsenal and Everton so Spurs simply have to win matches like this one is.
Betting suggestion (I suggest splitting the stake on those two selections):
- Tottenham -0,75 @1,98 Pinnacle
- Tottenham team totals over 1,5 goals @1,833 Pinnacle
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Preview: Premier League is back! And already in the first round after the break, we will watch the derby between Manchester City and Arsenal. Citizens are currently holding the 2nd place with 4 points more than 3rd Leicester, while Arsenal have another difficult season - currently 9th, but the 5th Manchester United is only 5 points in front. The referee will be Anthony Taylor, who we can remember from the match between PSG and Borussia Dortmund where he gave 7 yellow and 1 red card.
Manchester City lost the Manchester derby right before the virus outbreak and will be looking to bounce back with the positive result against the Gunners. This break gave their manager Pep Guardiola something that he probably can not remember since he joined the Citizens - it gave him all players available for the match. The team that often have two or even three regulars out due to injuries, will this time be complete and due to the possibility of 5 substitutions, we can expect some tactical changes during the match. City won 5 of the last 6 matches, but except pretty solid performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League, their performances in the league weren't something exceptional.
Arsenal as mentioned is having another season full of ups and downs, and can not find consistency. When you already think things will get better now, they disappoint once again or vice versa - you think they will need a lot of time to recover, and they perform at their best. Therefore they are really hard to predict. They have a strong weapon on their bench in Arteta, who has worked as Guardiola's assistant in City for years and knows the club very well. He can not count on Torreira and Chambers, but has all other players available.
Tough to say what is gonna happen after the break. I expect Manchester City to control the game, having a huge amount of possession as usual but Arsenal on the other hand with players like Lacazette, Aubameyang, Pepe, ... will definitely be dangerous on the break. I think that during the normal season if those two teams are in a normal rhythm of games, those odds are pretty precise, but after the pause, I think there is absolutely no value on the home side. Don't get me wrong, the stats and everything is hardly pointing to a clear home victory and even I do think Citizens will win this match, but odds are as short as 1,35 which means bookies are giving Man City 75% to win the match. Well, for me, given the situation, that's simply too much. With the offensive strength of both sides, and especially due to the fact that City this season simply misses one leader as Kompany (+ injuries of Laporte), I think Arsenal will score at least once here.
Betting suggestion:
- both to score & over 2,5 goals at 1,943 Pinnacle
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Osasuna v Atletico Madrid
Preview: Stadium El Sadar in Pamplona will host the match between 11th Osasuna and 6th Atletico Madrid. The referee will be Ricardo de Burgos who is known as a referee that likes to show plenty of cards. He has shown 59 yellow and 3 red cards in last 10 matches. Atletico will continue their “war” for the CL spot, while Osasuna pretty much safe in the middle of the table with 10 points above the relegation zone.
For me, the team from Pamplona is definitely one of the surprises in La Liga this season, as I didn’t expect them to be in so much comfortable situation 10 rounds before the end. Of course, there is still plenty of matches, and things can turn “southern”, but I don’t believe it. They returned after the break with the draw away at Real Sociedad, where it’s true that they were defending for the majority of the match, but they scored first, and when Osasuna scores first, it’s always tough to break them down as they really drop the defensive line and simply defend for the rest of the game. The question about tonight’s match is if they will change their 5-men defense back to 4, or keep it at 5 as they played the majority of the match against Sociedad. The best goalscorer Avila is still out injured, which means we will probably once again see the pair Adrian Lopez – Cardona.
Atletico is at the moment on the 6th spot, which definitely isn’t enough for their demands. Regarding the squad and the importance of the name of the club in past years, it’s simply necessary for Simeone’s men to reach at least the 4th spot. Getafe and Sevilla both lost 2 points this round, which means a very good opportunity for Atletico to jump higher on the league table. That could be the round, where Atletico jumps over Getafe and Sociedad (if they fail against Alaves) and reduces the gap with Sevilla on only 2 points! Simeone will miss Vrsaljko, Vitolo, and Felipe, but has the whole first 11 available, so there should be no excuses for tonight.
Even though there are rumors that Osasuna will go back to the 4-men defense, I have serious doubts about that and I expect them with 5 at the back. If there will be no crazy goals out of nowhere – regarding the two opponents that shouldn’t happen – then that should stay more like a lower scoring match, but still with the away side taking all the three points. Atletico is definitely a team that belongs in the top4 of the league and it would be a huge surprise if that won’t happen. As mentioned, results in this round are going in the favor of Atletico, but all of that will be useless if they don’t add three points to their name. They are the better side, they have much more experiences, they already dropped points with Bilbao last round, and they will win this match no matter what!
Betting suggestion:
- Atletico Madrid -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle
Other suggestions: Atletico & under 2,5 @3,70, Atletico win to nil @2,80
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Villarreal v Mallorca
Preview: With 41 points after 28 rounds, the Yellow submarine can still aim for European places. It’s expected that the 7th place will still lead in Europe and Villarreal are 2 points behind 7th Valencia at the moment. Mallorca on the other side is 1 point behind 17th Celta Vigo and only 2 in front of Leganes and Espanyol, therefore every match is super important.
Villarreal reached the important victory away at Celta Vigo who are in the “relegation battle” as well. With those three points, they canceled the negative run of three defeats they had before the break. The defeat against Leganes on the 8th of March was definitely a harsh punch and as it seems, the break came at the good time for them. With Iborra suspended, we will see the 4-3-3 formation with Zambo, Trigueros, and Cazorla in midfield.
Yes, Mallorca is in a bad position but at the same time, we have to admit they had their chances against Barcelona. Altogether, they had 13 shots, and some of them were actually decent chances. The truth is that in the first 10 minutes, Barça could already be 3 goals in front, but after that Mallorca pressed and especially over youngster Kubo prepared some very solid chances. Daniel Rodriguez is the suspended player and will most likely mean we will see Lago on the wing.
I do expect the home win here, but odds are pretty low so I would be looking at Asian handicaps. At the moment, we can get -1 at 1,653 which is in my opinion still too short. Seeing the lineup of Villarreal with three very offensive players up-front Paco, Bacca, and Chukwueze, I see value in goals. Especially thanks to the fact that Mallorca produced some chances against Barça. Yes, they are catastrophic when playing away, but if they don’t change that, I’m afraid that chances for them to avoid the relegation are very small. Very interesting odds are also Villarreal to win and both teams to score at 3,25.
Betting suggestion:
- over 2 goals @1,91 Pinnacle
- Both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,38 Pinnacle
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Getafe v Espanyol
Preview: Getafe is still flying high, keeping 5th place with 46 points but there is no doubt, that it will be very tough to keep this place with names like Atletico Madrid and Valencia being behind. With 4 and 5 points less, there are also Granada and Villarreal who can somehow count on a surprise as well. Getafe’s opponent will be the last placed Espanyol, who drastically changed after Abelardo took the team in his hand.
Getafe surely didn’t count on losing in Granada (2-1) and will try to bounce back today against Espanyol. Of course, that won’t be anywhere near easy, as Espanyol are in bloody need of points. With Etxeita suspended, we will probably see the pair Djene-Cabaco in the central defense. Bordalas has also Arambarri and Maksimović available after suspension, therefore the central midfield of Getafe will definitely look better than against Granada.
Espanyol as mentioned above have changed a lot since they named Abelardo as a head coach. All the 5 wins they got this season were under his leadership (and 18 of 25 goals) and I seriously think they won’t be the one that will be relegated. They won an important match in the last round against relegation rival Alaves with 2-0 and they had impressive 19 shots with 69% possession in this match. They also allowed only 1 shot to the opponent, who was really with the player less from the 19th minute on, but that doesn’t change the fact that we Abelardo wants to have an offensive-minded team on the pitch.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Espanyol having more possession in this match, but that doesn’t bother Getafe too much as they are a team that likes to strike directly after winning the possession. Both sides will want all three points here, but I think that odds are for the winner’s market are set pretty good, just a bit above evens. But I do like the goals market as I think we might see much more offensive from Espanyol than bookies are expecting.
Betting suggestion:
- both teams to score @2,50 Pinnacle
- over 2 goals @2,28 Pinnacle
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Levante v Sevilla
Short preview: today at 19:30, 12th placed Levante will host 3rd Sevilla on Estadio Milo Cano in Nucia. The stadium will be empty, therefore Levante won't be able to enjoy the support of the home crowd and as we were able to see in Bundesliga, the advantage of the home ground has almost disappeared. For now, there is no pressure on Levante as they are 9 points above the relegation. Sevilla on the other side took advantage of the 28th round and made the gap with Atletico Madrid a bit bigger (4 points).
Levante drew in the local derby against Valencia 3 days ago, and once again shown that they are a team that likes to steal points from bigger clubs. They had a very positive record at home before the outbreak of Covid-19 as they won 9 of possible 12 points in the last 4 matches, including the 1-0 win over Real Madrid. Levante actually grabbed a win against both giants - Real and Barcelona on Milo Cano but the ambiance definitely won't be the same against Sevilla. The major issue for the manager Paco Lopez is that he has his best scorer Roger Marti unavailable due to suspension.
Sevilla is coming into the match after comfortably getting 3 points on the derby with Betis and without any injury concerns for the coach Lopetegui. One major factor which is going in their favor is the fact, that they have a pretty big squad and for example today, he can use players like Banega, Gudelj, En-Nesyri, Suso, Gomez, Rony Lopes, Escudero, Vazquez, ... who all stayed or on the bench, or were subbed in against Betis.
I expect Levante to try to play and surprise another big team in La Liga but at the same time I see this Sevilla with Lopetegui on the bench pretty serious and I don't believe they will let their Champions League place to someone else. They are 3 points ahead of Sociedad and 4 in front of Getafe and Atletico Madrid and as they play first, they can add more pressure on others again. Here, I have mostly in mind Atletico Madrid, who will definitely push hard to get into this top4. Usually, we see goals between Levante and Sevilla, and with the fact that there will be no extra pressure for the home side, as mentioned, I expect them to attack and surprise Sevilla. On the other hand, Sevilla simply possess too much quality, they started this period with a very decent performance and clean win over the city rivals, and I expect them scoring at least once more than Levante.
Betting suggestions:
- Sevilla -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle
- both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle
- both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,26 Pinnacle
- Sevilla to win & both to score @3,50 Pinnacle
* I think odds on Sevilla are pretty short, and in-play you might get much better odds really early in the game. Anyways, here are suggestions, pick the one that suits you the best. Still, I suggest taking smaller stakes! If you are aiming to take all options, then I suggest splitting the stake!
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Sevilla v Real Betis
Preview: La Liga is back! And they will offer us so-called "El Gran Derbi" between Sevilla and Real Betis, two teams from Sevilla. As we were used to see in past seasons, Sevilla are the club with the upper hand as they are once again much better positioned than their rival (Sevilla 3rd, with 47 points; Betis 12th, with 33 points). At the moment, Sevilla is in a very hot spot, as they are the leading team in the group of 4 teams - Sevilla 47, Real Sociedad and Getafe 46, and Atletico Madrid 45 points, plus we can not cut off Valencia on the 7th with 42 points. Therefore every single match will be very important for the team of Lopetegui. Real Betis on the other side are currently 12th, and even though they had bigger ambitions before the season. Right now, they are 12 points behind 6th Atletico and 8 points above the relegation zone.
This time, Pizjuan definitely won't look like that...
Sevilla was in a pretty solid form before the break as they won away at as mentioned, very good Getafe with 0-3 on Coliseum, then Osasuna at home with 3-2, and in the last match they drew with away at Atletico Madrid (2-2). Besides that, they played 0-0 at home and 1-1 away at Cluj and will play face AS Rome in the next phase of the Europa League. Coach Lopetegui has some problems with the winger Ocampos, who has slightly injured his adductor and is questionable. As we were able to see in Bundesliga, rotations will be very important as they plan to play all 11 rounds of La Liga in only 6 weeks! Sevilla have a pretty wide squad and with a very good coach as Lopetegui definitely is, they should not be among those who will suffer a lot due to the short bench.
The board of Real Betis had much bigger expectations for this season, as they spent a bit more than 100M € in the transfer period before the season. The break might even come at a good time for them as, except the last surprising win over Real Madrid with 2-1, they had a run of 7 matches without winning the match. In my opinion, they have an exceptional squad and those who were reading my posts were able to see that I liked to play overs and both teams to score on their matches, as they were simply a team that was very solid offensively, and at the same time very weak at the defense. They conceded 43 goals, plenty of them due to the lack of concentration and poor positioning. Talking about the depth, Betis isn't a team that should be among those struggling the most either, as Rubi has some option to rotate as well.
As I said many times, in my opinion, matches are the best training, but the tempo will be simply extremely high and for some teams very hardly followed. Some players were used to play with this rhythm, but most of them aren't and therefore I suggest being careful with stakes for 1-2 rounds, to see a bit how some individuals worked during the quarantine. Obviously, clubs were tracking their activity level, giving them training, checking all the available data but still, some players worked harder than others and that should be visible in those first rounds. I'd go with Sevilla here, but not without their fans on Pizjuan. Fans in a derby like this are always a huge advantage, especially in those two clubs, where they always prepare a living hell to each other. This time, it will be more about tactics, superiority, team quality, individual quality, and I think Betis is simply too weak at the back, and I expect Sevilla to score at least twice. Still, that might not be enough for the win...
Betting suggestions:
- both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle
- Sevilla team totals over 1,5 @1,925
- both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,24 Pinnacle
- sajtion and StevieDay1983
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Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
Betting suggestion:
- both to score & over 2,5 goals @1,85 Pinnacle
- Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @1,73 Pinnacle
Short preview: I’ve been on the “Frankfurt train” for a whole, and I will keep with them as they simply look like a team that found the way how to get the things done after the break. Yes, they lost against Bayern in the first match with 5-2, but I think it’s really unnecessary to speak about Bayern and compare it to the rest of the league at the moment. Frankfurt have won their last two matches, and neither of them was against an easy opponent. Firstly, they won against Wolfsburg away, then against Werder. Two teams in different zones, first fighting for European spots, while second fighting to avoid the relegation. This time, they will face another team that is fighting to avoid the relegation, but at least at the moment seems to be pretty weak and even though they somehow found the way in past years to avoid to be relegated, it seems more and more possible, that they will find themselves on positions that are leading to the “Zweite Bundesliga”, or at least to qualifications with the 3rd best team of the second league. They drew against Union Berlin, they lost against Leipzig and Hoffenheim at home, and they will be pretty much under pressure today against Frankfurt. As I’ve said in the past two rounds, Frankfurt isn’t a bad team and they deserve to be at least in the top 10 if not higher. With Andre Silva and Dost keeping up in form, always dangerous Kostić and Kamada, this team of Hütter especially now, playing “relaxed” as they made an 8 points gap with the 16th Fortuna, will be simply too much at least offensively. They conceded some easy goals anyways, especially against Freiburg (3-3), but their offensive part have delivered so far, therefore I think taking their goals is the safest option. Interesting option is also Frankfurt & over 2,5 goals at 2,75!
- allyhibs and StevieDay1983
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2
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4 hours ago, differ said:
Tonight it will be a cool and rainy match in the Black Forrest. Freiburg is traditonally strong when its cold and rainy in Freiburg.
From the last 23 matches between Freiburg and Gladbach there was no away win.
I think with Waldschmidt back and Grifo in good form there will be a g/g in this match.
My CS prediction is 1:1
other picks for this weekend:
Augsburg - Köln = over 2,5
Frankfurt - Mainz = over 2,5 and Home win
Bayer - Bayern = g/g , g/g first half
Düsseldorf - Hoffenheim = draw g/g CS 1:1
Leipzig HC -2,5 / over 4,5
Other pick today: Isloch Reserve - Ruh Brest reserve = Home win , over 3,5
Thanks for that! I am adding "both to score & over 2,5 goals at 2,00 Pinnacle.
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Freiburg v Borussia Moenchengladbach
Betting suggestions:
- Gladbach -0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle
- Gladbach team totals over 1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle
Short preview: The first duel of the 30th round of Bundesliga, will be played on Schwarzwald-Stadion, where will 8th placed Freiburg host the 4th Gladbach. Those two teams look much closer if comparing their position than the number of points – Freiburg 38, Gladbach 56. Therefore both in a completely different situation, but they both have a chance to finish with the same “award” at the end – at least when it comes to the European spots. Freiburg is 4 points behind 6th Wolfsburg, while Gladbach is “sharing” the 4th spot with Bayer Leverkusen. Therefore, it can happen that they finish 5th and 6th, which means both will participate in the Europe League next season. As I’ve mentioned in the last analyses, there are only 5 rounds until the end, and regarding the fact that Gladbach will have to face Bayern away in the next round, and Wolfsburg and “awaken” Hertha at home, they are simply not allowed to skip points here. With empty stadiums, we’ve seen that there is a much smaller advantage of the home ground, so I am willing to take them even though the odds are pretty short. The importance of three points for them is simply too big, they raised the atmosphere in the locker-room with the 4-1 win over Union Berlin, and after some of their individuals are performing as they are, I do believe in this team. Freiburg have won only 3 times since the 14th of December 2019 and are on the road downwards for a while now (3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats – before the break and 0, 2, 2 after the break). To be more precise, they drew with Leipzig and Frankfurt, but on both matches, they could have finished with 5 goals behind the opponent. Same against Leverkusen, where they lost “only” 0-1, but it could have been much more. It’s hard to predict how will Freiburg enter this match, as they are really out of form, but I believe Gladbach will press and attack from the beginning of the match. They are a better side, they have some individuals Freiburg can only dream about, and if nothing else, than individual superiority, should be the reason that Gladbach leaves the Schwarzwald-Stadion with all three points. I’m not sure about Freiburg’s European interest as I think they don’t have a squad that would be capable of playing equivalently on more fronts, and I think they will be completely satisfied with the mid-table finish. One interesting information about Freiburg: “In the last 10 matches, they have averaged only 1 xGF per game! Counting only the matches after the break, this number dropped to 0,7 xGF per game! And yes, they scored 3-times in Frankfurt…
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Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Betting suggestions:
- both teams to score & over 2,5 @2,06 Pinnacle
- Eintracht Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @2,17 Pinnacle
Short preview: Yes, this match has been postponed in the 24th round and actually isn't part of the 29th round of Bundesliga, but as it is the 29th match for both teams, I decided to put it here and not open a new post. As I've mentioned last time speaking about Werder Bremen, they started showing some signs of awakening, but they will face a decent side this time and it will be interesting to see how they will respond to the offensive-minded Frankfurt. Sahin, Toprak, Pizzaro are still amongst the injured players, but the only serious worry of the coach Kohfeldt is if one of his key players - Bittencourt (scored against Schalke) will be fit for this match, as he was subbed out at the half-time against Schalke due to the minor injury. Eintracht on the other side is still without Paciencia but have some other players stepping up in the form and I believe that after a huge win in Wolfsburg, they will be headed to Bremen with the same purpose - attack and create as many chances as possible. Against Wolfsburg, they weren't as aggressively attacking as against Freiburg just one round earlier, but Wolfsburg is definitely a team that stays more compact, and capable of defending well-organized, with plenty of physical players cover set-pieces solid as well. The statistics are just proving that, as they are 6th best defensive team in the league - conceding 36 goals in 29 matches (Leverkusen, Gladbach, Dortmund conceded 35). Werder Bremen, regardless of just hitting 3 clean-sheets in a row, are far from that as they conceded 59 goals until now, and are 3rd worst defensive team in the league. Thanks to their recent result, we have odds for over/under on a pretty decent line, but I do understand what are bookies doing over here - they are simply "gambling" on the question "whose style will take-over this match" and they are giving a bit of advantage to the home side. Well, I am doubtful about that. I believe Frankfurt won't sit deep, they won't flex with their defense as they aren't the best defensively - they conceded only 6 goals less than Werder and are in the bottom half as well when it comes to the table of conceded goals. But with what they can flex, it is definitely their attack. With 46 goals scored, they are the first team after top5 of Bundesliga (Bayern, BVB, Bayer, Gladbach, Leipzig) and with recent form - scored 7 goals in last 3 matches I do believe they will be simply offensive aggressive too much and therefore expect that Werder will sooner or later be in a position that they will have to score to stay in the match. On the other hand, I am not afraid of the vice-versa situation neither, as I think that if Werder scores, we'll see Frankfurt completely sending-in offensively and with Kostić, Kamada, Silva, Gačinović,... in a good form I can not imagine Werder being good enough defensively to keep them away from scoring. The worst-case scenario for the suggestion is if the match stays at 0-0 for a longer period, but with the way both teams are playing, I think that we'll see at least a goal in the first 30 minutes. The difference regarding the match with Gladbach, where Werder managed to keep, let's say a better side to a 0-0 draw, is in my opinion the fact that they were actually satisfied with the point and I believe they will have higher expectations tonight. They will try their best to grab a win and jump away from places that lead directly to relegation. Talking about the match-winner - there is plenty of people thinking in a simple way - Werder is in need of points, while Frankfurt plays "for nothing". I agree with that, as it's obviously a fact to this game, but I disagree with the argument of plenty of tipsters, that Werder will simply win because of that. Frankfurt is a team way better than some others in the bottom half of the league table, and as mentioned last time - in my opinion they dropped plenty of points because they weren't capable of fighting on two fronts - domestic league + Europa league. Now they are fully focused on Bundesliga, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Frankfurt winning once again. They did it against Wolfsburg, why not against Werder?
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Köln v Leipzig
Betting suggestion:
- Leipzig -1 @1,92 Pinnacle
- Leipzig & over 2,5 goals @1,81 Pinnacle
Short preview: Tonight at 20:30 on RheinEnergieStadion we will see the last match of the 29th round of Bundesliga, where will 11th placed Köln host 5th Leipzig. Hosts are still in a miserable form since the Bundesliga returned, as they won only two points in three matches. That might not be as bad as it sounds when you know the names of their opponents - Mainz, Fortuna, and Hoffenheim. Of course, they lost against Hoffenheim, but they were surely counting on more points from the first two matches. On the other side, we have Leipzig that missed the chance of jumping up to the second Dortmund in the last round - they failed against Hertha (2-2), and now they are sitting on the edge of the places that lead to the Champions League. As said yesterday for Gladbach, there is no place for mistakes as every single lost point will count almost double in the last matches. Both, Gladbach and Leverkusen are one point in front of Leipzig at the moment, so there will be nothing else than 3 points in their heads. Players of Köln can be calm for now, as they are 7 points ahead of the 18th Fortuna Düsseldorf, but I am not even counting on that too much here, as we could easily understand it in the way that there will be more pressure on shoulders of Leipzig and they won't be able to perform at their best, but Leipzig wants to become one of the teams that will standardly participate in Champions League and they definitely possess the quality to do so. Therefore, my main reason why I am suggesting to be on the side of "Red Bulls" here is not just because they simply must win this match, but also because they have much more quality in the team. As usual, they still have some problems with injuries, but their squad is gigantic. Nagelsmann can rotate among a high number of quality players they can adapt to different styles of football and I believe that their last match against Hertha simply wasn't their best day and that they will perform at the much higher level tonight against Köln. Bulls will be without red-carded Halstenberg who has let the team down against Hertha and still injured Ampadu, Konate and Poulsen. Nagelsmann was happy to get Kampl back in the first two matches "post-corona" but it looks like the midfielder picked up another injury and is doubtful for the match. Köln on the other hand, will miss suspended Bornauw, and injured Czichos. Other options are also Leipzig to score in both halves, priced around 2,20, or Leipzig team totals over 2 @1,74.
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Borussia Mönchengladbach v Union Berlin
Betting suggestions:
- Gladbach team totals over 2 @2,07 Pinnacle
- Gladbach -1 @1,91 Pinnacle
Short preview: The first Sunday’s match in the 29th round of Bundesliga will be played on Borussia-Park, where currently 5th placed Gladbach will host 13th Union Berlin. Gladbach started this season really good, but thanks to the major problems of all solid teams in Bundesliga (except Bayern) – inconsistency, they dropped down and right now they are holding the fifth place on the league table, with 11 points more than 6th Wolfsburg and in this round, they will have a chance to even extend the gap with “wolves”, as they lost against Frankfurt with 1-2. Union Berlin finally got a first point in the “post-corona” period as they played 1-1 against Mainz in the last round. Gladbach drew as well, but away at Werder who started showing some signs of being alive, especially after today’s win over Schalke. Unfortunately for the home manager, Gladbach is still without Embolo and Zakaria, but they still have Plea, Thuram, and I think that at least offensively, they shouldn’t have too many problems with breaking the defense of Union Berlin, which conceded 4 goals two rounds ago on the Berlin derby against Hertha. Gladbach is not only in a position to make a gap with Wolfsburg as mentioned before but also to jump over Leipzig on 4th, and equalize with Bayer Leverkusen on the league table. As it seems, Bayern added a new trophy to their name, but I believe we will be part of one hell of a race between Dortmund, Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Gladbach, who will be fighting for the Champions League spots. On the paper, Gladbach probably is the weakest team, but that’s just another reason why they have to win matches like this one is, especially regarding the situation. Union with only 4 points above Fortuna, is surely feeling some pressure as the 18th place leads to qualifiers to avoid relegation. I am not even doubtful about the fact, that they are coming in Gladbach to try to steal some points, but a question is what can their manager Fischer really change. With two defeats and one draw against poor Mainz at home, it seems that his boys didn’t come back in the best shape and I can not imagine them really well enough defensively, to hold Gladbach away. After a solid win over Frankfurt in the first match, Gladbach failed in the last two so with 6 rounds until the end of the season, and given the situation, there is definitely not the time to fail against teams like Union. Other options are also Gladbach ht/ft, priced around 2,20, or Gladbach and that they score more than 1,5 goals
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3 hours ago, sajtion said:
ffs i should really open a bookie shop and never lose
why?
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Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
Betting suggestion:
- Hertha -0,5 @1,94 Pinnacle
- Augsburg team totals under 1 @1,99 Pinnacle
Short preview: We could say that Hertha deserved “at least 2 points” in Leipzig as they played a very decent match. What surprised me the most was the performance of Boyata and Torunarigha, who were synchronized through the whole match against a very strong opponent. Leipzig played the solid first half, but even if they succeeded to create some gaps, they suffered in the final third. Someone might say “what are you talking, they conceded two goals…” Well, everyone who has seen the match knows what I’m talking about. The first goal came from the set-piece, while the second simply came as a gift from Jarstein. The key question for today’s match is – will Labbadia succeed to motivate his team to be eager to get 3 points as much as they were in Leipzig? Augsburg definitely isn’t an as attractive team as Leipzig, and at the moment they are only 4 points away from the 18th spot which leads to relegation qualifiers. Hertha didn’t start the season at their best, but it looks that the shock therapy with Labbadia worked well and with 7 points in the “post-corona” period, they are one of the most in-form teams in Bundesliga. With all the tall, physical players, with individuals like Cunha, veteran Ibisević, still, a guy who has to prove himself, Piatek, they have plenty of fire-weapons and they should score at least once here. On the other side, with the defensive performance in Leipzig, and obviously both results from first two matches – 4-0, 0-3, they convinced me but I suggest to take the safer option with Augsburg total under 1, which means the pick will be voided in case of exactly one goal scored by the away side. Of course, for those who like to chase higher odds, Hertha win to nil is priced at 3,70!
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Betting suggestion:
- both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,961 Pinnacle
Short preview: To be honest, firstly I had Wolfsburg to win here, but analyzing the match a bit more, I almost went to Frankfurt team totals over 1, but as the price is pretty low (1,74), I decided to simply suggest goals in this one. Wolfsburg ate plenty of staked units last time when they won away at Leverkusen, but even though they scored 4 times, I can not see them as a team to who I would “blindly” believe and follow to snap home wins, especially not against tricky opponents like Eintracht. They are a team that plays extremely offensive and the fact that they fired 35 shots against Freiburg in a very interesting match which finished with 3-3. Looking at stats, I believe no one can explain how that happened. As we know, the ball is rounded and everything can happen in football. Well, I wouldn’t be so surprised to see Eintracht snapping a point from Wolfsburg, but I would be surprised to see Wolfsburg keeping a clean sheet here. Frankfurt is only 2 points away from the 18th position, but I can not really imagine them playing anyhow different than they do – offensively. In my opinion, they are one of those teams who stayed in European competitions pretty long, and therefore they suffered in the league. We’ve seen similar things with Strasbourg and especially Rennes in Ligue 1. They don’t deserve to be that low on the league table, and I believe things will get better for them until the end of the season.
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Leipzig v Hertha Berlin
Betting suggestion:
- Leipzig & over 2,5 @1,746 Pinnacle
- RB Leipzig over 2,5 @2,07 Pinnacle
- Both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,892 Pinnacle
Short preview: I had those suggestions ready already yesterday but seeing Leverkusen failing against Wolfsburg at home, I thought odds might raise a bit and that’s what happened. Leipzig is entering this match from the 3rd position with 3 points less than 2nd Dortmund and 1 more than Gladbach and Leverkusen. As mentioned, Leverkusen lost yesterday, while Gladbach got only 1 point against Werder Bremen, and with the known defeat of Dortmund on Der Klassiker, Leipzig has great chances to equalize the number of points with Dortmund. As Jose Mourinho was used to say, Leipzig is a team with extremely solid bench, and with a great coach as Nagelsmann definitely is, they are capable of changing the rhythm of the game enormously with substitutions. We’ve seen this team playing at a really high level before the “corona-break” and what changed? Well, they got players like Upamecano and Kampl back available, and even though Ampadu, Konate, Poulsen are out, and Laimer picked up a smaller injury against Mainz and probably won’t start, they have Werner back scoring, Kampl returned after longer-term injury and shown a top performance on both matches and I think that even though Hertha won first two matches against Hoffenheim and Union Berlin with 0-3 and 4-0 and looks very positive after Labbadia took over. One of the best individuals is the recent signing from Leipzig, Matheus Cunha, and will be surely extra motivated today. Besides him, it looks that the veteran Ibisević “kicked out” Piatek from the position of lone striker but we might see both of them on the pitch today. Of course, everything will depend on the result but I can not see Hertha keeping another clean sheet. Leipzig is one of the teams that can attack with several different approaches and it will be very tough to defend without a mistake for the opponent. Both sides in a good form, both like to attack and even though I expect to see both sides scoring, I expect Leipzig to score at least three as usual at their Red Bull Arena.
Leipzig will miss Ampadu, Konate and Poulsen.
Hertha is coming without Stark, Rekik, Ascacibar, and suspended Kalou.
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Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
Betting suggestion:
- Leverkusen -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle
- over 2,5 & both teams to score @1,95 Pinnacle
Short preview: If we take a look at the league table, we can notice those two teams really close to each other (4th vs 6th), but with 14 points gap, it's clearly visible that Leverkusen have a much better season than Wolfsburg. The same goes for the form after the lockdown, as Leverkusen won both matches with 7-2 goal difference, while VfL won once and lost once. They won away at Augsburg, while they lost again Dortmund last week. As I watched the match, I have to say that they started the match with too much respect and everything looked much better in the second half when they prepared some chances, but Dortmund was simply better and I expect nothing different this time when they will be hosted by probably the best "most in-form" team in Bundesliga at the moment. Leverkusen, especially with Kai Havertz on fire looks very prolific. At home, they simply have to get the job done. Wolfsburg will try to get their chances in their "physical" way, with strong, tall strikers like Weghorst and Ginczek, but with the performance, they showed against they didn't convince me and I think it won't be enough for current Leverkusen. Moreover they added some "missing players" on the list with Mehmedi and Klaus being unavailable for the manager. They might score as a product of a set-piece situation or simply an in-play cross, but I see Leverkusen scoring at least one more.
Leverkusen will miss Bender, Tah, Volland.
Wolfsburg is still without Gerhardt, William, Otavio, Mehmedi, Guilavogui, Karamoko, Camacho and Klaus.
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Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
Betting suggestion:
- Borussia Dortmund +0,75 @1,884 Pinnacle
Short preview: I started talking about Der Klassiker already in the last round, where especially Dortmund had a tough task to do when they faced Wolfsburg away and they finished their job perfectly. Unfortunately for them, Bayern extended the gap right after by beating Eintracht with 5-2, therefore the situation hasn't really changed as Dortmund have to do everything not to lose this derby. Unfortunately, they won't be able to count on the great support from the standings which would definitely make the "life heavier" for the opponent. Good news for BVB is that Hans-Dieter Flick can not count on Thiago Alcantara who is without a single doubt the most creative player in their team. Anyways, Thiago hasn't participated in the last match against Frankfurt either, and Bayern won with 5-2 and looked like if they play on 50%. That might sound like they are monstrous but it can also sound like they didn't really reach the highest level, or let's say performed as good as they can. Will they perform at their maximum today? If they will, I believe they will win this match, but at the same time, I have to point out that BVB played some very mature football in the last two matches. I expect Bayern to dominate and create a bit more chances, but for me this match simply looks match more equalized than the bookies are showing. If the home side scores first, I think Bavarians will find themselves in a very tough position as they will be forced to play a bit less cautious and that would be a perfect situation for BVB as they are simply dreadful on counters. Once again, I do believe Bayern is the better side at the moment, that they have simply more quality in the squad, but odds are in my opinion favorizing them too much, therefore the Asian handicap +0,75 which means we lose only half of the stake if Bayern wins with 1 goal difference represents value to me.
BVB will miss Zagadou, Schulz and Reus.
Bayern will miss Süle, Thiago, Tolisso, Coutinho.
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Union Berlin v Augsburg
Betting suggestion:
- Augsburg +0,5 @1,81 Pinnacle
Short preview: We have already been there, backing Augbusrg away from home and I suggest doing it once again. In the last round of Bundesliga, Augsburg had Borussia Dortmund on the knees, but then “Halland happened” and BVB ended winning 3-5. One round earlier they were defeated in Leipzig, but that just shows us that they had two very difficult opponents to play against. Before those two matches, they were unbeaten for 5 rounds and against Union they can, in my opinion, re-start the unbeaten period once again. While Iago is away with Brazil, the coach Martin Schmidt will be able to count on midfielder Löwen who joined from Hertha, and striker Finnbogasson and defender Lichtsteiner who are fit after being out due to injuries. Union Berlin is coming in this match after three losses in a row. First, they lost again Hoffenheim at home (0-2), and then against poor Dusseldorf away (2-1) and Leipzig with the same result as Augsburg. Anyways, I can not see why are bookies favorizing the home side that much and it seems much more like 50/50 clash to me. Therefore I see value on the away side.
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Wolverhampton v Newcastle
Betting suggestion:
- Wolverhampton -1 @1,85 Pinnacle
Short preview: Here I am not going that much on Wolves like I am going against Newcastle. There is a complete mess with injuries in their team as they are without Manquillo, Shelvey, Schar, Saint-Maximin, Lascelles, Colback, while defenders Lewis and Hanley are doubtful due to illness. Wolverhampton on the other side is without Jota and Boly but without any other problems. After the huge win over Man City, Wolverhampton failed to win in three consecutive matches - losing against Liverpool and Watford and playing a goalless draw with Manchester United in the FA Cup. Newcastle on the other side lost last three Premier League matches (Man United, Everton, Leicester City) with goal difference 9-2 and played 1-1 in FA Cup against the 18th placed team of the third league - Rochdale. All, after all, the advantage of the home pitch, the advantage of the simply better situation with injuries, plus the fact that Wolverhampton simply is the side which posses more quality, I expect all three points to stay at the Molineux Stadium.
Tottenham v Liverpool
Betting suggestion:
- Liverpool -0.5 @1,74 Pinnacle
- Liverpool -1 @2,28 Pinnacle
Short preview: Primary selection is to take the Reds with the straight win, but as the odds dropped even under 1,7 at some bookmakers, I suggest to simply go with the -1 handicap. At the moment, Spurs have simply too many problems as Mourinho can not count on the first goalkeeper Lloris, defensive midfielders Sissoko and Ndombele, defender Ben Davies and the captain and by far the most important player in attack Harry Kane who will be most likely out until early April. Moreover, Rose and Winks aren't fully fit. Liverpool is coming without some players as well, but from the strongest 11, they miss only Fabinho. I suppose he will include Oxlade Chamberlain in the first lineup, which means they will have another prolific midfielder and Tottenham will really need to be at their best to take something out of this match. In the last five matches, Liverpool have always scored at least two goals and I think nothing will really change today.
Leicester v Southampton
Betting suggestion:
- Leicester -0,5 @1,68 Pinnacle
Short preview: There were some questions over the injury status of Vardy and Maddison but as it looks, both will start today's match against Southampton. The Saints are in an exceptional form lately, as they are unbeaten for 5 consecutive matches. They've beaten Aston Villa and Chelsea away, and Tottenham and Huddersfield at home, while they shared points with Crystal Palace after 1-1 draw at home. Anyways, today's match will be completely different as they will face a very tough opponent, a team who is well deservedly sitting on the second place of Premier League, playing attractive football, scoring plenty of goals and defending pretty decently this season. With 46 goals scored and 19 goals conceded, they have 3rd best attack and 2nd best defense of the league. With last 5 matches, they ruin their run a bit, as they lost twice and play draw once, but defeats were against Liverpool and Manchester City, while the important thing is that they have returned back to the "winning roads" and won against West Ham and Newcastle - both away. The draw against Aston Villa could have finished completely different as Leicester was by far the better opponent in the match, but that's football. Today against Southampton I don't expect an easy match for The Foxes, but I do expect them to win it. Solid options for those for who 1,68 isn't high enough are also with Leicester and under 3,5 or 4,5 goals.
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Dortmund v Leipzig
Betting suggestion:
- over 3,25 @1,869 Pinnacle
- both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,70 Pinnacle
Short preview: Without any doubt, the most interesting match tonight. Clash of current league leaders of Leipzig who will be hosted on Signal-Iduna-Park by Borussia Dortmund. Recent results of both teams Dortmund: 4-0L, 3-3, 1-2W, 5-0W, 0-4W and Leipzig: 2-2, 2-3W, 3-1W, 2-2, 0-3W are clearly pointing on over here. Where it gets tricky from the statistical point of view is the fact that Leipzig has the 2nd best defense in the league with only 16 goals conceded in 15 rounds. Dortmund on the other hand only 3 more, which means neither of those two sides is conceding a lot, but as mentioned yesterday for the Cagliari-Lazio match – for both sides we can firstly stress out their offensive strength as they scored 37 and 42 goals so far in the competition. Favre will miss Witsel, Delaney, and Schmelzer, while Nagelsmann is still without defenders Orban and Konate, and midfielder Kampl who is once again on the injury list. Honestly, I think that Bulls are coming into this match in a slightly better form, and even though they miss their captain Orban, the defensive pair Upamecano-Klostermann works pretty fine. Their front part, with Werner, Sabitzer, Forsberg, and Poulsen looks really scary (first three mentioned, scored 26 goals! However I turn this match, I think both teams are strong enough to take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses and I believe we will see goals here… Looking for a winner here, I might even try with direct Leipzig win with odds above 3,25.
Augsburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf
Betting suggestion:
- Augsburg -0.5 @1,87 Pinnacle
Short preview: The away side is coming with some worries as the top goal scorer Hennings is doubtful for the match. Besides him, they won’t be able to count on the standard defender Bodzek, while Karaman, Suttner, and Stöger are on the injury list as well. Augsburg on the other side is still without Finnbogason, but the coach Schmidt can still count on all players who participated in the last 5 matches, where Augsburg have beaten Paderborn and Hoffenheim away, Herta and Mainz at home and played 1-1 draw in Köln. The completely different atmosphere is in the locker room of Fortuna, who slipped to the 16th spot with recent defeats against Dortmund (5-0), and Leipzig (0-3). Truth is they played against some top sides lately, but even otherwise they lost 5 of 8 away matches so far. I think that it won’t be an easy match for Augsburg, but with the form they’re holding at the moment, I think that they will simply do what will be needed to book another three points.
- craigh and StevieDay1983
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2
Champions League Predictions > Aug 23rd
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Paris SG v Bayern München
Venue: Estadio da Luz
Time: 21:00
It’s completely unnecessary to make a presentation of those two teams as all the cards are practically on the table from both sides, therefore I will try to go deeper with thoughts on the betting perspective.
“Questions”
There are some questions over this match, but the key question is probably which team will start the game less cautious. With the importance of the match, I can not even imagine both teams starting as offensive as they are used too, but Hans-Dieter Flick, the coach of Bayern said in the press conference that they won’t change anything and will keep the high pressure from the first minute on. If they really keep the high pressure they definitely will have problems with PSG on a transition. Another question is also will Veratti start the match? If yes, PSG will have a strong figure in their midfield which will help a lot regarding the high pressure of Bayern and that changes plenty of things. Another question is how fit is Marco Verratti. Can he holds the high tempo for the whole match? So, while there are no bigger questions over the lineup of Bayern München, there are few for PSG. Besides Verratti, the unknown is also the position of the goalkeeper as Navas is 50/50. His experiences and qualities are unquestionable. There are plenty more questions
“Betting perspective”
I value experiences very highly in this competition, and therefore the favorite should be the German club. At the same time, that’s exactly what bookmakers are showing to us – 1,57 for Bayern to lift the trophy. I agree that they have an extremely solid season, that they destroyed Barcelona on the way to finals, but this will be a completely different match and if anything, I’d say that as usual, odds are forcing the favorite and I can not see any value on odds under 1,8 on Bayern to lift the trophy. Therefore, the value for me is on the other side: PSG +0,5 at 1,90 with Pinnacle, which covers also the possibility of extra-time.
Except that, with the offensive potential of both sides, we have to look at the option both to score & over 2,5 goals, but as it’s priced 1,526 I can not recommend it too much, even though I believe it will happen, I simply dislike those odds.
Interesting is to take a look at the line for cards. The referee will be Daniele Orsato, 44 years old highly rated referee from Italy, who regardless of the fact that he has shown more than 5 yellow cards only twice in last 10 matches, is the referee who doesn’t tolerate appeals and “trash talks” from players and we have plenty of strong personalities in this match, so I am not surprised to see the line at 5 cards and I suggest over 5 cards at 1,813 with Pinnacle (in case of exactly 5 cards, this bet will be voided). Another reason for the bet is the fact that both teams are capable of attacking very direct, very quick, with plenty of very pacy and skillful individuals. It’s happening often that those players are stopped with fouls.
The main suggestion is to wait and see the lineups. I will post final suggestions on twitter as soon as the lineups will be known.